Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. - Short - long failed upward candleAs of 10 April 2024, AMD PE ratio is at 334. It had a long failed upward candle on 8 March 2024.
Downside till 95 dollars.
AMD trade ideas
AMD could hit 200 soonThe structure of NASDAQ:AMD offers the price to hit 200 soon, the path down seems to be a trap.
Looks stupid, but all good ideas do so. Cross fingers.
AMD Consolidation After being the best stock in the SnP AMD has been in a consolidation phase for 2024.
AMD Technical Analysis for Nov. 12, 2024Technical Analysis Breakdown:
Support and Resistance:
The price of AMD is currently testing resistance around the $152 level. A confirmed break above this level could trigger a strong move upward. The next key resistance is located at $156, and I'll be watching closely for price action around this zone. Immediate support is around $146, with a stronger support level near $140, which could provide a cushion if the price declines.
Indicators and Patterns:
RSI: The RSI is in a neutral zone, not showing overbought or oversold conditions. This indicates the potential for further movement in either direction depending on price action at resistance or support.
MACD: The MACD is currently signaling a mild bullish divergence, which suggests some strength in the recent uptrend. However, momentum is relatively low, so confirmation of a trend continuation would be ideal before entering a position.
EMA: Price is currently trading around the 9 EMA, which suggests a cautious stance in the short term. If it holds above this EMA, it may signal continuation of an uptrend, while a drop below could indicate a short-term downtrend.
Chart Pattern: The chart is showing a wedge pattern, indicating a potential breakout in either direction. A break above the upper boundary of the wedge could indicate bullish momentum, while a break below may signal bearish sentiment.
Trade Setup:
Entry: I’m looking to enter at around $152 on a confirmed breakout above this resistance or a bounce off the $146 support.
Stop Loss: A protective stop is set at $144, just below the $146 support, to minimize risk in case of a false breakout.
Target: First target is $156, with a second target at $160 based on previous highs and potential breakout continuation.
Risk/Reward:
This setup offers a favorable 2:1 risk/reward ratio. With a well-defined stop-loss and clear targets, this trade provides a solid opportunity for success while effectively managing risk.
Conclusion:
With AMD testing key resistance levels and indicators suggesting potential for a breakout, this setup looks promising for a bullish move if the price confirms a break above resistance. However, be cautious of false breakouts and monitor price action closely. Ensure sound risk management by using stop-losses and only risking a small portion of your capital.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is not financial advice. Please do your own research before making any trades. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
AMD - Is it the time? The price action and candle sticks giving some positive vibe here.
Long anywhere here
Target 1 - 160
Target 2 - 185
Target 3 - 200
Stop loss - 132
Eyes on AMD for Potential Breakout Above $151
AMD has seen notable fluctuations recently, experiencing a pullback while being
perceived as a robust alternative within the semiconductor sector. The company's
price action has been closely watched, particularly as it navigates through the
key support and resistance levels highlighted recently.
- AMD's recent performance shows resilience despite facing headwinds, showing a
span of highs and lows that suggests a consolidation phase. The stock has been
testing significant levels and has garnered investor interest due to its
potential in upcoming quarters. Friday's close indicates uncertainty after
rebounding from a recent pullback, yet it remains in a bullish structure,
outperforming some peers.
- Key actionable insights for AMD include watching for a breakout above the
critical resistance level of $150.98, which could signal renewed bullish
momentum. Consider a long position if this level is convincingly breached.
Conversely, if there is a rejection at this level or breaks below $145.30, it
could indicate potential weakness or a deeper consolidation.
- Sentiment analysis for AMD reveals a current sentiment score of 39.375,
significantly improved from -32.08 last week. The sentiment change of 71.46
signals growing optimism among investors, with a total of 9 mentions across
sources emphasizing AMD's relevance in current discussions.
- Expert opinions highlight AMD as a stock to watch, particularly its
positioning within the semiconductor market. Analysts note the critical nature
of resistance at $150.98 and the importance of monitoring Nvidia's performance,
as it may influence AMD's trajectory.
- Based on the wisdom of all professional traders, the short-term targets for
AMD are set at:
Target 1: $150.98
Target 2: $162
Stop 1: $145.30
Stop 2: $138
Should AMD sustain above $150.98, a longer-term target of $162 could be realized
within the next few weeks, contingent on broader market conditions.
- Notable news affecting AMD includes ongoing developments in the semiconductor
industry, where AMD continues to innovate in product releases. The company
remains competitive in the market with its graphics processing units and
processors, while broader sector trends indicate continued demand, particularly
in cloud computing and gaming.
