AMD 3 Day Bear FlagI believe AMD has just completed a Bear Flag on the 3 day time frame and if it plays out then possible price targets would be $110-$115.
Share your thoughts.
AMD trade ideas
AMD Is it really as 'dead' as it looks?Advanced Micro Devices / AMD is down -45% since their March 2024 All Time High and the market appears to be quickly losing faith on the stock.
However, this is not the first time we've encountered such decline on this stock as the exact same Channel Down that had a drop of -42% also took place during the previous Bull Cycle.
In fact this is what we called the mid Bull Cycle accumulation Channel and as you see in both patterns, the 1week MA100 supported. On the 2017/18 case, it kickstarted a rebound to the 1.382 Fibonacci extension.
It is amazing to see that even the Bear Cycles that preceded those Channels (2022 and 2014/15), they declined by the same amount (-66.41%).
So for now the 1week MA100 is supporting the November-December consolidation and this is the 1nd time it has since the August 5th low.
Once the 1week RSI hits 38.00 again (like it did on March 26th 2018), it will be the ultimate time to buy again but being so close to it right now, you can start buying even now.
Target 350.00 (little under the 1.382 Fib).
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AMD Consolidation for Further UpsideAMD is currently consolidating after retest of its 2 years low at $133-135 level. While the AI and semiconductor is booming after strong labor and economic data, AMD is still with within its consolidation wedge as shown in the graph. If current tech trend continues with a strong Santa Claus rally, AMD is like to trend upwards to rest its resistance at the $150 level. We'd love to see a breakout to the $150 level and a further upside to the $175-185 resistance level is likely. Downside is limited to the $133 level. Given the current price at $140 level, the play could yield at R/R around 1:5. However, the trend is still forming and a breakout is not evident. We will need to further increase in MACD and RSI to help with the breakout.
Trading Strategy for AMD and QCOM1. Fibonacci Retracement:
AMD: The chart shows Fibonacci levels drawn from the recent peak to the trough. Key levels are around 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%.
Entry Points: Look for buying opportunities at the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels, which historically act as strong support zones where price often reverses.
Exit Points: Set targets around the 23.6% retracement level or the previous high, considering volume and momentum.
QCOM: Similar Fibonacci strategy applies. Identify retracement levels from recent highs to lows.
Entry: Buy at 38.2% or 50% if the price shows reversal patterns like bullish engulfing or hammer at these levels.
Exit: Aim for the 23.6% level or previous resistance zones.
2. Market Segment Analysis:
AMD: Given its position in the semiconductor industry, especially with advancements in AI and gaming, AMD's price movements can be influenced by tech sector trends, competitor news, and broader market sentiment towards tech stocks.
Strategy: Keep an eye on industry news, competitor earnings, and broader market indices like NASDAQ for correlation.
QCOM: As a key player in mobile technology and IoT, QCOM's stock can be influenced by mobile device sales cycles, 5G adoption rates, and regulatory news concerning its licensing model.
Strategy: Monitor global smartphone market trends, regulatory news, and advancements in 5G/6G technology for potential impact on stock price.
3. Risk Management:
Stop Losses: Place stop losses below the last significant low for long positions or above significant highs for shorts, adjusted for volatility.
Position Sizing: Ensure no single trade risks more than 1-2% of your total trading capital to manage risk effectively.
4. Integration with Other Tools:
Volume Analysis: Use volume spikes to confirm trend strength or potential reversals.
Earnings Reports: Both stocks are sensitive to earnings. Plan trades around these events, considering options for less risk if expecting volatility.
This strategy leverages technical analysis with Fibonacci retracement for entry/exit points, aligns with broader market trends, and considers segment-specific news for AMD and QCOM, aiming for a balanced approach between technical precision and fundamental awareness.
AMD - long position (1D)Hi traders,
Long position on AMD (1D), based on the trend reversal suggested by the Williams Alligator. We backtested this strategy in the last year, entering long or short only when the price closed above (for long) and under (for short) the line of the teeth (red line). When this happened there was usually a crossing of the lines of the indicator. We put our take profit where the price hit a support/resistance or when a candle closed under the red line (close long position) or above the red line (close short position). We put our stop loss at the level of the resistance/support or when, after the crossing of the lines of the Alligator, a candle closed under the red line (for long position, closing with a loss) or above the red line (for short position, closing with a loss). This strategy gave a return of 16.5% since January 2024.
In this case the stop loss will be few cents under the support level and the take profit will be at the level of the previous resistance. In any case we should close our position if the price will close under the red line.
Good luck!
Be careful with AMD !!!In my opinion, the shares of this company are 14.5% overvalued and should reach a price of $137. The reason for the recent decline in AMD shares is due to cautious statements at Morgan Stanley. Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) shares fell more than 3% on Tuesday following cautious comments from Morgan Stanley, highlighting concerns over the company's AI supply chain strategy.
Analysts noted that AMD appears to have reduced its wafer bookings for MI325 at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) for 2025 due to uncertainty over MI325 demand. Morgan Stanley stated, 'It appears that AMD has reduced some of its CoWoS wafer bookings at TSMC for 2025 due to uncertainty over MI325 demand. This move indicates AMD's conservative approach to managing potential demand volatility for its AI processors.'
However, Morgan Stanley analysts added that Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) quickly absorbed the vacated capacity at TSMC, emphasizing Nvidia's aggressive positioning in the AI market.
The bank's note also provides insight into broader trends in the semiconductor industry, indicating that other companies are ramping up production. For instance, Marvell (NASDAQ:MRVL) tripled its CoWoS bookings for 2025 compared to 2024. Meanwhile, Intel's Habana division kept its wafer bookings at TSMC unchanged, indicating stability in its AI-related production.
