Rivian Could Be Forming a RangeElectric vehicles have been in focus since the Inflation Reduction Act boosted green-energy incentives. Let’s check out Rivian Automotive, the truck maker trying to stabilize after a big slide.
The main pattern on today’s chart is a parallel channel forming between roughly $30.80 and $40. RIVN initially bounced at the low in mid-June before proceeding to a four-month high. It pulled back to retest that low in late August before rebounding to $40. The stock ended last week back near the bottom of the range. Will investors look for the recent low to provide support?
Next, stochastics are nearing an oversold condition. RIVN’s bounce in early September followed a rebound from the oversold low. Traders may watch the oscillator for clues again.
Third, in addition to the channel, price is trying to bounce at the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). That could suggest its longer-term trend is getting more bullish.
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RIVN trade ideas
Last Chance to Buy Rivian Before Major Bull RunThis is a daily chart of EV manufacturer Rivian Automotive ( RIVN ).
Price continues to consolidate as the moving averages converge.
On the right-hand side is the indicator called the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP). This indicator provides a vertical histogram of volume. The volume bars help identify the price ranges where most volume has occurred, which helps traders identify areas of support and resistance.
The indicator provides a red line to show the exact price level with the greatest trading volume and therefore the strongest point of support or resistance. When price comes down, as in the case of Rivian, and then forms a red line on the VRVP, it often becomes an important support level. An extremely bullish perspective might even go so far as to surmise that this area of support is the bottom for Rivian and that a major bull run is about to unfold with this red line as its support area.
From a Wyckoff analysis, one might conclude that accumulation is occurring. According to that analysis, price can retest the low right before the breakout phase.
Also, note Rivian's outperformance in the month of June. Even as inflation and commodities were soaring, major indices were gapping down, and the Fed was accelerating hiking rates, Rivian continued to consolidate, trading in a tight range and making higher lows (see below chart).
Rivian's outperformance of the broader index, after such a prolonged decline, is probably an early sign of a trend reversal and likely reflects that smart money is accumulating. A good chartist would know that inflation is cooling because commodities are now being resisted by the lines that once supported their upward trend. Necessarily, aggressive interest rate hike expectations will soon cool, too. The market is always forward-looking. By the time the Fed says that inflation is cooling and makes a pivot to being less aggressive, smart money will already be fully in the market.
Therefore, there is high confidence that Rivian may soon break out to the upside (probably in July). Don't let a temporary oscillation to the downside fool you. Nonetheless, as always, have your stop losses in place as the market can act irrationally longer than you can stay solvent. Never be unwilling to accept that you're wrong. Trading isn't about being right, it's about preserving and growing capital.
Update for RivianLast week I described us being in wave 2(black). This is still a valid count and my primary theory until proven wrong. Beyond the line I have marked and it invalidates my theory. At that time my Alt count(orange) becomes my primary for a target of $43.24-44.64 and end of Wave 5.
If I am correct and this is still a Wave 2, then tomorrow won't be a great day for Rivian. It would mean we are starting our descent in Wave 3 and our next price target for a potential long opportunity is at $24.62. To trade during this time is counter trend trading....during a Wave 4....which is very risky.
Wave 2 & 4 always alternate. Meaning if our Wave 2 is deep, Wave 4 "should" be shallow.
💰 GOOD LUCK TO ALL 💰
--TSuth
RIVN - Trending upRIVN had a high volume capitulation at the start of July and has since been forming higher low's and higher high's (apparent on weekly chart).
It has retraced to retest the neckline support on 1st Sep (@ 30.70) forming a new higher low. The up trend is now apparent and clearly there is room to go higher in the mid to longer term
Expect some resistance around 40-41, however it is unlikely to breach the recent low at 30.70.
One can use fibonnacci retracement find likely supports for any near term retracements. Retracements of no more than 50% of the upswing is preferred and a sign that the uptrend momentum is intact.
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
Forecast for RivianThis is my first post and I am still a novice. Any differing ideas please let me know. You can't learn without being challenged. Hopefully this helps someone out there.
