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EUR/USD_TOM - EUR/USD

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Is it possible for EUR/USD to reach 0.95?Is it possible for EUR/USD to reach 0.95? The euro declined to around $1.03 under pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar after President Donald Trump announced new global tariffs on steel and aluminum over the weekend. This move further weakened the currency, accentuating expectations of a wider gap between U.S. and European interest rates. The robust employment situation in the U.S. supported the Fed's decision to hold rates, in contrast to the ECB's recent rate cut and the indication of possible further easing in March. In addition, markets fear that U.S. tariffs could adversely affect deflation, raising expectations for deeper cuts by the ECB, with a projection of a deposit rate cut to 1.87 percent by December. In response to U.S. threats of trade tariffs, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the EU is ready to react “within the hour.” Bernd Lange, head of the EU trade committee, also said the bloc is willing to lower its 10 percent tariff on vehicles to match the 2.5 percent U.S. tax in order to avoid a trade war. The U.S. dollar continued its strong performance in international currency markets with the recent announcement of positive labor market data in January. The EUR-USD exchange rate fell again below 1.018, reaching figures similar to those in the fall of 2022. This trend has persisted for over a year and a half and seems to have no intention of slowing down. It was a legitimate reaction, as the U.S. economy is showing strong performance and Donald Trump's economic policies predict that it will be difficult to keep inflation under control in the United States. This means that the Fed will have to suspend interest rate cuts and keep them at higher levels than expected just a few months ago. Confidence in the market has been confirmed by statistics from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showing an increase in positions opened by hedge funds. This is indicative of a strong expectation of further dollar growth, as was the case in January 2019. The global economy is affected by several factors, including inflation in the United States and structural reforms in Europe. However, some experts do not believe that U.S. economic policy will have a strong impact on inflation as much as other market players and predict less implementation of promised measures by Trump. There are some trade policies that could be implemented soon. This could lead to additional tariffs and increased trade regulation, which could have a significant impact on China. In addition, inflation in the United States is expected to decline this year around 2.4 percent. The dollar is likely to become even stronger by 2025. It has continued to rise steadily over the past three months on expectations that newly elected President Donald Trump's policies, such as deregulation, tax cuts, increased tariffs, and a more restrictive migration policy that could lead to higher inflation, will boost GDP growth and keep U.S. investment returns high in the medium to long term. In addition to the strength of the U.S. economy, the dollar is also favored by the growth differential between the United States and Europe. This gap is expected to continue until 2025, with the U.S. clearly outperforming. According to my forecast, we could see a technical recovery of the EUR/USD exchange rate in the 1.10 area, with prices falling below 1 by the end of the year. There are several options for investing in the dollar, such as the future dollar index or buying dollar bonds such as the Treasury bill maturing on 6/26/2025 with a gross yield of 4.30 percent. If you would like to be notified whenever I post a new article, just click on “FOLLOW” above. Also, if you would like to elaborate on a particular topic or need some advice, please comment below the article and I will be happy to help you.
Short
by Antonio_Ferlito
USD: Tariff-friedWe see three key takeaways from a frenzied week. First, the recent back and forth headlines have not altered our view that tariffs are coming and this will materially impact exchange rates. Second, it is clear that FX is responding strongly to tariff risks in both directions. Third, the solid payrolls report demonstrates that economic performance is still putting a floor under the Dollar. While we remain closely focused on risks to our forecasts stemming from tariff under-delivery and more balanced global economic performance, at least for now the US continues to set a high bar, and much of the Dollar’s strength in recent months can be attributed to shifting macro outcomes rather than tariff expectations.
