ASMF trade ideas
ASML Bullish OutlookShort-Term Drivers:
Stock Performance: Shares have risen 13.89%, from $655 on November 21 to $746, signaling strong bullish momentum.
Analyst Confidence: 'Moderate Buy' ratings with a $943.83 price target (32% upside); BNP Paribas targets $858.
Options Activity: Elevated call options volume reflects growing investor confidence.
Long-Term Drivers:
Growth Projections: Revenue forecast of €44-€60 billion by 2030, driven by AI-driven chip demand.
AI Expansion: AI-related chips expected to dominate 40% of the chip market, boosting demand for ASML's cutting-edge tools.
Technological Leadership: Dominance in EUV lithography systems ensures a critical role in next-gen chip manufacturing.
Technical Analysis:
ASML bounced strongly from a key support level at $655 on November 21, rallying 13.89% to $746. This rebound confirms the long-term uptrend and highlights growing bullish momentum. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has started reversing to the upside, signaling further potential for price appreciation.
Potential Price Targets:
TP1: $870 (Aligns with short-term analyst targets and reflects immediate upside potential).
TP2: $1,110 (Breaks into higher resistance zones with extended bullish momentum).
TP3: $1,300 (Long-term target supported by sustained growth and market dominance).
Why ASML is the Right Pick Now:
ASML's unique position as the sole supplier of EUV lithography machines, its strong innovation pipeline, and robust financials make it a standout choice. With bullish momentum, supported by technical and fundamental factors, the current price of $746 presents a strategic entry point with clear upside potential to key targets.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
ASML is finally about to MOVE! 65% UPSIDE🚨 H5 TRADE SETUP 🚨
Giving this one away for free and asking nothing in return! Lets get into the setup!
NASDAQ:ASML 🏭
As you can see on chart below we have a multitude of things to talk about! Lets talk about what we have currently and what we need for this to be a trade worth entering.
-Beginning of this year we had a multi-year cup&handle breakout that never got to it's realized measured move of $1,124 before we had a pullback the measured time for this breakout is Jan2026 so basically 2025 we should realize that measured move. With the pullback we had we over compensated and broke through the support turning it back to resistance in which we now need to breakout over again and flip it back into support before heading higher.
-We have now created a new charting pattern, a falling wedge pattern in which we have just broken out of this week if we hold into EOW. This has a measured move up to $1,182 with a mid-year timeframe of Aug2025.
-We have a massive AVP Volume Shelf with a subsequent GAP to fill up to $883. Price held at this massive shelf and it should be used as a launch mechanism to send us back to ATHs.
-We held right at the Anchored VWAP Lower band as well from our bottom in 2022.
Now that we know what we have out of the H5 setup let's talk about what we need in order to enter this trade and make some gains!
-We need the H5 indicator to flip GREEN (Which it is very close to doing and could by EOW! Also, we want the H5 to cross through the yellow smoothing line as well.
-We need our Wr% to break up above at least -40, preferably -20.
-Finally, we want to see a break above $747
This is a long write up but I wanted to be thorough and fully explain the gameplan friends. This is still not a trade yet but it is a H5 setup that is getting close to a GREEN LIGHT!
🔜🎯$883
🎯$1,124 ⏲️Aug2025
🎯$1,182 ⏲️Feb2026
Not Financial Advice
ASML Holding | ASML | Long at $680.00NASDAQ:ASML Holding, a developer and servicer of advanced semiconductor equipment systems for chipmakers, dipped backed into my overall, long-term selected simple moving average (SMA). From here, stocks typically bounce or drop, but given the AI boom is far from "over", I anticipate another bounce to eventually close the gap near $1,060. It may show some minor weakness to close the gap in the low $600s and get the bears excited. But, unless the economy further shows major weakness in the semiconductor space, NASDAQ:ASML is in my personal "buy zone" at $680.
