MSTR trade ideas
MSTR - Tuesday Nov 12 2024 - Bull Strategy PlayMicroStrategy shares jumped 26% after a $2 billion Bitcoin buy, raising total holdings to over $24 billion. The stock surged 960% since October 2023, hitting a 24-year high as Bitcoin neared $90,000. MicroStrategy has accumulated 279,420 BTC as a hedge against inflation, influencing other companies to adopt similar strategies.
MSTR stock is bullishbreaking trendline upward for MSTR stock indicating that this stock is bullish
according to the pattern we are expecting the price reach 161% fibo level
waiting for the result
MSTR Technical Analysis for Nov. 12, 2024Technical Analysis Breakdown:
Support and Resistance:
The price of MSTR is currently testing resistance at around $360. A confirmed break above this level could drive further upside momentum. The next key resistance is located at $380, which would be the target for a continuation of the uptrend. On the downside, immediate support is around $280, and a stronger support level can be found at $262.70, which could serve as a level to watch if the price experiences a pullback.
Indicators and Patterns:
RSI: Although the RSI isn’t visible on the chart, the recent price action indicates it might be nearing overbought levels, suggesting a possible pullback or consolidation if buyers start to lose momentum.
MACD: The MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover, signaling strength in the current uptrend. This bullish momentum may continue, but caution is advised if the MACD histogram starts to decrease, which could indicate weakening momentum.
EMA: Price is trading well above both the 9 and 21 EMAs, which confirms a strong uptrend. Staying above these EMAs supports the bullish case, while a breakdown below them would indicate potential short-term weakness.
Chart Pattern: The price action resembles a bullish channel, and it is currently testing the upper boundary. This could lead to either a breakout above or a retracement towards the middle or lower boundary of the channel.
Trade Setup:
Entry: I’m looking to enter around $360 on a confirmed breakout or to consider a long entry if the price pulls back and holds support at around $280.
Stop Loss: A protective stop is set at $275, just below the $280 support, to manage risk if there’s a false breakout.
Target: The first target is $380, with a second target at $400 if the bullish momentum continues.
Risk/Reward:
This setup offers a favorable 2:1 risk/reward ratio. With a clear stop-loss and defined targets, the trade has a solid potential for gains while managing risk.
Conclusion:
With MSTR testing resistance at $360 and indicators suggesting strong bullish momentum, the setup looks promising for a potential breakout. However, watch for any signs of exhaustion or a pullback if the price struggles to break this level. Ensure sound risk management by using stop-losses and position sizing.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is not financial advice. Please do your own research before making any trades. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
MicrostrategyMicrostrategy touched a new all-time high today. So far, the chart pattern is all consolidation sideways. Now, the bullish phase begins, and I look to the past amplitude of the chart to give me some indication of what is possible, and I apply game theory to get to $10,000 test. It can go higher, but $10,000 is 2/3rds of the way from the “neckline” to the “tech target. It’s a good place to sell.
Opening (IRA): MSTR 180/210/410/440 Iron Condor... for a 6.03 credit.
Comments: High IV at 95.8%. Here, going delta neutral, 1/10th the price of the underlying for my wing width, and setting up my short option strikes at the 16 delta on both sides.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 6.03
Buying Power Effect: 23.97
ROC at Max: 25.16%
50% Max: 3.02
ROC at 50% Max: 12.58%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll in untested side on side test.
MSTR heads up at $187.88: Golden Genesis a good exit cuz may dipThis is a follow up to my previous chart and entry call (click).
MSTR launched from our "Decision Zone" in previous chart.
Now approaching a major landmark, a Golden Genesis fib.
Scalpers should take profits, Holders should sell some there.
$287.88 is the exact level to watch for TP.
$261.94 is a minor ratio for aggressive SL.
$245.95 is strong ratio for conservative SL.
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Previous Analysis:
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Microstrategy incororated gives brakeout on daily chartNASDAQ:MSTR
Microstrategy incororated gives brakeout on daily chart
Buy near 240
sl 125
target 370
MSTR: Is there any value here?MicroStrategy Incorporated ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) has a current BTC balance of 252,220, with plans released during the October ‘24 earnings call to issue both $21 billion in equity and $21 billion in debt to finance further BTC purchases through 2026.
