Nio - It's his time to change the EV conception?Nio has developed a Wyckoff accumulation pattern, which started one year ago. The key level remains at $4.50, signaling the start of the next wave in this Elliott Cycle (3rd wave). Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension could help us identify key levels for this potential movement. It's important to note that this is just a probability, and nothing is certain yet.
What about the company ?
NIO is a Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer that has gained significant attention in recent years, particularly for its innovative approach to battery technology and its premium EV offerings. Founded in 2014, NIO has positioned itself as a major player in the global EV market, particularly in China, and is looking to expand its presence internationally.
Over the past three years, NIO has shown impressive growth in terms of vehicle deliveries. In 2021, the company delivered over 91,000 vehicles, a substantial increase from the 43,000 vehicles delivered in 2020. In 2022, NIO continued its upward trajectory, delivering over 122,000 vehicles, marking a strong year despite global supply chain challenges.
One of NIO's most innovative features is its battery swapping technology, which sets it apart from many other EV manufacturers. Instead of relying solely on traditional charging methods, NIO offers a Battery as a Service (BaaS) model. This allows customers to swap their depleted battery for a fully charged one at one of NIO's battery swap stations. This process takes just a few minutes, significantly reducing the waiting time compared to traditional charging stations.
This battery swapping system is part of NIO's strategy to address some of the main challenges associated with electric vehicles, such as long charging times and the high cost of battery replacement. It also allows NIO to offer vehicles at a lower upfront cost, as the battery is leased separately. This innovative system has the potential to revolutionize the EV market by offering a more convenient and flexible solution for drivers.
NIO's focus on advanced technology, luxury EVs, and battery swapping has made it a strong competitor in the growing electric vehicle industry. With plans for further expansion into Europe and possibly the U.S., NIO’s innovative approach to the EV market could play a key role in the future of electric transportation.
NIO trade ideas
$NIO Short-term play; touched the .618 fib-retracement level.For the short term, I see NIO rising further on wave 3-5.
Additionally, I see a bull flag playing out.
It could even propel us out of this pattern.
But if it breaks out, can NIO also push through this larger resistance line?
And this one?
All I see is confluence.
Good luck to all.
$NIO Will a similar OBV and Volume pattern lead to a rally?Pay attention to the recent OBV structure (blue). Declining and forming a flat bottom.
The volume in pink displays the same characteristics during each stage of the Inverse H&S pattern: forming an initial peak during the left shoulder, a higher one during the formation of the head (although the head of the current pattern is accompanied by lower volume, but I have an explanation for it), and then peaking during the formation of the second touch of the base, at the start of the right shoulder. Finally, the volume dives along with the last peak of the structure before leaving the pattern altogether.
Additionally, notice how the Weinstein 30-week indicator is finding a bottom here.
During the 'head' or second dip, NIO's price declined on lower volume than in 2019. I can see it as a change of character. It looks like NIO didn't take this dip seriously this time.
$NIO The OBV is showing signs of a squeezeWatching the OBV, I notice that it has tanked recently forming a wedge.
Usually stocks build up the pressure, release it on the OBV, and the stock price rallies for months if it plays out on a long-term chart, as is the case with NIO.
I'm expecting a rally to $30-$40 in the coming months.
The algos have awoken. $NIO Short term squeeze?As soon as the Weinstein 30-week indicator trended up on the 1-minute chart (first time since the start of January), price rallied by 1% and heavy call buying pushed the options premium to the bullish territory.
As a result, the indicator is trending up on the 30-minute chart for the first time since last November. I think that a squeeze is highly likely to occur over the next few days.
$NIO Triple dives, a repeat of 2020-2021. Bears in hibernation.During the first dive, volume is at its lowest. It dips slightly during the formation of the second dive in the middle, then gradually rises as the final shake-off takes shape, eventually reaching a high point.
Observe what's happening, a divergence between price and the On Balance Volume.
2020 // While the stock formed lower lows, the OBV stayed near the same level. During the first dive (part of a triple dive pattern), NIO’s On-Balance Volume kept declining until the second dive formed, after which it began to rise.
2025 // The OBV forms higher highs with each dive. While the price is making lower lows against a descending resistance line, the OBV is trending higher. Why is the price dropping when the OBV has reached the same level? I’m sensing a reversal is on the horizon.
