Earnings catalyst but TA shows a different storyOverbought indicators are slowly moving higher, but showing signs of a slowdown and potential correction.
SPOT trade ideas
Spotify Tunes Up for Q1 EarningsSpotify heads into this week’s earnings update with a solid tailwind behind it, both in terms of financial performance and share price strength. After rebounding sharply from the recent Trump tariff sell-off, the shares are now trading within touching distance of their highs.
Big Expectations
The market is expecting another strong set of numbers from Spotify on Tuesday. Consensus forecasts point to earnings of $2.49 a share, up 139% on the same period last year, with revenue expected to grow 23% year-on-year to $4.78 billion. Subscriber growth remains healthy, with forecasts suggesting the platform added around 2 million premium subscribers during the quarter, lifting the total to approximately 265 million paying users and 679 million monthly active users overall.
Financially, Spotify has come a long way over the past year. In 2024, the group delivered an operating profit of €1.36 billion and a net profit of €1.14 billion — a sharp improvement on the losses reported in prior years. Free cash flow generation is equally strong, with free cash flow per share up 35% year-on-year. The balance sheet remains in excellent shape, with €7.4 billion of cash and negative net debt of €5.4 billion, giving the company plenty of flexibility as it scales.
Riding Relative Strength
Spotify’s share price has been in a clear uptrend over the past two years, comfortably holding above a steadily rising 200-day moving average. More recently, the shares showed resilience during the Trump tariff-driven sell-off, consolidating within a broad wedge formation before breaking decisively higher. Importantly, they have reclaimed the 50-day moving average and broken out above the wedge, putting them back on the front foot.
Relative to the wider market, the shares have been notably strong. While the S&P 500 remains more than 10% below its highs, Spotify is now trading less than 4% from its peak. The RSI is pushing higher above 60, but has yet to move into overbought territory, suggesting that momentum still has room to run. Volume has remained fairly modest during the bounce, although this could well pick up following this week’s results.
It’s worth noting that earnings can often trigger outsized volatility, particularly when a stock has rallied strongly into the event. As always around earnings season, managing position size and expectations will be key.
SPOT Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Spotify stock falls more than 11% after earnings releaseSpotify's stock has shown significant price weakness and is now trading below $600 per share, shortly after a large bearish gap formed following the release of its quarterly results. The company reported earnings per share of €1.07, below expectations of €2.13 per share. Additionally, Spotify projected operating profit for Q2 at €539 million, under the market estimate of €557 million. The earnings miss and weak forward guidance have led to persistent bearish pressure, triggering strong selling momentum in the short term.
Uptrend Weakens:
Spotify has been in a consistent uptrend since around November 2022. However, in recent months, buying pressure has failed to push the price to new highs, with the stock now trading in a lateral range that signals a period of price consolidation. If the uptrend continues to stall, this neutral phase may extend in the short term.
ADX:
The ADX line has started to show early signs of neutrality, hovering around the 20 level. This indicates reduced volatility over the past 14 trading sessions. If ADX remains in this range, it suggests that price neutrality could persist.
RSI:
A similar condition is seen in the RSI, which has reached the neutral 50 zone—where bullish and bearish momentum are in balance. This reinforces the neutral sentiment and may support continued sideways movement in upcoming sessions.
Key Levels:
$640: The most recent high. A breakout above this level could signal a continuation of the long-term uptrend.
$540: Current support level, aligned with the 100-period simple moving average. Stability here may support ongoing consolidation.
$480: Major support at recent lows. A bearish move back to this level could trigger a fresh selling trend in the short term.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
$SPOT Facing Resistance at 627–652 with Key Support at 484 UnderSpotify’s weekly chart shows a peak around the 627–652 range, where price action has failed to break through multiple times. This lack of upward momentum has left NYSE:SPOT vulnerable to potential downside. At the moment, 484 serves as an important support level. If it fails, it could open the door to a deeper pullback, possibly towards the 380–320 zone. Even if the price moves above 627, caution is advised, as there’s no solid signal for a sustained upward trend yet.
SPOT: Possible Rejection at Resistance Several tickers have bounced significantly but my eye are out for shorts - SPOT looks like. a possible candidate. Price jumped to resistance but failed to break. Could make another attempt depending on earnings but considering the broader market conditions, its likely that investors will be reducing exposure - since resistance isn't broken there may be a follow up retest of support. Watching the retrace and will be staying tuned for earnings
Spotify - JRE noticing sellers market exhausted, monthly sellers bear target met, big boys profiting atm. so l will monitor behavior of monthly candles, notice yearly candle close will happen also at months end, helping with more price action PA analysis. Sellers are weakening down here.
awaiting more weekly candles ..
