AMD trade ideas
AMD Wyckoff analysis Interesting market structure for AMD, we see different processed taking place within the trading range varying on either a distribution or accumulation
on a higher timeframe, we see accumulation for over a Year, however, on a lower timeframe, say 4 hrs, we're able to see even 3 accumulations
this example also covers what's inside a Spring on Phase C, which is simply a smaller accumulation
Advanced Micro Device Symmetrical Triangle Break/ Swing Hi guys this is a Technical Analysis on a Swing Trade opportunity for Micro Advanced Devices (AMD) on the 1 Day Timeframe.
Crruently, we are in the process of breaking out of the Upper trend line of the Symmetrical Triangle. Notice how we are coinciding with the previous candles WICK.
Now before taking any trades, make sure that the breakout is CONFIRMED. Which i will update on the confirmation.
If would be positive for this breakout if we test SUPPORT on this Upper trendline of the Triangle.
KEEP WATCH of FAKEOUTS, where we enter back into the triangle***
Our 1st Target = $125 - $132 range
Our next target and what i'd love to see is if we get ABOVE this range and act as SUPPORT on the "MAJOR RESISTANCE" line.
This MAJOR RESISTANCE line coincides with our TOP on Novemeber 2021.
Lets look at some more CLUE that will help strengthen this breakout in the INDICATORS:
RSI -> Notice how the RSI is coiling up in this range between the BLACK lines.
-> If we break above the UPPER line, this would indicate a trend change and will be a catalyst we need.
STOCH RSI -> Is showing a BULLISH CROSS. This would inject momentum into the breakout and help it move towards Target 1.
MACD => Is also showing that we have BULLISH momentum coming in, with the print of the GREEN histogram and BUllish cross inching towards the 0 level.
-> If we get above this 0 level with the cross, it will further the Bullish Momentum case.
TRADE IDEA:
STOP LOSS 5% below the Upper Trend Line of the Symmetrical Triangle
Scale in your buy orders
CONCLUSION:
We are in the process of breaking a Symmetrical Triangle which will require confirmation for validity. The first target is highlighted on the chart, with the best course of action being us breaking ABOVE the MAJOR RESISTANCE line and having it act as SUPPORT. Our indicators are either showing signs of a bullish case or is in the process of exhibiting such signs.
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again.
If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. When trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
AMD what's next? $114.68ishOk, the target from the short hit today, so I may as well keep playing this game with AMD. It's still bearish longer term it looks like, and so are the indexes it seems. But, there should be a small reprieve on Monday morning.
So, AMD and my handy tools suggest going up 6% (114.48 from current price), and price (a separate number) gives $114.68 (just thought I'd see how accurate I can get with the cents).
It's possible it'll go higher, I suppose, but the easier /moves/money is how this seems to work. That's it. I'll update anything new & have a lovely weekend.
AMD looking for 106 nextI had the 114 level in my last idea. Hit today. I get the next stop is 106 and "advice" is "new low". I do think the indexes tank from here based on other readings, and AMZN will instigate that. Still have to work on AAPL.
AMD to breakdown at overbought extremes?Advanced Micro Devices - 30d expiry - We look to Sell a break of 106.89 (stop at 114.09)
Daily signals for sentiment are at overbought extremes.
The lack of interest is a concern for bulls.
107.08 has been pivotal.
A break of bespoke support at 107, and the move lower is already underway.
Short-term momentum is bearish.
Our profit targets will be 88.89 and 85.89
Resistance: 113.80 / 119.00 / 122.12
Support: 107.08 / 103.50 / 100.00
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Bull pennant on the dailybull pennant formed on the daily chart. Looking for a breakout tomorrow or friday. Probably due to good news related to CPI and jobs.
AMD W shape #AMD W Shape.
#AMD created W shape with higher low.
If AMD can break 113.3$ next target will be 117.6$/118.9$
This W shape will be failure if #amd drop below 107.1$
Dead cat bounce?Looks like a dead cat bounce, I just bought some puts. If price hits the trendline I'll buy more. I hard to be accurate with this stock bc is very volatile. But the bearish patterns tell me that it pulls down every time it tries to climb up. Sellers just won't let it go higher.
Earn 18% While Waiting To Buy AMD At SupportHey guys! Today, we're looking at a Trade Idea in AMD, the popular semiconductor company that often plays second fiddle to Nvidia (NVDA).
Like most of our trade ideas, this post focuses on selling put options - this time, on AMD shares.
In case you're unfamiliar with options -> when you sell a put option, one of two things happens.
Either;
A.) The stock price finishes above the strike price of the put when the put expires, in which case you make money.
B.) The stock price finishes below the strike price of the put when the put expires, in which case you will be forced to buy the stock at the strike price.
With the trades we publish, if the stock goes up, sideways, or down a bit, you'll make money. If the stock goes down a lot, then you'll be forced to buy shares.
In other words- either make money, or buy the dip!
The trick is finding the right stock at the right time.