The OBV is acting up.
What do you think? I'm very bullish.
$NIO Fibonacci Analysis. Reversal is coming.Placing the fib-retracement tool on the top of the chart and the recent bottom, I see that many level coincide with the support and resistance areas on NIO's chart.
Short-term, I see NYSE:NIO breaking out of this falling wedge:
It takes ~140 days for the third dive to play out. (Inverse H&S pattern, IMO).
See my previous post for a more in-depth explanation:
NIO Price movements seem Bullish ... Trap ?Summary of NIO's current technical picture.
Short-Term Bullish Breakout: On the 4-hour chart, NIO price broke above a trendline, suggesting potential upward momentum. However, the retest of the trendline is a crucial moment. If the price holds above the trendline, it confirms the breakout and could lead to further gains.
Strong Support Level: The price is currently at a significant support level, which also coincides with the 80-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). This confluence of support factors increases the likelihood of a price bounce.
Long-Term Uptrend: The 5-day chart shows that NIO is trading above a long-term support trendline with an upward slope. This indicates a prevailing uptrend over a longer timeframe. The recent bounce off this trendline further strengthens this bullish scenario.
Overall Interpretation:
The combination of these factors suggests a potentially bullish outlook for NIO. The short-term breakout, the strong support level, and the long-term uptrend all point towards possible upward price movement. However, the retest of the 4-hour trendline is a critical juncture.
Key Points to Watch:
Trendline Retest: Closely monitor how the price behaves at the retested trendline. A successful hold above the trendline would be a positive sign.
Support Level: The support level and the 80 SMA should act as a strong floor. A break below this level could negate the bullish scenario.
Volume: Observe the trading volume during the retest. Increased volume during the bounce would further confirm the strength of the support level.
NIO Inc May Start a New Trend to the Upside. NIOI really like the divergences on the new low on more than one occasion and an encompassing divergence between the first low and the very last one. This is a common set piece in these type of complex corrections, where the Elliott count proves to be problematic. I am confident of a high chance of a profitable long, because almost simultaneously there is a flip on BB%PCT, VZO and Stoch/RSI, plus a MIDAS line course. I used Fibonacci clusters to paint some stationary goals.
$NIO is looking very explosive.Nio has seen a long period of consolidation and the sentiment is at all time lows, it seems.
I think that the stock is in the 'depressive' phase where holders are exhausted, and accumulation is taking place. I'm betting on a breakout to $10, and then $40 on a long-term rally.
$NIO Price will see a rally to $30 during the coming China rallyNYSE:NIO is an EV maker in China, that moves close to AMEX:KWEB and other ETFs.
We didn't see the stock price move like during this TVC:HSI or NYSE:BABA rally, where the large Chinese equities were bid up this week. Instead, NIO has stayed flat.
Looking at the historic structure, and NIO's pattern today, I compare them and form a conclusion that this marks the beginning of the rally.
I think that the bottom is in, and that this 'triple dives' pattern represents a large reversal pattern, dating back 1 year. Just come back to this chart 12 months from now, and tell me what you think.
Update:
Look at the tilt of the support lines and compare them to each other.
NIO - Double Bullish DragonReal clean chart here, with nearly identical bear trends coming off the highs, making the 3rd higher low here. Expectation here, so long as 4.09 holds up, would be a test into 4.84 next, with resolution to the range high around 6.00.
Theres a target up there around 8.20 for a Cypher pattern but above 6 bucks, id be looking for the measured move of the initial double bottom and potential to reach 12.31, for the external 1.618 extension.
Cant say my confidence is in the company, but the chart is telling me someones accumulating this asset, with the intention to distribute higher.
NIO Stock Ready to Soar: Breakout Above $7.50 on the Horizon!NIO (NYSE: NIO) is poised for a massive surge as it completes an ABC correction, with the C-wave forming an ending diagonal. From the current price of $4.43, we anticipate a strong breakout, pushing the stock past the $7.50 resistance and igniting further bullish momentum.
⚡ Key Levels to Watch:
🔹 Bullish Target: $7.50+
🔹 Invalidation Level: Any drop below $4.02
If NIO holds above $4.02, this rally could be the beginning of something BIG!
