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CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note

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TNX.P trade ideas

A market event in Treasuries: wave 3 of E is loomingIt's hard to believe, but 3-4 weeks from now the 10Y yield will break above 3% (could hit 4..5% in a couple of months). This should cause all stock markets to lose 2/3 of their market cap, and should bring EURUSD way below parity (0.88 is the target). For the last few months the cycle always ended around the 20th of the month. Just compare DB, TLT / TNX - if you want to appreciate the subtleness of action of the invisible hand of the market.
TVC:TNXLong
by AndyM
TXN - 10 Year Note YieldWe Indicated the 10 Year Note Yield would initially retest the Highs several months back. We can see the APEX resides at the Prior Highs. The effort will be a multi-week affair, although as ROCs continue to build we are beginning to see Wider spread within the FIB Wave, indicating caution at a Resistance of 1.645%. The DX is benefitting from this as GOLD begins to SELL once again. It's time to pay attention very closely to the Bond Complex - it remains at Risk for now and the unexpected is shaking the confidence of a great number of Retail Traders who piled back into TLT on the aspirations of yet another Large Bull run to 172. Probability, 007s - is not on your side. The coming Reaction will provide some very real indications over the coming weeks. We can see the effects upon the NQ this morning. As 8 AM ET approaches, let's see how the Bond Complex begins its Position for the Week ahead. New2021 Lows for ZN as Financials appear to have made a Double Top. Trade safe out there, speculators. The past is not Prologue.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
3
TNX - 10Yr Yield /'Come on IN Equity Dip Buyers"The waters warm - just fine and we assure you there are no predatory creatures lurking about. Please ignore the Trend. Our assumptions include: The Herd is always Correct. CNCB and Lacy Hunt are "Pitch Perfect". Rates are heading lower, towards ZERO. TLT's hiccup this morning is nothing, simply a small bump on the road until 172. Debt doesn't matter, It's in the "Future" - we never subscribe to the idea of "Back to the Future" as our overlords are merely us from the Future... We are cocksure confident - "This is It~!" No more down, only up, the SELL is Over. No one would dare SELL Bonds here with Negative Real Returns. No one would demand higher rates, ever... regardless of the insurmountable DEBT Load. The FED won't' permit the Bond Vigilantes to Price in Inflation again as it is - wait for it... "TRANSitory. Yeah, naw, wrong again desperados. Looking rather forward to the NEXT SELL in TLT. - HK
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
4
ARIASWAVE LONG TERM VIEW -BITCOIN -DOW JONES -GOLD -10YR YIELDSThis video was originally intended to be a members only video but I have decided to share it with all my followers. In this video I share my thoughts about the long term view of these markets. It has been a long process in terms of thinking about how certain markets will impact each other in the long run. Every time I share my ideas it allows me to reflect on each one after the fact at a deeper level in order to identify possible faults in the analysis. This leads to a lot of background process thinking and is entirely based on the AriasWave methodology. This is why they are called ideas and they should never be taken as financial advice. My goal is to understand where we are in the long term patterns in order to produce better long or short trade ideas consistently depending on the pattern for that market. These ideas are also mostly understood by current members that have already begun learning and using the AriasWave methodology. The AriasWave methodology teaches you exactly whether or not a correction is complete because it describes exactly what is involved in the corrective process. In essence everything is a correction, it just depends on the magnitude and the observable degree of trend using available chart data. I welcome productive comments and hope to bring you some actionable ideas that help you with your own analysis in the years to come. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial advisor, I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
TVC:TNX
by AriasWave
Three Time Domains and their ImplicationsAs a foundation to my theory - this chart shows crypto to be the new Gold regardless of predictions by talking heads. Fundamentally, most disasters are man made, usually when we see ourselves as God. That is a whole other topic. COVID itself being man made is not as important as the power grab by ideologists (the bane of mankind) and the restriction of freedoms and trade. Volatility will remain high based on government manipulation to the point of collapse. My theory is this - that unrestrained supply and demand of crypto as an asset gives credibility to the use of Fibonacci retracements in crypto trading when it comes to order timing. The charts that follow show how Fib retracements based on unique chart characteristics can give insight for price action and risk analysis. My assumptions are; * Volatility regime consistent *Algorithm trading still fear/greed based, not driven totally by AI, yet *Market manipulation not feasible in crypto by design For everything there is a season, hope this helps your situational awareness regarding price action and risk analysis Grace and Peace
