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EUR/USD_TOM - EUR/USD

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EURUSD_TOM trade ideas

PRE-NFP LONG EURUSD TRADING IDEAI'm positioning a long trade on EURUSD in anticipation of the upcoming NFP event, with the following setup: Entry: 1.03840 Stop Loss (SL): 1.03660 Take Profit (TP): 1.04418 Trade Rationale: With the NFP report on the horizon, volatility in the USD is expected to increase. This setup is based on the technical analysis that shows a bullish structure on EURUSD. By going long, the strategy aims to benefit from a potential shift in market sentiment where a weaker USD could push the pair higher. The entry is timed at a key level that has historically acted as a support, while the stop loss is positioned just below to mitigate risk. Strategy Considerations: Risk Management: A tight stop loss is placed to limit exposure if the market moves against the position. Market Monitoring: Given the high impact of the NFP report, it's crucial to keep an eye on the news and adjust the trade if necessary. Risk-to-Reward: The setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, with the take profit level providing a substantial target relative to the defined risk. This trade is designed to capture the momentum shift expected from the NFP data, with a well-defined entry, stop loss, and take profit structure. Happy trading!
Long
by Maxsight
EUR/USD Bullish Trade Setup Based on CHoCH and Strong HighThis analysis highlights a bullish trade setup on EUR/USD, following a Change of Character (CHoCH), signalling a potential trend reversal to the upside. The price structure suggests a pullback to a demand zone before continuing the upward momentum. Entry Price: 1.03832 (Expected pullback zone) Take Profit (TP): 1.04432 (Strong high, potential resistance) Stop Loss (SL): 1.03532 (Below the demand zone for protection) Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:2 (Aiming for twice the risked amount) This trade is structured to capitalise on a retracement before a bullish continuation, aligning with market structure shifts. The CHoCH breakout confirms the transition to a bullish bias, making this an optimal trade with a favourable risk-reward ratio.
by Brainkiller
EURUSD Will Go Lower! Sell! Take a look at our analysis for EURUSD. Time Frame: 15m Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 1.041. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 1.038 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
UPDATE ON EUR/USD RUNNING TRADESEUR/USD 1H - What a lovely site to wake up to, as you can see price has played out perfectly trading into our zone and activating our pending order. We have now seen price break the last high as well. This suggests that the low price set to activate our trade would be considered a protected low and we shouldn't see price trade below, meaning anyone got in yesterday with the aggressive trade should be safe of an SL hit and can look to move SL to Entry. Aggressive trade is currently running + 40 pips. (+ 2.5%) 2.5RR Pending Order is currently running + 20 pips. (+ 1.3%) 1.3RR Please ensure you are applying safety measures with your trade and you are taking partials throughout as well. It is important you manage your trades right. A big well done to anyone who got involved in either set up or even both! If you have any questions drop me a message or comment below and I will get back to you as soon as possible. What a way to end a slow week!
Long
by Lukegforex
1
EUR: A hawkish r-star?The European Central Bank will publish its staff revision on the neutral rate today. President Christine Lagarde said last week that r-star is “a range that does not give a guideline or a destination” and Olli Rehn added yesterday that “we should not constrain our freedom of action because of a theoretical concept”. That said, with the next couple of cuts not particularly up for debate, a lot of the action in pricing is focused on the terminal rate. The scope and timing of US tariffs would have a big say, but while markets await Trump’s move on the EU, today’s report is all markets will get in terms of terminal rate guidance, and we expect a euro reaction. Based on Rehn’s comments and the fact that r-star projections are model-based (i.e. embedding significantly higher inflation than in the past), our best guess is that today’s note will show a relatively high rate and send a hawkish signal. When adding downside risks for US payrolls, we favour a new leg higher in EUR/USD to retest the 1.044 Wednesday highs.
