I like it!I just bought a big position of MSTU (leverage ETF of MSTR). Ascending triangle, price already testing the upper vertex. It might pull back a bit before breakout. SL if it breaks down the triangle.
MSTR trade ideas
MICROSTRATEGY a pyramid ponzi.Understanding the situation with MSTR can be quite complex.
Many people recognize that MicroStrategy has been issuing convertible bonds at a 0% interest rate to purchase Bitcoin. This strategy tends to drive up both Bitcoin's price and the value of MSTR shares.
As a result, the scheme appears to inflate continuously, placing the risk on bondholders. The only way for MSTR's stock price to keep rising is through the issuance of increasingly larger amounts of convertible debt; otherwise, the entire pyramid would collapse.
It's understandable why Michael Saylor seems to be focusing more on shilling MSTR bonds instead of Bitcoin itself.
Why would institutions invest in MSTR's convertible bonds at 0%?
Many believe it's because they anticipate being able to convert these bonds into MSTR stock in five years at a predetermined price, potentially around $675, effectively giving them a premium-free call option. However, there is a hidden cost to this strategy: inflation. At first glance, this might seem like a poor investment choice—if one expects MSTR's value to rise, it would make more sense to buy the shares now rather than commit funds to a higher price in the future.
Why would anyone engage in such a massive financial manoeuvre involving BILLIONS?
The truth is, those purchasing the bonds are ACTUALLY indifferent to the rising stock value! Their primary interest lies in capitalizing on price fluctuations. Ultimately, a convertible bond functions as a CALL OPTION; thus, as the MSTR stock price experiences greater volatility, the premium on the call increases. Recently the value of these convertible bonds has surged by 170%. This is precisely why investors are unconcerned about interest rates or the actual conversion of the bonds—they have ZERO desire to convert! The reason? Issuing new shares would only dilute their holdings!
All the rewards with none of the risks!
But what happens if MSTR collapses? Bondholders will seize all the Bitcoin MSTR possesses, leaving shareholders with nothing but scraps!
Can you fathom how deep this MSTR Ponzi scheme really is?
The more you explore, the more mental acrobatics you need to perform to grasp the situation!
Many believe that bond buyers are naive, but in reality, they are the sharpest players in the game, reaping the benefits without facing the risks! In the current climate, that’s the nature of volatility! It doesn’t matter if MSTR’s stock price fluctuates; they’re insulated from the fallout. Who do you think is betting against MSTR? It’s the bondholders, and their positions are secure!
Ultimately, for someone to profit, someone else must incur a loss, and it won’t be the bondholders. This means that regular shareholders are poised for significant losses, as the primary force driving MSTR’s stock price is its own volatility. Once that volatility dissipates, we could see MSTR plummet below $100 a share! All those crypto enthusiasts will be left reeling, wondering how MSTR could possibly decline while Bitcoin’s value rises!!!
What’s the main effect of these convertible bonds?
They create volatility in the stock price, leading to wild swings up and down, just as we’re currently witnessing.
What occurs when the volatility subsides?
The stock price will plummet!
Many people are misdirecting their focus on metrics, technical analysis, and listening to Michael Saylor's commentary on CNBC. Instead, they should be paying attention to the volatility of MSTR's stock price, as its decline will directly impact the stock's value.
Don't be misled; even if MSTR falls below $300, it will still be overpriced and could potentially drop to under $100 per share due to the convertible bonds scheme. Claims from MSTR valuation sites that each share is backed by a certain amount of Bitcoin are misleading; the reality is that the shares are not backed by anything.
The BONDHOLDERS are the ones who possess all the Bitcoin.
There’s no such thing as a free lunch—someone has to bear the costs, and in MSTR's case, that burden will fall on the shareholders. You certainly don’t want to be left holding the bag when the music stops.
It is important to maintain a clear perspective regarding cryptocurrencies; they should not be viewed as traditional investments, but rather as something more comparable to gambling.
While you may have the advantage of being an expert poker player, the only way to truly win is to cash out your profits.
Otherwise, you risk losing on MSTR and in the crypto market.
The Case for a 76% drop on MSTR: Norms of fib levels in a trend.If you draw a fib from the high to the low of the 2022 drop in MSTR, you'll see we have now completed all of the fibs of this swing.
In this post we're going to take a detailed look at two things;
1 - How a trend typically forms heading into a 4.23 extension.
