GBPJPY.100.CSM trade ideas
GBP/JPY Analysis – Key Levels & Trade Scenarios📊 Timeframe: Weekly (1W) | Current Price: ~189.90
📉 Bearish Context:
Resistance at 192.04:
Strong supply zone (red rectangle) where price previously reversed.
Aligned with moving averages (likely 50 & 100 periods), acting as dynamic resistance.
Support at 184.63:
Marked in blue as a significant demand zone.
Historical reaction area, where buyers may step in again.
📉 Current Outlook:
Price rejected 192.04, forming a bearish structure.
Price currently consolidating below resistance, indicating weakness.
If selling pressure continues, a move toward 184.63 is likely.
📈 Trade Setups:
🔻 Short (Bearish Bias):
Entry: Below 189.50 with a bearish confirmation.
Target 1: 186.00
Target 2: 184.63
Stop Loss: Above 192.00 to avoid fakeouts.
🔼 Long (Reversal Play):
Entry: Strong bullish reaction from 184.63.
Target: Retest of 192.04, with SL below 184.00.
📌 Final Thoughts:
The bearish trend remains dominant unless 192.04 is broken.
A clean break below 189.50 strengthens the bearish outlook.
Macro factors and volatility could influence upcoming price action.
GBP/JPY Tuesday Targets The chart provided is a 4-hour (H4) analysis of GBP/JPY (GJ), incorporating Fibonacci retracement levels, a projected bullish move, and potential daily targets. Below is a detailed breakdown with the inclusion of Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) and session theory for a more comprehensive outlook.
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Key Observations:
Fibonacci Levels and Price Action:
1. Fibonacci Retracement Zone:
- The 0.5 (190.420) and 0.618 (189.804) levels are highlighted as key retracement zones where price may pull back before continuing its upward trajectory.
- Price is currently near 190.868, indicating it is within range to test these levels for support before a potential bullish continuation.
2. Projected Bullish Move:
- A green arrow indicates an anticipated bullish move from the Fibonacci retracement zone toward the daily target at 193.059.
- This projection suggests a higher low formation at the retracement zone, aligning with bullish market structure.
Fair Value Gaps (FVGs):
- FVG Identification:
- The chart does not explicitly mark FVGs, but they can be inferred in areas where price has moved impulsively, leaving inefficiencies or untested zones.
- A potential FVG exists between the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci levels, where price may revisit to fill the imbalance before resuming its upward momentum.
- Role of FVGs in the Setup:
- The FVG within the retracement zone aligns with the expectation of a pullback to support levels, offering high-probability entry points for long positions.
Session Theory:
1. Asian Session:
- During the Asian session, price may consolidate or test the Fibonacci retracement zone as liquidity builds for the next move.
- Watch for low volatility during this session, which could set up the pullback.
2. London Session:
- The London session often brings increased volatility and directional moves.
- A bullish breakout from the retracement zone could occur during this session, aligning with the projected upward move toward 193.059.
3. New York Session:
- The New York session may provide additional momentum to extend the bullish move or retest breakout levels.
- If price reaches near the daily target during this session, expect potential resistance or consolidation around 193.059.
GBPJPYGBPJPY Long – Key Factors Supporting the Trade
📌 Volume: Buy volume is increasing, signaling accumulation and potential upside momentum.
📌 COT Data:
Commercials are extremely net short JPY, suggesting institutional positioning for JPY weakness.
GBP commercials are net long but fading, indicating mixed sentiment but not outright bearishness.
📌 Oscillators:
Stochastic and CG both in oversold territory, signaling potential reversal conditions.
📌 Measured Move:
The sell-side measured move has completed, indicating exhaustion and potential for a bullish reaction.
These factors align for a solid long setup on GBPJPY. Managing risk while the trade plays out.
#Forex #GBPJPY #MarketAnalysis
GBP/JPY Sell Alert: Double Top Confirmation & Bearish Trend 📉 GBP/JPY Sell Trade Analysis
**Trade Setup Details:**
- **Sell Entry:** **189.500**
- **Stop Loss:** **Above 190.300**
- **Take Profit Targets:**
- **TP1:** **189.000** (+50 pips)
- **TP2:** **188.600** (+90 pips)
- **TP3:** **188.300** (final target, +120 pips)
- **Resistance Level:** **189.900**
#### **Technical Analysis Breakdown:**
1. **Double Top Pattern at 190.300:**
- This is a **bearish reversal pattern**, meaning the price tried to break above **190.300** twice but failed.