Target #1 = $730.00
Target #2 = $915.00
Target #3 = $1,060.00
ASML RISING: Weekly MACD cross up, daily EMA 34/20 cross up.After a clear double bottom AND ASML being the MOST OVERSOLD EVER in the history of this stock, we have a nice +/- 10% upside opportunity on the swing up, with very attractive risk reward ratio (depending on where you anchor your stops but I leave that to you).
Daily chart has showed us a lot of bullish divergence over the past weeks and it's clear traders have been loading up on cheap ASML shares while this unique opportunity presented itself and this has slowly exhausted the sellers over the past month, making it ripe for a jump.
ASML is ready for a major run up. What I like about this setup is that even if I am wrong about the mid-long term of this move. I capitalize on the short term momentum of the move with minimal exposure to risk.
This stock is volatile and I take that into consideration when trading it.
I am no expert and none of this is advice, just sharing how I see things, trade at your own risk.
Wish you good luck and good fortune!
ASML range bound in from 620 to 670. ASML has biggest volume at range 645 to 665. I posit that until ASML can break 675 we won't see the next level. Given the news that Biden won't levy strict tarrifs on TSMC, this is positive for ASML as well and I think in December we will see ASMl go above 700. Let's wait for the reversal confirmation though.
Going Long on ASMLOversold on monthly chart. Seeing buy opportunity here. Fib 0.618 and MA50 supporting the sp resulting a 2 months bounce here.
ASML BullishASML's technical outlook is bullish, with the first target at $750.
1.The price is supported by the 200-day moving average.
2.It is breaking out of a converging triangle pattern formed during the pullback.
3.A double bottom has formed on the daily chart.
TP:750/850/1000
$ASML to $1300 by the end of 2025- Whenever NASDAQ:ASML weekly chart touches 200 SMA, it tends to retrace up to 100% from that low.
- This company has huge moat and beaten down because of tariff fears.
A company like no other is in saleI expect a bullish momentum to about 860 Before mid januari.
After that we need to see what the economy does. Either up or further down.
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ASML Pull Back FishingI really like the chart here. On the monthly/weekly charts you can see where ASML has pulled back before to the red DMA, the Fibbo retracement also hits at the $648 level where it bounced, and previous S/R looks to be in this area. It bounced from there and is now going up again. Longer term B&H.
ASML probably hasn't bottomed yetThe ASML bounce looks tempting but i'm exprecting another thrust down. I've been buying around the mid-600s and long term this is still a good price to be avg in, but just keep in mind it may not have found bottom. All the other recent bottoms have tested the lower bollinger bands, i think this will play out similar.
easy play on ASMLI’ve been closely monitoring the monthly chart of ASML Holding (Euronext) and have identified a compelling setup that aligns with my long-term strategy. Previously, I shared an idea on TradingView with an ambitious $1200 price target, based on the stock’s strong long-term uptrend and solid fundamentals. However, upon further analysis, I’ve identified an internal trendline, which provides additional clarity and reinforces my bullish outlook. Interestingly, a similar internal trendline has been observed in other stocks like Super Micro Computer, further validating this structure.
Technical Analysis:
Primary Uptrend:
ASML is in a well-established long-term uptrend, confirmed by the primary ascending trendline connecting historical lows since 2012. This line showcases the structural strength of the stock and consistent investor confidence.
Internal Trendline Confirmation:
The recently identified internal trendline connects intermediate lows formed during price retracements, indicating a temporary slowdown in growth while maintaining an overall bullish structure.
This internal trendline has previously acted as dynamic support, suggesting it may serve as a critical reference point for future price action.
Key Price Levels:
The current price (631.5 EUR) sits near a confluence zone between horizontal support and the internal trendline. This presents a strong entry point for a long position with an attractive risk/reward ratio.
Significant support has been identified around the 600 EUR level, reinforcing my confidence in a potential price rebound.
Long-Term Price Target:
My long-term price target remains at $1200, which I believe is achievable as the stock continues to respect its bullish trend. This target aligns with ASML’s historical growth trajectory and the robust potential of the tech sector.
Entry Timing:
The recent bounce off the internal trendline and the +1.66% daily gain signal positive accumulation and increased buying interest. I plan to go long now, taking advantage of the dynamic support, with a stop loss set just below 590 EUR to manage risk effectively.