2 - What typically happens at 4.23 extensions.
Everything we cover here will be generic rules for trend development. It's equally valid on bull and bear moves (we'll use examples of both) and it can be used on any timeframe. We're going to stick to big charts for this but these same concepts also scale down to day trading.
We are going to look at these specific hypothesis';
1.27 - 1.61 will produce some sort of pullback.
The breaking of 1.61 will produce a steady trend to at least 2.20.
Around 2.20 - 2.61 there will be some sort of reaction.
The move from 2.61 to 4.23 is very strong.
4.23s can mark the end of major moves.
These conditions in MSTR are marked into the chart pic. Let me show you another example on a bear trend to get us started.
This was the last bull swing before the 2007-2008 reversal. We're using the topping swing for our fib. We can draw this really early as soon as we see the first possible break.
We drop to the 1.61 and then we bounce. It looks like a recovery in real time.
Then once the 1.61 is broken we drop quickly to the 2.20.
Look closely here. The move to the 2.20 isn't the big red candle. There's a wick. That tells us this was a flash event. Crashed to the support, rapid bear trap. Filling our conditions of the expectations of a 1.61 break and the reaction 2.20.
The wick candle pullback went to around 1.61 and then there was capitulation when the 2.61 was broken.
We get to the the Final Boss of the fibs. The 4.23. There's a head fake under it and then a recovery back over it.
And the 2008 crash is over.
Want another one? Here's BB. The pattern expressed over a very long time. Full booms and bust.
Saw a lot of these patterns in 2021.
Imagine if you could have used the same playbook we can observe on the all time BB chart and used the same set of rules to understand all the key parts of the 2021 trend. That'd be weird.
Attached is a pic of the real time 2021 mention of fading the BB rally at the 4.23 (just to show this isn't just perfect fitting after the fact).
Let's jump back to another low. Here was the BTC low.
Or a bull one.
What Happens at 4.23 Fibs?
Most of the time when 4.23 fibs are hit there is a large correction or a full blown reversal. Cases of 4.23's breaking without retesting the 1.61 - 1.27 (and that's a crash, big move) are rarer.
In the times there is a 4.23 breakout, the following trend is usually exceptional. When looking at big instances of failed 4.23s they're usually found around the middle of a bubble or crash (depending on if it's a bull or bear break). It's much more difficult to show examples of the failed ones without being able to zoom in and out a lot, but you can look for them in places like the Nasdaq bubble, NVDA rally and in failure points of uptrends heading into crashes.
Almost invariably, the trend goes into a state of hyper performance if the 4.23 is broken.
However, if it is not broken - then we're usually going to ultimately end up spiking out the 1.27 fib. Which round trips most of the move.
If MSTR is a 4.23 blow off, it's give up most of the gains of the recent rally. That is inside of the bullish perspective. The correction comes to 1.27. If 1.27 fails, then you can end up with that lifetime BB chart.
Action around the 4.23 itself is fraught with caveats when it comes to actionable trading. You have to always have the assumption that if you're wrong you're going to be betting against a punishing trend and you have to be risk cautious and quick to get out / plan new levels. It always has to be remembered if wrong, the fade will fail spectacularly.
Further complicating things is we really can't be sure what sort of 4.23 head fake we're going to get. There are times we reverse right at the 4.23. Or come up a bit shy of it. Other times we make a nominal head fake that you could have started betting against almost as soon as it got passed the level and it went nothing but well for you.
Then there are the super blow offs. BB was somewhere in the range of 20 - 25% blow off. I remember this well (I'd shorted the 4.23 touch) it only lasted an exceptionally brief amount of time and was ultimately the Mother of all wicks but if I'd be fully exposed to all that price move - wouldn't have mattered. I'd probably have got nailed before it.
When it comes to the actual tactical betting on a 4.23 reversal, it's tricky. The core underlying theory of the 4.23 decision is a simple binary one though. Usually when the 4.23 is hit we're going to head into hyper trend conditions. These can be higher (and this is hard to quantify targets for with fibs) or they can be crashes (which we can usually roadmap with the 1.61 - 2.20 - 4.23 thing).
Extremely polarizing level here. Either all fib bases bear cases are entirely annulled for the foreseeable future or a drop of about 75% is setting up.
The 4.23 pullback/reversal is the far more common outcome.
