MSFT Trade Recap (21Feb25)MSFT trade setup was spot on.
Sometimes the play just doesn't work out.
Will be looking out for it next week.
MSFT trade ideas
The new Quantum Play!I wrote this article 18 months ago:
Now we should add MSFT to the list:
As of August 2023, the most advanced quantum computers are:
IBM Osprey, with 433 qubits. It was announced in November 2022 and is still under development.Opens in a new windowspectrum.ieee.orgIBM Osprey quantum computer
IonQ Aria, with 128 qubits. It was announced in May 2022.Opens in a new windowionq.comIonQ Aria quantum computer
Google Sycamore, with 53 qubits. It was announced in October 2019 and achieved quantum supremacy.
Opens in a new windowai.googleblog.comGoogle Sycamore quantum computer
Rigetti Forest-1, with 112 qubits. It was announced in February 2022.Opens in a new windowen.wikipedia.orgRigetti Forest-1 quantum computer
D-Wave Advantage 2, with 128 qubits. It was announced in October 2021.Opens in a new windowwww.dwavesys.comD-Wave Advantage 2 quantum computer
These quantum computers are still in the early stages of development, but they are rapidly becoming more powerful. As the number of qubits increases, so does the potential for these computers to solve problems that are intractable for classical computers.
In the future, quantum computers are expected to be used for a variety of applications, including drug discovery, materials science, and financial modeling. They could also be used to develop new encryption methods and break existing ones.
The development of quantum computers is a rapidly evolving field, and it is difficult to say which company will ultimately create the most powerful quantum computer. However, the progress that has been made in recent years is very promising, and it is clear that quantum computers have the potential to revolutionize many aspects of our lives.
MSFT Darkpool AccumulationMSFT has had a very large amount of Dark pool accumulation during the last week and today. Sellers have also been leaving since MSFT fell into the $410 area.
Looking back at Option Order Flow - Institutions do seem to be bullish and are targeting $420. Additionally, an $85 Million dollar call option for May 16 was bought at $417.19 back on January 31st. There is less Put premiums than Call premiums over the last couple months. Logically, the skew on MSFT looks more bullish than bearish at its current price.
Due to the Relative Strength MSFT showed today during the market dip and recent record inflows of share purchasing, I believe that we could see a 2-3% move upwards soon. Their ER was positive and there is still a buy signal on Wall Street preferring Software to Hardware and MSFT has extremely important software's, not just their Open AI stake.
Microsoft’s Momentum Could Be FadingMicrosoft has sputtered for months, and now some traders may see downside risk.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the pair of bearish gaps after earnings.
The software giant rebounded quickly in November, returning above its 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) and 200-day simple moving average (SMA).
Contrast that with January 30’s drop, when prices stayed under both moving averages. That session’s opening price around $418.77 has also emerged as resistance this month.
Second, the 50-day SMA is nearing a potential “death cross” below the 200-day SMA. That’s a potentially bearish long-term signal.
MACD has been negative and the 8-day EMA is below the 21-day EMA. Those are potentially bearish short-term signals.
Next, the stock has been trying to hold the November lows around $405. But if that level breaks, the August low under $386 may come into play.
Finally, MSFT has traded an average of 463,000 options contracts per day in the last month. (It’s the eight most active underlier in the S&P 500 in that time, according to TradeStation data.) That may create opportunity for options traders to position for a potential move toward the 52-week low.
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MICROSOFT: On the way to the top of the channel!! We're in!!On Wednesday, January 29, Microsoft presented its results. Its results were better than expected in Sales, EBIT and BNA, however, the growth of Azure (cloud) disappointed and the value began to fall towards the bottom of the LATERAL channel in which it has been moving for months.
Main figures compared to the Bloomberg consensus:
Sales: 69,632 million dollars (+12%) vs. 68,903 million dollars expected.
EBIT: 31,653 million dollars (+17.1%) vs. 30,258M$ expected.