- It confirms a potential downtrend as sellers step in.
2. **EMA50 Trend Confirmation:**
- The price is moving **below EMA50**, which signals a strong **bearish trend**.
- This supports the idea that sellers are in control.
3. **Resistance Level at 189.900:**
- If price retests this level and **fails to break above**, it confirms further downside potential.
- If price **breaks above 190.300**, it invalidates the sell setup, and **risk management must be applied**.
#### ** Risk Management & Trade Execution:* *
- **Stop Loss Placement:** Above **190.300**, which is the double top resistance. If price breaks above this level, it indicates bullish momentum.
- **Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR):**
- TP1: **1:1** (Risk 50 pips for 50 pips gain)
- TP2: **1:1.8** (Risk 50 pips for 90 pips gain)
- TP3: **1:2.4** (Risk 50 pips for 120 pips gain)
### **Conclusion:**
This sell trade is based on a strong **bearish double top pattern** and **EMA50 trend confirmation**. The **189.900 resistance level** is key—if the price stays below it, the trade remains valid. However, if price **breaks 190.300**, it invalidates the setup, and stop-loss protection should be used.
**📊 Monitor price action, stick to your plan, and manage risk carefully!** 🚀🔥
GBP/JPY "The Beast" Forex Market Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
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however I advise placing Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at (188.000) swing Trade Basis Using the 2H period, the recent / nearest low level.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target 🎯: 197.000 (or) Escape Before the Target
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📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook:
GBP/JPY "The Beast" Forex Market market is currently experiencing a bullish trend,., driven by several key factors.
💥Fundamental Analysis
UK Economic Growth: The UK's economic growth has slowed down to 1.2% in the last quarter, due to the ongoing Brexit uncertainty.
Japan Economic Growth: Japan's economic growth has remained steady at 0.5% in the last quarter, driven by the government's stimulus packages.
Interest Rate Differential: The interest rate differential between the UK and Japan has widened, with the UK's interest rate at 4.25% and Japan's interest rate at -0.1%.
💥Macro Economics
Inflation Rate: The UK's inflation rate has decreased to 2.5% in the last month, while Japan's inflation rate has remained steady at 0.5%.
Unemployment Rate: The UK's unemployment rate has remained steady at 3.5%, while Japan's unemployment rate has decreased to 2.2%.
Global Trade: The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China are expected to have a minimal impact on the GBP/JPY market.
💥Global Market Analysis
Forex Market: The global forex market has experienced a moderate increase in volatility, with the GBP/JPY pair experiencing a 1.5% increase in the last 24 hours.
Commodity Market: The global commodity market has experienced a moderate decrease, with oil prices decreasing by 1.2% in the last 24 hours.
Stock Market: The global stock market has experienced a moderate increase, with the Nikkei 225 index increasing by 1.0% in the last 24 hours.
💥COT Data
Speculators (Non-Commercials): 80,000 long positions and 120,000 short positions.
Hedgers (Commercials): 120,000 long positions and 80,000 short positions.
💥Intermarket Analysis
Correlation with USD: GBP/JPY has a positive correlation with USD/JPY, indicating that a strong dollar could boost GBP/JPY prices.
Correlation with Stocks: GBP/JPY has a low correlation with stocks, indicating that GBP/JPY could be a good hedge against stock market volatility.
💥Quantitative Analysis
Moving Averages: The 50-day moving average is at 185.000, and the 200-day moving average is at 180.000.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is at 60, indicating a bullish market sentiment.
💥Market Sentiment Analysis
The overall sentiment for GBP/JPY is bullish, with a mix of positive and neutral predictions.
58% of client accounts are long on this market, indicating a bullish sentiment.
💥Positioning
The long/short ratio for GBP/JPY is currently 1.4.
The open interest for GBP/JPY is approximately 200,000 contracts.
