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Oct 1

Hammer's Tuesday's Tales

In the markets there is NOT always a counter party available for your order. That's where market makers step in. Responsible for keeping markets liquid, they will be your Huckleberry for your trade.

In a market where there is hardly serious participation (as in BTC) the MMs are a bit in a pickle. Who can they offload their unwanted positions to? Not to smart money, mark the term "smart". So, it's you, the always wrong retail trader/investor who consistently buys high and sells low.

The MMs can read charts, too. And they're very good at it. They know you're gonna sell or buy when a line is hit or crossed. And with so many lines on the charts from all those different "Zero to hero guru followers" the game is actually simple. Keep dumping until the orders burst out, reverse and freak retail out, retail close positions with loss, price then keeps going to the next order burst, rinse and repeat.

And now you know where all these weird moves come from. As far as the MMs are concerned, this can last forever, making them richer every day. Surely, smart money and experienced traders join them, knowing very well this is a gift that keeps giving.

To keep it running as long as possible, they finance YT gurus, "$100 to traders with secret systems" to keep you coming back for a beating, thinking "this time it will be different".

The 6th century BC Chinese sage Som Ting Won used to say "It's not because they're smart, it's because you're stupid".

Sep 4

is undervalued🚨

Here is why... 👇🏼

CleanSpark has the following assets on their balance sheet :

1. Roughly 7,500 BTC (Including August figures)
2. 163,287 S21 (mining hardware)
3. 4.8 million Sq foot of land (real estate)

Now lets do some napkin math on these listings above:

1. 7,500 X $60,000 bitcoin = 450M
2. 163,287 X $6,318 per device = 1.03B
3. 4,800,000 X $80 per Sq foot Avg = 384M

Total assets = 1.866Billion

trades at a enterprise value of 2.12B

This means that the assets mentioned above represent the following values of the companies enterprise value:

1. 21.23%
2. 48.68%
3. 18.11%

Total = 88.02% of total enterprise value.

This means that currently trades at a very small premium of 254M

Now lets calculate their Economic Profit:

Last quarter they mined 104M in Bitcoin. This come at the following costs 👇🏼

45M in energy costs⚡️
in labour salary's 🙋🏼‍♂️
in fee's 📑

This means that they made and Economic profit of $38. This can be calculated as follows:

104M BTC mined in Q2 - Cost of mining = 38M

Now lets calculate their Premium to Earnings 👇🏼

254M (Stocks premium) / 152M (38M X 4 quarters) = 1.67 🤯... this is super cheap.

Now lets calculate the companies Enterprise Value to Earnings Value 👇🏼

2.12B / 0.152B = 13.94

Even at todays prices is undervalued and should find support any day now.

Now imagine a world where Bitcoin trades +100K, this company's earnings will explode due to their low cost of mining bitcoin.

Many reading this maybe wondering why I have included the S21's as an asset and not a depreciating asset. This is because it is impossible to get your hands on the device with it being sold out everywhere! The higher the price of Bitcoin trades, the higher the cost of a secondhand device sells for. This is why is so heavily correlated to the price of Bitcoin.

This is just some napkin math which explains how this company is undervalued and any move in Bitcoin can send it higher by a 2/3X multiple of Bitcoins volatility.

Euphoria will return to this stock and Q4 is when I expect it to kickstart.

Aug 27

update : NVDA has recived 331.5M in premiums today giving us a 5.6M call flow to put flow

Edit: there has also been a large influx of calls for 130 and above

Jun 11

still holding 9000 sell only at 111 or

Jun 4

At the beginning of the pre-market, people bought the vouchers for a huge price because of the limited supply.
While it was all user actions (P2P market defined the price), we thought that it will probably be a right thing to support these people.

40M Notcoin ( USD) will be sent today to the snapshotted addresses for those who bought or held the first 5867 vouchers before the pre-market was open or everyone.

6900 Notcoin (~$170 USD) for each voucher.

Feb 21

I'm got my line in the water down here at $49200. On the daily TF, such a pullback would be healthy. Looking through the lens of the longer TFs, we may well be in for a longer period of sideways action. If the equity markets keep ripping higher, it's going to pull Bitcoin up with it.

That said, I think the bears have the advantage in this tight range.

Nothing is as it appears in the game of trading. For instance, the loudest cheerleaders on social media telling everyone to buy Bitcoin, or whatever else they're promoting, are net sellers. They are marketing for liquidity. All the influences pushing the idea that BTC was going to were very happy to sell their inventory for $60-70k. Beware!

Jan 14

Long-term Holders Selling: Ark Invest has noted that the 50% jump in Bitcoin’s price in the last three months of 2023 led to some long-term holders beginning to sell. This could contribute to the selling pressure.

Correlation with Gold: A report by Fidelity highlighted an increased correlation between Bitcoin and gold in 2024. This could mean that Bitcoin’s price movements are becoming more influenced by traditional market dynamics.

Future Predictions: Despite the current selling pressure, some analysts predict a potential upside. For instance, Samson Mow predicts that Bitcoin’s price could touch in the coming weeks