COST to come down in about 6 monthsA bounce after this current dip, then retracement back down to lower levels
Long very short term, but in a downward trend
COST trade ideas
Breaking: COSTCO Shares Dip 2% In Premarket Amidst Earnings MissCostco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:COST ), together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of membership warehouses in the United States, reported fiscal second-quarter sales that topped analysts’ estimates, but earnings missed as costs rose.
The membership-based retailer saw revenue rise 9% year-over-year to $63.72 billion, above the analyst consensus from Visible Alpha. However, Costco's net income of $1.79 billion, or $4.02 per share, missed expectations, despite rising from a year earlier. The results came as merchandise costs rose 9%.
The period marked the company’s second quarter since its membership fee hike went into effect in September. Revenue from membership fees rose 7% year-over-year to $1.19 billion, though executives previously said they expect the impact on margins to be weighted to the back half of the fiscal year and into fiscal 2026.
Technical Outlook
Shares of Costco slid 1.5% in after-hours trading Thursday following the release extending the lost to premarket trading hours, with the asset down 2.02% in Friday's premarket session.
For Costco shares, the immediate support lies within the 1-month low axis. Should Costco shares face selling pressure the 1-month low should serve as a point of reprieve for Costco shares. With the RSI at 50 a breakout above the 1-month high should spark a bullish reversal for Costco shares respectively.
Selling Premium Going into Costco EarningsGiven Costco’s historical tendency for minimal post-earnings stock movement, along with inflated IV in the options market, selling premium via a bear call spread is a high-probability, risk- managed strategy to profit from an expected IV crush and minimal price movement following earnings.
Key Points Supporting the Thesis:
1. Historical Price Movement: Over the past 4 years, Costco’s stock has experienced an average post-earnings price movement of only 1.24%. The majority of moves have been within a modest range of -1% to +2%. This indicates that despite earnings announcements, the stock tends to remain within a predictable price range, minimizing the potential for significant directional price swings.
2. Implied Volatility and Overpricing of Options: Currently, the options market is pricing in a 4.6% move for Costco’s stock post-earnings. Given Costco’s historical price movement patterns, this is an overestimation of potential volatility. IV tends to collapse after earnings announcements.
3. Costco’s High Valuation: Costco is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 61, which is significantly higher than historical levels. This suggests that the stock is already expensive relative to its
earnings potential, making it less likely to experience a massive upward movement after earnings. The high valuation also means that even strong earnings may not drive significant upside, further increasing the likelihood of a muted post-earnings reaction.
4. Earnings Catalysts and Market Behavior: Costco’s earnings reports historically have had limited impact on the stock’s price due to the company’s stable revenue and earnings growth.
Investors have already priced in much of the growth potential, leading to minimal surprise reactions to earnings releases. The combination of low historical price movement and high IV makes this a prime environment for selling premium, as the likelihood of large moves is low, while option prices remain high.
Implied Volatility Action For CostcoSorry no video today but, I am looking at Costco For an earnings play in options. I'll be targeting the 20 delta calls end the week of their earnings and I will be exciting the day of earnings (they accounted after market close). The idea here is that theta decay will be out weighed by implied volatility.
The chart itself is showing strength but, the daily has a potential anti pattern setting up. So knowing when we are incorrect is imperative.
COST in Buy ZoneMy trading plan is very simple.
I buy or sell when at three of these events happen:
* Price tags the top or bottom of parallel channel zones
* Money flow spikes beyond it's Bollinger Bands
* Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at near oversold overbought level
* Price at Fibonacci levels
So...
Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing.
Price in buying zone at bottom of channels
Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at oversold level
Money flow momentum is spiked negative and under at bottom of Bollinger Band
Entry at $898
Target is upper channel around $1000
COSTCO Power HouseWatching Costco going up to $1004 in order to see reaction time for either bullish or bearish.
Costco is well structured and definitely a good investment m, but current sentiment could break Trend support.
Up for 1004 for reaction. Very short term buying opportunity for now. Probably a 1 day move before watching reaction.
COST Costco Wholesale Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought COST before the rally:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of COST Costco Wholesale Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 1030usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2025-3-21,
for a premium of approximately $22.15.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Buy Costco Wholesale CorporationShort Term Trading Advice by Naranj Capital
Buy Costco Wholesale Corporation
● Buy Range- 1035 - 1050
● Target- 1101 - 1110
● StopLoss- 1010
● Potential Return- 5-6%
● Duration- 12-14 Trading Days
Costco Wave Analysis – 25 February 2025
- Costco reversed from support level 1025.00
- Likely to rise to resistance level 1080.00
Costco recently reversed up from the support level 1025.00 (which stopped wave iv at the start of February) intersecting with the 20-day, moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from January.