Long
by AccuTrade2000
EUR/USD long: "Let them eat cake"Hello traders In the words of Marie-Antoinette, "let them eat cake" is where I believe the Trump administration will take us. It will not take four years before his Nationalist, America first doctrine will leave us all much worse off than before. He won the election, as I have believed he would, on exaggerated immigration issues but above all, "the economy, stupid, the economy". Despite record employment and GDP growth, inflation has not cooled down to pre 2020 levels. Will Trump lower prices for consumers? Don't think so. He is lashing out at International trading partners instead of taking a good look at the US Corporations that are still benefitting from his last tax cuts and inflated prices. The major Indices reflect that windfall. Let us take a look at the low hanging fruit of international trade before the price and inflation issues that have affected the American consumer. ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/europe/european-union All statistics regarding global trade are provided by the United States government in the link above. I guess we are all dodging the tariff bullets ricocheting around the globe.Hello traders In the words of Marie-Antoinette, "let them eat cake" is where I believe the Trump administration will take us. It will not take four years before his Nationalist, America first doctrine will leave us all much worse off than before. He won the election, as I have believed he would, on exaggerated immigration issues but above all, "the economy, stupid, the economy". Despite record employment and GDP growth, inflation has not cooled down to pre 2020 levels. Will Trump lower prices for consumers? Don't think so. He is lashing out at International trading partners instead of taking a good look at the US Corporations that are still benefitting from his last tax cuts and inflated prices. The major Indices reflect that windfall. Let us take a look at the low hanging fruit of international trade before the price and inflation issues that have affected the American consumer. ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/europe/european-union All statistics regarding global trade are provided by the United States government in the link above. I guess we are all dodging the tariff bullets ricocheting around the globe. We all know it is a page from the classic Trump playbook of making threats to get what he wants. He has already backed down from threats against Colombia, Mexico and Canada. He effectively threatened to nullify the legally binding trade agreement that he had put into place with Mexico and Canada in the first place. Say what? Que? Quoi? Or in American English WTF??? In a way, it is almost a French farce play with doors opening and closing to further the storyline. Japan very deftly dodged the tariff threat by having a face to face meeting with Trump before any threats could materialize. The UK has a very well balanced two way with trade with the US mostly holding a trade surplus with the UK. And then, the European Union. The US has a trade deficit on goods: think luxury vehicles, great French wines, delicious cheese, other agricultural goods. During Trumps' last term, the EU retaliated against Trump's tariffs with tariffs on American Whisky, Harley Davison etc. The US has a services surplus with the EU. The EU has already committed to buying more energy from the US since the Ukraine/Russia war has disrupted the flow of natural gas and oil from Russia. But can the US deliver on providing more of the EU's energy needs. Well, Trump will have to, 'drill baby, drill" since the US is running at capacity since fracking collapsed during Covid-19. WTI hit a low of S11 and has since recovered to treading water under $80. Therefore, it appears that Trump's tariff threats may not have all that much impact on the EU. And do not forget about the European wall of NATO guarding us against the Russian invasion threat. And just for the hell of it, say, the European Union blocks the Netherlands from providing ASML lithographic machines to the USA, which is hell bent on winning the AI war. No ASML, no NVIDIA chips. Just saying... The technical side also suggests that the Euro might have found a base above 1.0200 and is ticking higher again. Do not forget, the Euro is also a member of the Elite Club of safe haven currencies: JPY, CHF, USD and EURO. While the USD has the advantage of higher interest rates and the promise of higher inflation caused by tariffs, the EURO has the second highest rates of the four safe haven currencies. The member countries of France and Germany are also going through some political upheaval but not to the extent that it will threaten the stability of the EURO. On a balance, I believe the Euro may appreciate against most of the majors despite the tepid economy. Which leaves China: Why is Trump so quiet about tariffs on Chinese goods and the country with the biggest trade deficit of all??? I am speculating but the surplus of Chinese goods sold in the USA find their way through our S&P 500 companies, like Walmart, HomeDepot etc... And be assured, those CEO's have access to the inner circle of Trump. So does Miriam Adelson , the megadonor casino heiress who happens to own casinos in Chinese controlled Macau. Our USA tech bros' have also cozied up to Trump but that is more about local regulations than anything else. The ultimate threat for us as low/medium/high income Americans, will be to what extent Trump inflates our already insane national debt and NOT the aforementioned trade hiccups. The 1% will still be cruising around in luxury German cars on their way to swirling a 50 year old Bordeaux in their finest crystal glasses and nibbling on French cheese and foie gras. But hey, tomorrow is another day, another new development, so keep the trading sizes realistic and the stop loss levels tight. Above all, do your own research. This is just my two cents on a very complicated global quagmire that I believe, as an American citizen, will affect us negatively for the next four years. Best of luck.