Perma
SPOTIFY: Short at supply switch your directions
now bearish PA forming
Exit your long term long now. get ready for discounted shorts with highest prices IF dynamic change and price structure becomes clear to you
you can then send it..
wait for confirmation whatever that means to you.
Spotify (SPOT) – Sustainable Business Model Amid Tariff WarsKey Supporting Arguments
Spotify’s business model is resilient enough to rising tariff barriers between countries and economic downturns
Spotify and other music streaming platforms are undercapitalized and may demonstrate substantial growth in 2025, driven by increasing subscription prices.
Investment Thesis
Spotify (SPOT) stands as the world’s leading global audio streaming platform, boasting over 600 million active users, around 265 millions of whom are paying subscribers. The company’s primary revenue stream is derived from premium subscriptions, which constitute approximately 88% of its total revenue, with advertising revenue comprising the remaining 12%. This model offers the company relative stability amidst ongoing tariff tensions.
Amidst global economic instability and the threat of escalating trade wars, Spotify emerges as a safe haven for investors. Spotify’s audio streaming platform is not reliant on the supply of physical goods, rendering it immune to tariff barriers. The high entertainment value, the ingrained habit of daily usage, and the superior quality of the platform ensure a strong subscriber base, even during times of economic uncertainty. 88% of Spotify’s revenue is derived from paid subscribers, while advertising revenue accounts for only about 12%. This revenue structure makes the company more resilient to downturns in consumer demand and reduced advertising budgets. Approximately 40% of Spotify’s revenue is generated in the U.S. and 10% in the UK, with the remainder coming from other markets worldwide. This geographic diversification mitigates vulnerability to localized economic shocks.
The music streaming sector is undercapitalized. This industry is undergoing transformation. Initially, competition among music streaming platforms was centered on mass user acquisition, often keeping prices low to attract listeners away from piracy services. However, beginning in 2022 and through 2023, a wave of price increases was initiated by all major industry players, including Spotify, Apple, Amazon, and YouTube. As users have grown accustomed to paid subscriptions and their loyalty has increased due to enhanced user experiences, the cost of switching between platforms has risen substantially. This has empowered streaming services, particularly Spotify, to raise prices without experiencing significant audience loss. We anticipate that subscription price increases will be a primary driver of the company’s revenue and margin in 2025.
Our two-month price target for the SPOT stock is $650, with a “buy” rating. We recommend setting a stop-loss order at $500.
SPOT Eiffel Tower CAUTION!This is a very simple setup of an Eiffel Tower pattern that should be respected. Bulls do not want to be long with this setup.
The Eiffel Tower patterns are rare, hence not much talked about or understood. But they are very powerful when the conditions are right.
CAUTION!!
Spotify testing the daily trendlineSpotify looks like it will breakout of the daily trendline.
Earnings in another 30 days approx
If it can break and hold 600 level, possible we see 650 test before Earnings
Entry for me would be above 600 with 590 stops
PS: No position yet
Spotify (SPOT) Shares Rise by Nearly 7%Spotify (SPOT) Shares Rise by Nearly 7%
According to the stock chart of music streaming giant Spotify (SPOT), the share price:
→ Increased by almost 7% by the end of trading on Friday.
→ Has surged approximately 28% since the start of 2025—one of the strongest performances in the stock market.
→ Has nearly doubled over the past 12 months.
Why Is Spotify (SPOT) Stock Rising?
As we noted late last year, investors have responded enthusiastically to the launch of the “Premium” plan, which offers higher-quality, ad-free music streaming and is expected to boost the company’s revenue.
Additionally, on Friday, Spotify announced that it had paid out around $10 billion in royalties to artists during 2024. By comparison, in 2014, this figure was “just” $1 billion.
Technical Analysis of Spotify (SPOT) Stock
Drawing a parallel with musical notes on a staff, the price action appears to be playing a "bullish melody," rising while interacting with a structure of four ascending lines that alternate between support (one of many examples marked with an arrow) and resistance.
In March, the price tested support at Line Two, which was reinforced by the psychological level of $500 per share. If bullish momentum remains strong, buyers may attempt to push the stock back into the range between Lines Three and Four.
Spotify (SPOT) Stock Forecast
According to TipRanks:
→ Analysts have an average 12-month price target of $671 for SPOT shares.
→ 17 out of 26 analysts recommend buying SPOT stock.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Double your moneyThis correction may be over or close to (it may hit 500). I think this can double your money, may be by end of this year if we have a bubble market. Must stay above 460.
SPOT - My Mom Says I Have A short Bias...hmmm...Most of my Charts I analyze are currently showing a short setup. Mom says I'm shorting the whole world.
hmmm...
