SHOP valued ~56x revenue...No chart analysis needed for such an overvalued stock.
Pros for SHOP: high-growth sector, profitable, tech based, backed by big funding, decent branding.
Cons for SHOP: EV ~56x revenue, limited capturable market, weak monetization scheme, low market share.
I expect Shopify stock to crash spectacularly within 1-2 years, conditioned on one of two things happening:
1. A major recession kills non-essential online consumer spending.
2. Revenue does not increase considerably to justify lofty valuation.
Without immense Xx revenue growth the fundamentals of this stock will continue to be incredibly overvalued.
Only serious potential I see in this companies current valuation is if it makes more strategic partnerships like it's deal with Walmart. The deal with Walmart has seemingly increased quarterly revenue considerably, but despite this, Shopify's monetization scheme and relatively small market share make them a ripe target for acquisition (Not at 140b valuation of course) or challenges from rivals in the tech space (Amazon).
Quick comparison to Shopifys closest rival: MercadoLibre (80B market cap).
MercadoLibre EV/R ratio: 24.5x (half of Shopify's)
MercadoLibre Revenue: 2.2B (19')
MercadoLibre 2020 estimated revenue: 3.2B
Shopify 2019 revenue: 1.5B
Shopify 2020 estimated revenue: 2.8B
Yet Mercadolibre's market capitalization is 60b less than Shopify.. Shopify as a company isn't hot garbage, but it's stock valuation sure is.
PRICE target: $400 by 3/15/2021
SHOP trade ideas
SHOPIFY - SHOP - took full loss on Iron ButterflySHOPIFY - SHOP - took full loss on Iron Butterfly
ugh... i hate it when that happens, but .. it's one of those trades. You go into it knowing that it's a low probability trade.
Would you have taken this trade? Comment below.
$SHOP Shopify $1345 Breakout Target
SHOP had a amazing breakout yesterday above the downtrend and closed at a ATH.
The rally stalled at a Fibonacci 1-2-1 target $1165
Today could very well see a move to $1200.
Above which we have major Fibonacci confluence at $1230-$1235.
$1337-$1345 Medium term target.
SHOP , Short I don't like shorting this in the holiday season when they will likely have increased transactions but at the same time right now we have a nice technical entry and P/E not looking so good.
For me, this justifies a short position . They could very well out perform and go higher too but I think a short is the better play going into 2022.
Good luck ~
It's Holiday Season, Go SHOP !!!SHOP has consolidated properly in last few months. It's time it will move up very soon very fast!!!
First Target 1200
Final target 1450
Stop price 1020
$SHOP - Long above 1113 - #SHOPThere's a huge resistance line at 1113. I intend on going long above 1113 and take partial profit around 1142, the previous ATH. I'll likley leave some runners to aim for 1200.
SHOP: Triple top, or likely +500 soon!Super clear here... if you don’t have the Shop app to track your packages, try it out! I’m going heavy on Shop in 2021 if markets can keep pushing... very strong setup upon breakout. Although a quick dip prior to next jump is possible with market wide correction, this may also get forced higher at the same time.
SHOPIFY - SHOP - Weird Iron ButterflySHOPIFY - SHOP - Weird Trade Idea
I put on a Iron Butterfly with the short legs @ $1000.
What do you think about this trade?
Yay? Nay?
Personally, I put on this trade because the risk/reward was pretty good and it was based on technical analysis.
SHOP - Following in SPOT’s footstepsSHOP has been consolidating like crazy on the weekly chart, setting up for an explosive breakout. Setting an alert near the 1110-1120 levels for a massive breakout play. This has the potential to hit 1300+ on breakout of the weekly flag. Don’t miss this one!
SHOP - December 12, 2020SHOP is set to dominate the global ecommerce space and will benefit drastically from the recent pandemic. Had a nice selloff last week, looking for another dip shortly and take a long opportunity.
SHOP setting up for a good long term holdGood pull back after testing all time highs. Wait for it to fall below 1000 for the best price or start scaling in today for long term. Sp 830.
Shopify Short Daily D Extension achieved and B boundary has been formed. Once a breakout of consolidation occurs, looking for a short opportunity to at least the 38.2 possibly 61.8 retracement level before a continuation to the upside.
1500 Magnet on SHOP?Just finished a really nice trade on SHOP into 886 posted on Nov 27th. Its now time to starting thinking about a break of this 4.5 month range.
If price can breakout from this box the upside is huge. First targets would be the extensions then the measured move to 1450.
The market still seems to love large whole numbers so who knows...maybe 1500. Needs to break the box cleanly on volume first. This will be the 4th test of this level so its best to be patient as it can easily fall back into the range. See previous post.
Great Breakthrough setupGreat Breakthrough setup
I think shopify has a great potential and is well known already. In addition, the chart is showing my favorite chart pattern of a breakthrough scenario. A really nice and long side-trend and it looks like this time it can get through. This gives a nice risk/reward setup of 9 ! This can lead to a 50% increase in some month.
That’s my opinion and should be treated like it. No trade advice!