AMD Long Swing
AMD is setting up well for a long entry. On the 2-day candle, AMD is holding within an ascending pattern, forming a bottom near an upward trendline as well as the 200-day moving average, signaling potential support. The setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, with the first price target at 187.25 (~30% potential gain) and a second price target around 227 (~56% potential gain). A stop loss can be considered if a 2-day candle closes within the lower demand zone (around 132, as highlighted), with the overall bullish uptrend invalidated on a close below ~121.
AMDFrom a technical point of view, AMD is currently positioned in a favorable Fibonacci retracement zone, presenting a strong technical structure. This analysis focuses solely on technical indicators, with no fundamental analysis included.
AMD Doji on the hourlyGreetings
AMD has a doji candle on bottom of an upward parallel channel on the hour chart which could possibly mean a reversal.
Aslo even though it is quite subjective it could be forming a high and tight flag.
Negatives- it can consolidate further or have a breakout to the downside.
Possible 12M levels for the AMDAMD needs to close near or above the 12M inside bar to be positive for the next year ,tried a bo of the level but failed and fell back inside the range ,will share some other patterns in the below comment section, also the monthly and weekly levels , it seems to forming a doji in 12M tf
Not sure about this one, but I just went longI had this 265 day cycle charted since June was speculating if it would play out. Everything is in full send Euphoria mode so I think we get at least a reclaim of the ATH from here.
AMD charging up???Many thanks to @ProjectSyndicate for bringing up this Asset very smart person, everybody check his analysises. Here we have AMD on the day chart it has healthy SRSI and RSI levels and it is looking like it may possibly cycle up from the bottom upward parallel channel. It currently has a green candle on the golden zone in the Fibonacci.
Can AMD hit 240 USD in Q1 2025? 100% BUY/HOLD for the bulls.🔸Time to update the AMD trade setup, this is a speculative bull flag
with pole setup in progress, with 100% upside potential.
🔸AMD massively trailing behind NVDA entire year in 2024, expecting
AMD to catch up next few months. Currently price action compressing
withing bull flag, based on measured move projection expecting price
target is 240 USD, so this 100% upside from the entry price for the bulls.
🔸Recommended strategy bulls: expecting pullback to complete near 120 USD in December going into holiday seasons, limited downside beyond 120 USD. BUY/HOLD near 120 TP bulls is 240 USD, which is 100% upside. Expecting target to get hit in Q1 2025. good luck traders.
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2 Bullish Scenarios on AMD!🔉Sound on!🔉
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AMD Stock: Poised for an Upward TrendBased on the current technical analysis of AMD's stock, there are several indicators suggesting that it is at a favorable price and poised for an upward trend.
Key Points:
Volume Profile: AMD's stock price is currently below the Volume Profile on the daily chart, indicating that it is trading at a relatively lower price compared to its recent trading range.
Historical Trend Line: The stock is approaching its historical trend line, which often acts as a support level. A bounce off this trend line could signal a continuation of the upward trend.
Ichimoku Cloud: The price is currently within the Ichimoku Cloud, which indicates a period of consolidation and potential for a breakout. A move above the cloud could signal the start of a bullish trend.
Conclusion:
Considering the above factors, AMD's stock appears to be at a good price and is likely to continue its upward trend. The combination of technical indicators and the approach to key levels provides a strong case for potential growth.
"Buy the Breakout!"As seen from past data, when NASDAQ:AMD has broken out of its wedge, it leads to another move down before more upside.
Could this time be different?
AMD scenarioToday we are in a distinctly upward trend, we set a high and now we are correcting in a corrective way to the 0.5 areas of the trend (Fibonacci) + to interesting liquidity areas.
In my opinion, we will receive a continuation of declines according to the scenario I drew - in my estimation, the distribution of dividends at the beginning of 2025 will bring in smart money - we will receive a decline into buying and then we will begin to build long-term positions up to an all-time high.
My last resort for a bull caseI admit the earnings reaction was a bit of a surprise to me, but I'm only writing this because I was in denial of the technical signs I clearly saw. The Oct 9 - Oct 23 leg down was in five waves, so I should've anticipated that upon the earnings, we will move down - the move up in the days prior to the earnings was in three and retraced to the 61.8 - 78.6% zone.
Right now, I am leaning towards a $100 price target, I give it about 90% chance. However, I am giving it a tiny chance that the set of threes which have been printing since the March 8 ATH is forming an ABCDE triangle. If so, the local low is in and we move higher from here.
AMD’s Earnings Stumble | A Golden Opportunity for Investors?Post Earnings Dip, Is AMD ready for a 2025 Comeback?
