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LONG TERM TRADE BREAKDOWN USING ONLY TECHNICALS...EURUSD EXAMPLEHey everyone! Hope you are all having an amazing weekend so far! I just wanted to come on here and make a post on a potential longer term outlook I have on the EURUSD currency pair using ONLY technical analysis and some confluence I am seeing technically on this pair. So let's dive in! OK so to start we want to actually look back to the past. A lot of the time when we are looking to take a trade for a "future" move we have to look back at the "past" as well. Because you guys have probably heard the saying that "history repeats itself" and that is absolutely true when it comes to the financial markets and historical, significant levels of price. Quick side note: PAST LEVELS OF PRICE ARE REALLY PSYCHOLOGICAL ZONES. WHAT DO I MEAN? Well if you look at price when it returns to previous areas of buying or selling; whether you call that demand/support or supply/resistance these levels are displaying to us that SOME BIGGER PLAYERS; or players in general; had a INTEREST to buy or sell at that zone whatever the reason may be. Which if you break that down means they have a MEMORY of that zone and MAY WANT THAT PRICE AGAIN in the future. If they still like the deal. THAT is why it is psychological. Okay moving on... So when looking at this chart we can see back starting in October of 2022 we saw an upward move in the market happen that took prices from multi-decade lows around 0.9500-0.9700 area to highs around the 1.1300 price zone. This is a LARGE move in the markets and represents a macro move in the EUR vs the US DOLLAR. We can see that back in August of 2024 (current year) that prices came up to test those 1.1300 highs that were formed in July of 2023 but ultimately FAILED to break higher leading to now months of downward movement and weakening of the EUR vs the US DOLLAR. SO what to take away from all that? WELL on a macro level I am seeing that price wasn't ready to make new highs...so that means 1 of 2 things: 1. There wasn't enough buyers to break the previous highs 2. It wasn't the right deal for price for the bigger players to buy up enough to push it past those July of 2023 highs SO what that is now leading me to believe based on the technical here and what they are displaying is that we can now see prices come back down to a weekly demand (psychological) zone that was formed back in June/July of 2022 when that original large move happened, and SEE IF THAT IS THE DEAL that buyers on a macro level want to send prices ultimately higher on a macro perspective...even higher than the July of 2023 highs. Technically we can see that obviously there is a level of significant demand/support. We also have a fib alignment in that zone of the 78.6% retracement level (80% DISCOUNT!) ANDDDD we have a potential equal measured move aligning with multi-year supply up at the 1.17500-1.1800 price handle...oh and did I mention the -0.27% fib extension lines up with it also? Some nice CONFLUENCE with that as well OKAY guys I know this was a long breakdown but this is a longer term perspective and wanted to appropriately break this analysis down for you guys so for all the longer term outlook traders/investors this is the level (if it comes back down to) to keep an eye on! Hope you all enjoyed please boost this post and follow my page if you enjoyed this analysis and would like to see more accurate analysis and potential trade ideas. Cheers! Merry Christmas!
Long
by JosePips
EURUSD Model Trade Logic and Analysis Error ExplainedEURUSD Model Trade Feb 14 Asia London Marco Logic and Analysis Error Explained When analyzing the DXY today I stated it's parent bias is now bearish. I was looking for a long, setting up EU for a short. My logic was that price would swing up and take the equal highs and lower to the previous sessions 50. Following that logic I suspected that the 1 and 2 were fake outs. In hindsight I can see how price at 12:30 did lower to just above the .618 and closed in FVG, but does not lower to the second FVG. First clue. Tips its hand to want to go higher. At 1 price touches the inversion gap/MOG and takes off. The FVG from Jan 27 and equal highs acting as magnets/targets. I also could have gotten in at the 2 macro as Price lower again into a first presented FVG and takes off. At 3 macro same thing again. This is exactly what I want to see. Remember to stick to parent bias. Be checking all time frames for reactions at the macro times. What and where is price reacting. This is ICT 2022 model and fantastic price delivery. Study and slow down and read what price is telling you.
by LeanLena
Dollar Weakens as Trade Tensions EaseEUR/USD is hovering around 1.0460 on Friday morning, while the dollar index remains near 107, poised for a 1% weekly decline. The drop is driven by easing trade tensions and expectations of a softer personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index later this month. The dollar weakened 0.8% on Thursday after President Trump directed his administration to explore reciprocal tariffs on countries with unfair trade practices. However, since these tariffs are not expected immediately, concerns over retaliation and inflation eased, reducing uncertainty around the Fed's ability to lower borrowing costs. Meanwhile, producer inflation data exceeded expectations, following strong consumer inflation figures from the previous day. Despite this, components of the report suggest that core PCE inflation, the Fed's key focus, may come in lower than anticipated. Technically, 1.0460 is the first resistance level, with further barriers at 1.0515 and 1.0600 if the pair moves higher. On the downside, initial support is at 1.0350, followed by 1.0275 and 1.0220.