The upward reversal from the support level 1025.00 stopped the previous minor correction 2, which belongs to wave (5) from December.
Given the clear daily uptrend, Costco can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 1080.00 (top of the previous impulse wave 1).
Costco Wholesale: Robust Earnings Support Bullish Trend◉ Technical Observation
● The stock price is exhibiting a strong uptrend, moving within an ascending parallel channel.
● A recent breakout from a rounding bottom pattern has propelled the price higher, nearing the upper boundary of the channel.
◉ Two Possible Scenarios
1. Rejection and Pullback: The price may face resistance at the upper end of the channel, leading to a potential decline.
2. Breakout and Continuation: Alternatively, the price may break through the upper boundary, sustaining the uptrend and driving the stock higher.
◉ Q1 FY25 Result Highlights
● Net Income: Up 13.1% to $1.79 billion, compared to $1.58 billion in Q1 FY24.
● Comparable Sales: Increased by 5.2% in the US and 5.8% in Canada.
● E-commerce: Comparable sales soared by 13%, with adjusted e-commerce comparable sales rising to 13.2%.
● Membership Revenue: Grew by 7.8% to $1.166 billion, reflecting strong customer loyalty.
● Gross Margin: Improved by 24 basis points to 11.28%.
COST, Short, 4h✅ COST is overbought and is pulling back to retest the key support at 1007.80 before determining its next move.
SHORT 🔥
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COST Short and LongI am bearish on Cost for now until we get into major support below. I wont be buying until the $500 to $350. I cant see the future and we might blow through this resistance and go higher, but I would love to get long in the next year or two if we ever see a retrace down. Short play for now.
$758 would be my target for shorts and a very bullish entry. Confluence between my fib method and it is an untested level.
COSTCO - Time to break above and beyond the All time HighHi guys , today we are going to overview one of the retail giants COSTCO.
Fundamentals :
Revenue Growth and Profitability :
Consistent Revenue Growth: Costco has demonstrated steady revenue growth, driven by an expanding membership base, increased same-store sales, and international expansion.
Profit Margins: While Costco operates with low gross margins due to its focus on low pricing, its operating margins benefit significantly from recurring membership income. This structure ensures financial stability even in competitive environments.
Financial Health:
Balance Sheet Strength: Costco has a strong balance sheet with manageable debt levels and ample liquidity. Its ability to generate robust free cash flow supports both operations and shareholder returns.
Dividend Growth: Costco pays a reliable dividend, which has seen consistent growth over the years. Additionally, the company occasionally issues special dividends, highlighting its commitment to returning value to shareholders
Valuation Metrics:
Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: Costco often trades at a premium valuation compared to peers due to its consistent performance and strong brand equity.
Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio: Reflecting its robust revenue generation capabilities, Costco’s P/S ratio is higher than the retail industry average but supported by predictable growth.
And some potential risks : Thin Margins: Costco’s low-margin strategy leaves little room for error, and rising costs (e.g., labor, logistics) could pressure profitability.
Economic Sensitivity: While generally resilient, Costco could face challenges if economic conditions significantly impact discretionary spending or if competition intensifies.
Foreign Exchange Risk: With international operations, Costco is exposed to currency fluctuations that could affect earnings.
Technical analysis : The company has been running on a very healthy uptrend throughought 2024 and has had 4 green earning seasons which gives a positive bullish trend conversion,with analysists focusing on another green earnings in their Q4 report this gives us the necessary confirmations for a up-trend:
Entry has been made at : 921
Target will be above the ATH : 1030
As always my friends happy trading!
P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my community so you can follow up with me in private!
Costco Wave Analysis – 4 February 2025
- Costco broke round resistance level 1000.00
- Likely to rise to resistance level 1050.00
Costco is rising inside the minor impulse wave 3, which previously broke the key round resistance level 1000.00, which stopped wave i at the start of December.
The active impulse wave 3 belongs to the higher order impulse wave (3) from the start of August.
Given the strong daily uptrend, Costco can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 1050.00 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3).