Long
by jvrfxalerts
4
EUR/USD long: Let them eat cakeHello traders In the words of Marie-Antoinette, "let them eat cake" is where I believe the Trump administration will take us. It will not take four years before his Nationalist, America first doctrine will leave us all much worse off than before. He won the election, as I have believed he would, on exaggerated immigration issues but above all, "the economy, stupid, the economy". Despite record employment and GDP growth, inflation has not cooled down to pre 2020 levels. Will Trump lower prices for consumers? Don't think so. He is lashing out at International trading partners instead of taking a good look at the US Corporations that are still benefitting from his last tax cuts and inflated prices. The major Indices reflect that windfall. Let us take a look at the low hanging fruit of international trade before the price and inflation issues that have affected the American consumer. ustr.gov All statistics regarding global trade are provided by the United States government in the link above. I guess we are all dodging the tariff bullets ricocheting around the globe.Hello traders In the words of Marie-Antoinette, "let them eat cake" is where I believe the Trump administration will take us. It will not take four years before his Nationalist, America first doctrine will leave us all much worse off than before. He won the election, as I have believed he would, on exaggerated immigration issues but above all, "the economy, stupid, the economy". Despite record employment and GDP growth, inflation has not cooled down to pre 2020 levels. Will Trump lower prices for consumers? Don't think so. He is lashing out at International trading partners instead of taking a good look at the US Corporations that are still benefitting from his last tax cuts and inflated prices. The major Indices reflect that windfall. Let us take a look at the low hanging fruit of international trade before the price and inflation issues that have affected the American consumer. ustr.gov All statistics regarding global trade are provided by the United States government in the link above. I guess we are all dodging the tariff bullets ricocheting around the globe. We all know it is a page from the classic Trump playbook of making threats to get wha We all know it is a page from the classic Trump playbook of making threats to get what he wants. He has already backed down from threats against Colombia, Mexico and Canada. He effectively threatened to nullify the legally binding trade agreement that he had put into place with Mexico and Canada in the first place. Say what? Que? Quoi? Or in American English WTF??? In a way, it is almost a French farce play with doors opening and closing to further the storyline. Japan very deftly dodged the tariff threat by having a face to face meeting with Trump before any threats could materialize. The UK has a very well balanced two way with trade with the US mostly holding a trade surplus with the UK. And then, the European Union. The US has a trade deficit on goods: think luxury vehicles, great French wines, delicious cheese, other agricultural goods. During Trumps' last term, the EU retaliated against Trump's tariffs with tariffs on American Whisky, Harley Davison etc. The US has a services surplus with the EU. The EU has already committed to buying more energy from the US since the Ukraine/Russia war has disrupted the flow of natural gas and oil from Russia. But can the US deliver on providing more of the EU's energy needs. Well, Trump will have to, 'drill baby, drill" since the US is running at capacity since fracking collapsed during Covid-19. WTI hit a low of S11 and has since recovered to treading water under $80. Therefore, it appears that Trump's tariff threats may not have all that much impact on the EU. And do not forget about the European wall of NATO guarding us against the Russian invasion threat. And just for the hell of it, say, the European Union blocks the Netherlands from providing ASML lithographic machines to the USA, which is hell bent on winning the AI war. No ASML, no NVIDIA chips. Just saying... The technical side also suggests that the Euro might have found a base above 1.0200 and is ticking higher again. Do not forget, the Euro is also a member of the Elite Club of safe haven currencies: JPY, CHF, USD and EURO. While the USD has the advantage of higher interest rates and the promise of higher inflation caused by tariffs, the EURO has the second highest rates of the four safe haven currencies. The member countries of France and Germany are also going through some political upheaval but not to the extent that it will threaten the stability of the EURO. On a balance, I believe the Euro may appreciate against most of the majors despite the tepid economy. Which leaves China: Why is Trump so quiet about tariffs on Chinese goods and the country with the biggest trade deficit of all??? I am speculating but the surplus of Chinese goods sold in the USA find their way through our S&P 500 companies, like Walmart, HomeDepot etc... And be assured, those CEO's have access to the inner circle of Trump. So does Miriam Adelson , the megadonor casino heiress who happens to own casinos in Chinese controlled Macau. Our USA tech bros' have also cozied up to Trump but that is more about local regulations than anything else. The ultimate threat for us as low/medium/high income Americans, will be to what extent Trump inflates our already insane national debt and NOT the aforementioned trade hiccups. The 1% will still be cruising around in luxury German cars on their way to swirling a 50 year old Bordeaux in their finest crystal glasses and nibbling on French cheese and foie gras. But hey, tomorrow is another day, another new development, so keep the trading sizes realistic and the stop loss levels tight. Above all, do your own research. This is just my two cents on a very complicated global quagmire that I believe, as an American citizen, will affect me negatively for the next four years. Best of luck.