Right now, AMD seems like a great candidate for this strategy.
Selling the October 20th, 2023 $105 strike put options yields more than 18% on an annualized basis, and 105 is a decent support zone, as you can see on the chart above. This is also a popular pivot area if you zoom out further:
The stock has also been in a bullish uptrend, and the recent, flat price action is a solid consolidation that should be perfect for selling puts:
But what about fundamentals? All of this means scant little if you're forced to buy a stock that will go down over the long term.
Fortunately, AMD is growing its top-line sales and bottom-line profits at a steady pace on the back of increased demand for semiconductors:
While the company is diluting shareholders somewhat, the valuation, at only 8x sales, seems reasonable when compared with peers and to the company's own multiple historically.
Plus, the trade has a 76% chance of earning max profit by expiry.
Overall, we think selling the October 20th, 2023 $105 strike put options is a great win-win trade for income-seeking traders.
Cheers!
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AMD peak and valley vertical line time frame phase ideaI want to post a time frame analysis idea to get some constructive feedback, thoughts, and observations. Im new to trading, I'm on year two. I always look at the peaks and valleys of the market and think that buying 1-2 month options should be easily profitable. Im simply sticking vertical lines on the highs and lows and giving a general count of days between. THIS ONE IS DIFFICULT TO ENTER because AMD is in a choppy channel. A recent optimal entry was when it bounced off the 107 - 111 area. Will it retrace back off the immediate resistance to a better long entry? Or will it be off to the races, knowing AMD it is all possible?
AMD: advancing higher?An uptick in price above 114.00 is indicative of a potential bullish trend.
This trend direction is reinforced if the price breaks above the 121.00 threshold.
The target price is set at 129.00.
The stop-loss has been strategically set at 109.00 to manage the potential downside.
A volatility squeeze appears to be developing (see the lower panel).
Reward to risk 2.5 to 1.
AMD Still a buy as long as the 1D MA100 holds.Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is trading on its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), still within the 10 month, maintaining its buy status. As long as the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) holds, we will be long and target the 165.00 All Time High (ATH). If the price closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA100, we will take the loss and open a sell, targeting the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 95.00, on a potential contact with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) too, which is intact since March 02.
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Will $AMD gonna hit the trendline breakout? There are a few factors that could be contributing to the recent rise in AMD stock price. First, the company has been posting strong financial results. In its most recent earnings report, AMD reported revenue of $5.36 billion, which was up 62% year-over-year. The company also reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.57, which was well above analysts' expectations.
Second, AMD is benefiting from the strong demand for semiconductors. The global semiconductor market is expected to grow by 10% in 2023, and AMD is well-positioned to capitalize on this growth. The company is a leading supplier of microprocessors for gaming consoles, personal computers, and servers.
Finally, AMD is also benefiting from the recent sell-off in tech stocks. As tech stocks have declined in recent months, AMD has become more attractive to investors. The stock is currently trading at a relatively low valuation, and it has the potential to rebound in the near future.
Overall, the outlook for AMD stock is positive. The company is well-positioned to benefit from the strong demand for semiconductors, and it is trading at a relatively low valuation. Investors who are looking for exposure to the semiconductor market may want to consider investing in AMD stock.
KalaGhazi | AMDThey reported a great quarter yesterday, so he expected share to rally $6 today, but because of the Fitch downgrade of the U.S. economy (sovereign debt) and the big sell-off, AMD was down $8 instead. Does this make sense?
AMDPrice consolidated since my last analysis. Right now, price is trapped between 2 POIs. My expectations remained unchanged, if price wants to continue higher, we should see price taking out the lows at 107.08 first. If price takes the external liquidity at 122.12 first, price could potentially continue lower. Right now, price created relatively equal lows at 107.08, so this could potentially get taken out first.
Beautiful bullish set upPrice target $160+
I am very bullish on microchips and AMD in general. There is still a huge shortage in supply. I also hope general market behavior will be bullish.
It can be very nice play. I would get out of AMD only if the whole market change direction to downtrend.
Not financial advice.
AMD - Greed Doth Bad Habits BreedI've noticed that, especially in the last week, the trading community has really transformed into almost full bore greed. People are buying highs on almost anything, especially some of the most dubious of stocks, and getting rewarded with 5-15% gains every day.
There's even a popular post on here that asks "As new highs approach, what is the bear case?"
Whenever the climate is like this, you really, really have to take a step back and cool your head.
If we were in a sustained bull market like we had in 2021, greed may ostensibly be fair enough. But when the Fed rate is at 5.5 percent and there aren't going to be cuts, with 6% enroute before year end, and TBond yields acting like they want to court with 4.5% or 5%, you're sort of in the Twilight Zone right now.
If repricing to the downside really does occur, it's going to be fast and sudden.
AMD is the company that floundered, and hard, after losing the arms race to Intel for a lot of years. Then it hired a Chinese CEO, who flew over to the Chinese Communist Party's land and did some courtship, and then all of a sudden AMD was worth a lot of money, and has been for a while.