BNA: 24,108 million dollars (+10.2%) vs. 23,443M$ expected.
Within the three major segments of the company, the cloud business is slightly disappointing (growth of +31% vs. +32% expected by consensus). In addition, the management team at the earnings conference pointed out that Azure (cloud business) growth will be somewhat more moderate than expected (range +31%/+32% vs. +33% in this quarter).
--> What do we do with Microsoft?
Despite the cloud disappointment, if we have a long-term view, Microsoft is a very attractive stock to have in our portfolio.
--> What does it look like technically?
The technical aspect is BULLISH/SIDEWAYS, therefore, if we want to enter the stock, we should wait for the price to touch the bottom of the channel and give us a signal of the start of bullish momentum. AND THAT IS JUST WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW!!.
In H1 timeframe we already have bullish STRENGTH and MOMENTUM (Bull) and in H4 timeframe the MOMENTUM, therefore, we can now enter LONG in the value.
--------------------------------------
Strategy to follow:
ENTRY: We will open 2 long positions in the current area of 414
POSITION 1 (TP1): We close the first position in the 446 area (+7.5%)
--> Stop Loss at 385 (-7.5%).
POSITION 2 (TP2): We open a Trailing Stop type position.
--> Initial dynamic Stop Loss at (-7.5%) (coinciding with 385 of position 1).
--> We modify the dynamic Stop Loss to (-1%) when the price reaches TP1 (446).
-------------------------------------------
SET UP EXPLANATIONS
*** How do you know which 2 long positions to open? Let's take an example: If we want to invest 2,000 euros in the stock, what we do is divide that amount by 2, and instead of opening 1 position of 2,000, we will open 2 positions of 1,000 each.
*** What is a Trailing Stop? A Trailing Stop allows a trade to continue gaining value when the market price moves in a favorable direction, but automatically closes the trade if the market price suddenly moves in an unfavorable direction by a certain distance. That certain distance is the dynamic Stop Loss.
-->Example: IF the dynamic Stop Loss is at -1%, it means that if the price drops by -1%, the position will be closed. If the price rises, the Stop Loss also rises to maintain that -1% in the rises, therefore, the risk is increasingly lower until the position becomes profitable. In this way, very strong and stable price trends can be exploited, maximizing profits.
Microsoft Wave Analysis – 19 February 2025
- Microsoft reversed from strong support level 405.00
- Likely to rise to resistance level 417.80
Microsoft recently reversed up from the support zone between the multi-month support level 405.00 (which has been reversing the price from September) and the lower daily Bollinger band.
The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the C-wave of the active ABC correction (2) from the start of December.
Given the strength of the support level 405.00, Microsoft can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 417.80 (which reversed the price at the start of February).
Microsoft - This Will Lead To Trouble!Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) shows some clear weakness:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Back in mid 2024 Microsoft created another new all time high and in doing so also retested the major upper resistance trendline of the longer term rising channel formation. Following this bearish retest, a correction is very expected before we then see the bullish trend continuation.
Levels to watch: $350
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
$MSFT buyers coming in. $422 looks possible soonNASDAQ:MSFT - Stock finally seeing some buyers coming in. Stock bouncing off $405 region after testing it multiple times. looking for calls above $416.80 for a move towards $420 and $422, Stock has a gap from $422.3 to $440. looking for gap fill if enters here
MSFT with Room to Run to UpsideI guess what I love about this one is the fact that right now MSFT isn't exactly getting all that much love, and this sleeper has room to run if it can get above it's 200 day SMA! This one has been open for a couple days and if we can get a VIX crush Friday tomorrow it may just be getting started!
The signal was created by the King Trading Momentum Strategy combines the 5 EMA crossing above the 13 EMA, RSI strength, favorable momentum as measured by ADX plus evaluating recent volume changes and even something that measures breakout momentum called Beta for some equities! MSFT and over 100 equities are built into this script with optimal backtest take profits and stop losses and can be toggled on by simply checking a box (default they are turned off). I always enable Using Bar Magnifier and On Bar Close in Properties.