ASML Holding offers a compelling investment opportunity, supported by a solid technical structure and clear bullish potential. The internal trendline, combined with horizontal support and the broader long-term uptrend, strengthens my confidence in entering a long position. With a $1200 target and a well-defined risk management plan, I believe this is the right time to position for the next leg up in this stock.
asml head n shoulders bottom in actlook the chart, as i said 15 days ago , in a comment on asml, is forming an head n shoulders bottom reversal, in 1d chart, driving the AI power for ASML that has a total supreme monopoly in chip, for the next generation of advanced AI drive CHIPS.
ASML: A Key Player in Semiconductors- attractive risk/rewardASML Holding is a critically important company in the semiconductor industry because its components are used in the production of most semiconductors globally. Their unique technology gives them a strong position in the market.
Looking at the price action, the stock was trading around $700 back in April 2021 when the company had $5.25 billion in revenue and an EPS of $3.86. Fast forward to October 2024, revenue increased to $8.14 billion (a 55% increase), and EPS grew to $5.75 (a 49% increase).
Despite this significant growth, the stock is down over 35% from its highs of $1,100 set this July.
To me, this presents an excellent risk-reward opportunity, and I’m in at $688.
ASML Wedge BreakoutFor the market to continue its upward trajectory,
the semiconductor sector needs to show strength,
with ASML playing a critical role it needs to go higher,
After a period of consolidation, ASML forming a wedge breakout pattern,
Worth a try.
ASML is no longer bullish🔴 ASML is no longer bullish
EURONEXT:ASML is one of the most interesting companies in Europe by far, but recently has broken a very large trendline meaning that at least, we are moving to a NEUTRAL or BEARISH market.
✅ What pattern is unfolding in EURONEXT:ASML ?
The pattern is one of the simplest that exist. A simple trendline, but look, is a very large trendline of more than 5 years and multiple touches. Breaking this kind of pattern is a major signal that you can't avoid.
💰 How to trade this chart pattern?
Once the trendline is broken, you can trade in any pullback or any new low done, searching for the upcoming bear market. Take care with longs here, you are probably seen a dead bounce cat.
✴️ ENJOY AND FOLLOW for more ideas 😊
Poised for a breakout to mid 700 oversold and consolidatingThe stochastic and rsi are on an uptrend halfway; there are signs of a squeeze from the Keltner and Bollinger, a sideway pattern pursuing a pattern close to its breakout. Target 760
ASML Trade Idea: Riding the Uptrend with CautionAfter some time away, I’m back with a fresh ASML setup. I’ll keep this analysis simple and focus on the key points.
Market Structure and Trend Analysis
ASML remains in a strong uptrend on higher timeframes, although there has been a Change of Character (CHOCH) on the shorter-term trend, indicating a corrective phase.
This recent pullback looks like a corrective pattern within the larger monthly uptrend, potentially offering a buying opportunity if the main trend resumes.
Technical Overview
The price has tested the trendline for the third time and briefly dropped below it, which could attract short sellers and create liquidity for larger players.
I’m eyeing the -27% Fibonacci extension as a full-wave target for this setup, but I plan to take partial profits along the way, starting with 25% at a 1:3 risk-to-reward ratio.
Risk Management and Seasonal Insights
I’m risking 1% of my account on this trade, maintaining a conservative approach.
Additionally, we’re currently in the “Halloween Effect” period, where the market often performs well from October through December, providing a seasonal tailwind.
Fundamental Context
Recent negative news around ASML may create a bearish narrative that could mislead retail traders. I interpret this as a buying opportunity, aligning with the overall bullish trend and offering a favorable risk-to-reward setup.
ASML a good deal?Negative earnings were leaked, insiders sold before the news was released. It’s clear not everyone plays the game by the rules. So trade carefully in this volatile market.
I posted an idea on the SPX looking like it’s topping out. But certain stocks present buy opportunities as they may go one wave higher. ASML is one of them.
We just entered a buy zone area for me, I will be laddering in.