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Bonus doom posting:
MSTR starter long off low 370smajor confluences at this level include:
- top of daily uptrend channel from september
- several large clusters of institutional prints from late november which will need to be tested
- 1hr 325 SMA
- 1hr liquidity zone
will be grabbing shares only at 33% allocation. if price fails this region will add another 33% at low 350s which is the middle of that channel and #13 ranked institutional print since inception. final 33% will be added at low 340s which is a strong local low and the #2 ranked institutional print of all time for MSTR.
MSTR - Inverse H&S Pattern with Clear Breakout TargetThis is an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern on MSTR 1-hour
Risk/Reward Analysis:
Entry Price: $440
Stop Loss: $400
Target Price: $520
Risk/Reward Ratio: 1R:2R
Details
Clear neckline breakout level around $440
Downside risk zone marked in red (-$40 from entry)
Upside potential marked in green (+$80 from entry)
The setup presents a favorable technical structure with a strong risk-reward ratio above 1:2.
MSTR long Going to pick up a $470 call into Feb FVG play trimming at %30 letting runners run and stops a $360
MSTR long Going to pick up a $470 call into Feb FVG play trimming at %30 letting runners run and stops a $360
MSTR following up with the bulls,dont try to counter the market!MSTR has been doing fantastically, so in the mid/short term overview until End of December / End of January - I am forecasting the bull run in crypto to continue, and as follow the bull run would continue with MSTR as well due to the fact as how centered they are with BTC.
Entry on market open -
Target 1 : 460$ per share
Target 2 :560$ per share
As always my friends happy trading!
P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my channel so you can follow up with me in private!
MSTR Breakout Alert: What's Next? Dec. 5Technical Analysis & Price Action:
* Current Trend: MSTR has shown a sharp breakout above the downtrend channel, signaling bullish momentum. The price is approaching key resistance at $419.
* Support Levels: Immediate support lies at $410. Below that, $400 serves as a psychological and technical level. Stronger support is seen near $393.
* Resistance Levels: Key resistance stands at $419. A breakout above this level could target $430-$440 in the near term.
Liquidity Zones & Order Blocks:
* Liquidity Zone: Between $393-$400, where buyers have consistently stepped in to support the price.
* Order Block: Around $400-$410, reflecting potential institutional interest.
Scalping Gameplan:
1. Entry for Scalping:
* Long Entry: Above $419 on high volume, targeting $425-$430.
* Short Entry: Below $410, targeting $400 and $393.
2. Stop Loss: For longs, place stops at $410; for shorts, set stops above $415.
3. Exit Targets: For longs, partial profit at $425 and final exit near $430. For shorts, aim for $400 with reassessment at $393.
Swing Trade Strategy:
* Bullish Setup: Enter above $419 with a close above this level, targeting $430-$440. Set a stop-loss at $410.
* Bearish Setup: If the price breaks below $393, consider shorting with a target of $380-$370.
Suggestions & Projections:
* MSTR's breakout from the descending channel is a strong bullish signal. However, watch for volume confirmation at $419 for further upside.
* If the stock fails to hold $410, a pullback to $400-$393 is likely before the next leg up.
Thoughts:
* Scalpers should focus on the tight range between $410-$419 for quick moves.
* Swing traders might wait for a clear breakout above $419 or a retest of $400-$393 for cleaner setups.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always perform your own research and trade responsibly.
MSTR Long on Daily SqueezeMSTR is showing a nicely formed daily squeeze that is waiting to fire to the upside. The breakout has started with the recent rise in BTC price. I expect this to continue to the upside.
Bull Flag ReadyThe price has made a bull flag similar to he BTC bull flag. I expect another price spike outside the parallel channel and retracement before recapturing the ATH later.
$MSTR call verticalI think NASDAQ:MSTR is ready to make a move.
I don't think CRYPTOCAP:BTC has much room to go lower than the current level.
I bought Dec. 20th $350/$370 call vertical for $11
I will have $9 profit (about 81%) if the stock closed
above $370 by expiration.
still bullish on the weekly line chart as-of Dec 3rdTo me, it still looks like retesting pink channel is taking place. Not sure if it is some kind of risk-on leading indicator or not, but we'll find out soon!
The Time to Stack Was Over a Year AgoEverything I've been eyeing for potential buys has already ripped, so no real opportunities at the moment. However, NASDAQ:TSLA under $300 for a DCA position is still a gift. It's a solid long-term entry if you're looking for one!