MSFT Following GOOG's Path? Targeting $350Hello Traders,
I’m sharing my analysis of the MSFT weekly chart. The price has bounced off the upper main channel line around $465.
Looking at the previous wave, it consisted of an uptrend (blue progression channel) lasting 94 weeks and a downtrend (grey channel) lasting 42 weeks, totaling 136 weeks. I’ve highlighted a yellow rectangle showing the price action after exiting the blue channel. Let's apply the same logic to the current wave, which started in January 2023.
The price has now exited the uptrend portion of the current wave (blue channel) and is retesting the broken channel's lower line, similar to what we observed in the yellow rectangle. Therefore, I expect a downtrend channel to form, potentially targeting $350 over the next 45 weeks.
I've aimed to make this analysis straightforward, and you'll notice that MSFT is exhibiting a pattern similar to GOOG, with two waves in a long-period progression channel.
Happy trading!
NASDAQ:MSFT
Microsoft.. YIKES!Who kept an eye on Microsoft like I mentioned not so long ago?
Well, it lost that rising trend line and is now on the final remains of horizontal support.
Could fall really fast below that.
Is Microsoft really going to start moving up?After feeling like it has been in a never ending sideways cycle is Microsoft ready to start moving up again or is the company happy sleeping still?
We are at a demand zone maybe we can get a push up from here.....
MICROSOFT: Rectangle bottom buy opportunity.Microsoft is still bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 39.052, MACD = -6.600, ADX = 39.471) but that is to be expected as the price breached the 0.786 and almost touched the bottom of the 5 month Rectangle pattern. All breaks under the 0.786 have been strong buy opportunities targeting at least the 0.236 Fib. The trade is long (TP = 438.50).
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What next for MSFT stock after recent pushWhat next for MSFT stock after the recent push?
If this baby gets to $400, I will take a buy. TP $433 and SL $370. this will be a Risk/Reward of 1:3.43
My view and zones are displayed on the chart.
Trade with care
What's next for Microsoft?The 50 EMA (green line) has historically acted as dynamic support, but with price now trading below it, there is a clear shift in momentum toward the bearish side. If price fails to reclaim the 50 EMA (currently around $415-$420) and faces rejection, it could signal further downside toward the $380 support zone, making a short trade viable with a stop above $426. However, if buyers step in at $387-$390 and we see a strong bullish reaction, it could lead to a rebound toward the 50 EMA and potentially the $427-442 distribution zone. The key decision point lies in whether price can reclaim or decisively reject the 50 EMA, dictating the next major move. A clean reclaim would signal bullish continuation, while a firm rejection could confirm further downside before any recovery.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading and investing involve risk, and independent research or consultation with a professional is recommended before making any financial decisions.
Microsoft Set to Bounce Back: Consider Going LONG Next Week
- Key Insights: Microsoft remains a strong player in the tech sector, with
recent earnings highlighting its resilience. The current retracement
presents a buying opportunity as analysts remain bullish on the stock,
driven by solid fundamentals and prospects in cloud computing and artificial
intelligence. The backing from large investors, including BlackRock, further
confirms its growth potential in the near future, making it a favorable pick
for long-term investors.
- Price Targets: Based on the analysis, traders should consider the following
targets and stop levels for next week:
Next week targets: T1: $432, T2: $446.
Stop levels: S1: $405, S2: $400.
This alignment follows the criteria for long positions, reflecting a structured approach to potential gains
while minimizing risks.
- Recent Performance: Microsoft’s recent performance has showcased its pivotal
role in the market, frequently moving in correlation with fellow tech
leaders. Although the stock experienced a price retracement, it has endured
strong backing from both institutional investors and retail sentiment. This
fluctuation is seen as a temporary setback in the context of its long-term
growth trajectory.
