IQ on a FOMO inducing TearI got bull-trapped in IQ around August and after that I placed it on my "check once a month list" and so I missed the last 4 weeks of gains. I also heard about China moving to improve its liquidity problem and for some reason I didn’t start reading into that until just now. Normally I would be worried about FOMO’ing at the top but this clearly just started to move.
Fundamentally IQ got hit with the global quantitative tightening beatdown. With liquidity down internationally all bubble-stocks (FANG, Other tech stocks, real estate, crypto, etc) started popping. My linked post go over how QT has messed with both traditional markets and crypto so give those a read. First some news about China and liquidity (www.bloomberg.com)
China will cut the reserve requirement ratio and improve funding conditions this month, as liquidity tightens toward the Spring Festival holidays, the country’s largest securities firm says. Fresh demand for funds will amount to nearly 4.3 trillion yuan ($625 billion) in January, according to Citic Securities Co. and Bloomberg calculations. Mainland residents will withdraw 1 trillion yuan of cash in preparation for the holiday, when money is gifted in red envelopes. Corporate tax payments and maturities of lenders’ interbank debt will also mop up liquidity, prompting authorities to step up cash injections.
I don’t give a damn about red envelopes and holidays, I care about $625B inflating the money supply and IQ, which has responded fantastically. On the main chart we see that the price action created a C clamp on the cloud and that is performed well enough to get us a bullish T-K cross. That price action basically teleported the price action into the cloud once the point of control was breached on the volume profile. I expect a lot of action between the 0.382 and .0618) retracement levels (between $26 and 34 as we have two high volume nodes there. We might also test the POC one more time before a truer takeoff.
The short history and exponential growth make doing standard TA with the RSI and stochastics rather difficult as we cannot look for divergences on the 3d or weekly timeframe (and forget monthly) to see if one of these massive uptrends or bottoms is divergent or not. The MACD does help us identify a technical triple bottom and the ATR is at a yearly low so we can expect any movement to be very impulsive. Since we are out of room to impulse down that means we impulse up. Higher period moving averages are worthless at this point but we do have a bullish cross incoming on the 20 and 50.
Digging down into the 4h chart we see the 20-50 MA cross was all we needed for a fantastic upswing and the 20 was tested as support once and then we blasted off. The chart below really isn’t helping my FOMO.