$NIO A massive Rising Channel & Wyckoff Accumulation
NYSE:NIO has been in a downtrend for over 1,450 days—could it finally be time to shine? ⌛️
A massive rising channel: early projection based on top pivots and potential mid-range pivots. 👀
Hey community, do you still believe in NYSE:NIO ?
Are you holding 💎🖐️ and staying unfazed by the downtrend?
I may not open a Short Trade in my life!This would be shocking news for most of my followers since we made decent money doing that in 2021-2022, but let me explain the mathematics behind it.
Before diving into the mathematics, let me tell you I will buy a Naked Put if there is a high conviction for an asset's future lower price.
Let me explain the risk-reward profiles for long and short positions:
Long Position:
When you buy an asset (go long), you purchase it hoping its value will increase
Maximum loss: Limited to your initial investment (if asset goes to $0)
For example, if you buy a stock at $100, your maximum loss is $100 per share
Maximum gain: Theoretically unlimited, as the asset's price can keep rising
If the stock goes to $200, $300, $1000+, your profit keeps growing
Short Position:
When you short an asset, you borrow and sell it, hoping to repurchase it cheaper later
Maximum gain: Limited to your initial sale price (if the asset goes to $0)
For example, if you short a stock at $100, your maximum gain is $100 per share
Maximum loss: Theoretically unlimited, as the asset's price can keep rising
If the stock rises to $200, you lose $100; at $300, you lose $200, and so on
The asymmetric risk-reward comes from math:
Long positions: Asset can't go below $0, but has no upper limit
Short positions: Can only profit until $0, but losses grow with each price increase
Shorting comes with several additional costs that make it more expensive than going long:
Borrowing Costs (Short Interest)
You must pay interest to borrow the shares you're shorting
Rates can range from very low (0.25%) to very high (50%+) annually for hard-to-borrow stocks
This cost reduces your profits or increases losses over time
Margin Requirements
Need to maintain a margin account with collateral
Higher margin requirements for short positions (typically 150% of position value)
Risk of margin calls if the position moves against you
Dividend Payments
Short sellers must pay any dividends to the lender of the shares
This is an additional cost that long position holders don't face
Can significantly impact profitability for high-dividend stocks
Stock Recall Risk
The lender can recall their shares at any time
This may force you to close your position at unfavorable prices
It is particularly risky during short squeezes
These costs mean that even if your directional view is correct, you might still lose money on a short position due to holding costs.
Asymmetrical Moves
"Markets take the stairs up but the elevator down"
The opposite happens more often!
During bubble collapses and market crashes:
Downside moves can be gradual as denial, hope, and orderly selling create a stepped decline
Some investors average down, providing temporary support
Circuit breakers and trading halts can slow dramatic falls
During upside rallies, especially short squeezes:
Price can explode upward very rapidly as shorts rush to cover
Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) creates buying panic
Margin calls force immediate buying
Limited available shares can cause bidding wars
Historical Examples:
GameStop (GME) in 2021: Rose from ~$20 to $483 in just a few weeks
Volkswagen in 2008: Briefly became the world's most valuable company during a squeeze
Tesla's multiple rallies in 2020: Several sharp upward moves that hurt short sellers
This faster upward movement makes short positions particularly dangerous because:
Less time to react to adverse moves
Higher likelihood of getting caught in a short squeeze
Margin calls can come suddenly with little time to add funds.
A most recent example: is RGTI my best Idea on the platform got 16x in less than 100 days!
$NIO yieahhhAnother Chinese company. They are all beat down
can they get beat down further? - yes
can it sink down? - yes
am I scared? - yieaahh
will I still go in? - yieahhh
1. Awesome R/R
2. Came down on a clear A-B-C
3. Monthly MACD trending green
4. Monthly RSI on a triangle, as soon as this breaks we will see a direction and will be fast, should be soon as we approach apex.
5. Monthly RSI, I like it right now touching the SMA and hopeful that it will use it as a trampolin
6. Weekly RSI not on this idea, seems to have broken up and is now coming down to retest the broken trendline, which I like
7. Hopeful to see a catalyst to send us to $9 quick which ison the next volume shelf, 23% retracement fib from previous high to low, close to the SMA. A lot of confluence here.
Be safe out there, this name is vol-a-tile-yieahhh