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VIX trade ideas

Six conviction trades for 2025: seize the new market narrativeWhile developed economies have shifted to easing policies, opening the way for a broadening of the market away from technology mega stocks, the economic outlook remains uncertain. The violent reaction to DeepSeek’s launch early in the year clearly highlights the nervousness of markets and their ultra concentration. In the first few weeks of the year, the Trump administration has also been implementing its agenda at breakneck speed, leading to heightened uncertainties around trade frictions, inflation dynamics, and geopolitical upheaval. In that context, it is important to rethink investment positionings that may have worked in 2024, acknowledging the potential for volatility and numerous changes of directions. In this uncertain environment, WisdomTree’s research team presents its six highest-conviction investment ideas for 2025. 1. Can the Magnificent Seven dominate for a third year in a row? Few storylines have captured the investor imagination recently as much as the Magnificent Seven —a cohort of mega-cap technology stocks that propelled US equity benchmarks to remarkable gains. While these tech giants remain influential, we see scope for 2025 to become a year of ‘broadening out’. Macro rationale Resilience in corporate fundamentals and earnings growth: high quality growth stocks continue to be supported by strong fundamentals and growth could benefit from continued momentum after two years of domination. Value resilience and broadening: with uncertainty increasing around the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) trajectory and inflationary pressures created by potential tariffs, value stocks may benefit and offer some diversification. Energy and Financials should also benefit from a wave of deregulation under the new Trump regime. The case for a value/growth barbell strategy in US equities: a barbell strategy between US large cap quality Growth and US large cap Value equities leverages complementary strengths to navigate 2025. This approach allows investors to: Capitalise on the Value factor’s extreme discount to Growth. Enable investors to capture opportunities across market cycles. Create a balance between growth potential and valuation-driven safety. 2. Unlocking value in Japan Japan’s economic transformation story continues to gain traction as the country moves beyond four decades of stagnant nominal growth and sporadic deflationary episodes. While 2024 was the best year for Japanese equities since 1989, we believe that the Japanese renaissance still has further room to run. Macro rationale Resilience in corporate fundamentals and earnings growth: high quality growth stocks continue to be supported by strong fundamentals and growth could benefit from continued momentum after two years of domination. Favourable currency tailwinds: the yen’s multi-year weakness augments the competitiveness of Japanese exporters, fuelling strong earnings from overseas revenue. Stable core inflation (outside of food) and talks about bond purchases by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) indicate that the BOJ will prevent the yen from appreciating too much. Earnings and tariffs: Corporate earnings growth remains very strong after 2 years of improvement, and our analysis shows that the market is underreacting to those fundamentals. Furthermore, Japan may be able to secure a tariff carve-out from the US, leading to strengthening competitive positioning versus Europe and China. 3. A Trump card for emerging markets small caps Emerging markets (EM) have struggled over the past decade, underweighted by many global investors and burned by repeated episodes of dollar strength, trade frictions, and slower growth in China. However, the narrative is a lot more positive going into 2025. Macro rationale An EM comeback: with the Federal Reserve maintaining an accommodative stance on monetary policy, China unleashing coordinated fiscal and monetary stimulus, and a wave of EM sovereign ratings upgrades, tailwinds have been picking up strongly for emerging markets. But some clouds remain on the horizon: unfortunately, the Trump administration’s focus on a strong dollar and tariffs could slow down the recovery. EM smalls caps as the solution: EM small caps typically derive a larger share of revenues from their home countries, insulating them somewhat from US tariffs or the dollar ‘s strength. In a scenario where the global trade outlook remains uncertain, these domestically oriented firms can thrive on internal consumer growth, as rising middle-class demographics in markets like India, Indonesia, and parts of Latin America continue to drive local consumer demand. 4. Cybersecurity at the crossroads of AI, geopolitical tensions, and quantum computing The first few weeks of 2025 saw a resurgence of software stocks, with cybersecurity companies jumping in front of semiconductors or AI stocks. Continued corporate and government spending, as well as the imperative to protect the AI revolution, position cybersecurity for robust growth in 2025. Macro rationale AI’s security gap: rapid AI adoption brings higher data volumes and more software vulnerabilities, forcing enterprises to bolster their cyber defences. We expect a wave of spending on next-generation cloud solutions, zero-trust architecture, and quantum-proof encryption. Elevated geopolitical risks: heightened tensions—from continuing conflicts and new trade disputes—translate into more frequent state-sponsored cyber-attacks. This, in turn, drives increased defence budgets and corporate vigilance. US deregulation: since the US election, software companies have benefitted from deregulation expectations. Cybersecurity, cloud, and blockchain posted some of the strongest thematic gains in the first few weeks of the year. 5. Precious potential: silver’s breakout moment While gold often steals the headlines, silver has quietly staged a meaningful rally, underpinned by both safe-haven demand and its essential role in green technologies, such as solar photovoltaics. 