Long
by jvrfxalerts
EURUSD London MacroEURUSD Feb 7 Picture perfect. 2 macro price is in a discount and taken equal lows. Price comes to the previous days MOG and the first presented FVG and enter on the2:05 candle. Price comes down and yet only 18 mins of heat with 3.7 pip draw down. Its literally showing its hand with the big gap step up slowly heading for the 50 level and buy side. I had the equal highs marked out and its exactly where price went. 16 pips for 1 hour and 17 min move. You got this. Then prices breaks structure and comes down another 23 pips.
Long
by LeanLena
EUR/USD - Bearish Bias🔹 4H Timeframe: • Still in a bearish structure → Major sell confirmations. • Took out buy-side liquidity (BSL) and inducement (IDM) before mitigating a supply zone → Bearish intent remains. 🔹 30M Timeframe: • Bearish structure confirmed, but price is forming a range inside the bearish structure. • This range has built a bullish structure, likely a manipulation move to strike supply before continuing down. • Took out SSL & IDM within the bullish structure → Tapped a bullish order block inside the range. 🔹 5M Timeframe: • Waiting for a flip entry → CHoCH break of major LH + liquidity sweep before entry. • Plan: If 5M confirms CHoCH + sweep + order block retest, I’ll enter for a continuation downward. 🎯 Target: Next major low inside the 4H bearish structure. 🛑 Invalidation: If price flips structure fully bullish and holds above supply zones. Bless Trading!
Long
by Juicemannn
EURUSD 10 Feb 2025 W7 - Intraday Analysis - Tariffs!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 10 Feb 2025 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment My Weekly Analysis HERE still the same as Tariffs is the main theme but market reaction is the key. Is the market got used to the Tariffs news so reactions will be soft and fade or we are going to see more fear in the market with Tariff War ? 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios: Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to Bearish to target the Weak INT Low as long LTFs are staying Bearish. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹Price reached the Weak Swing High (4H CHoCH) sweeping the liquidity and turning INT structure to bearish with iBOS. 🔹INT Structure continuing Bearish following the 4H Continuation. 🔹With today open, market created a new Bearish iBOS due to Tariffs announcements. 🔹Current INT High is the 4H CHoCH which could be taken out as liquidity for continuation down. 🔹Price currently reached the Supply zone that caused the Bearish iBOS and we could see continuation down targeting the Weak INT Low. 🔹For me, I’d prefer to short from the 4H Supply after sweeping the 15m INT High (4H CHoCH). 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is for price to continue Bearish targeting the 15m Weak Swing Low.
by Amr-Sadek
EUR/USD Range-Bound but Ready to Break Higher? Since the beginning of the year, EUR/USD has been trading within a range, fluctuating between 1.0200 and 1.0440, aside from a few temporary spikes in both directions. While the overall trend remains bearish, I anticipate a relief rally in the near future, which could push the price toward the 1.0650–1.0700 zone in the medium term. In the short term, the market remains stable, with a strong support base forming around 1.0200. Given this setup, my bias is bullish, and I’m looking to buy dips, targeting 1.0500 as the first key resistance level.
Long
by Mihai_Iacob