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GBPJPY.1000.CFD trade ideas

GBPJPY - Yen will continue its weakness?!The GBPJPY currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. If the upward movement continues, we can see the supply zone and sell within that zone with the appropriate risk reward. The BRC retail report in the UK indicated that retail sales in October 2024 only grew by 0.3%, a significant drop compared to the 1.7% growth in September. This decline is attributed to consumers’ caution ahead of Black Friday promotions and school half-term holidays, which were delayed compared to usual. Helen Dickinson, CEO of the British Retail Consortium (BRC), stated, “After a strong start in autumn, October sales growth was disappointing. Part of this decline was due to the later timing of school half-term holidays, which reduced sales, but it is expected that November will show better performance.” She also noted that consumer sentiment has been affected by uncertainties surrounding future budgets and rising energy costs. According to the latest Citi/YouGov survey, British households’ inflation expectations for the coming year have reached 3.3%, and long-term household inflation expectations remain at 3.8%. Analysts at Citi Investment Bank suggest that these figures indicate that despite efforts by the Bank of England to curb inflation, public inflation expectations remain high. In Japan, the government has designed a support plan for the country’s semiconductor industry that involves leveraging assets such as its shares in NTT, with the program spanning several years. Instead of direct subsidies, the plan includes a multi-stage approach. Semiconductor equipment manufacturers receive subsidies while moving towards mass production, and once they reach this stage, the government shifts to other forms of support such as private sector investments and financial guarantees, extending this process until around 2030. Sakurai, a former board member of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), announced that the central bank is likely to raise interest rates again in the coming months, with January being a potential timing for this action. The aim is to increase short-term interest rates to 1.5% or 2% by the end of Ueda’s term in early 2028.
Short
by Ali_PSND
GBP/JPY 144M chart with an analysis of the key levels1. Elliott Wave Analysis and Structure The chart appears to be tracking a complex Elliott Wave pattern with clear labeling of impulse and corrective waves. Wave III and IV are prominent on the chart, indicating that the current movement may be within a broader impulse wave structure, likely aiming towards completing Wave V at higher levels. Wave 1 Invalidation Level at 199.240: This level is crucial as any move below this would invalidate the current wave count, which expects price to rise in Wave V without dipping below Wave 1's territory. 2. Fibonacci Levels and Extensions Key Fibonacci Extensions: 3.618 Extension at 207.390: This is the highest extension marked, suggesting a potential overextended Wave V target. 2.618 Extension at 205.421: This level is marked for a diagonal Wave 5, providing a likely resistance level and a target for a possible reversal. 2.236 Extension at 203.952: Labeled as "Volume Divergence by Wave 5," this level indicates where volume divergence might emerge, signaling weakening momentum and a potential reversal. Retracement Levels: 0.272 (202.172) and 0.382 (201.240): These retracement levels provide support within the corrective structure of Wave IV. They mark areas where price could potentially consolidate before moving higher to complete Wave V. 0.618 (199.240): This level is noted as a critical support level. It also serves as the Wave 1 invalidation point, reinforcing its importance as a support that should hold if the bullish wave count remains valid. 3. Volume Divergence and Inducement Zones Volume Divergence by Wave 5 (at 206.888): Located near a significant Fibonacci extension, this indicates that although price may continue higher, a reduction in volume could hint at a weakening bullish momentum. Inducement Zone (2.618 at 204.375 for Wave 3): This inducement area acts as a potential target for Wave 3, where traders might look for an initial breakout or reaction as it aligns with a higher extension level. Conformation Zone at 2.236 (203.224): Marked as a confirmation area for Wave 1-5, suggesting that this could act as a validation zone for continued bullish movement if price holds above it. 4. Invalidation Levels Wave 2-B Invalidation: An invalidation level is noted around the bottom of the corrective phase, signifying that any drop below this would invalidate the expected bullish move in Wave V. Wave 4 Invalidation: The corrective Wave IV must not extend too low (below the noted retracement levels), or else the structure may shift into a deeper correction rather than maintaining the bullish outlook. 5. Strategic Price Levels Resistance Levels: 206.889: This is noted as the invalidation extension above Wave 5, marking a potential high where price might encounter resistance if this wave structure remains intact. 205.421 (Diagonal Wave 5 Target): As a common extension level, this serves as a natural target for price to complete the wave. Support Levels: 200.500 - 201.240 Range: This range includes retracement levels for Wave IV and is a key support area to maintain the bullish wave count. 199.240: Critical as the must-not-pass level for Wave 1. A breach here would invalidate the wave structure. 6. Channel and Trendline Analysis Ascending Trendline Support: An orange trendline runs diagonally, acting as a support line for the ongoing uptrend. This line aligns with retracement levels, suggesting that if price touches or respects this trendline, it could provide a buying opportunity within the context of the bullish structure. Diagonal Channel in Purple: The price movement within this channel helps in tracking the upward progress of Wave III to Wave V, with each retracement bouncing within the channel limits. 7. Projected Path and Trading Implications Primary Pathway: The chart anticipates that price will reach the 2.618 (204.375) and possibly 3.618 (207.390) extensions for Wave V. A break of these levels with volume divergence would be a signal for potential exhaustion. Wave IV Consolidation: Should Wave IV continue, traders may look to buy on dips near the 0.382 (201.240) or higher as long as the price remains above 199.240. Exit/Profit-Taking Zones: Traders may consider taking profits near 204.375 or 206.888 based on resistance levels, especially if volume divergence becomes apparent. Summary of Key Takeaways Upside Targets: The key upside targets are the 2.236 extension (203.952), 2.618 extension (205.421), and the maximum extension at 207.390. Critical Supports: Supports at 201.240 (0.382 retracement) and 199.240 (Wave 1 invalidation) are key for maintaining the bullish outlook. Volume Divergence: Potential volume divergence near the higher extensions could signal a weakening trend, marking a potential reversal or consolidation phase for GBP/JPY.