You have to really be very careful with anything connected to the CCP and China because of the geopolitical tensions between Xi Jinping and the International Rules Based Order.
All the yammering about "Taiwan" is about the IRBO looking to plant a man from Taiwan in Xi's seat when the CCP falls in the exceptionally near term future.
Yet Xi, a Chinese nationalist, can defend China's 5,000 year old Divinely-imparted culture, and himself, by weaponizing the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against Falun Gong that was launched by the Party and former Chairman Jiang Zemin on July 20, 1999.
If any of the above really transpires, please use your head: Beijing's noon is New York's midnight. Whatever happens in China is going to happen outside of NYSE/Nasdaq hours, which means those enchanted by greed are one day going to enjoy the bitter fruit of a brutal breakaway gap that never comes back.
So, AMD earnings are tomorrow post market. This is notable, because despite all the bull fever and delirium, I note that we really might be watching the markets top right now:
SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg
And if you take a look at a number of stock market calls I link below, you'll see there's a number of warning signals that are really worth considering, but still some pretty nice long opportunities.
So with AMD, what I'd like to point out as we head into earnings are two things:
1. The market makers left a goalpost at $133, based on the monthly. Price action absolutely does not have to take this point out, but since it counts as "resistance" to retail traders, it stands to reason it will go at some point
2. Price action since the late-June dump is NOT bullish. It is a classic markdown-and-sell-a-lot-more pattern that traps all the people who bought over $120 and have been comfortably numb averaging down.
On weekly charts, the red box is a place that price action is likely to return to, and the catalyst for this may very well be earnings.
There's really a precedent for this, with Taiwan Semiconductor, which I think is a very high likelihood long-term long even as markets sell off, because it's not a member of the Nasdaq or the SPX:
TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long Hedge
An important thing to note about TSM is that it's a very similar set up to AMD, but also a lot more bullish of a pattern, and yet it lost some 7% on earnings.
Earnings plays are very hard because the fundamentals don't matter. You get major gap repricing and have to pay a high premium for leverage or for puts/calls to boot.
Yet, a dump under $100 for AMD would likely be a real buying opportunity with a target over $135.
While you might find it too good to be true, May was already a $50/65% month for AMD.
Yet nobody wants to buy when there's big red. Instead, they want to buy on green and HODL, because you've been so perfectly conditioned, Pavloved, and trained by smart money.
Alternatively, if earnings were to raid $135, it may very well be the sell of the year.
Good luck. With the situation as it is, you should always ask yourself: "Are we really going to set new highs, or are we at the top of a bear market rally?"
AMD upside met. Now looking for $110-11This is pretty cool that I'm getting some consistency with the numbers on AMD. Typically, when a number is hit, (which had been 118 on my prior idea) we get a decent reversal.
My dowsing is suggesting a "breakdown". Like, it's given me that option every time I ask (3xs). Now, time frame can be an issue, but I do expect indexes to give it up after earnings later or the week, so AMD could have some decent downside.
I do get a potential for $107, but it might not be this week. $110 seems likely though.
Descending TriangleI could have sworn this was up at earnings on Tuesday afternoon or after hours yesterday. Now it is down.
Price hit the top line of this triangle which is a diagonal resistance level.
Descending triangles are neutral until broken. Top line slopes down (resistance) and the bottom line is virtually flat (support).
No recommendation.
One measure of intelligence is the ability to change.
AMD Share Price on the Rise After Financial Statement ReleasePositivity:
→ Advanced Micro Devices EPS of USD 58 cents (Wall Street Consensus = 57 cents);
→ Q2 revenue of USD 5.36 billion (Analysts expectation = USD 5.3 billion).
Negativity:
→ revenue from data centers decreased by 11% compared to the same period last year;
→ PC revenue fell 54% year-over-year: the pandemic is fading.
Particular attention of investors was attracted by the words of CEO Lisa Su regarding AI. According to her, by 2027 the market for artificial intelligence processors in data centers will exceed USD 150 billion. She also noted that in Q2, the company's AI business grew 7 times.
AMD's share price jumped up +3% after the report, which was published after the end of the main trading session. At the same time, the AMD stock chart shows mixed signals.
Bullish technical analysis arguments for AMD stock:
→ AMD share price continues to rise within the rising channel in 2023, acting significantly stronger than the S&P 500 stock market index;
→ AMD's USD 110 support level, originating from the May bullish gap, has confirmed its strength.
Bearish arguments:
→ After a jump related to reporting, the price decreases in the premarket. A long upper shadow is a sign that the first positive emotional reaction could be wrong;
→ AMD's share price is experiencing resistance near the USD 122 level, which originates from the low of the bear bar on June 13 (the day the NASDAQ exchange recorded the largest trading volumes for the spring-summer, which indicates selling pressure).
According to MarketWatch, the average target price for AMD shares is USD 137.50 — analysts are positive about the prospects, seeing the renewal of the historical maximum.
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