by zForexcom
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 14, 2025 EURUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales EURUSD: On Thursday, the EUR/USD exchange rate strengthened, rising seven-tenths of a percentage point to re-enter the 1.04000 range. This gain was influenced by a general weakening of the US dollar, which facilitated inflows amid less severe US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data than anticipated.Investors are currently speculating that the Trump administration's ongoing ambiguity regarding tariff threats indicates the likelihood of no trade war. Meanwhile, European economic data released on Thursday aligned with market expectations, offering minimal impact on traders. However, the US PPI data, which exceeded forecasts, helped alleviate investor concerns regarding renewed inflationary pressures. Core inflation for the year ending January stood at 3.6% year-on-year (y/y), surpassing the 3.3% forecast but falling short of the revised 3.7% figure, originally published at 3.5%. The upcoming release of US Retail Sales will be a key data point for the week, with markets anticipating another strong performance. The monthly retail sales figure is forecast to decline marginally by 0.1%, from the previous reading of 0.4%.In other news, US President Donald Trump has unveiled his latest strategy to boost tax revenues, amid significant cuts in administrative taxes. The concept of 'reciprocal tariffs', which involves the imposition of duties on countries that levy tariffs on US goods, is scheduled to be developed in the coming months, with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick appointed to finalise the details.The timing of additional tariffs remains unclear, and investors view these new tariff threats as unlikely, reminiscent of Trump's proposed 'day one tariffs' as well as tariffs on Canada, Mexico and specific imports such as cars, microchips and pharmaceuticals. While there are various proposals for imposing import taxes on US consumers and businesses to penalise foreign companies and countries, there has been little real movement so far, leading investors to assume this trend will continue. Trading recommendation: EURUSD: BUY 1.04700, SL 1.04100, TP 1.05300
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EURUSD 14 Feb 2025 W7 - Intraday - EU GDP - US Retail SalesThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 14 Feb 2025 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment 1. Impact of CPI and PPI on Inflation Expectations CPI Outcome: The headline CPI rose to 3.0% YoY (vs. 2.9% forecast), while core CPI increased to 3.3% YoY, signaling persistent inflationary pressures 10. However, the market reaction was muted due to mixed signals. PPI Analysis: The headline PPI exceeded forecasts (3.5% YoY), but key components linked to core PCE inflation (the Fed’s preferred metric) suggested a potential moderation. Analysts noted that softer PCE data next week could ease Fed tightening fears, supporting risk assets like the Euro. Investor Positioning: Futures traders now price in 33 basis points of Fed cuts in 2025, up from 29 basis points pre-PPI, indicating growing optimism about disinflation. 2. Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs: Negotiation vs. Trade War Tariff Announcement: Trump’s directive to formulate reciprocal tariffs (e.g., 25% on steel/aluminum) was not immediately implemented, with a delayed enforcement timeline (potentially April). Markets interpreted this as a negotiation tactic rather than an escalation into a trade war. Market Reaction: The USD weakened (DXY fell to 107.25) as investors focused on the negotiation window and avoided panic-driven safe-haven flows. The Euro benefited from reduced trade-war fears, rising to $1.0469 in early Asian trade. 3. Geopolitical Optimism and Risk Sentiment Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks: Reports of potential territory swaps and Trump’s mediation efforts bolstered risk appetite. A resolution could alleviate Eurozone energy and supply-chain pressures, supporting EUR/USD. Equity Market Stability: European stocks (e.g., Euro STOXX 50) pared losses, with sectors like utilities and healthcare outperforming. This resilience reduced demand for the USD as a safe haven. 4. Central Bank Dynamics The ECB is expected to cut rates further (market pricing in 3 cuts in 2025), while the Fed maintains a cautious "higher-for-longer" stance. However, softer PCE expectations may narrow this divergence, favoring EUR/USD. 5. Key Risks and Catalysts Today U.S. Retail Sales & Industrial Production: Forecasts suggest a 0.2% MoM decline in retail sales (first drop in 5 months) and slower industrial production growth. Weak data could amplify USD selling. Tariff Negotiation Updates: Any hints of tariff implementation timelines or retaliatory measures from the EU/China may reignite volatility. Final Sentiment Summary Short-Term Bias:  Cautiously Bullish for EUR/USD. Support Factors: Soft PCE expectations, delayed tariffs, and geopolitical optimism. Investors will monitor retail sales data and tariff rhetoric for intraday momentum shifts. A softer PCE print next week could solidify bullish sentiment, while tariff escalation remains the primary risks. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move): Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 🔹With the recent moves, Supply is failing and Demand is holding solidifying the scenario that the Bullish 4H Swing continuation in play. 🔹Currently price is sweeping Liq. above 30 Jan on 4H and Daily where I’d noted in the previous days analysis which can provide a decent pullback. (Bearish CHoCH is required to confirm the Sweep of Liquidity. Otherwise, it’s not enough and price will continue from the recent 4H Demand formed). 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to continue Bullish to target the Weak 4H Swing High. A decent pullback is also expected if the Liq. is enough and market sentiment is aligning with the pullback (Requires market Fear/ Risk-Off). 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Swing Pullback 2️⃣ 🔹Swing structures continued Bullish with 2 Bullish BOS yesterday (High Volatility). 🔹The current 15m Bullish structures confirms for me the 4H Bullish Swing continuation and we are targeting high. 🔹After the recent 15m Swing BOS, we expect a pullback. Current structure doesn’t have much clear demand zone (the 70% of the structure is a 4H Demand zone). 🔹Price expected to have a pullback to the recent demand identified (Not well positioned as it’s in premium) or to structure EQ (50%)/Discount to continue Bullish and target the Weak Swing High. 🔹I want to note that the 4H had swept Liq. above 30 Jan High which could initiate a decent pullback on price after that aggressive move up. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation of price to continue Bullish as long the Swing Low hold and pullbacks are contained within the structure.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD INCOMING NEWS TODAYI see a RETAIL AND SUPPORT resistance idea. We might see a clear Wednesday low before price could get our target above, see the label xxxxx are most likely our targets. on shorts and longs idea. So this idea has two trades, but I recommend on Longs only. Or its up to you how see the market. This is not a financial advice. This charts are base on retail and support ideas. break of structure on higher timeframe or 1h. I will update once the 1 target hit or any of this targets. follow for more. Oh hello, welcome aboard new followers. if you stuck on your charts, you can comment on the pairs you like. I'm willing to help analyze your pairs, base on my understanding on the markets. If you all got stuck on my ideas, just observe only. Not taking trades if this idea counters your trade. ciao
by D1GITALTRADES
BUY THEN SELL EURUSDOk ik I was right before, but didn't know inflation would be so short-lived relative to the strength that showed growth that fast. Diplomatic relations between US might wane off USD international support via the use of more local currencies to conduct trade (how is that going to work? Possibly from fx weighted currency that holds everything together? Maybe SGD format? Possibly they will just use a local currency or transact with another medium as well?). BRICS nations already "promised" no new currency but could just use simulated weighting to achieve the same result (sneaky sneaky). Reversion depends on Trump. No way he allows election optimism to be short-lived and wrong right?
by shades305
EURUSDShort Fundamental Analysis – EUR/USD 1. Context • Federal Reserve (Fed) • Maintains relatively high interest rates to curb inflation in the US. • Strong macro data (GDP ~+2.6%, unemployment ~3.7%) underpins the US dollar. • European Central Bank (ECB) • Signaling a potential pause or limited further hikes, with a shift to more accommodative policies possibly starting Q2 2025. • Eurozone growth is modest, while inflation has started to ease but remains slightly above the target. 2. Possible Direction • Bias: Slightly bearish on EUR/USD due to the interest rate differential favoring the USD. • Alternate Scenario: • If Eurozone data (PMI, inflation, GDP) surprises positively or if the Fed turns more dovish than expected, the euro could stage a short-term rally. 3. Factors to Watch This Week 1. US Economic Indicators • Inflation reports, labor market data, and consumer confidence can strengthen or weaken the dollar’s appeal. 2. ECB Communications • Any unexpected hawkish signals from the ECB or stronger-than-anticipated economic figures could support the euro. 3. Global Risk Sentiment • Heightened risk aversion often benefits the USD, while a more optimistic market might help the euro if investors rotate out of safe-haven assets. 4. Overall Conclusion • The USD remains supported by higher rates and the robustness of the US economy. • The EUR has some downside risk, primarily if the ECB signals further caution or if European data underwhelms. • In the near term, any corrective upswing in EUR/USD is likely to face headwinds unless there’s a notable shift in US data or Fed guidance. Disclaimer This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice. Financial markets can be volatile and involve significant risks. Always evaluate your risk profile and consult official sources before making any trading decisions.
by SkylimitBreakPoint