TVC:TNXLong
by Roger_Ball
TNX - 10Yr Yield largest SELL Side Offer since Mid-FebruaryPricing in "Inflation" has been a series of rapid events for Price. Yields began the highest velocity spike in History during the January to April adjustment. Bond Sellers have begun to increase their Sell. Retail is now 83% Short against the NQ ES YM... ahead of the most important Week we have had in Months, Since February. TNX has run-up to its -.236, a Catalyst Level. Duress in Bonds will further increase VX in Equities, both directions as there are only a limited number of Capital Pools. Money will flow where the returns can develop: CASH METALS COMMODITIES BONDS STOCKS REAL ESTATE Crypto (Unregulated Illusory Capital) Choose wisely, this cuts both ways. It is remarkable how few Bond Holders did not envision this possibility. The engrained mindset becomes one of defiance at any cost to preserve the Cult's Dogma. The Bond Market within the United States is ever so slowly being destroyed, its destruction is accelerating for reasons we have outlined repeatedly. Trade Safe out there, disruptions are simply beginning. - HK
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
12
10 Year Note YieldPrice is moving in a well-defined channel on the Shorter duration. The DX remains stubbornly over 94, a level that appears to be acting as Support for now. A pause that refreshes, one that TLT is attempting to make sense of in its way to 139. TLT tracks a market-weighted index of debt issued by the US Treasury with remaining maturities of 20 years or more out to 30 years. What remains a clear divergence is the weighting to the Mid-Point of the UST Curve. TLT is sickly as ZB underperforms ZN to the downside, it holds up better in a SELL due to duration. This divergence has been growing for some time and provided a clear indication all is not well in the Land of Wood Paneling. A veneer so thin, you can see through it... if you are paying attention. Fortunately, most do not, the tendency towards swilling the "conventional wisdom" satisfies their cleft palates. Repeated Pies in the face, a welcome event as Purchasing Power Parity continues to decline. The Market is raising rates out the Curve in defiance of YCC. The thinking is... you're borrowing insane amounts of Debt and we are collecting Chicken Scratch... you'll need to pay us more. You may control the Short end of the Curve, but out here... all you can do is offload your accumulated Debt on your balance sheet to feed us - xoxo 007 Reverse Repurchases increased 60% in 30 Days to $1.621 Trillion. 60% in 30 days. Yeah, naw, that is not going to work much longer - the revolt has simply just begun.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
8
A market event in Treasuries: wave E is no jokeThe amount of destructive power accumulated in the markets is unprecedented. All bubbles are going to pop at the same time. The short dollar, the long stocks and all other yield: all will unwind (unexpectedly as usual) in the most violent fashion. We are going to see a nearly 100% correlated move in all instruments. I track around 40 symbols and all of them stage a huge move. It feels like the entire market has approached a cliff... and is ready to embrace the void. 10Y yield surely will hit 4-5% in wave E. Wave E usually completes everything wave C didn't dare. 1929 is no comparison to what's coming. Back then the Dow only lost 49%, and this time stocks will lose 2/3 of value, accompanies by another 2/3 haircut in debt. There will be only two safe havens: the Dollar (EUR below 0.90) and the Yen (USDJPY ~87), EURJPY below 90.
TVC:TNXLong
by AndyM
7
TNX Heading Higher?Not really sure what to make of this just yet, but the 10Y yield definitely appears to be heading higher. Ironically enough, this is happening amid a #fed that is committed (at least in the near term) to maintaining low interest rates. My guess is the Fed knows rates will rise on their own, thereby creating a competitive environment among lenders. We will continue to watch this one; for now it looks like we are heading to test 1.75 - 1.77. Neither long, nor short for now. Let's just observe.
TVC:TNX
by ChiefMacro
Rates Breakout - Be Cautious on the ramifications24/Sep/2021 08:22 AM AUTHOR: Brandon Gum -- 10 yr yield is breaking out. This is after they were down 5% on Monday of this week on Evergrande default contagion fears. Fed met this week. They indicated tampering(?) Sentiment trader suggested that lots of money managers are not positioned for a move higher in rates and to be careful of your positioning and know what you own. IWM should outperform (as they do with rising rates - though I dont understand the text book theory behind this. Regional banks should do well in rising rate environment. Growth names that leverage cheap capital will be hit. No comments on other sectors. Im not there in my development yet. ======================
TVC:TNX
by gumbtg