by AccuTrade2000
EUR/USD Market Outlook The EUR/USD pair appears bullish today leading up to the U.S. session, with potential highs in the 1.0442 – 1.0467 range. However, a bearish reversal may follow from this level. ⚠️ Market-moving news could shift this scenario, so remain adaptable. ✅ Trading Plan: 🔹 Wait for confirmation signals before initiating short positions. 🔹 Apply strict risk management to safeguard capital. 🔹 Stay updated with price action & fundamental developments to adjust strategies accordingly. 📈 Trade smart, stay disciplined! 📉
by Trade_with_Ray
EURUSD 7 Feb 2025 W6 - Intraday Analysis - NFP Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 7 Feb 2025 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Investors remain cautiously optimistic, balancing solid underlying economic data with persistent concerns over geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions. Federal Reserve Outlook: Market participants expect the Fed to maintain its cautious stance. Future monetary policy decisions will likely be data-dependent, especially as the central bank closely monitors inflation trends influenced by tariff-induced cost pressures. Global Impact: International markets are bracing for mixed outcomes. Trade tensions and the ripple effects from tariffs on major partners are expected to create uneven performance across regions, with Europe and Asia particularly in focus as they adjust to shifting supply chain dynamics. Below is an assessment of the potential impact of today's USA Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, given the prevailing market sentiment: Strong NFP Data: A robust jobs report is likely to bolster the U.S. dollar, as improved employment figures can reinforce expectations for a tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. This outcome could increase investor confidence in the domestic economy; however, given existing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties, the upside for risk assets might be tempered by renewed concerns about inflationary pressures. Weak NFP Data: A disappointing jobs report may weaken the U.S. dollar, as softer employment data could lead to expectations of a more accommodative Fed policy in the near term. This scenario might trigger heightened market volatility, with investors shifting toward safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries and gold, reflecting an amplified risk-off sentiment. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios: Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and we would expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 🔹With Today NFP, news volatility will determine for me for next week a clear direction. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to Bearish to target the Weak INT Low. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹Price reached the Weak Swing High (4H CHoCH) sweeping the liquidity and turning INT structure to bearish with iBOS. 🔹Technically on the 15m I’d expect price to continue bearish following the Bearish Swing and INT structures which aligns with the 4H Bearish INT Structure continuation to target the Weak INT Low. 🔹My concern is that the 4H Swing is Bullish, we mitigated the extreme discount and currently in the continuation to target the 4H Weak Swing High. 🔹I prefer to follow the 15m current bearish Structure till we align the 15m Swing with the 4H Swing. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is for price to continue Bearish targeting the 15m Weak Swing Low
by Amr-Sadek
2
EURUSD EUR/USD Expected Move – Elliott Wave & ICT Breakdown (📌 No Trades, Just Setup & Rules Used for Analysis) --- 📌 Elliott Wave Breakdown – Structure & Expected Path 1️⃣ Identifying the Macro Structure 📊 The larger timeframe on EUR/USD shows a corrective structure after the impulse down from 1.12x, which aligns with either: A Three-Wave (ABC) Zigzag Correction A Five-Wave Impulse with Ongoing Wave 2 Retracement 🔹 Key Considerations: ✅ If ABC correction, we are currently in Wave C towards 1.0850-1.10 before further decline. ✅ If Wave 2 Retracement, then a Wave 3 Bullish Expansion should follow. --- 2️⃣ Elliott Wave Rules Applied to Confirm This Structure 💡 Wave A: The Initial Down Move Consisted of 5 sub-waves, confirming an impulse move downward from 1.12x to 1.018. This move confirmed the start of a corrective phase or the end of a larger impulsive cycle. 💡 Wave B: The Countertrend Retracement (Current Stage) Typically retraces between 38.2% - 88.6% Fib of Wave A. In this case, the current Wave B zone is developing between 1.034 - 1.057. If B Wave is still active, it can extend up to 1.085 - 1.10 before reversal. If Wave B is complete, we are starting Wave C down to create a new low. 💡 Wave C: The Final Move Before Decision Point If we see a full ABC Zigzag, Wave C should extend to 1.0850-1.10, completing the structure. If it fails early (below 1.0680), the structure is invalid, and we re-enter bearish Wave 3 directly. --- 📌 ICT Breakdown – Liquidity, Order Blocks & Market Psychology 1️⃣ Identifying Market Structure & MSS (Market Structure Shift) 📊 The price action broke below 1.0256, indicating a bearish structure shift. 📊 However, the presence of Fair Value Gaps (FVG) & Order Blocks (OB) suggests liquidity pools that must be mitigated before the next major move. 🔹 Key Considerations: ✅ A Market Structure Shift (MSS) occurred below 1.0256, meaning a correction was needed. ✅ A Bullish FVG + Order Block at 1.0200-1.0250 supports an upward move before bearish continuation. ✅ Liquidity pools exist at 1.0570, 1.0850, and 1.10, meaning smart money may push the price higher before reversing. --- 2️⃣ ICT Rules Applied to Confirm Price Action 💡 Sell-Side Liquidity Grab Before Bullish Move Large liquidity pools sit below 1.0200. This was taken out, which suggests a fakeout before a true bullish move. 💡 Fair Value Gaps & Order Blocks for Entries Bullish Order Block (OB) at 1.0218 aligns with Wave 2 retracement. FVG between 1.028 - 1.034 suggests price must return to fill before resuming bullish. 💡 Sell-Side & Buy-Side Liquidity Traps Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) below 1.0200 was grabbed, supporting a bullish reversal. Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) exists at 1.0680, 1.0850, and 1.10, meaning price could target these zones before reversing. --- 📌 Conclusion: Why These Trades Were Chosen 📌 Elliott Wave: The ABC corrective move suggests 1.0850 is a required target before reversing. If this fails to reach 1.0850, it means we enter Wave 3 downward immediately from 1.0570-1.0680. 📌 ICT: Smart money needs to clear liquidity pools before reversing. Liquidity above 1.0850-1.10 must be taken before institutions flip the market bearish. --- 📌 Next Steps for Confirmation ✅ If Wave B extends further to 1.085-1.10, we wait for reversal signs at those levels. ✅ If Wave B has already completed, we monitor for early rejection at 1.0570-1.0680 for a short setup. --- 🚀 This is the combined Elliott Wave & ICT move logic for EUR/USD.
Long
by HuntingTraps