2025 could be silver’s ‘catch-up’ year. Macro rationale Haven meets industrial: silver exhibits a unique duality—part precious metal and part industrial commodity. If risk aversion flares, silver typically follows gold upward. If global growth holds steady, silver benefits from manufacturing demand. Countries worldwide, led by China and the US, are rapidly expanding solar capacity. Newer solar cell technology requires even higher silver content, providing a price tailwind. Gold correlation: geopolitical tensions and looser monetary policy are offering gold new tailwinds, and silver will also benefit from the catch-up effect. Limited supply growth: silver’s byproduct nature makes supply tight, as mining companies are not incentivised to expand production simply for silver alone. This supply-demand imbalance supports a more bullish price outlook. 6. Institutional adoption of digital assets is redefining multi-asset portfolios After navigating a series of regulatory speed bumps, digital assets, led by bitcoin, have entered 2025 with growing mainstream acceptance. Key catalysts have included the expansion of physical bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETP) listings across major exchanges and the gradual emergence of regulatory frameworks that remove operational frictions. We believe most multi-asset portfolios remain structurally under-allocated to cryptocurrencies as a neutral position in digital assets (as illustrated by the market portfolio) should be around 1.5%. Macro rationale Portfolio diversification: bitcoin’s correlation to equities and bonds is low, providing a diversification benefit. Even small allocations have, historically, improved risk-adjusted returns. Institutional inflows: pension funds, endowments, and sovereign wealth funds are steadily warming to digital assets, pointing to a rising tide of flows. As coverage by mainstream analysts grows, digital assets are increasingly viewed through the lens of asset class fundamentals rather than speculation alone. Technological leaps: alongside bitcoin, developments in Ethereum scaling, stablecoins for global payments, and the tokenisation of real-world assets are reshaping how capital markets function. The resulting network effects may boost confidence in the broader crypto ecosystem. Conclusion In an environment that may reward conviction and flexibility, these six investment ideas offer distinct avenues to harness the opportunities emerging in 2025. Whether you seek cyclical upside, defensive yield, or secular growth themes, we believe these high-conviction calls exemplify WisdomTree’s mission: delivering innovative, research-driven solutions in a world of constant change. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research, or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees, or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
CBOE:VIX
by aneekaguptaWTE
Go Long on VIX Amid Elevated Market VolatilityKey Insights: The current market scenario is characterized by significant volatility due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, making the VIX an essential indicator for investors. With the VIX priced at 21.77, close attention should be paid to support and resistance levels, as a breach could provide actionable trading signals. Maintaining a long position on the VIX could be advantageous amidst ongoing market instability and the potential for further fluctuations. - Price Targets: For those considering a long position, the following targets and stops are recommended next week: - Target 1 (T1): 22.60 - Target 2 (T2): 23.50 - Stop Level 1 (S1): 21.20 - Stop Level 2 (S2): 20.60 - Recent Performance: The VIX has experienced heightened activity recently, reflecting the market's sensitivity to various risk factors, including geopolitical issues and tech market fluctuations. The current level near 21.77 points towards a phase where volatility remains above average, suggesting ongoing investor concern. - Expert Analysis: Market experts suggest maintaining vigilance in the face of potential volatility spikes. The consensus indicates that despite recent fluctuations, there is cautious optimism for relief rallies. Taking a strategic and disciplined approach amid the current market conditions is suggested, focusing on long-term quality assets while using the VIX as a barometer for short-term volatility. - News Impact: The pending FOMC meeting stands as a significant event that could influence market volatility levels. Geopolitical developments and economic data releases, such as retail sales, are also set to impact market dynamics. Notably, volatility in tech stocks and companies like Tesla demonstrates market sensitivity to external events, highlighting the importance of the VIX as an indicator under current market conditions.