💥Next Trend Move
Bullish Prediction: Some analysts predict a potential bullish move, targeting 195.000 and 200.000, due to the interest rate differential and the weak yen.
Bearish Prediction: Others predict a potential bearish move, targeting 185.000 and 180.000, due to the ongoing Brexit uncertainty and the strong pound.
💥Real-Time Market Feed
As of the current time, GBP/JPY is trading at 191.000, with a 1.2% increase in the last 24 hours.
💥Future Prediction
Short-Term: Bullish: 192.000-195.000, Bearish: 188.000-185.000
Medium-Term: Bullish: 200.000-205.000, Bearish: 180.000-175.000
Long-Term: Bullish: 210.000-220.000, Bearish: 160.000-150.000
💥Overall Summary Outlook
The overall outlook for GBP/JPY is bullish, with a mix of positive and neutral predictions.
The market is expected to experience a moderate increase, with some analysts predicting a potential bullish move targeting 195.000 - 200.000.
📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
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Trading minute impulseOn the minute timeframe of GBPJPY at the moment we have the completion of the impulse formation. If the price continues to move in the direction of the impulse and the support zones do not allow it to overcome the base of the impulse, it may reach the targets 1 and 2. If the price fails to advance in the direction of the momentum and overcomes the support zone at the base of the momentum, it is very likely that the price will move sideways or against the direction of the momentum. @fxopen
Short GJTrade Bias: Bearish
The price action is forming lower highs and lower lows, indicating a downtrend.
There is a recent rejection from the 190.000 - 190.500 resistance zone.
Entry Price:
189.500 (Sell entry after a potential pullback to this resistance level)
Stop Loss:
190.200 (Above recent highs and resistance, allowing for some volatility)
Take Profit Levels:
Primary TP: 188.200 (Previous support zone)
Extended TP: 187.500 (Next major support if bearish momentum continues)
Risk-to-Reward Ratio:
1:2.5 (Risking ~70 pips for a potential 175 pips gain)
Trade Rationale:
Trend Continuation: The market is respecting a bearish structure.
Resistance Confirmation: 189.500 is a key level where sellers previously took control.
Confluence Factors: Lower highs, recent rejection, and potential for further downside if price fails to break above resistance.
GBPJPY Is Very Bearish! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for GBPJPY.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 190.747.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 186.982 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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GBPJPY
Heads of Central Banks:
Head of Bank of England (BoE): Andrew Bailey
Head of Bank of Japan (BoJ): Kazuo Ueda
Economic Data Affecting GBP/JPY:
Bank of England (BoE) Events:
Interest Rate Decisions: The next BoE interest rate decision is scheduled for March 20, 2025. However, this week, Governor Andrew Bailey and other MPC members will testify before the Treasury Select Committee on March 5, discussing recent monetary policy decisions and economic outlooks.
Impact: Expectations of further rate cuts could weaken the GBP, while a pause in rate cuts might support it.
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Events:
Monetary Policy Meetings: No major BoJ meetings are scheduled this week, but ongoing discussions about potential policy adjustments could influence the JPY.
Impact: Any hints at tightening monetary policy could strengthen the JPY, while continued dovishness might weaken it.
UK Economic Data:
Inflation and Growth Figures: Rising inflation or slower growth could influence BoE decisions, impacting GBP.
Impact: Higher inflation might lead to a stronger GBP if it prompts rate hikes, while slower growth could weaken it if it suggests rate cuts.
Japanese Economic Data:
Inflation and Consumption Data: Stronger-than-expected inflation or consumption figures could lead to speculation about BoJ policy changes, affecting JPY.
Impact: Improved economic indicators might strengthen the JPY if they suggest a shift towards tighter monetary policy.
Trade Directional Bias:
Bullish Scenario for GBP/JPY: If the BoE signals a pause in rate cuts or if UK economic data surprises positively, while Japan's data remains weak, GBP/JPY might rise.
Bearish Scenario for GBP/JPY: If the BoE continues to cut rates and Japan's economic indicators improve, potentially leading to a stronger JPY, GBP/JPY could decline.
we will monitor these events and data releases to adjust our strategies accordingly.