However, here's another one, just to keep the streak going. §8-)
Spotify is at the U-MLH = At the upper extreme.
The next natural move should be down to the Centerline.
Since I have no magic wand to show me the Future, I lean on my stats and my experience.
Shorting Spotify down to the Centerline or getting stopped out abve the U-MLH.
Simple (...but not easy ;-) )
...have to run, Mom calls for Dinner.
$SPOT the overvalued stock..Be real.. I’m an Apple Music/ Apple applications guy. This stock just seems a little too bloated for me. I’d like to see a retrace to that gap up, this market is volatile and this thing can move hardbody either direction. I’d take my chances with a short for about 50 days out, $560 is the target. I got a bearish rising wedge forming possibly here and some FIB retrace and Elliot Waves. Very expensive premiums as well. Have fun.
WsL
SPOT to $520My trading plan is very simple.
I buy or sell when price tags the top or bottom of parallel channels.
I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels.
So...
Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing.
Price at top of channels (period 100 52 & 26)
Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at overbought level
VBSM is spiked positive and over top of Bollinger Band
Price at or near 2.618 Fibonacci level
Entry at $558
Target is $520 or channel bottom
SPOT into EarningsOn the daily chart, SPOT has been running on what is called a long island rally, or just a long island bottom pattern, where it leaves frequent gaps and travels straight up with further gaps along the way.
Long islands are bullish patterns; however, the average rise of a long island pattern is between 37 and 40%, whereas SPOT has rallied over 300% on its long island pattern.
Theoretically its overdue for a breakdown. TSLA recently broke down form the same formation, a long island rally:
TSLA gained 125% on its long island rally.
However, with that said, the premise of this idea comes mostly from an earnings release that is forecasted to be quite bearish, with a decline to 450 over the next 2 months part of the larger forecast.
Here is a modelled snippet of the forecast for SPOT over the next 25 days:
My opinion and position currently is short into earnings.
Not advice!
SPOT pullback to $408MODs have suggested that I provide more detail about the picks I make.
Sorry. I'm not as verbose as y'all, and I don't like things to be complicated.
My trading plan is very simple.
I buy or sell at top & bottom of parallel channels.
I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels.
So...
Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing.
Price above channels (period 100 52 39 & 26)
Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at overbought level
VBSM is spiked positive
Price at 4.618 Fibonacci level
In at $457.50
Target is $408 or channel bottom
No stop loss.
Trading JournalMultiple buy points,
see annotation on chart
Initially, SPOT didn't rise due to market weakness and hit initial stop (sold 1/2)
Rebuy later again as it set up
Sold all of it due to being extended
Spotify (SPOT) Shares Hover Near All-Time HighSpotify (SPOT) Shares Hover Near All-Time High
According to the Spotify (SPOT) chart:
→ The stock price has risen by over 150% since the start of 2024.
→ It has formed an ascending channel (marked in blue).
→ Growth accelerated in November, surpassing the $400 level and climbing to around $470.
The large bullish gap on 13 November followed the release of a Q3 earnings report, which fell short of expectations: earnings per share were 14% below forecast, and gross revenue was 1% lower than anticipated.
However, the market reacted enthusiastically to the company’s plans to launch a “Super-Premium” tier, offering Hi-Fi music streaming and other innovations, including features related to video.
Spotify first announced its intention to introduce a higher-end Premium subscription with features like lossless, CD-quality audio several years ago, but licensing issues delayed the rollout.
According to TechCrunch, the new tier is expected to cost approximately $17–$18 per month, about $5 more than the current Premium subscription. Investors appear optimistic about potential revenue growth, driving SPOT's stock price to a historic high of $470.
Technical Analysis of SPOT
Daily chart indicators suggest the stock might be overbought:
→ The RSI indicator is above 70.
→ The price is near the upper boundary of the ascending channel.
Meanwhile, TipRanks analysts forecast an average target price for SPOT at $477 over the next 12 months.
This suggests that while SPOT has experienced remarkable growth in 2024, its upward momentum may be nearing exhaustion.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
SPOT Spotify Technology Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t entered SPOT in the potential Buy area:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of SPOT Spotify Technology prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 420usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $20.95.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
hourly bull continuation patternas long as we stay above mpoc the stock should continue to head towards 420. if we trade below dopen and confirm a consolidation pattern toward dpoc the bear move could lead toward pdVAH and gap close. levels are marked out in horizontal lines where support, resistance or pivot could sway price.
Looks like a double topLooks like SPOT made a double top on the weekly and RSI has overheated. The support I'm looking for is $348.
Keep an eye on SPOTSpotify is testing ath. Momentum is good and a slighly higher volume tells us there is a chance of breaking out for new, undefined, highs.
In a positive climate in general we will probably see a new ath.
