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Sundial Growers Inc.

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SNDL trade ideas

$1 Call 1/15? Am I crazy?I've recently shared an analysis on my prediction for SNDL climbing to $1.20 which I still fully support. However...I did not have $2,000 riding on that prediction happening by 1/15. The chances of catching this breakout this week are still looking good (+3.88% 1/11; +30% Trailing 5 days; +222% last 3m) but I am now 2 days past my prediction date. So now I'm forced to put my money where my mouth is and I'm interested to see what you would do in my situation. So in teaching my cousin how to place options orders, I accidentally bought 20 x $1 call options with expiry date 1/15 for SNDL...In short, I wasn't paying attention while explaining and thought I selected a $0.5 strike. Faced with the decision to take an 88.8% loss to sell the contracts at $0.01 or wait until Friday and risk losing it all, I've had to put a price on my own confidence in fundamental and technical analysis. At $0.71 close on 1/11, assuming SNDL finishes flat by Friday, I will effectively take a $300 loss up front and miss out on reclaiming those losses in that potential price action as we move to $1. However, eating the contract will cost me $200 and I'll be left with 0 shares in hand during what has the potential to be the biggest move SNDL has made since its IPO. Consider the following and tell me what you would do. 1) Would you let the contracts expire?(-$200) 2) Would you exercise it on Friday if price action is favorable towards $1? (-$300 @ $0.71 +2000 shares) or, 3) Would you list the contracts for $0.01 and take a 89% loss in order to free up some margin for the rest of the week? TL;DR - Recap of events The turning point - News of SNDL expanding into the edibles market by partnering with Canadian chocolate company "Choklat" on Monday, Nov. 9 triggered a breakout of 112% over Friday's closing. This was only 7 day's after closing at an all time low of $0.1435. The breakout was short lived after a disappointing Q3 earnings call reporting a net loss of $71.4M. While the company was able to clean $100M in debt and reduce operating costs by 63% in Q3, investors remained hesitant given its string of what some may call "bad luck" since going public. A promising $1B pot shop trading at $13 a share on the day of the IPO was smoked down to a debt crippled Chocolate company.... 2 weeks later on Nov. 25, it's announced that the house will vote on the "MORE Act" which " would remove marijuana from the schedules of controlled substances under the Controlled Substances Act (CSA) ", the day before Thanksgiving. The news prompted a 200% run from 11/25 close through 11/30 (2 trading days considering Thanksgiving and weekend dark hours). On 11/30, it was announced that SNDL also cleared $73.2M in second lien convertible notes against its cash balance $85M effectively eliminating their debt to financial institutions, though this came with heavy costs. In regards to the announcement, SNDL CFO Jim Keough stated "while the process of raising capital and converting debt into equity has placed near-term pressure on the price of our common shares, it has been essential to improving the company's financial strength, providing us with the resources and strategic flexibility to pursue a path of profitability" Over 2 BILLION SNDL shares were traded on November 30th and 1.27 BILLION on December 1st reaching a high of $0.95 before settling at a more reasonable $0.65. December 2 saw another strong trading day following the Bulls On Parade in the previous trading days finishing +23.83% at $0.80. December 3rd....Remember what Jim said about the common share price taking a hit while they fix themselves? On the 3rd highest volume trading day in SNDL's history (950M), Bulls rallied to support a $200M shelf offering resulting in a big fat Doji for the day. The price action on this day is wild and worth a gander. Since Dec. 3, SNDL bulls have been taken on a ride with price action as steep moves as violent as 50% in a single trading day or even in extended hours. Biden's win in the presidential election has since helped the price find support ~$.45 and solidify a bullish trend with higher highs and higher lows since Nov. 1. In fact, this is the LONGEST bullish trend this market has seen since going public. Dec. 21st, SNDL announces they are "debt free" after "financial restructuring" citing $62M cash on hand. Dec. 28th. SNDL announces partnership with Simply Solventless which will allow them to use their technology and manufacturing assets to produce solventless cannais concentrate products. Simply Solventless will receive royalties from sales of the product. This brings value to SNDL that is somewhat unique. Solventless concentrates yield less product then products that use solvents and have a higher cost to manufacture. Legal action has been taken in recent years on vape products - including cannabis concentrates - that use solvents in their extraction and manufacturing process citing hospitalizations and even death contributed to lung damage chemicals used in solvent based vape products. Concentrates are also the cheapest and easiest form of cannabis to mass distribute as more can be shipped while the manufacturing can be performed onsite