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MOSAIC COMOSAIC COMOSAIC CO

MOSAIC CO

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02M trade ideas

$MOS at less than tangoble book value is a buyI think the chart tells the story: NYSE:MOS is trading at the lowest price to book multiple (see lower pane) since the pandemic, which was also the low point over the past 20 years. In addition, there's a buy signal from a AB=CD pattern visible on the chart. The symmetric triangle short play has in fact reached its T1 target and may be played out. In addition, the stock looks poised to break through its longer-term down trend. If that should happen, I think it will accelerate the upside. The reason for MOS' slump are simple enough: Soybean and corn prices are low, and those are primary uses for Mosaic's fertilizers. On the plus side, though, MOS has been building financial strength over the past years, and its new and ramping Esterhazy (K3) mine in Saskatachewan, Canada isn't just the largest potash mine in the world, it's also one of the lowest cost ones. Meanwhile, the company has curtailed production at its (higher cost) Colonsay mine, also in Saskatchewan. I think even without a recovery in fertilizer application (which will undoubtedly come), this setup promises higher margins for Mosaic. NYSE:MOS is cheaper than its fertilizer peers NYSE:CF and NYSE:NTR based on price/book or price/sales, and its forward P/E is in single digits -- far below the market. While I think that historically, the discount to peers was justified by MOS' inferior cost position, I would argue that the company has made strides to catch up. I plan to enter a long tomorrow. This will be a long-term hold, so no target or stop loss.
NYSE:MOSLong
by matthias
4
Stocks pairs trading: AGCO vs MOSIn the agriculture sector, AGCO Corporation (AGCO) and The Mosaic Company (MOS) are two significant players with differing growth prospects and performance metrics. Both have their unique merits and challenges, which offer an intriguing opportunity for a pairs trading strategy. The goal here is to capitalize on their differences and aim for a reversion to their historical performance relationship. Specifically, the strategy contemplates going long on AGCO and short on MOS. Why Go Long on AGCO: Valuation: AGCO has a P/E ratio of 7.63, which is higher than MOS's P/E of 5.59. However, AGCO's forward P/E remains the same at 7.63, offering stable prospects compared to MOS's forward P/E of 10.25, which signals a potential overvaluation. Profitability: AGCO has an impressive ROA of 10.45% and a strong ROE of 29.56%. In contrast, MOS's ROA and ROE stand at 9.20% and 17.96%, respectively. AGCO also boasts an EPS this year of 23.36%, which is promising for future profitability. Performance Metrics: Although AGCO has seen declines recently, it has a positive Perf Year of 5.95%, making it a candidate for a rebound. Why Short Mosaic Company (MOS): Valuation: Despite its low P/E of 5.59, MOS's forward P/E rises to 10.25. Coupled with declining performance metrics, this could indicate a potential overvaluation. Short Interest: MOS has a short float of 1.11%, which is low but not negligible, hinting at some level of negative sentiment that could substantiate a short position. Profitability: MOS's ROA of 9.20% and ROE of 17.96% are both lower than AGCO's. MOS also has a negative EPS this year of -63.84%, making it less appealing for a long position. Performance Metrics: MOS has experienced declines across the board in Perf Week, Perf Month, and Perf Quarter, reinforcing the short decision. Decision: Long on 1 AGCO Short on 3 MOS
NYSE:MOS
by joyny
MOS weekly Barchart.com has XLB (materials) as a strong buy, and I agree. Mosaic (fertilizers, potash), is at a nice support area with a double bottom and sitting just above POC on the weekly. It has a 17.2 % free cash flow yield (superb), piotroski score of 7 (excellent), 20% return on invested capital (good), 24 % ROE (good). Finbox models have a 43.7% upside. It may be a little overbought on the daily, and still in the ichimoku cloud, but it is nearing a rip. First major resistance at 49.31, and from Friday close at 40.22, that is 22.6 % upside.
NYSE:MOSLong
by UnknownUnicorn13101
6
use 40c exp in Aug to trade MOS to $42Mosaic is a $12 billion in sales fertilizer producer that is the world's largest integrated producer of phosphate (11% share), and the third largest global producer of potash (15% share). Mosaic markets its North-American based production throughout the world with distribution assets in 11 countries. The company was created by the October 22, 2004 merger of IMC Global and Cargill Crop Nutrition. Mosaic also has phosphate production JVs in Brazil, China and, most recently, Saudi Arabia. Quote from BoA on May 8 " Driven by an updated P and K price deck (which includes lower prices mainly for international benchmarks), our 2Q23 EBITDA goes to $784mmn from $1,014mn previously. Our 2023 estimate is now $3,204n from $3,8014mn. However, we now project higher EBITDA next year (~$3.3bn) driven by higher P and K volumes and Fertilizantes earnings. With earnings bottoming, we raise our 2023E EBITDA multiple to 7x from 6.5x. Our PO moves to $60 from $69. We continue to view MOS shares as inexpensive, trading near 5x BofAe EBITDA through 2025. We reiterate Buy!"
NYSE:MOSLong
by KhanhC.Hoang