Anglo American PLC | ShortIf I'm analyzing a market, I always force myself to consider what the "other side" is thinking.
In other words, if my research suggests a buy, I take a good long look at the chart, fundamentals and the market in general and think about what the bears might be thinking.
I do this to try and ensure I don't miss anything. At least nothing glaringly obvious!
A couple of days ago I posted an AMS chart, which in many ways is similar to AGL.
And once again, I'm interested in the short side.
Now, if I was interested in a long, what would I be after?
Very simple answer when you look at this chart - if I wanted to buy, you wouldn't get me to place an order before 32600 at the very best. A buy here or anywhere before that is in no mans land, and if I were a long-term bull, like so many fund managers have to be, I want to buy at the best value that I can.
So, if there is no point in buying until 32600, I'm happy to short here instead.
AALL trade ideas
JSE:AGL Anglo American Buyers at Oversold LevelsAnglo has been trading in a well defined upward stride. After reaching the oversold line and yearly pivot point we have seen buyers step in as indicated by the increase in volume. There is also negative divergence with the volume RSI pointing to a continuation. Looking for the upward stride to continue.
AGL - Major Support BrokenWe may derive the following from the Weekly AGL chart:
1. Price has broken our major support (See linked idea).
2. Our next target is the trend support level.
3. Monitor price action and watch for further shorting potential.
4. As always - maintain your risk.
Note: The views provided herein do not constitute financial advice.
Anglo American - Bull run over?SELL – ANGLO AMERICAN (AAL)
Anglo American PLC is a mining company. The Company has a portfolio of mining operations and undeveloped resources with a focus on diamonds, copper, platinum group metals, and bulk commodities.
Fundamentals
Anglo American recently delivered an impressive set of half-year results, yet the share price has fallen significantly in recent days. The company underwent a radical restructuring plan in 2013 and this had paid of handsomely with the shares appreciating over 900% since the 2016 lows. The increased concern over trade wars between the US and China has impacted the share price considerably in recent days with the shares falling over 20%. This could be the start of a deeper correction.
Best Broker Target Price: 2900p (JP Morgan Cazenove 05/07/2019)
Worst Broker Target Price: 1200p (Liberum 28/02/2019)
Technical Analysis
Anglo American has moved sharply lower in recent weeks, breaking a key trend support line that has been in place June 2017. The horizontal support at 1870p has also given way following the gap lower on the week beginning 5th August 2019. This completed a double top formation and suggest further downside will be seen over the short to medium term. The targets are the 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% & 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels from the lows in 2017 to the highs in June 2019.
Recommendation: Sell between 1800-1900p
Stop: 2135p
Targets: 1625p, 1465p & 1240p
AGL - Support ApproachingWe may derive the following from the Weekly AGL chart:
1. Price has fallen as previously analysed (See linked idea).
2. Some profit can be taken.
3. A bid is most likely to occur at the support line (pink) - however a breakdown wouldn't surprise me.
4. Keep holding.
5. As always - maintain your risk.
Note: The views provided herein do not constitute financial advice.
JSE:AGL Anglo American Approaching OversoldAnglo American has been trading in a well-defined advancing channel (See the previous post following this advance below). Every time it has reached the oversold line there has been a spring type action and institutional buying indicated by volume increases. The difference with the previous occasions this occurred is that the volatility is greater and has occurred a shorter perioded of time after the previous event. So watch for a reaction from the oversold line on a lower timeframe but apply good risk management due to the volatility.