or in conjunction with the grow operation. States like Florida have difficulties supplying the demand for flower cannabis forcing consumers to ration and setting monthly limits on flower. Concentrates however, are in no short supply and are still the preferred form of consumption in public. On Dec. 30th, SNDL makes a "strategic investment" of $58.9M through means of a senior loan to Zenabis. SNDL's payment comes from their cash holdings and did not accrue the company more debt. The loan matures March 2025 with an interest rate of 14% per annum. It's important to note that this loan is not an investment grade loan and is subject to substantial risk of Zenabis defaulting. The deal as a whole is controversial for multiple reasons but the takeaway here is that SNDL is willing to take on considerable risk out of pocket as they bet on an optimistic future for the cannabis industry. On Jan. 11, with only ~$4M cash from their "strategic investment" with Zenabis, SNDL announces they may sell up to $50M in common shares "from time to time" through an equity distribution agreement with Canaccord. The prospectus also outlines SNDL's commitment to comply with Nasdaq's "minimum bid requirement." In order to continue being listed on NASDAQ, SNDL needs to trade 10 consecutive days over $1 by June 28, 2021 as bart of Nasqad's "minimum bid requirement". SNDL initially had until Dec. 20th but avoided penalty after transferring its listing from the Nasdaq Global Select Market to the Nasdaq Capital Market which allows another 180 days to meet the requirement. SNDL also provided written notice to Nasdaq declaring their intent to remedy the non-compliance by the deadline of June 28 by implementing a reverse share split, if necessary.
NASDAQ:SNDL
by PatternDadTrader
11
SNDLSundial Growers Inc (NASDAQ:SNDL) As I have been mentioned over the past couple of days, I keep holding my long position in SNDL waiting for something BIG. At 68c this looks a lot like JAGX in the last trading week of 2020 trading crazy volumes before the big move and it has the potential to pull a similar move. Let's see if I know what I am talking about. NOTE: Penny stocks are risky but if you know what you are doing and exercise caution when necessary you stand to gain large returns on relatively small investments, so play accordingly.
NASDAQ:SNDLLong
by SmoothJB
1
$SNDL is gonna fall todayPupm&Dump trading strategy idea. $SNDL is rising without enough specific strong news today. The demand for shares of the company looks lower than the supply. This and other conditions can cause a fall in the share price today. So I opened a short position from $0,65; stop-loss — $0,74; take-profit — $0,56; Do not view this idea as a recommendation for trading or investing. It is published only to introduce my own vision. Always do your own analysis before making deals. When you use any materials, do not rely on blind trust. You should remember that isolated deals do not give systematic profit, so trade/invest using a developed strategy. If you like my content, you can subscribe to the news and receive my fresh ideas. Thanks for being with me!
NASDAQ:SNDLShort
by KozakHlib
10
$SNDL - Fair risk with MASSIVE upside potentialThis is a marijuana stock and is showing strength after some consolidation. There is a Jan 5 catalyst for Georgia runoff election which is looking increasingly positive (for the stock) as Democrats might turn out as the winners. If Democrats win both seats and takes the bigger control of Senate, there will be a much higher chance of Marijuana Opportunity Reinvestment and Expungement (MORE) Act brought up for a vote. The price run up potential can be seen on 1 Dec (0.95+) when MORE act was approaching vote in the House. This time round it may go way higher. There seem to be good support at around the 0.45 area so you may look to stop loss somewhere below if this doesn't plays out.
NASDAQ:SNDLLong
by trilliondollar
$SNDL...high chance of a jackpotSundial growers has been getting a lot of volume these past two months, even having a day where it achieved 2billion volume. I believe this will result in a bull run for sundial. After breaking out twice, and finding support after each break out. Sundial has extremely high potential to repeat this pattern and beat the previous break out high of $.98 cents. There’s a ton of catalysts for this company that ALL point towards positive price movement. let’s start off with the fact that sundial has cleared all debt, this is great looks, having no debt is a big deal. Almost zero cannabis companies have no debt. This speaks for itself. Sundial has a very low market cap compared to other cannabis companies. Tilray, Auroa, and Cronos group have market caps of 1billion +. I believe that sundial has room to grow its market cap, to around 1billion. If you research sundial’s website they offer a wide array of great cannabis products, which they are constantly improving. Sundial is trying to make stronger thc potentcy in bud which is a great sign of strong future growth and progress. With Biden being elected, the house looking at the PACE bill, the culture right now with marijuana, and a stimulus check around the corner..marijuana industry as a whole is just a ticking time bomb. I think sundial has the best profit potential. Price target 2.5 long
NASDAQ:SNDL
by benarcotta