MicroStrategy (MSTR) Stock Price Surged Over 60% in NovemberMicroStrategy (MSTR) Stock Price Surged Over 60% in November
According to the MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR) stock chart:
→ At the start of November, the stock price was around $244;
→ Last Friday, it closed just below $395;
→ This represents a more than 60% increase in MSTR’s price over the month, making it one of the top performers on the U.S. stock market;
→ At its peak on 21 November, the stock traded above $520, reflecting a 115% surge in just three weeks.
Two key drivers supported the bullish sentiment:
1. Bitcoin holdings by MicroStrategy.
According to Benzinga, the company owns nearly 2% of the global Bitcoin supply, a figure projected to rise to 4% by 2023. The current surge in BTC/USD towards $100,000 has significantly increased MicroStrategy's value. Co-founder Michael Saylor stated that the company earns an average of $500 million daily from its Bitcoin investments.
2. Market capitalisation milestones.
In November, MicroStrategy's market capitalisation exceeded $100 billion for the first time. On this note, Seeking Alpha highlighted the potential for MicroStrategy's inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index. This could prompt large funds tracking the index to purchase MSTR shares for their portfolios.
Technical analysis of MSTR’s price chart indicates that since mid-September, price fluctuations have formed an ascending channel (marked in blue).
The decline from point A to B appears overly steep to be classified as a strict correction within the uptrend, which followed the achievement of extreme overbought conditions (visible on the RSI indicator).
While the stock rebounded upwards upon reaching the lower boundary of the channel (point B), the question remains whether the bulls can replicate November’s extraordinary success.
Buyers should exercise caution based on bearish price action around psychological levels:
→ The price failed to hold above $500.
→ On 22 November, the $450 level acted as resistance.
Meanwhile, according to TipRanks:
→ All 8 surveyed analysts recommend buying MSTR stock.
→ The average price target for MSTR is $494 within the next 12 months.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
MSTR Descending Channel + Support TestMSTR has been trending down since late last week, but is now coming into an important area of support around $370. There's good potential for bulls to hold here which should lead to a breakout above the channel and a move back up towards $490-$500. If it can't hold $370, that's not great but it would still have potential trendline support below along with previous consolidation from earlier in the month.
Bullish for now IMO, but not so much if it breaks below $370. Watching for a trend break in either direction.
$MSTR BULLTRAPThis chart highlights a significant move in MicroStrategy (MSTR) with key levels, patterns, and possible future price action. Here's a detailed analysis for TradingView:
Technical Analysis:
Historical Price Move (3 Months Ago):
Price started at $100 three months ago and surged to a high of $543.60, marking an impressive 429.44% (379.39%) gain.
Key Levels:
High: $543.60 (marked as 1 on the Fibonacci retracement).
Fibonacci Levels:
0.786: $453.87 (currently acting as a key resistance).
0.618: $383.43 (close to the current price; could act as support or resistance depending on price action).
0.5: $333.95 (next major support).
0.382: $284.47 (further downside support).
0.236: $223.25 (demand zone).
Recent Events:
On 21st November (Thursday), the price hit its peak and began a significant pullback.
A Bull Trap occurred, catching buyers off guard as the price reversed sharply after the rally.
Market Structure:
Multiple BOS (Break of Structure) points indicate bullish momentum earlier, but the pullback suggests a shift in sentiment.
Current price action shows consolidation near the 0.618 Fibonacci level, suggesting a decision point for the market.
Demand Zones:
Near $100: Strong demand zone where the rally initiated.
Around $223-$284: Potential zones of interest for buyers if the price retraces further.
Trade Ideas:
Bullish Scenario:
If the price holds above the 0.618 level ($383.43) and breaks above $453.87 (0.786 level), it could retest the highs near $543.60.
Bearish Scenario:
A breakdown below $383.43 could trigger a move towards $333.95 or even $284.47, aligning with the Fibonacci and previous demand zones.
Key Considerations:
Watch for volume spikes to confirm direction.
Monitor macroeconomic events or Bitcoin movements (as MicroStrategy holds significant Bitcoin reserves).
MSTR PL dot push and refreshThe essential element of the Drummond Geometry is the PL dot (Point and Line). This dot is a short term moving average that is calculated as the average of the last three candles averages of High, Low and Close. In Drumond Geometry, the open plays no role.