Shares of Advanced Micro Devices dropped over 10% after releasing its third quarter FY2024 earnings report, which fell short of investors’ expectations. Although the results were not poor, the market had high hopes given AMD's premium stock valuation. The company did surpass revenue projections, but its non GAAP EPS matched market expectations plus the midpoint of its fourth-quarter revenue forecast slightly missed estimates.
In my prior analysis, I upgraded AMD from a sell to a buy after a 20% dip, which realigned market expectations. Since that upgrade, the stock has climbed 15%, outperforming the S&P 500 Index by 9%. The recent earnings-driven decline has brought AMD's stock price close to my previously mentioned level.
While the gaming segment saw a sharper decline in revenue in 3Q, the Data Center GPU division continued to exhibit strong growth, boosting overall revenue growth and improving margins. I believe AMD is still in a strong position to further accelerate revenue growth and margin expansion in the fourth quarter and beyond. As a result, I see the post-earnings dip as a buying opportunity and maintain my buy rating on the stock, supported by its anticipated growth phase justifying its premium valuation.
For 4Q FY2024, AMD projects 21.6% YoY revenue growth at the midpoint of its guidance, with a $300 million potential variance. This growth is expected to be driven by continued expansion in Data Center GPUs. Although the midpoint guidance is slightly below market consensus, I believe AMD could exceed this number, given its track record. My estimate suggests a 24% YoY revenue increase, or $150 million above the midpoint.
3Q EPS Analysis Shows Margin Pressure
AMD has shown consistent margin improvement since 4Q FY2023, though the pace in 3Q didn't meet expectations. EPS aligned with estimates despite revenue exceeding forecasts, indicating margin challenges. Non-GAAP gross margin rose by 50 bps sequentially, while non-GAAP EBIT margin showed strong improvement, rising by 350 bps QoQ.
AMD forecasts a 4Q non-GAAP gross margin of 54% and operating expenses of $2.05 billion, driven by a favorable mix from its Data Center segment, which now represents 52% of total revenue. Management noted that gross margins in the Data Center segment are below the company average, focusing on customer needs and market growth for future gains. This contrasts with NVIDIA (NVDA), which reportedly has higher Data Center margins, though specific figures are not disclosed.
With a 4Q revenue consensus at $7.65 billion, AMD projects a non-GAAP EBIT margin of 27.2%, suggesting an additional 200 bps sequential increase. The company appears well-positioned for both revenue growth and margin improvement, despite its valuation declining after the recent stock pullback.
4Q EPS Outlook Signals Continued Growth
Although 3Q non-GAAP EPS met expectations, AMD’s growth accelerated from 18.1% YoY in 2Q to 32% in 3Q. However, the selloff post-earnings implies that investors anticipated even higher growth. Based on 4Q guidance, I estimate AMD’s non-GAAP EPS at $1.10, marking a 44% YoY increase.
AMD's FCF profile also improved, generating $496 million in 3Q, a 13% QoQ increase despite a one-time acquisition-related expense of $123 million. Higher capital expenditures are expected in FY2025 to support MI300 growth and maintain momentum.
Market Expectations and Valuation Impacts
Before the 10% post 3Q selloff, AMD’s EV/EBITDA TTM was higher than NVIDIA’s, but they are now on par, despite AMD’s margins and growth trailing NVIDIA's. AMD’s non-GAAP EV/EBITDA forward multiple is 46.3x, compared to NVIDIA’s 42.6x, and its forward P/E ratio is 50.4x, 17% above its 5-year average and higher than NVIDIA’s 49.7x.
While AMD's premium valuation can be justified given its growth acceleration, NVIDIA’s triple-digit EPS growth is not expected to continue. Moreover, NVIDIA’s gross margin recently declined, reinforcing the case for AMD’s valuation as it expands its growth in FY2025.
AMD’s stock has retraced to a 0% YTD return due to margin concerns and underperformance in Gaming and Embedded segments, though the latter is gradually recovering. However, the company’s strong Data Center gains and continued margin expansion indicate a solid growth phase. The recent selloff has recalibrated market expectations, and with ongoing AI-driven demand, AMD’s growth is likely to extend into FY2025, making the pullback an attractive buying opportunity.
What you think, Are you Moonish on AMD?
AMD Short IdeaAMD went from having a strong bull flag breakout to back down below the last retest of the descending channel. It's always even more bearish IMO if you have a fake out like this. We also have a shorter term bear flag break.
Will be looking for a break and retest of the primary uptrend below, or if it holds it could work as a long if it holds the $130-$132 area. I'd prefer to be bearish for now considering the recent fakeout and failure to hold previous support.