TVC:VIXLong
by CrowdWisdomTrading
4
VIX PARABOLIC means MAJOR DROP, we are on that zone now. After VIX's massive breakout this past few weeks -- rendering the market helpless bringing forth a bleeding season, VIX is bound for a major drop after tapping a strong resistance level. That parabolic move should warrant a weighty trim down ahead in the next few weeks. Expect markets across the board, from equities/crypto/fx majors/gold to bounce big from here on. Ideal opportunity to enter here relative to your preferred asset to trade. Spotted at 27.85 Interim target 20.0 Mid Target 15.0
TVC:VIXShort
by JSAL
1
Direct relationship between JAP 10 year yield and VIX?With reference to my previous posts on the inverse relationship between the VIX and USBTC, I want to give another instrumental relationship to monitor the trend of VIX in order to get some clues on the inverse trend of USBTC through that. The 10 year Japanese Gov. yield is in direct relationship to the VIX, though not too detailed but in line with its trends and major movements. As long we can expect the 10yJAP to increase - as it can be predicted right now due to rising inflation in Japan - we can expect the VIX as well to be elevated or rising. A break of the 10yJAP trend can be indicative of a change in the trend of the VIX and USBTC as well.
CBOE:VIX
by Woerle
Harmonic Potentials On SPY & VIX Signal Huge ReversalUsing a harmonic pattern detection script developed by reees alongside RSI with a 15 minute timeframe, we see that AMEX:SPY has a huge upside potential to ~$588 while the TVC:VIX is showing that it has a high chance to sell off. With the RSI break above its moving average for AMEX:SPY and below the moving average for TVC:VIX , the patterns potential completion is strengthened. Usually, based on historical data, when both these instruments show an anti-symmetric pattern potential, it typically has a high chance of succeeding and reaching the potential price zone.
TVC:VIX
by Zimad
1
Backwardated Volatility Curve: A Thesis on Fear and OpportunityWhen the ephemeral grip of fear tightens, it often manifests as a divergence in the volatility landscape. Specifically, when the immediate dread, captured by spot VIX, surges beyond the horizon of longer-term anxieties, represented by VIX 3M, a unique market condition arises: the inverted, or backwardated, volatility term structure. Beyond a mere statistical anomaly, this phenomenon paints a vivid portrait of market psychology. The thesis posits that such an inversion reflects a market bracing for immediate shocks, a perception of heightened risk that overshadows longer-term outlooks. In essence, fear is front-loaded. The implications are profound. This surge in short-term implied volatility, driven by a desperate scramble for immediate protection via options, can trigger dramatic price swings. In its heightened state, the market often succumbs to panic, driving asset prices lower. Yet, the contrarian thesis finds its footing in this very panic, this acute manifestation of fear. The core argument rests on the dichotomy between panic and fundamentals. While short-term volatility spikes may reflect a visceral reaction to immediate threats, the longer-term view, as expressed by VIX 3M, suggests a belief in the eventual dissipation or moderation of these uncertainties. Thus, the inversion becomes a signal, a potential harbinger of near-term capitulation. Historically, when spot VIX eclipses VIX 3M to levels associated with market troughs, astute observers recognize an opportunity. The logic is compelling: once the immediate storm passes, spot VIX should revert, realigning with or falling below VIX 3M. This normalization and the potential for a stock market rebound form the basis of the contrarian play. The underlying principle is that volatility, by its nature, exhibits mean reversion. Extreme deviations, such as a significantly elevated spot VIX relative to longer-term measures, are often unsustainable. The expectation is that volatility will normalize, paving the way for market stabilization or a resurgence. However, a critical caveat remains. The backwardated curve is not a panacea. It can reflect genuine, persistent risks. Major unforeseen events can sustain or even amplify the inversion. Therefore, a contrarian stance is inherently risky. Yet, for those who believe in the market's tendency to overreact, the inverted volatility curve transcends a mere threat. It becomes an opportunity, a moment where the market's fear, though palpable, may be fleeting, paving the way for potential gains. This thesis invites a nuanced perspective, urging traders to discern between transient panic and enduring risk and to recognize the potential for opportunity within perceived chaos.
CBOE:VIXLong
by JonLamb
Vix Showing us Relief Ahead? The market volatility has taken a toll on many emotions over the last 2 weeks as we have broken many records for fear, panic, and short interest in the market. It is very clear that this drop has spooked many market participants out of their positions. However, statistics do suggest that these opportunities generally lead to rallies as the market reaches extreme oversold conditions. Above, I have illustrated a potential Bearish Harmonic pattern, with the key fibonacci retracement levels marked on the pivots. The VIX chart illustrates the nature of the Call / Put relationship, by representing panic levels above 20. As we can see , this harmonic pattern would suggest that a rally may be coming in the near future as panic begins to decline, or as the short traders start getting squeezed out of the market.
TVC:VIXShort
by afurs1