Wave 1 and 2 are clearly visible here. Knowing the length of Wave 1 helps us to determine/predict where Wave 3 will end.
$24.62 is the 1.618 Fib line of Wave 1. This would be a good place to take a long position for a Wave 4 retrace.
RIVN Descending Megaphone Pattern SHORTRIVN is in a slow down trending pattern right now within a megaphone
reflecting increasing volatility. The MACD shows the downward momentum
with more of the histogram negative below the zero level.
At present, the K / D lines are crossing over and above the histogram.
characteristic of a reversal to the downside.
Based on pivots in June and July, the horizontal support is at ~ $30.
Accordingly, a target on a short trade setup is just before $30.
This appears to be a good short trade setup where Rivian is
following the downtrend of the sector leader TSLA.
$RIVN - A lot of classical technical analysis nuggetsAnother trendy asset. Of course I had to take a look at through the lens of my favorite timeframes (W-M-3M)
I did not find a satisfactory swing trade in these time frames from a risk to reward perspective.
I did find though a lot of classical technical analysis nuggets worth noting for savvy technical analysis learners out there.
They are pretty much ostensible in the chart with comments laid.
Regarding my bias and analysis of the current stat of the market:
1. Market structure:
Market just broke out its downward sloping trendline. Theory and logic entails that what follows is an accumulation phase, a ranging market preceding.
In ranging markets we stack the odds on our side in case we buy at support and sell at resistance. Provided of course we get the triggers.
2. What is support and resistance here:
Price volume divergence as highlighted, preceded by a RSI bullish divergence + trendline breakout + wide bullish candle at support back in July advocate that support / demand are in the $20/30 range.
3. Trigger?
Already past us. It emerged back in July. Right now judging by the logical place where we ought to place our stop loss (below support with enough buffer) and the logical place where we ought to place our take profit (at resistance - purple area above), then a swing trade does not make sense right now from a risk to reward perspective.
Of course you can always, provided you know what you are doing, rely on the strong bullish signal we are getting from this support area and buy to hold for a long long time until price reaches its ATH for instance (where there is an ostensible supply area).
A lot of scenarios are possible. Bear in mind though, that if you are bullish here, there are a lot of overhead obstacles.
Just manage risk at all times, at all costs. This must override any other principle.
earnings on deck for $RIVN beaten down growthFundamentally we all know that RIVN was overvalued from day one and was in many ways a poster child for the growth at all costs movement of 2020/21. However, after shedding 80% of its value perhaps it is finding some interest. Like most growth names it has picked up in recent weeks but still faces overhead supply on any large bull run.
All that said I have seen a fair number of their trucks on the roads of Colorado this summer and sales will eventually broaden. As long as they can keep up on both manufacturing and company management this may in the long run prove to be a good buy. I will be waiting for earnings before making a move myself.
RIVIAN About to break its 3 month Channel upwardsBack in May we called for a short-term buy on Rivian (RIVN) but warned investors not to get overexcited:
This time however we find quite a few reasons to be excited as following the break above its Falling Wedge, the stock formed a Channel Up that is about to break upwards on today's strong rise. Within this Channel, the price also succeeded in breaking above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and in fact a Bullish Cross between the two is emerging.
The 1W RSI has been steadily rising from its previous oversold state and is now above the 40.00 mark, so if the price breaks above the Channel Up, we expect RIVN to aim for the 56.90 March 30 High, which is the current Resistance. A break above that level, which happens to be on the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level form the market Top, would constitute a long-term trend shift to bullish.
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RIVN - Hourly Thoughts RIVN has broken out of a long downtrend for the first time (dashed line)
This break out in my opinion will be short lived and a retest above this line will occur
This retest will also result in a double bottom along a horizontal
Double curved line indicates my thoughts on price action
If a retest does not result, break out further will ensue
RIVN ShortIn downtrend, bounce back to resistance
Trendline break + retest
Earning 8/19/2022 Estimate -1.6
Short 30
Stop 38
Target 10
Risk management is much more important than a good entry point.
I am not a PRO trader.
In my trading plan, the Max Risk of each short term trade should be less than 1% of an account.