Bull and Bear case of TSLA1. Bull Case
Support & Potential Reversal Zones
$275–$280 appears to be the next support band on the Volume Profile.
$255–$238 also shows elevated volume, potentially acting as a secondary support if $275 fails.
Oversold Momentum Indicators
RSI is around 39, nearing oversold territory (<40). A reversal above 50 would signal renewed bullish momentum.
Stochastics around 20 is also in oversold range, hinting a short‐term bounce could be on deck.
Moving Averages (MAs)
The stock is trading below short‐term MAs (likely 9, 21, 50‐day).
Bullish trigger: A daily close above the 50‐day MA (currently near $340–$350) with rising volume would strongly suggest a bottom is in.
Upside Targets
$341–$353: Initial resistance from prior swing lows and converging MAs.
$415: Next major supply zone if TSLA can reclaim and hold above $353.
$488–$550: Longer‐term targets if a strong bullish trend re‐emerges.
Bullish Confirmation:
A bounce off $275–$280 or $255–$2188.
Momentum turning positive: RSI > 50 and Stochastics crossing up from oversold.
2. Bear Case
Downtrend & Lower Highs
TSLA has made lower highs since its peak (~$550), indicating a persistent downtrend.
The descending trendline from $490–$415–$353 remains intact.
Momentum Oscillators
RSI < 50 and drifting near 39: still in the bearish zone.
PMO (~-2.8 / -5.3) suggests ongoing negative momentum.
Further Downside Levels
If $275 breaks, next high‐volume nodes are around $255–$238.
A drop below $238 could open the door to $219, then the bigger gap area near $170 or even $138 if the sell‐off accelerates.
Moving Averages
Price is below key MAs, which have likely started rolling over (bearish slope).
Until price reclaims them, rallies may be short‐lived.
Bearish Confirmation:
A daily close below $275 .
RSI remains under 40, and PMO continues trending downward.
3. Which Side Is TSLA Currently Inclined Toward?
Short‐Term Bias: Bearish
Price remains below short‐term MAs, RSI < 50, and a negative PMO all point to continued downside or at best a weak bounce.
Possible Bounce:
Stochastics/RSI oversold suggests a short‐term relief rally is possible, but any upside must reclaim $340–$350 to meaningfully change the trend.
Overall, bears have the upper hand unless TSLA defends a strong support (like $275–$280) and reverses, pushing RSI back above 50. If support fails, expect further downside toward $255–$238 and potentially lower $218.
