Weak downward movements and price tendency to move upwardsIf the red line breaks upwards, we should expect an upward leg in the Euro.
EURUSD.P trade ideas
EUR/USD long: "Let them eat cake"Hello traders
In the words of Marie-Antoinette, "let them eat cake" is where I believe the Trump administration will take us. It will not take four years before his Nationalist, America first doctrine will leave us all much worse off than before. He won the election, as I have believed he would, on exaggerated immigration issues but above all, "the economy, stupid, the economy". Despite record employment and GDP growth, inflation has not cooled down to pre 2020 levels. Will Trump lower prices for consumers? Don't think so. He is lashing out at International trading partners instead of taking a good look at the US Corporations that are still benefitting from his last tax cuts and inflated prices. The major Indices reflect that windfall. Let us take a look at the low hanging fruit of international trade before the price and inflation issues that have affected the American consumer.
ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/europe/european-union
All statistics regarding global trade are provided by the United States government in the link above.
I guess we are all dodging the tariff bullets ricocheting around the globe.Hello traders
In the words of Marie-Antoinette, "let them eat cake" is where I believe the Trump administration will take us. It will not take four years before his Nationalist, America first doctrine will leave us all much worse off than before. He won the election, as I have believed he would, on exaggerated immigration issues but above all, "the economy, stupid, the economy". Despite record employment and GDP growth, inflation has not cooled down to pre 2020 levels. Will Trump lower prices for consumers? Don't think so. He is lashing out at International trading partners instead of taking a good look at the US Corporations that are still benefitting from his last tax cuts and inflated prices. The major Indices reflect that windfall. Let us take a look at the low hanging fruit of international trade before the price and inflation issues that have affected the American consumer.
ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/europe/european-union
All statistics regarding global trade are provided by the United States government in the link above.
I guess we are all dodging the tariff bullets ricocheting around the globe.
We all know it is a page from the classic Trump playbook of making threats to get what he wants. He has already backed down from threats against Colombia, Mexico and Canada. He effectively threatened to nullify the legally binding trade agreement that he had put into place with Mexico and Canada in the first place. Say what? Que? Quoi? Or in American English WTF???
In a way, it is almost a French farce play with doors opening and closing to further the storyline.
Japan very deftly dodged the tariff threat by having a face to face meeting with Trump before any threats could materialize.
The UK has a very well balanced two way with trade with the US mostly holding a trade surplus with the UK.
And then, the European Union.
The US has a trade deficit on goods: think luxury vehicles, great French wines, delicious cheese, other agricultural goods. During Trumps' last term, the EU retaliated against Trump's tariffs with tariffs on American Whisky, Harley Davison etc. The US has a services surplus with the EU.
The EU has already committed to buying more energy from the US since the Ukraine/Russia war has disrupted the flow of natural gas and oil from Russia.
But can the US deliver on providing more of the EU's energy needs. Well, Trump will have to, 'drill baby, drill" since the US is running at capacity since fracking collapsed during Covid-19. WTI hit a low of S11 and has since recovered to treading water under $80.
Therefore, it appears that Trump's tariff threats may not have all that much impact on the EU. And do not forget about the European wall of NATO guarding us against the Russian invasion threat.
And just for the hell of it, say, the European Union blocks the Netherlands from providing ASML lithographic machines to the USA, which is hell bent on winning the AI war. No ASML, no NVIDIA chips. Just saying...
The technical side also suggests that the Euro might have found a base above 1.0200 and is ticking higher again.
Do not forget, the Euro is also a member of the Elite Club of safe haven currencies: JPY, CHF, USD and EURO. While the USD has the advantage of higher interest rates and the promise of higher inflation caused by tariffs, the EURO has the second highest rates of the four safe haven currencies. The member countries of France and Germany are also going through some political upheaval but not to the extent that it will threaten the stability of the EURO.
On a balance, I believe the Euro may appreciate against most of the majors despite the tepid economy.
Which leaves China: Why is Trump so quiet about tariffs on Chinese goods and the country with the biggest trade deficit of all??? I am speculating but the surplus of Chinese goods sold in the USA find their way through our S&P 500 companies, like Walmart, HomeDepot etc... And be assured, those CEO's have access to the inner circle of Trump. So does Miriam Adelson , the megadonor casino heiress who happens to own casinos in Chinese controlled Macau. Our USA tech bros' have also cozied up to Trump but that is more about local regulations than anything else.
The ultimate threat for us as low/medium/high income Americans, will be to what extent Trump inflates our already insane national debt and NOT the aforementioned trade hiccups. The 1% will still be cruising around in luxury German cars on their way to swirling a 50 year old Bordeaux in their finest crystal glasses and nibbling on French cheese and foie gras.
