US2000 trade ideas
SPX/RUT...Let's Watch!BLUF : Euphoric Phase Beginning? or Does it just Spike-Fizzle-Sideways...TBD
Spinning Narratives : China/Brexit/Phase-1 Deal (Pure Comedy)/House of Saud (Aramco IPO = Steady-She-Goes)/Fed Endless Liquidity...the making of a Nice Melt-UP.... What could go Wrong? Maintain a Reserve Always...
Let's Watch the ShitShow!
HEAD SHOTs ONLY!
Equities markets moving risk-on. Russel Breaking out?Major US indicies finally got their convincing breakout after the dump of Christmas 2018.
However the Russel has lagged the whole way and has failed breakouts several times (signalling big market pullbacks).
Now however the breakout looks more convincing and may have a higher chance of confirming as the bigger indicies continue to push all time highs.
Markets going risk-on like this should lead to a counterwave up in the downward trend of Russel/Dow Jones
Double down on the US IndiciesWe recently posted an idea on the DOW to go short and we have another idea from our app to go short on the Russel. Is this a coincidence or are these valid signs that the US indices are low on buying power? What are your thoughts? Please post your thoughts in the comments below.
SHORT - US2000USD
SL: 1647.196 (Suggested by our algorithmic system)
TP: 1592.164 (Suggested by our algorithmic system)
Reasons behind this idea:
1. MACD signals crossed over bearish
2. Minor RSI bearish divergence
3. Correlation of the DOW short idea by our app
---------- Chart Drawings ----------
Blue Dotted Line: Broken Support Trendline
Red Dotted Line: Broken Resistance Trendline
Blue Solid Line: Support Trendline
Red Solid Line: Resistance Trendline
Blue Rectangle Box: Support Level
Red Rectangle Box: Resistance Level
Blue Arrow Line: Bullish Divergence
Red Arrow Line: Bearish Divergence
Purple Vertical Line: Suggested Stoploss by our algorithmic system
Green Vertical Line: Suggested Stoploss by our algorithmic system
Trade idea from our mobile app: ibb.co (Timestamp is in Australian Sydney Time UTC+7)
Please trade responsibly and good luck!
RUT - UP or DOWN??? "HSO"BLUF : RUT is at the top of its channel and SPX at the bottom both flags in opposite direction...will the RUT decouple and go Higher...Who Fookin knows, but it will be very interesting to watch and YES...any bad News/Tweets could Fook the whole thing up! Let's find out...TBD
HSO/Hotel-Sierra-Oscar/HEAD SHOTs ONLY!!! Simpleton-Leadership ... TEAMs! Fook your beliefs...What's in front of us?
RUT update for week ending 15 November 2019Weekly Data Summary Suggests:
Current Weekly Trend (price relationship to the trend MA) is Bullish
The price relationship to the moving averages currently suggest Long positions.
Current chart score suggests that Bullish Sentiment is present.
The anticipated upcoming trade range is between 1572.96 - 1628.51
Price Consolidation has formed between: 1581.06 - 1608.80
Out of the combined (weekly & daily) indicators monitored, 33.33% are bearish, 58.33% are bullish and 8.33% are neutral
The prices are moving with the Trending Moving Average at a standard pace with a moderate market
The RSI that monitors bullish strength has a current weekly reading of: Bullish
The RSI that monitors bearish strength has a current weekly reading of: Neutral Bull
The strength demonstrated over the last 5 weeks is currently: Bullish
Daily Data Summary Suggests:
Current Daily Trend (price relationship to the trend MA) is Bullish
The price relationship to the moving averages currently suggest Long positions.
Current chart score suggests that Bearish Sentiment is present.
The anticipated upcoming trade range is between 1590.34 - 1604.81
Price Consolidation has formed between: 1581.06 - 1608.8
The prices are moving with the Trending Moving Average at a standard pace with a moderate market
The RSI that monitors bullish strength has a current daily reading of: Bullish
The RSI that monitors bearish strength has a current daily reading of: Neutral Bull
The strength demonstrated over the last 5 days is currently: Bullish
** If data does not significantly change between trade dates, a daily update may be skipped. Monthly and Weekly updates will always be provided. **
*** I will be traveling from end of November thru end of December. I will update as I am able. ***
Russell 2000 / Small Cap Preparing For a Nasty Dip?Here we have the weekly chart of the Russell 2000 index futures market (similar to the IWM if you're trading ETFs). The small cap index is often thought to be a leading indicator of US market sentiment. Whether this is due to its wide breadth across industries (2000 companies vs 500 in the SPY and just 30 in the DOW) or because most of the companies in the index are domestic, the Russell gives a more "pure" picture of the US market at a glance. What we see currently on the weekly chart is the convergence of multiple price channels and a potential harmonic pattern that could spell trouble in the medium term.
First, the good news. The long-term rising channel (white lines from 2016 lows and 2015 highs) is a sustainable uptrend. We can see in 2018 that when price breaks above or below this channel, what follows is a volatile swing back to the center of the trend channel. There's a relatively good chance that price remains within or near this channel for the foreseeable future. The dotted line is the center of the channel, and we had 2 consecutive closes above it on the weekly chart leading up to this week. We have back-tested that center line this week, and a 3rd close above it tomorrow (around 1585) would be evidence that bulls are willing to push higher here.
Now for the less good news. While the other (tech-heavy) indexes have been making new all-time highs more than 20 times this year, the Russell 2000 small cap index has been stuck in a parallel channel (orange) for nearly the entire year after the magnificent V-shaped bounce following the test of the lower bounds of the uptrend. The orange channel between ~1450-1600 has seen traps on both sides, yet even with all this exuberance (euphoria?), we can't seem to close above it.
There's also potentially a developing uptrend channel demonstrated by the pitchfork (green/blue/red on the chart). While we didn't get the confirmation test on the lower 3rd of the channel when we closed below the orange parallel channel in August, we have seen the upper-3rd act as resistance on multiple occasions. A quick blow-off top above the orange parallel channel that gets stuck on the rising green line between 1660-1720 or so could be enough to bring on that missed-test below. I'd expect that first test to hold, but you never know.
Finally, a bullish harmonic pattern may be forming on the weekly chart. While this sounds positive (and it is, over the long-term), these patterns tend to bring on rather extreme drops just prior to their namesake bullish bounces. If we see the Russell 2000 reverse around the 1700 price point, for instance, we could be building a bullish Gartley pattern, which would put the next bounce as low as 1117 based on the Fibonacci measurements (a 78.6% retracement of the 2016 to 2018 bull run).
Certainly, if we get a pullback of that magnitude (~30% drop from today's price), I'm a buyer. Until then, I'm looking for either a short-term long targeting the 1700 price area if we close above the orange channel, or more likely, wait for the bearish trade to develop with either a rejection tomorrow or next week around 1600 with a first target of 1455.