We failed to break out of the RSI downtrend but I expect it to break out on the next attempt. I believe we are in a fourth wave correction of a larger 5 wave move up. If the diagonal trend line doesn’t hold as support, or the Fibonacci golden pocket retracement level, consider getting out to protect capital as risk management is important in this Wild West market.
Not financial advise
Incoming 60% correction for ASML HoldingOn the above weekly chart price action has seen a strong 200% upward move since 2022. No doubt a move in part caused by the AI mania.
Is now a good time to buy?
Seeking alpha says “Buy the dip”
“ASML has returned to growth after revenue declines, with flat revenue expected for 2024 and growth anticipated in 2025, driven by new EUV tools.”
“Despite a 53% QoQ drop in net bookings, ASML's backlog remains strong at €36B, supporting a revised 2025 revenue outlook of €30-35B.”
A quick Google leads to no shortage of “buy the dip” articles. But then again, Google is not what it once was, with many paid for bias articles are evident.
The best News and outlook will always be the chart.
On the above weekly chart:
1) Price action and RSI support failures.
2) Broken market structure.
3) Look left, support and resistance, red arrows. The 2021 market top confirms resistance in October 2024. This is a significant warning.
4) The bear flag. It is has not yet confirmed, but a breakout is evident. A back test would be ideal, towards $800 area. The flag forecasts a 60% correction to support.
Is it possible price action continues to rise? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Type: trade, short from $800
ASML: A Key Moment to Take Advantage of Bearish SentimentCurrent Context
ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ: ASML) is at a critical juncture. Recently, its share price has fallen nearly 24%, driven by a downward revision to its 2025 sales projections largely because +20% of its sales were being generated by China and now the country has seen competitors replace its best-selling technologies. Sales are now expected to range between 30 and 35 billion euros, compared to the previous forecast of 30 to 40 billion. This revision is due to a slower recovery in its traditional markets, especially in logic chip production and limited production capacity in the memory sector.
Operational Analysis
Despite this pessimistic review, ASML's growth prospects remain robust. The company maintains a dominant position thanks to its monopoly in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography technology, crucial at a time when demand for advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment is on the rise, driven by artificial intelligence, 5G and digital transformation. Although relations with China have weakened thanks to European interventionist policies, ASML anticipates that growth in segments outside China will offset this decline. The growing need for advanced semiconductors is expected to continue to support its growth in the medium term.
Valuation Analysis
From a valuation standpoint, ASML presents itself as an attractive opportunity. It currently has an EV/sales ratio of 9.5, which is 18.9% below its five-year average. It is estimated that the company's value could increase 30% in the next 12 months, reaching approximately $360 billion, based on revenue projections of $36 billion by 2025. Furthermore, with a non-GAAP P/E of 34.5, which is also below its historical average, ASML appears undervalued compared to other industry players.
Technical Analysis
From a technical point of view the stock has been losing value since July 11. The last strong downward movement occurred on October 15, subsequently the downward pressure has kept the stock during the whole month and the beginning of November down. A bearish delta channel is visible and clearly marked by the POC price around €627 per share. This price retracement has caused the stock to reach December 2023 prices, prior to the Christmas rally. At the moment RSI is oversold at 32.49% so it is not strange if the firm's share price recovers value towards €753 which is the last delta pressure zone indicated in the next trading area.
Risks to Consider
However, not everything is positive. Geopolitical tensions between the US and China could significantly impact ASML's valuation. China accounts for more than 20% of the country's sales and it is a very high risk for the company to lose this major market because it is the market that can be a competitor with global suppliers and government support. The emergence of Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment (SMEE), which receives subsidies from the Chinese government, represents a long-term challenge. While these concerns may seem distant, it is essential not to underestimate their potential effect on the market.
Conclusion
Despite the risks, the combination of ASML's current valuation and its monopoly in EUV technology suggests that it is an appropriate time for investors to consider a position in this stock. With a solid growth outlook and favorable investment conditions, ASML is positioned as a strategic buy in a well-managed portfolio.
Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst
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