But hey, tomorrow is another day, another new development, so keep the trading sizes realistic and the stop loss levels tight. Above all, do your own research. This is just my two cents on a very complicated global quagmire that I believe, as an American citizen, will affect us negatively for the next four years.
Best of luck.
EURUSD London MacroEURUSD
Feb6
Price attempts to make it up to the 50 level late Wed comes into Asia in a deep discount consolidating. Weak and heavy at 1 macro takes session highs. Note the 1;56 candle as it touches the MOG and first presented fvg. Stalls for heat for 36 mins. have to trust.
EURUSD Bullish Bat PatternOn the 4-hour chart, EURUSD is in a short-term shock and decline, with bears taking advantage. Currently, attention can be paid to the support near 1.0236 below, which is a potential buying position for a bullish bat pattern, and this position is in the previous demand area.
EURUSD London MacroEURUSD
Feb 4
First presented FVG at 2 macro in the MOG in a discount knowing intra day. Equal highs in two places to take profits.
the equal lows were taken, you cant more clear than this. Such clean price action and the model builds its self.
EUR/USD long: Let them eat cakeHello traders
In the words of Marie-Antoinette, "let them eat cake" is where I believe the Trump administration will take us. It will not take four years before his Nationalist, America first doctrine will leave us all much worse off than before. He won the election, as I have believed he would, on exaggerated immigration issues but above all, "the economy, stupid, the economy". Despite record employment and GDP growth, inflation has not cooled down to pre 2020 levels. Will Trump lower prices for consumers? Don't think so. He is lashing out at International trading partners instead of taking a good look at the US Corporations that are still benefitting from his last tax cuts and inflated prices. The major Indices reflect that windfall. Let us take a look at the low hanging fruit of international trade before the price and inflation issues that have affected the American consumer.
ustr.gov
All statistics regarding global trade are provided by the United States government in the link above.
I guess we are all dodging the tariff bullets ricocheting around the globe.Hello traders
In the words of Marie-Antoinette, "let them eat cake" is where I believe the Trump administration will take us. It will not take four years before his Nationalist, America first doctrine will leave us all much worse off than before. He won the election, as I have believed he would, on exaggerated immigration issues but above all, "the economy, stupid, the economy". Despite record employment and GDP growth, inflation has not cooled down to pre 2020 levels. Will Trump lower prices for consumers? Don't think so. He is lashing out at International trading partners instead of taking a good look at the US Corporations that are still benefitting from his last tax cuts and inflated prices. The major Indices reflect that windfall. Let us take a look at the low hanging fruit of international trade before the price and inflation issues that have affected the American consumer.
ustr.gov
All statistics regarding global trade are provided by the United States government in the link above.
I guess we are all dodging the tariff bullets ricocheting around the globe.
We all know it is a page from the classic Trump playbook of making threats to get wha
We all know it is a page from the classic Trump playbook of making threats to get what he wants. He has already backed down from threats against Colombia, Mexico and Canada. He effectively threatened to nullify the legally binding trade agreement that he had put into place with Mexico and Canada in the first place. Say what? Que? Quoi? Or in American English WTF???
In a way, it is almost a French farce play with doors opening and closing to further the storyline.
Japan very deftly dodged the tariff threat by having a face to face meeting with Trump before any threats could materialize.
The UK has a very well balanced two way with trade with the US mostly holding a trade surplus with the UK.
And then, the European Union.
The US has a trade deficit on goods: think luxury vehicles, great French wines, delicious cheese, other agricultural goods. During Trumps' last term, the EU retaliated against Trump's tariffs with tariffs on American Whisky, Harley Davison etc. The US has a services surplus with the EU.
The EU has already committed to buying more energy from the US since the Ukraine/Russia war has disrupted the flow of natural gas and oil from Russia.
But can the US deliver on providing more of the EU's energy needs. Well, Trump will have to, 'drill baby, drill" since the US is running at capacity since fracking collapsed during Covid-19. WTI hit a low of S11 and has since recovered to treading water under $80.
Therefore, it appears that Trump's tariff threats may not have all that much impact on the EU. And do not forget about the European wall of NATO guarding us against the Russian invasion threat.
And just for the hell of it, say, the European Union blocks the Netherlands from providing ASML lithographic machines to the USA, which is hell bent on winning the AI war. No ASML, no NVIDIA chips. Just saying...
The technical side also suggests that the Euro might have found a base above 1.0200 and is ticking higher again.