COSTCO: Bullish Continuation in Play – Targeting 1,017$NASDAQ:COST is trading within an ascending trendline, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend. The price recently bounced off the trendline support, confirming buyers’ control. This structure indicates the potential for further upside, with the next target around the 1,017 level.
The bullish scenario assumes that the price maintains its momentum and respects the trendline support.
Let me know your thoughts or if you have an alternative perspective!
US Stocks After Tariffs This WeekThe following US stocks are attracting money flow as scanned and detected by Option Scalper on Daily Candle:
1. IBM
2. ABBV
3. COST
4. META
5. WMT
6. ACN
7. V
8. MA
9. ABT
10. DIS
The following stocks are witnessing selling pressure:
1. NVDA
2. CVX
3. MSFT
The indicator was fed with top 40 US Stocks (by market cap) and this scan is based upon this input. You can change the stocks you want to monitor by going to indicator settings.
The stocks which are shown in gray color are currently in the cloud area (consolidation zone) and hence not tradeable (on daily candle).
Please use your due diligence before making your trading decision.
Happy trading this week.
Speculative Madness: The Market’s Bubble Stocks Some stocks areSpeculative Madness: The Market’s Bubble Stocks
Some stocks aren't just overvalued—they're in full speculative bubble mode. Fundamentals? Irrelevant. When euphoria takes over, rationality disappears.
Here’s my list of bubble stocks that scream unsustainable pricing:
SBUX, T, PLTR, BMY, PYPL, NFLX, GS, ISRG, ARM, C, SHOP, BSX, SPOT, UBS, IBKR, RELX, CEG, CRWD, MSTR, MMM, DASH, COF...
And let’s not forget the obvious: TSLA, META, AMZN, AVGO, GOOGL, JPM, MA, V, WMT.
Honestly, the entire banking sector, brokers, and tech are in bubble territory.
What the hell is going on with this market? Why are algos just buying, buying, buying, squeezing all the shorts?! Unbelievable.
The dump will be insannnnnnnne!!! 🚨
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) SL-$931,88 TP-$999,80Technical Analysis:
-Historical pattern
-Support within a channel and trend indicator
-One day left until the monthly candle closes, and a daily engulfing candle is a likely sign they will attempt to surpass the previous high
COST Hits Key Levels! Must-Watch Stock on the Radar This Week Technical Analysis (TA) and Price Action:
Costco (COST) is currently trading near the critical resistance level of $968, consolidating after a steady upward move. The price action reflects a bullish ascending wedge on the 1-hour chart, with consistent higher highs and higher lows.
* Momentum Indicators:
* MACD: Above the signal line, confirming upward momentum.
* Stochastic RSI: Overbought, signaling a potential cooldown or short-term consolidation.
* Volume: Volume is gradually increasing, supporting a bullish breakout scenario.
If COST breaks $968, the next major resistance levels are at $980 and $1,000, aligning with Gamma Call Walls. However, a failure to break $968 could lead to a pullback toward $947 or $940, providing potential entry zones for long positions.
Key Levels to Watch:
* Resistance:
* $968 (Breakout Level, Call Wall).
* $980 (Gamma Call Resistance).
* $1,000 (Psychological Resistance).
* Support:
* $947 (VWAP and first pullback zone).
* $940 (Gamma Put Support).
* $927 (Critical Support Zone).
Trading Plan:
Bullish Scenario:
1. Entry: Above $968 breakout confirmation.
2. Target: $980 (first target) and $1,000 (extended target).
3. Stop Loss: $947 (to protect downside risk).
4. Note: Look for volume confirmation and MACD alignment above zero.
Bearish Scenario:
1. Entry: Below $940 breakdown confirmation.
2. Target: $927 (first target) and $920 (extended target).
3. Stop Loss: $950 (to avoid whipsaw).
Options Trading Suggestions:
Bullish Option Setup:
* Call Option:
* Strike: $980.
* Expiration: 1-2 weeks out.
* Target Premium Gain: 50%-100%.
* Entry: After breakout above $968 with strong volume confirmation.
Bearish Option Setup:
* Put Option:
* Strike: $940.
* Expiration: 1-2 weeks out.
* Target Premium Gain: 50%-100%.
* Entry: On rejection of $968 or breakdown below $940.