Long
by spacedevil
Detailed Analysis of GBP/JPY (1H) Chart 1. Harmonic Patterns (Likely Bat or Gartley) The marked points labeled "A", "B", "C", and "D" form a harmonic pattern. Harmonic patterns use Fibonacci retracement levels, often aiming for precision with levels like 0.618, 0.786, and 1.618. The Fibonacci retracement values are visible on the chart (e.g., 0.618 and 0.786), indicating key levels where price is expected to react. 2. Elliott Wave Count The chart shows a likely Elliott Wave count, where the current structure is labeled with Roman numerals (I, II, III). Wave III has an extension, typically a strong impulse wave, often exceeding the 1.618 level. The labeling around these waves helps identify potential entry or exit points based on the wave completion and correction expectation. 3. Fibonacci Extensions and Retracements The levels labeled 1.618, 1.786, and 2.000 are common Fibonacci extension levels used to project possible reversal points. The "CONFIRMATION" level at 1.618 suggests that if price reaches this, it aligns with a wave target, while the "INDUCEMENT" level at 1.786 might serve as a stop-loss area or profit target. These levels indicate areas of confluence where traders expect significant support or resistance. 4. Volume Profile and Inducement Levels There’s a volume profile along the left side of the pattern, giving insights into where most trading volume occurred during the price movements. "Inducement Wave 3" suggests a likely resistance zone that could trap traders or lead to a reversal. 5. Zones of Confluence The shaded red and green zones highlight areas of high confluence, where multiple technical factors align, often strong areas for potential reversals or breakout setups. For example, the zones above Wave III are potential resistance levels, aligned with key Fibonacci extensions. 6. Trade Setup Labels Labels like "LONG 2 SHORT 4" and "SHARP 2 SHALLOW 4" indicate potential entry points or setups. They suggest specific plays based on wave structure, where "LONG" and "SHORT" relate to anticipated corrective patterns. 7. Invalidation and Risk Management "INVALIDATION WAVE 0" shows a critical level where the trade idea or wave count would be invalidated if price breaches it, an essential risk management tool. Key Takeaways This chart combines harmonic patterns, Elliott Wave, Fibonacci levels, and volume analysis, aiming for high-probability trade setups. Focus on high-confluence zones like 1.618-2.000 Fibonacci extensions for entries/exits. Manage risk by setting invalidation points and noting potential inducement areas to prevent getting trapped.
Long
by spacedevil
5
GBP/JPY Set for Dramatic MovementsAt Vital Direction, we have conducted an in-depth analysis of GBP/JPY. Since December 2023, GBP/JPY surged in five clear impulsive waves, reaching a pivotal high around 208 yen by July 2024. This level marked a significant turning point, leading to an impulsive downward wave A, followed by a complex corrective phase structured as a WXY pattern. We currently estimate that the Y wave is either complete or nearing completion with a potential top around 202 yen. This would set the stage for a wave C decline, potentially targeting the 174 yen area by February 2025. This projection aligns with broader cyclical patterns, suggesting that GBP/JPY may find a significant bottom following this correction, presenting a possible bullish reversal opportunity thereafter.
by VitalDirection
GBPJPY Support and Resistance Levels: Is 200.50 Within Reach?GBPJPY recently reached a target we discussed a couple of weeks ago, and the bullish trend remains intact above the 197.76 level. The price bounced from this level on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. If the price dips to around 198.42 but holds above 197.76, I anticipate bullish traders will likely support the price, aiming to lift it toward the resistance at 199.43. Should the price break above 199.71—the next target at 200.50 may come into play. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by ThinkMarkets