- Expert Analysis: Market experts have expressed optimism surrounding Microsoft,
highlighting its strategic positioning in sectors poised for growth,
specifically artificial intelligence and cloud services. Analysts suggest
the current price movements create an attractive entry point for long-term
investments, with many predicting a forthcoming rebound. This sentiment is
reinforced by the performance trends in the broader technology space.
- News Impact: Significant market events, particularly earnings reports from key
technology firms, are shaping the outlook for Microsoft. The ongoing
discussion around artificial intelligence investments, in which Microsoft is
a central player, reinforces its significance in the market. Despite facing
some volatility, Microsoft's sturdy fundamentals and strategic focus
position it as a favored choice for investors looking towards the future.
MSFTShort Fundamental Analysis – MSFT
1. Context
• Core Business & Revenue Streams
• Microsoft generates steady income from a diversified portfolio: Windows OS, Office 365 (productivity suite), and Azure (cloud computing).
• Cloud services (Azure) remain a key growth driver, competing with AWS (Amazon) and GCP (Google).
• Macro Environment
• Ongoing demand for remote work and digital transformation supports enterprise software and cloud adoption.
• Potential headwinds include a global economic slowdown, which could impact IT spending, and rising competition in AI-driven services.
2. Possible Direction
• Bias: Generally bullish over the medium to long term, given Microsoft’s strong balance sheet, reliable cash flow, and continued focus on cloud and AI innovations.
• Alternate Scenario:
• A sharp downturn in corporate IT budgets or intensified cloud competition might slow revenue growth.
• Regulatory actions (antitrust scrutiny, data protection rules) could weigh on sentiment and valuation.
3. Factors to Watch
1. Azure Growth & Market Share
• Key metric for investors, as cloud revenue gains help offset any stagnation in legacy Windows or Office segments.
2. Earnings Reports & Guidance
• Management’s outlook on revenues, margins, and capital expenditures provides clues about demand trends.
3. AI Initiatives & Acquisitions
• Microsoft’s ongoing integration of AI across its product suite (e.g., GitHub Copilot, Bing Chat) and strategic acquisitions can drive future growth.
4. Regulatory & Competitive Landscape
• Watch for potential antitrust concerns or new market entrants in cloud, productivity software, or AI.
4. Overall Conclusion
• MSFT is well-positioned to benefit from enterprise cloud adoption and AI-driven services.
• Its diverse revenue streams and strong balance sheet offer resilience in times of macro uncertainty.
• Despite potential challenges from competition and regulatory scrutiny, Microsoft’s long-term fundamentals remain solid.
Disclaimer
This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Stock markets can be volatile, and individual securities carry significant risks. Always consider your personal risk tolerance, diversify your portfolio, and consult reputable financial advisors or official filings before making investment decisions.
MSFT Shorts TP hitThe swing short trade idea posted earlier has hit its TP, final target was hit and all positions were taken off. I still think MSFT will trade lower given that Nasdaq is bearish. If you followed this idea congratulations.
$MSFT – Breakdown Confirmed, Bearish Pressure Mounting?NASDAQ:MSFT
The stock broke key support at $404.37 in yesterday’s session, signaling a potential for further downside. This breakdown confirms the breach of a major consolidation triangle that had been forming since the August 5, 2024 lows, following a sharp decline from $468.35.
🔹 Bearish Scenario – Lower Levels in Focus:
With the triangle breakdown confirmed, price action suggests continuation to the downside. A Bullish Deep Crab pattern could emerge if the stock reaches $373.02 , aligning with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level. This level also converges with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, making it a key area to watch for potential stabilization.
🔹 Key Levels to Watch:
📉 Support: $404.37 (broken), $373.02 (deep crab PRZ), key retracement levels
📈 Resistance: $412.85, $423.40, $437.22
💡 Momentum remains bearish, and we should monitor whether the stock accelerates toward the $373.02 zone, where a technical bounce could develop.