Thoughts on Direction:
Costco is showing bullish momentum, and a breakout above $968 could ignite a strong rally toward $980 and beyond, driven by bullish Gamma flows and volume. However, failure to sustain above $968 may lead to a pullback, providing a better risk-reward entry point around $947-$940. The overall direction remains bullish as long as the price holds above $940.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, especially during premarket or at market open. Be prepared to adjust your strategy accordingly. If you have any questions or need updates, feel free to PM me.
After-Hours Update: COST 50% Retracement Break-Up?COST has been trading below it's most recent 200 Candles right around the $951.64 Price Level, currently consolidating and presenting an additional opportunity to get around that lower trend level (Bottom Purple) to ride this into the year.
With the planned Tariffs, we plan for that to be handed down to the consumer ultimately, causing a potential continued rise in Consumer Goods through it's Cyclical Rotation throughout 2025. Getting into things like COST, WMT, TGT and KR (which we reported on yesterday) could provide some great performance in a longer-term hold and nice returns along the way.
Let's see what #2025 has to bring to the table! Otherwise, connect with us everywhere you are in the meantime by visiting our website to access more of our Premium Personal Budgeting & Investment Portfolio Management Solutions to get started investing, as well as, optimize your potential for a better financial future at @MyMIWallet!
COSTCO: Correction phase may be coming to an END!! Costco Wholesale is an international chain of hypermarkets with a Price Club format whose objective is to provide the best prices on quality products.
At Costco you can find a large selection of exclusive products, including hospitality products, confectionery, household appliances, television, car parts, tires, toys, electronic devices, sports items, jewelry, watches, cameras, audiovisual, books, household products, health, beauty, furniture, equipment and office products... all with the best quality.
It has large stores in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, the United Kingdom, Australia, Spain, France, Iceland and China.
--> What is the technical aspect?
If we look at the chart, the technical aspect is impeccable bullish in a retracement phase, but the retracement phase may be coming to an END!!.
After making a strong retracement overcoming the 61.8% Fibonacci zone, on January 7 the price gave us the first bullish warning (Bull). The next one to warn us of bullish strength (Bull) was the oscillator on January 13, and finally, yesterday, the FORCE aligned with the TREND and the MOMENTUM (see table), leaving everything bullish (Bull) ready to attack highs.
--> What do we need to attack highs?
That it overcomes its last important resistance which is the 963 area.
-------------------------------------
Strategy to follow:
ENTRY: We will open 2 long positions if the H4 candle closes above 963
POSITION 1 (TP1): We close the first position in the 999 area (+4%)
--> Stop Loss at 899 (-6.2%).
POSITION 2 (TP2): We open a Trailing Stop type position.
--> Initial dynamic Stop Loss at (-6.2%) (coinciding with the 899 of position 1).
---We modify the dynamic Stop Loss to (-1%) when the price reaches TP1 (999).
-------------------------------------------
SET UP EXPLANATIONS
*** How do we know which 2 long positions to open? Let's take an example: If we want to invest 2,000 euros in the stock, what we do is divide that amount by 2, and instead of opening 1 position of 2,000, we will open 2 positions of 1,000 each.
*** What is a Trailing Stop? A Trailing Stop allows a trade to continue gaining value when the market price moves in a favorable direction, but automatically closes the trade if the market price suddenly moves in an unfavorable direction by a certain distance. That certain distance is the dynamic Stop Loss.
-->Example: If the dynamic Stop Loss is at -1%, it means that if the price drops by -1%, the position will be closed. If the price rises, the Stop Loss also rises to maintain that -1% in the rises, therefore, the risk is increasingly lower until the position becomes profitable. In this way, very solid and stable price trends can be taken advantage of, maximizing profits.
COSTCO New uptrend about to begin.Costco (COST) gave us the most optimal buy signal on our previous analysis (October 07 2024, see chart below) right at the bottom of the Channel Up, and easily hit our 1000 Target:
Yet again, we are ahead of a strong bullish break-out and the only Resistance level that remains is the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The 1D RSI has already given a buy signal right on its oversold barrier (30.00) on January 02 2025.
Once the 1D MA50 breaks, we will have a confirmed break-out buy signal. The previous tree Bullish Legs have been of at least +16.08%, so our new Target as of today is 1045.
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Costco Long -Playing Costco long back up to 985.00 near the recent high's.
-Weekly charts looks great, price rejects the weekly 20ema very nicely whenever we pull back to it, also have some decent support at 910.00.
-The lower time frames ( 4H / 1h ) just broke out of a wedge pattern to the upside, we are currently starting to see a nice push up and will close the day very strong to the upside.
