US T-Bonds - Will Buyers Continue To See Pain?Slowly we see the decline in price action and although it's a very choppy time we are in, the continuation to the downside, at least down to 115.30 going into the next weeks seem very reasonable.
Although bearish, placing shorts in market conditions like this is high risk.
It's worth, at times waiting for the market to draw to you.
ZBH2025 trade ideas
US T-Bonds - Cookin Up The BuystopsIn line with yields repricing lower into a discount as the correlation between bonds and yields is incredibly strong.
120.02 is in the cards for future reference
RATES : upcoming reversalAs seen last Fall 23 and Spring 24, there is the case that the MOVE index has peaked and is reversing . Thus the bottom for ZB and other rates (ZF, ZN) and TLT is in sight. We consider a buying opportunity
ZB1! Weekly Chart Analysis -NFAZB1! Weekly Chart Analysis -NFA
-Price broke though Weekly Bullish FVG(Support level)
-Weekly Sellside swept 116'09
-Expecting a bounce from 50% of May 28, 2024 candle wick.
US T-Bonds - US Elections Is A Hot Topic Right Now!📉 U.S. Treasury yields dip ahead of key employment data and elections.
10-yr yields hit 3-mo high on less dovish Fed expectations.
76.6% odds of 25 bps cuts in Nov & Dec. Yields influenced by betting markets showing greater odds of Trump presidency & Republican majority.
Going into the future, I will be sitting on my hands, awaiting for more data to make logical decision on the next draw on liquidity.
#TreasuryYields #FedInterestRates #USPolitics
US T-Bonds - Short Term Draw On Sellside119.14 weekly lows is the main point of contact going into next week as we have seen a rejection from the weekly/daily volume imbalance as well as the weekly order block indicating further downside action.
US T-Bonds - 120.08 Has Been DeliveredUsually, bonds and yields work together in harmony where price delivery is clear to see but when we are in times where bonds has delivered to a discount whilst yields is also trading in a discount and has still yet to reach premium levels, it makes me wonder how long this can go on for.
Sitting on my hands awaiting more data and will keep you guys updated.
US T-Bonds - The 120.00 Region Looks Real Promising Similar to US10Y where we have seen 4 consecutive up close candles, with T-Bonds, we have witnessed 4 days worth of bearish price delivery with he volume imbalance on a higher timeframe (1W) consequent encroachment being met as support for the time being.
Not shying away from a manipulative run, targeting 122.25 but would not be phased if we do not even make it to 122.08.
Bias is bearish until 120.25 - 120.08 is booked.
Back to the revaluation stages once I see a daily candle close above Monday's high.
US T-Bonds - Has Delivery To The Upside Subsided? Similar to 10y yields, the reverse has taken place with buystops being delivered to.
Is this where we roll over from?
US T-Bonds - Sliding Further Into A Discount125.04 is the immediate dealing range equilibrium which delivered on Thursday and going into this weeks trading, I am not shying away from further downside movement.
Short-term rallies to volume imbalances is also something to consider this week
ZB1! - Making It's Way To Equilibrium?126.27 has been a prime area for bonds conducting business and if there was to be a retracement, i would like to see 125.04 met.
ZB1! - Failed To Deliver Buyside Liquidity. What's Next?In a scenario where US10Y has completed business @ 3.666, you'd expect the run on 126.27 to be seamless....
It isn't.
Expecting a short-term retracement
ZB1! - Point Of No Return...With new weekly highs booked, what's next for the bond markets?
The price range in play right now is 126.27 - 121.17 and i have to ask myself this one question...
Where does the pain lie the most at?
ZB1! - Has Been Conducted & Completed @ 125.13?The opposite is in play in comparison to yields where price is currently trading in a premium and I am looking out for a draw below 121.17.
EQ lies below with a HTF bullish order block @120.16 being the main point of interest going into next week.
Downside Ahead For T Bonds - COT Strategy ShortDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
T Bonds (ZB)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in ZB if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
Extreme Positioning: Commercials most short they have been in last 3 years = bearish. Small Specs most long they have been in 3 years = bearish.
OI Analysis: Extreme high in OI. Generally, extremely high OI found at market tops.
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for t bonds to go down into October
COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal
Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist & POIV Sell Signals
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
ZB1! - Similar To Yields Right? Don't we all love a blow-out top ey?
In my last post, i mentioned interest in 125.30 as an area of important buyside liquidity which the algorithm would me most likely to target before moving up to the HTF rejection block @ 129.26.
Last week showed a sharp rejection from the premium SIBI range and this week trading solely inside last weeks dealing range.
Volatility will be induced into the market and stops, whether it's buy stops or sell stops will bend their knees to the wraith of the marketplace.
The question to ask is, which side will bend their knees first??
I'd put my coins on Sellside, targeting the buyside imbalance Sellside inefficiency with an overall target of 120.20.
I want to see 122.21 negated, with a candle body closure below for my first objective.
ZB Bonds 30YrThe market continues to step out the final leg of this interim B-wave up that's interceding for now before the true decline of note as we head into 2025+.
US Bonds, despite the analysis and weakness projected, remain a more viable unit than does Japan and Europe as we move forward.
T-BOND futures Wednesday 14th AugustPossible reversal in this daily fvg, OR IT WILL PUSH HIGHER TO nNDOG
Buy Opportunity on T-Bond Futures Hello,
We've identified a huge current opportunity to buy T-Bond Futures with a high probability in the Daily chart.
The Target is $129'31 within a few days (Swing trade).
Ibrouri
ZB1! - 7 Days Of Heaven! Do You Want It To End?!ZB1! most volatile week in quite a long time; 26th Feb 24 being the only period this year with higher volume numbers, standing at 3.459 Million whilst this weeks volume is 2.677 Million.
The correlation between Yields and Bonds is currently in lockstep motion with each other; both printing 7 straight days of one-way price action.
I will not rule out a potential for a manipulated retracement to the downside but if this was to occur, the infamous level of 120.20 (as documented before in the last 4-weeks of analysis) is a potential draw for smart money to enter the arena.
Looking out for 125.30 highest SIBI & weekly buyside liquidity as my first target
Stretch target for this week is the macro order block @ 129.26
ZB1! - 120.20 Has Been A Stubborn AreaIt's been a relatively quiet week in comparison to the other pairs. Nothing major played out in the bond markets this week other than the last 2 weeks low being taken out before a pullback occurred. If it wasn't for the raid on sellstops, this week would have been an inside week, increasing the possibility for a low resistance liquidity run up to relative equal highs @ 120.20 (as mentioned before in my previous weeks analysis)
Relative equal highs @ 120.20 is prone to negation.
Just as US10y traded up to the volume imbalance before rejecting, repricing to the downside, ZB done the exact opposite, sweeping the 9th Jul 24 sellside before repricing higher. This also begun from Thursday and continued onto Friday.
First draw in liquidity is the premium array @ 119.21 - 119.26
Second draw in liquidity is 120.20 - 120.24
ZB1! - Yields v Bonds Matrix!I am anticipating a continued sell-off, short-term before a rebound, aiming for relative equal highs @ 120.20 - 120.24 as smooth edges tend to be made jagged as more trust is built.
118.30-118.26 T1
118.23 draw on liquidity T2
This might take some time to pan out.
Just gotta trust the process