The cautious tone from analysts on AMD follows a period of intense competition in the AI space, with Nvidia strengthening its leadership. The note also mentions that 'WPG's sales in the third quarter grew 25% quarter-over-quarter, compared to previous guidance of only 5.5% quarter-over-quarter growth,' with the bank noting 'increased business from AMD processors and GPUs.
AMD Long Idea: Bullish Chips SetupsOur strategy is a confidential mix of TA and FA. It is to be noted that this trade is a bullish setup from both TA & FA setups independently.
Refer to our social links in our profile for more trade setups.
$160+ END OF YEAR PRICE! GET READY FOR BIG UPWARD MOVE!🚀 AMD TO $160+ BY YEAR-END 🚀 The AI chip king is set to dominate with MASSIVE growth and unmatched innovation 🌟🔥 Buckle up for the rocket ride! 📈💰
$AMD Bounce off weekly support can lead to a push?AMD bounced off weekly wedge support and is nearing November's wedge resistance.
Looking for a break above the resistance to target $148.63 - $151.39.
Bullish on monthly chart If you have patient, this could be the turn around story. Consider leap option 1 year out.
$AMD - double bottom break out. $143 needs to breakAMD - Stock about to break $143 resistance level. watching here for breakout. Above $143 we can see $147 and $150. Stock is gaining strength on indicators. Stock formed double bottom pattern on $133 level. looking for a bounce here.
AMD Bullish Inverse Head & Shoulder SetupSummary: AMD has been in a multi week (beginning 11/12) inverse head & shoulders pattern that formed within a broader descending channel. There is very little selling pressure on the current test of inverse H&S neckline (142.9) and trendline resistance so I would expect a small, low volume pullback before we get a breakout above the neckline and full reversal. In addition to this, AMD just broke above the 20d SMA and in previous reversal crossovers this year, they were followed by significant uptrends (see Aug’24 and Sep’24 for reference). Bullish Thesis is valid unless the right shoulder fails to form; my preference would be a small right shoulder forming above 139.7 buy zone.
Trade Plan: Day trade or swing calls on a break above 142.9 with expectations of bullish run to 145 & 148. Stop loss would be 20% or failed breakout and loss of 140.9. I will likely be looking for 2-3 week expirations and 145C.
Risk vs Reward: +$5 upside, -$2 downside (2.5:1)
Another Tech Stock Rally?AMD with a potential to break up as evidence by a hidden bullish structure (refer to vertical orange lines and RSI). Large frames are showing nice higher lows, which are constructive for anyone who is long on this stock. There is also a gap at $150 - $160, so conservative swing traders may consider this area, while other longs should find confidence in this stock for the long term. Also on my watch list are NVDA, SNOW, and TSM.
AMD multiple lows in the same areaIt seems like AMD gets supported around 135-137 area. Seeking to take a bullish position here and ride it for a longer term.
AMD to the upside? 🔉Sound on!🔉
Thank you as always for watching my videos. I hope that you learned something very educational! Please feel free to like, share, and comment on this post. Remember only risk what you are willing to lose. Trading is very risky but it can change your life!
Is AMD gonna beat the next earning report? AMD is having a rough time with the stock. Next earning report is the key for a probable rise.
150 clear from the reset levels and finds support hereThe only average still unclear to me is the moving average 100/200. Otherwise, key indicators have started to move again after a turbulent November finish, and we should see a better December. Our target is 150. Stochastic, RSI MACD crossover flat but waiting to see an upward move in direction.
AMD Harmonic Elliott Wave and Hurst Cyclic AnalysisIt’s been a while since my last update on AMD. Looking at the wave structure, I believe we are currently in a complex pullback, correcting the bullish move from October 2022 to March 2024. This correction appears to be a double zigzag, and we’re in the process of completing wave A of the second zigzag (labeled 'y').
Analyzing the cycles, we can see that the trough from October 2023 aligns with an 80-week (80W) cycle trough and the trough in August 2024 aligns with a 40-week (40W) cycle. Currently, I’m expecting the first 20-week (20W) cycle of this 40W cycle, which is actually the second 40W cycle in the 80W cycle, to occur around December 18th. This would correspond to wave A of the y leg of the larger wave II in the wave analysis.
Following this, I anticipate a rally that should take us higher before the extreme bearish phase begins as we approach the 80W cycle trough, which is expected in early April 2025.
There is an alternative (less likely) bullish scenario to keep in mind. If wave B becomes more strongly bullish, I would shift my bias to that scenario. However, until that happens, my preferred view remains as shown in the chart.
CorrectingThe stock is trading in a potential expanded flat. It is currently unfolding in the third wave of the red C-wave. I expect the decline to continue until end of 2025Q1.
AMD Potential LongChart has been very bearish lately. Not really sure what AMD wants to do, looking at the daily chart it looks like AMD could bounce off the 130 support level and into the 155-160 range. With that being said I think that there could be the possibility that it trades sideways into the 145-150 range. Going to have to wait and see what it gives us in the coming days, next week could be a big tell all.
If the price breaks that 130 support range look for a drop into the 122-110 range and possibly the 100 range.
P.S first idea so don't crucify me if its wrong. I will update this if I decide to take a position.
AMD Long ScenarioBased on my analysis, we are currently in correction wave 4 that consist of ABC, where wave C is a triangle (abcde). Wave re currently at wave c, and heading towards d, e and which would then complete Wave 4 correction that would initiate Wave 5 that could potential take us to ~$250.
$AMD - channel and downtrend break outAMD - finally looks like stock breaking out of downtrend channel. Still waiting for that $143.50 break for upside. stock is getting strong on indicators. Calls above $143.50 for a move towards $150 and higher.