Is NASDAQ:MSFT heading for deeper correction, or will the deep crab pattern play out? Let’s discuss in the comments! 📉
Happy Trading,
André Cardoso
💡Risk Warning: Trading financial assets carries a high level of risk and may result in the loss of all your capital. Make sure to fully understand the risks involved before you start trading and carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk tolerance. The data and information provided in this content do not constitute financial or investment advice and should not be considered as such. Only invest what you can afford to lose, and be aware of the risks associated with trading financial assets.
MSFT ChannelBetween January 2023 and July 2024 NASDAQ:MSFT had a nearly 100% expansion showing aggressive growth. For the last 8 months however, MSFT has been trading sideways in a channel between ~$455 and ~$400. During the last earnings report future growth guidance came in under expectations. Technically, there was large gap down following earnings and a retraction to the 21 EMA offering a short entry window. I took a short position here with a stop loss placed above the 21 EMA, I will be adding to this position when price breaks the support of $400 and again if it continues to fall and retracts to the $400 level. First target is the previous $373 support level, second target is the $330 support level.
OpX is out of way, NVDA earnings aheadAfter another wild and crazy sell off last Friday due to options expiring, markets have one more obstacle to get through this week before it can finally make its next big move be it up or down. Nvda earnings Wednesday post market cant come soon enough.
MSFT Technical Analysis & GEX Options Setup for February 26📌 Key Observations from the Charts
1. Market Structure Breakdown:
* MSFT experienced a sharp decline, breaking below previous support levels around 412 and heading towards 408.
* The trend remains bearish as price is rejecting from a lower high after a significant breakdown.
* Volume profile suggests strong liquidity near 408, with 405.82 as the next critical downside level.
2. Volume Profile & Auction Levels:
* Point of Control (POC): ~408 (high liquidity, potential reaction zone).
* Value Area High (VAH): ~412-413 (prior resistance).
* Value Area Low (VAL): ~405.82 (possible next support).
* Below 405, there's a liquidity gap, meaning price could fall sharply to 400-395 if selling pressure increases.
3. Indicators Review:
* MACD: Bearish momentum increasing.
* Stochastic RSI: Slightly oversold but not yet curling upward—potential for more downside.
* VWAP: Price is trading below VWAP, confirming bearish control.
🛠️ Options GEX Analysis
* Call Resistance:
* 420 → Highest positive NETGEX & Call Wall (strong resistance).
* 430-440 → Heavy call positioning (unlikely to reach unless trend shifts).
* Put Walls & Support Zones:
* 390 & 385 → Highest Put Walls & Support (-50% & -30% levels).
* 395 → Second Major Put Wall (-39%).
* If price breaks 405, it may accelerate toward 400-395 due to gamma exposure.
* Implied Volatility (IVR & IVx):
* IVR 28.5 | IVx Avg 34.9 → Slightly elevated but not extreme.
* Call Positioning Only 7.3% → Options traders are not betting heavily on upside.
📈 Trade Setups & Game Plan
🔴 Bearish Scenario (Preferred Setup)
🔹 Entry: Short below 408 confirmation.
🔹 Target 1: 405.82 (VAL).
🔹 Target 2: 400-395 (Put Support).
🔹 Stop-Loss: Above 412 (invalidates downside move).
🔹 Options Strategy:
* Buy PUTS 405/400 expiring 1-2 weeks out if breakdown confirms.
* Debit Put Spread (Bearish 410P/400P for risk control).
🟢 Bullish Scenario (Less Likely)
🔹 Entry: If price reclaims 412, targeting 416-420.
🔹 Target 1: 416 (first resistance).
🔹 Target 2: 420 (Highest GEX resistance).
🔹 Stop-Loss: Below 410 invalidates upside move.
🔹 Options Strategy:
* Sell 395/390 Put Credit Spread for a bounce play.
🎯 My Thoughts & Suggestions
* Main Bias: Bearish, unless 412+ is reclaimed.
* Gamma Risks: Below 405, strong gamma exposure can push MSFT lower quickly.
* Options Play: Puts look stronger based on GEX positioning & technical weakness.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please do your own research and consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