The question becomes, is there value here? If the price of MSTR becomes increasingly dependent on the price of BTC, then why not just buy the underlying asset? The latter can likely already be answered. The price is entirely dependent. As noted in the company’s earnings call and outlined in the excerpt from the CoinGeek article below, MSTR’s software business has taken a backseat as the company has completely shifted its focus toward its BTC plan.
“On October 30, MicroStrategy released its Q3 financial report card, revealing a sharp decline in revenue from its (formerly) core business intelligence software business, while expenses and net losses saw significant increases. Software revenue for the three months ending September 30 fell 10.3% year-on-year, while the rising costs of that revenue resulted in a net loss of $18.5 million.”
During the call, Executive Chairman Michael Saylor insisted that MSTR is not purely a BTC proxy. Looking at the price performance for the past year, you can see that MSTR has outperformed BTC by a multiple greater than 4. As markets tend to do, this is likely the pricing in of future acquisitions. Unlike ETPs (or people, for that matter), MSTR has placed itself in a unique position, with the ability to utilize the various avenues of capital markets to increase its holdings. While this is fundamentally opportunistic, the increase in shares dilutes existing shareholder ownership, reducing their proportional share of MSTR's overall equity. However, given the long-term potential appreciation of BTC, the value of the underlying asset may offset this dilution, ultimately providing greater returns despite the increase in outstanding shares. This is no different than any other growth-oriented company, albeit Apple, NVIDIA, etc., actually produces something. If the price of the underlying asset goes down, this further decreases the BTC value per share, leading to a potential point of clarity for shareholders asking themselves, “why not just own the underlying asset?”
Looking ahead, I do think MSTR provides a unique opportunity. Inevitably, given the scenario described above, the stock will continue to face elevated volatility (something that the company has noted as a positive). Given future declines in the price of the underlying asset (presumably in 2026 and 2027), this allows MSTR to accumulate more BTC, reducing its cost basis and optimistically allowing investors to enjoy increased volatility to the upside yet again.
MSTRThe bullish case for MicroStrategy (MSTR) appears compelling. While the company has already experienced significant growth this year, several potential catalysts suggest further upside:
Bitcoin Market Dynamics
We're potentially entering the final phase of the Bitcoin bull cycle
The company's significant Bitcoin holdings position it to benefit from any price appreciation
Market Environment
Current market conditions suggest a potentially reflexive period ahead
Bitcoin price projections from analysts range from $220,000 to $500,000
Corporate Development
Recent earnings call highlighted a substantial $42 billion acquisition
This strategic move could significantly impact the company's valuation
Given these factors, MSTR's valuation could see substantial multiplication from current levels.
MSTR 10x From HereThis fractal compares the current price action of MSTR to its price action in 2021, during the previous Bitcoin bull market. This time, it is moving slower, so the time interval was adjusted to 1 week instead of 1 day. The next base consolidation target is around December 2024, with a top expected around April-June 2025.
MSTR - 2024's Best High Beta PlayAfter entering NASDAQ:MSTR at $200 in January of 2023, it is evident that MicroStrategy shines as the ideal stock to generate profit day after day. Given its high beta nature and volatility based on Bitcoin's movement, we can price NASDAQ:MSTR in a manner that is fixed to Bitcoin's price.
The reasoning is that MicroStrategy believes, and has believed, that CRYPTOCAP:BTC is the most appropriate store of value now and in the future.
It appears that they may be correct.
I am anticipating NASDAQ:MSTR to surpass $1750-1775 and reach $2,000.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC should hit $75,000 at that point.
This is where I will decide to sell off some shares in anticipation of a price correction down to $800-$1250 per share of $MSTR. At this time, I believe Bitcoin will fall to 52K to 55K. It should, in order to make sense, considering liquidity in the market.
As of 3/13/2024, it costs $42,000-$47,000 USD to mine 1 CRYPTOCAP:BTC , based on the average cost of electricity globally.
I believe we will see a very common "sell the news" event come April prior to, or during, the halving. Bitcoin will correct.
The halving will double the complexity to mine one Bitcoin, which will push the electricity cost to the range of $84,000-$95,000 USD.
This will be the next gap up, and Bitcoin will continue to reach historical highs.
Stay tuned.
Opening (IRA): MSTR Dec 20th 75/155 Short Put Vertical... for a 5.43 credit.