Do not forget, the Euro is also a member of the Elite Club of safe haven currencies: JPY, CHF, USD and EURO. While the USD has the advantage of higher interest rates and the promise of higher inflation caused by tariffs, the EURO has the second highest rates of the four safe haven currencies. The member countries of France and Germany are also going through some political upheaval but not to the extent that it will threaten the stability of the EURO.
On a balance, I believe the Euro may appreciate against most of the majors despite the tepid economy.
Which leaves China: Why is Trump so quiet about tariffs on Chinese goods and the country with the biggest trade deficit of all??? I am speculating but the surplus of Chinese goods sold in the USA find their way through our S&P 500 companies, like Walmart, HomeDepot etc... And be assured, those CEO's have access to the inner circle of Trump. So does Miriam Adelson , the megadonor casino heiress who happens to own casinos in Chinese controlled Macau. Our USA tech bros' have also cozied up to Trump but that is more about local regulations than anything else.
The ultimate threat for us as low/medium/high income Americans, will be to what extent Trump inflates our already insane national debt and NOT the aforementioned trade hiccups. The 1% will still be cruising around in luxury German cars on their way to swirling a 50 year old Bordeaux in their finest crystal glasses and nibbling on French cheese and foie gras.
But hey, tomorrow is another day, another new development, so keep the trading sizes realistic and the stop loss levels tight. Above all, do your own research. This is just my two cents on a very complicated global quagmire that I believe, as an American citizen, will affect me negatively for the next four years.
Best of luck.
EURUSD London MacroEURUSD London Macro
Feb 5
Macro 2
In Asia doesn't quite clear the equal lows and from previous range in a discount. By 1:30 turns around and reverse to the Asian session 50 level.
Price consolidates for 10 mins reacts to the high side. Buy at the first presented FVG or on a HTF order block?
EURUSD London MacroEURUSD
Feb 7
Picture perfect.
2 macro price is in a discount and taken equal lows. Price comes to the previous days MOG and the first presented FVG and enter on the2:05 candle.
Price comes down and yet only 18 mins of heat with 3.7 pip draw down. Its literally showing its hand with the big gap step up slowly heading for the 50 level and buy side.
I had the equal highs marked out and its exactly where price went.
16 pips for 1 hour and 17 min move. You got this.
Then prices breaks structure and comes down another 23 pips.
EUR/USD - Bearish Bias🔹 4H Timeframe:
• Still in a bearish structure → Major sell confirmations.
• Took out buy-side liquidity (BSL) and inducement (IDM) before mitigating a supply zone → Bearish intent remains.
🔹 30M Timeframe:
• Bearish structure confirmed, but price is forming a range inside the bearish structure.
• This range has built a bullish structure, likely a manipulation move to strike supply before continuing down.
• Took out SSL & IDM within the bullish structure → Tapped a bullish order block inside the range.
🔹 5M Timeframe:
• Waiting for a flip entry → CHoCH break of major LH + liquidity sweep before entry.
• Plan: If 5M confirms CHoCH + sweep + order block retest, I’ll enter for a continuation downward.
🎯 Target: Next major low inside the 4H bearish structure.
🛑 Invalidation: If price flips structure fully bullish and holds above supply zones.
Bless Trading!
EURUSD 10 Feb 2025 W7 - Intraday Analysis - Tariffs!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 10 Feb 2025 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
My Weekly Analysis HERE still the same as Tariffs is the main theme but market reaction is the key.
Is the market got used to the Tariffs news so reactions will be soft and fade or we are going to see more fear in the market with Tariff War ?
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH.
🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios:
Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal)
Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal)
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is set to Bearish to target the Weak INT Low as long LTFs are staying Bearish.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹Price reached the Weak Swing High (4H CHoCH) sweeping the liquidity and turning INT structure to bearish with iBOS.
🔹INT Structure continuing Bearish following the 4H Continuation.
🔹With today open, market created a new Bearish iBOS due to Tariffs announcements.
🔹Current INT High is the 4H CHoCH which could be taken out as liquidity for continuation down.
🔹Price currently reached the Supply zone that caused the Bearish iBOS and we could see continuation down targeting the Weak INT Low.
🔹For me, I’d prefer to short from the 4H Supply after sweeping the 15m INT High (4H CHoCH).
3️⃣
🔹Expectation is for price to continue Bearish targeting the 15m Weak Swing Low.
The EUR/USD Analysis update. Today, I analyzed the EUR/USD pair and observed that the market trend is moving downward. Furthermore, I identified higher low and lower low positions, which are consistently appearing in the downtrend.
Target.
1.02300
1.01300
It's my take. What you think about "EUR/USD" write in the comment below. Thanks.
