LONG VXX CFDExpecting bounce from extremely oversold weekly and daily levels. If stop breached, be prepared to catch new daily reversal on lower levels with a tight stop.
VXX trade ideas
ROLLING: VXX JUNE 16TH 12/17 SCV TO 29/45 SCV... for a .01/contract credit.
Notes: Rolling my deep in-the-money spread (See Post Below) to a setup with a break even around where the underlying is currently trading. Naturally, this dramatically increases buying power effect, as well as risk, since I'm widening from a five wide to a sixteen wide. Will look to narrow the spread via roll out or via roll-down of the long on approaching worthless.
Vxx is looking bullish.It's so interesting while the economy was so great and SPY struggle to get above 3000 now why shall I believe it's going higher? With the Fed anything is possible however I think the risk on the upside is greater with some possible pull back SPY.I think VXX could retest the high . The news is not talking about the trade war coming back.
Hedging my bearish stance with the VXXI decided to do a small hedge to mitigate my bearish stance specifically on my 15 May expiring TIF options.
- Sold Calls at a 40 Strike for 2.5 (6 Contracts)
- Covered my short by buying a call at 54 Strike for 0.62 (6 Contracts)
This gives me max earnings of around $1128.
- If the Market Crashes and TIF still doesn't move. My Visa and Expedia Shorts will come in to lock around +1.7K
- If Market stay or continues to range. I will lose a max of $9358. With my hedge saving me abit more than 10%
Best scenario for me is for the market to become bearish with TIFF following it below 15 May haha... sweat...
Selling VXX call - Expiring 27 Jun 2020 Decided to sell covered VXX Calls as i'm pretty unsure about making Industry specific trades as it's very detached from the economy. But what I've learnt so far is that it is not a fact that the market needs to correlate with the economy.
Trading volatility seems like a good idea, as an exercise I have tried to justify two market scenarios.
Market Rises/Range Scenario
- Cities start slowly reopen
- Earnings has companies forecasting the worst of 2020. However investors seem optimistic/lukewarm
- CN could report positive economic news that will encourage positive vibes
- Europe could show positive recovery
- US weekly unemployment numbers are slowing down
- US second stimulus package (May)
- Positive vaccination news
- Lower income consumers are the most impacted. However, that won’t dent investors that deem key stocks as “cheap”
Market Crash
- Europe sinks into a clear recession
- Breakdown of second stimulus package
- CN hits a repeat lockdown or resurgence in virus
- FED keeps pushes dire warnings of economy and this becomes an early warning
- Credit card and mortgage defaults spiral (After Aug)
Trade Risk: $4710
Trade Reward: $1290 (27%)
Win Probability: 73.78%
VXX SHOULD BE ON YOUR ALERT LIST WHEN MARKET DROPSMonday the market was volatile. The Nasdaq was up under 1.00 it hung between .36 -.89, this made me start looking at the VIX.. This morning I checked out VXX and it was up and down give or take .30. Around 1:00 pm est VXX started to shoot up as the market came down. I placed a VXX Call trade, only one contract, my regret, and at the end of the trading session I was up $146 plus just in the evening extended session it went up an additional $1.56 pr share. (each option contract = 100 shares). I just watched CNBC and the analyst all think this down market is just THE BEGINNING. I am not really sure, they are more negative than most. Just remember the VXX trade when the market is down. I will have more.
Be Careful Gold, Crude Oil, & Stocks Down in the ON Pls ReadDuring the last 20 minutes of yesterday's (Tuesday) trading session Stocks fell MSFT, AAPL, WMT. In the overnight and extended hours trading sessions it continued and now GOLD, OIL AND MAY FUTURES ARE DOWN. I BELIEVE MSFT AND AAPL MIGHT FALL SOME MORE THIS WEEK. REMEMBER IF THE MARKET GOES DOWN, LOOK AT VXX AND UVXY.
VXX (VIX SPY SPX) trending lowerSell below 37.51
Buy above 39.06
Current targets - $34 - 30 range
Exaggerated move for the next week or two- $19
Price extension dips $3-$7 below current price action.
Price action within current trend lines.
Ichimoku just dipped negative.
Loss of 1 Standard Deviation (-32.4%)
Strike Level: $25.6
Probability for in-the-money: 32.9%
VXX JUST A WARNING LOOK AT TOP OF TODAY'S RED CANDLETHE MARKET SEEMS VERY VOLATILE STILL, AS I HAVE STATED BEFORE VXX GOES UP NORMALLY WHEN THE MARKET IS DOWN. TAKE A LOOK AT WHERE THE TOP OF TODAY'S RED CANDLE IS SITTING, FOLLOW THE LINE TOWARD THE REST OF THE WEEK.
I think we may be in for a couple down days in the market this week. I am not all wishing it, I like everyone else would like to get back to normal trading, whatever that may be. The Nasdaq is holding on at .36% - .61% depending what minute you are looking at it. I just wanted to bring this to your attention.