Comments: High IVR/IV at 61.1/113.9. Doing something a little different here, selling the 10 delta short put and buying a put that cuts BPE in about half over doing a naked. Going low delta because, well, the underlying kind of scares the poo out of me.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect: 74.57
Max Profit: 5.43
ROC at Max: 7.28%
50% Max: 2.72
ROC at 50% Max: 3.64
Compare:
Dec 20th 155 Short Put (Cash Secured)
BPE: 148.30
Max Profit: 6.65
ROC at Max: 4.48%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max.
Ticker: $MSTR Pinbar daily close NASDAQ:MSTR
A potential pinbar candle is forming on the daily chart, which could signal a bullish reversal. A pinbar candle is a strong indicator of potential price direction change, often showing that buyers have regained control after a period of selling pressure. However, a pinbar candle alone may lack significance if it forms in a neutral area of the chart with little trading context.
In this case, the pinbar has formed at a strong support level, which previously acted as resistance. This alignment with a key level enhances the pinbar’s strength as a reversal signal. Support and resistance levels are crucial for analyzing price action, as they often act as zones where buying or selling pressure increases. When a pinbar appears at such a significant level, it suggests that bulls are stepping in to defend this area, increasing the likelihood of an upward movement.
If the pinbar closes above or near the support level, it could confirm a solid buy signal, particularly if other indicators align.
BTC is also holding a similar strong support level - let’s see if the bulls can retake the wheel!
MicroStrategy "Micro" Mania.MicroStrategy "Micro" Mania.
Distance from 36 day moving average unwinding.
Peak FOMO most likely behind us.
The trap is set.
#mstr #bitcoin @saylor
MSTR short idea
NASDAQ:MSTR : introduction to gravity about to take place.
Massive blue channel must hold, or it's lights-out.
Hold onto your hamburgers.
MicroStrategy is buying additional $42 billion worth of BTCMicroStrategy announced its plans to buy more Bitcoin: $42 billion worth of BTC.
Why does it matter to us? After the purchase, over 3% of the Bitcoin supply will be held by a single company. Other companies are also adding BTC to their balance sheet. Countries are also doing it. BUT Bitcoin is scarce.
So far, in total, NASDAQ:MSTR has invested $9.9B into Bitcoin; this investment will be more than 4x that figure.
MicroStrategy is currently valued at $50.11B, which means that BTC has been playing an important role in increasing shareholder value.
Michael Saylor announced "raising $42 billion of capital over the next 3 years, comprised of $21 billion of equity and $21 billion of fixed income securities".
Don't Change That Channel!Can MSTR stay in the this rising channel for another six weeks? It would seem unlikely, but so was their stock price rising 507% in the past year. I guess 200% from here is possible, especially if Bitcoin performs as predicted and hits $100K this year. We shall see.
MSTR multiple reversal signalsMSTR showing multiple reversal signal. The Bitcoin ATH and US Election hypes are running out. Expecting a pull back here back to 190.
MicroStrategy earningsMSTR earnings are today, Wednesday 10/30 at 4pm. I'm posting this as a short because there's no logical reason for MicroStrategy to have such a drastic divergence from Bitcoin since September. With BTC +68% YTD at all time high levels and MSTR +280% YTD there's just no point being long MSTR all the way up here around 260 / share. The market can stay irrational longer than I think. However, MSTR is way past the point of a good risk : reward long in my opinion. If you're not a trader and are a perma Bitcoin bull, better off selling MSTR and putting the proceeds into BTC before this thing drops. This is my bias speculation. I'm curious to see how far the market will push MSTR beyond all common sense.
MSTR financials
Q1-24 EPS $-0.31
Q2-24 EPS $-0.57
Q3-24 EPS estimate $-0.11
MSTR options data
11/1/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 23,648
Call Volume Total 33,277
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.71
Put Open Interest Total 158,229
Call Open Interest Total 157,110
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.01
11/8/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 3,352
Call Volume Total 6,089
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.55
Put Open Interest Total 22,599
Call Open Interest Total 26,203
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.86
11/15/24 expiry
Put Volume Total2,413
Call Volume Total4,087
Put/Call Volume Ratio0.59
Put Open Interest Total160,616
Call Open Interest Total142,239
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.13
MSTR - Next Stop $1I was going to say zero but I'll be nice and say $1. Saylor is going to bust MSTR like he did in the dotcom and take Bitcoin down with it.
MSTR back at Dotcom supply, I would not want to hold or buy this here, this won't get pretty I'm afraid.
MSTR earnings vs significant purchase announementsEarnings in yellow, >200mm purchase announcements in green against BTC