PL dot = Avg(Avg(H1,L1,C1) + Avg(H2,L2,C2) + Avg(H3,L3,C3))
The key difference with other moving averages is the fact that in the Drummond Geometry, the result of the above calculation is shifted by one bar in the future, thus one knows in advance where the PL dot is for the upcoming bar.
The PL dot is very responsive. When there is a trend, then the PL dot is sloping in the diretion of the trend (up or down) whereas if the PL dot is horizontal we have a congestion condition in the market.
The PL dot offen sits at the top or the bottom of the bar, pushing the price up or down in a so called "PL dot push". In the MSTR weekly view, one can see how the PL dot was support since September and was pushing the price up until now.
The trade one could have taken is to long around the PL dot and put a stop loss couple of point below. The target would be first the Envelope Top and if the PL dot had "sufficient strength" then the final target would have been in the Area 6 (Exhaust zone). One can see how the exhaust zone acted as resistance and made price go back to the PL dot for a "PL dot refresh". Thus when price strays away from the Pl dot, the second pattern to trade would be the "PL dot refresh".
Imagine the dot as container of energy which waxes and wanes depending on the curcomstances. So when price travels away from the PL dot, it tends to "refresh" itself and confir wheter there is still energy for the move to continue.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) Stock OverviewTimeframes Observed:
4-Hour Chart (Left):
The stock experienced a significant pullback after reaching a previous high of $543.
Current price action is consolidating within the highlighted yellow liquidity zone between approximately $328 and $390.
The Fibonacci retracement levels are clearly marked, with key levels at:
38.2% ($415): Indicates minor resistance.
50% ($439): A critical mid-level that could act as a pivot point.
61.8% ($463): A strong resistance zone if the stock retraces upwards.
The stock is hovering near the 23.6% retracement level ($383), which suggests buyers are defending this area.
10-Day Chart (Right):
The longer-term perspective shows a similar liquidity zone around $328 to $390, suggesting this area is critical for price stability and buyer accumulation.
The previous high ($543) is marked as a key resistance level, with expectations of a potential retest if the bullish momentum returns.
The Fibonacci extensions indicate upside targets, with a 1.618 extension at $667 and a 2.618 extension at $872, if bullish momentum sustains.
Key Insights:
Support Zones:
The stock is currently trading within a strong liquidity zone, which aligns with both timeframes, suggesting a solid base of support.
The $328 level is identified as a critical buy zone, as highlighted on the 10-day chart.
Resistance Levels:
The $383-$390 range (23.6% retracement) is being tested and could act as a pivot point for a potential upward move.
If momentum picks up, the next resistance levels to watch are $415 (38.2%), $439 (50%), and $463 (61.8%).
Market Behavior:
On the 4-hour chart, the stock is consolidating, showing potential signs of accumulation for a move higher.
On the 10-day chart, the stock is holding its bullish structure, indicating the recent pullback might be a healthy retracement within a larger upward trend.
Outlook:
Bullish Scenario: If the stock continues to build support in the current range and breaks above $390, it could target the higher Fibonacci levels, eventually leading to a retest of $543 and possibly new highs.
Bearish Scenario: If the stock fails to hold the liquidity zone around $328-$390, a deeper correction could occur, with further downside risks.
Microstrategy in Satoshis Nice retrace in sats after coming down from lofty heights. That MSTU pump was nuts. Where is the next higher swing high? Also, MSTU/MSTR is crossing 50% to parity between them. Look out for the 1 -test. Sat target above is a prior swing low, so the ratio should go for that. Everything according to plan
Head and shoulders knees and toes knees and toes.Feeling strong about this playing out. All the signs are there for the top being in and traps being set my MMs. Retail traders jerking eachother off bout to lose money.
MSTR Heading to $420RSI on a solid uptrend. Osilator turning up on a green wave to support RSI. Measured move up has already retraced to golden fib.
Breaking out/Retesting wedge currently, BTC on the run. We are heading up, soon and quickly
It’s Not Over Yet for $MSTR: New highs in Q1Looking at MicroStrategy NASDAQ:MSTR
I’m watching the $320-$330 range for a potential buy opportunity. This zone represents key support, and I believe it could be an ideal entry point for a potential bounce if it holds.
If that price zone fails to hold, I will be potentially looking to add below $300 to fill the gap.