EURUSD WILL BE GOING MORE DOWN BE READY.Based on some ML in the works EUR/USD is moving directly to target 1.02091.
Key Levels for EURUSDOn Friday, EURUSD bounced off 1,0400 following the news.
If the price rises again, the levels from the news event will act as important resistance.
A breakout above these levels would confirm further upside movement.
This week, the key news event is on Wednesday, when U.S. inflation data will be released.
There aren't any good trading opportunities at current price levels.
Long1.The downtrend shows signs of breaking, or small correction is coming.
2.The uptrend is starding as the LH peak is broken and and the HL bottom is forming.
3.It seems to be bouncing off the fibo 0.618 level
EUR USD DAILY SET UPEUR USD
gap open on the open last night, My bias is sells. But will not be using in due to that Gap open and expect it may close the gap.
may look for sells around the 1.03400 area
EUR/USD Range-Bound but Ready to Break Higher? Since the beginning of the year, EUR/USD has been trading within a range, fluctuating between 1.0200 and 1.0440, aside from a few temporary spikes in both directions.
While the overall trend remains bearish, I anticipate a relief rally in the near future, which could push the price toward the 1.0650–1.0700 zone in the medium term.
In the short term, the market remains stable, with a strong support base forming around 1.0200. Given this setup, my bias is bullish, and I’m looking to buy dips, targeting 1.0500 as the first key resistance level.
EUR/USD shortEUR/USD> preview: I would expect shorts from this level where very strong resistance will be found. See all on screen.
EURUSD H4 | Bearish DropBased on the H4 chart, price has broken below our sell entry level at 1.03536, confirming a potential bearish continuation.
A retest of this level may present further downside opportunities, with our take profit set at 1.02603, aligning with a pullback support and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
The stop loss is placed at 1.04498, above a key resistance level, ensuring the bearish setup remains valid while allowing for natural price fluctuations.
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EURUSD NEXT POSSIBLE MOVESAXO:EURUSD
As of February 10, 2025, the EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.0400 level, exhibiting a consolidation phase.
Technical Overview:
Current Price: Approximately 1.0400
Resistance Levels: 1.0450, 1.0500
Support Levels: 1.0350, 1.0300
Technical Indicators:
Relative Strength Index (RSI): Neutral, indicating a balance between buying and selling pressures.
Moving Averages: The pair is trading near the 50-day moving average, suggesting a lack of clear directional bias.
Trade Recommendation:
Given the current consolidation, initiating a buy position could be considered if the price breaks above the immediate resistance level.
Entry Point: Buy at 1.0420
Take Profit (TP): 1.0500
Stop Loss (SL): 1.0370
Risk Management:
This trade setup offers a 1.6:1 reward-to-risk ratio. Ensure that your position size aligns with your risk tolerance and overall trading strategy. Given the potential for increased volatility, it's crucial to employ strict risk management practices.
Conclusion:
The EUR/USD pair is currently in a consolidation phase. A break above the immediate resistance could present a buying opportunity, but traders should remain cautious and manage risk appropriately.
Disclaimer: Trading forex carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
EURUSD InsightHello, subscribers!
I’m glad to have you all here. Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe!
Key Points
- The Bank of England cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, with some policymakers advocating for a bigger cut.
- U.S. nonfarm payrolls for January increased by 143,000, falling short of the market expectation of 170,000. The January unemployment rate came in at 4.0%, lower than the market estimate of 4.1%. The market still views the labor market as strong.
- Former U.S. President Trump stated that reciprocal tariff discussions would take place on Monday or Tuesday following the U.S.-Japan summit. Speaking to reporters aboard his private jet en route to New Orleans for the Super Bowl on the 9th, he announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports into the U.S.
Key Economic Events This Week
+ Feb 10: New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations
+ Feb 11: Fed Chair Powell's speech
+ Feb 12: U.S. January CPI, Fed Chair Powell's speech
+ Feb 13: U.K. Q4 GDP, Germany January CPI, U.S. January PPI
+ Feb 14: U.S. January retail sales
EUR/USD Chart Analysis
The pair has been facing resistance around the 1.04500 level, leading to a continued downtrend. Repeated failures to break above resistance suggest further declines ahead. In the medium to long term, a drop toward the 1.00500 level, near parity, is expected.
However, if the price rises to 1.06000, the medium- to long-term trend would shift to an uptrend, prompting a quick adjustment in strategy.
Daily Bias- Monday 10th FebI think we will see a move further down based on:
- Bearish Trend
- OB hit before a move lower 27th Jan
- Friday candle took buy side liquidity
