Downtrend According to the price reaction in the resistance range, it is expected that a trend change has been formed and the continuation of the downward trend according to the specified paths is likely.
GBPJPY.P trade ideas
GBPJPY 1H Time Anticipating a Mid-Week High and Bearish ReversalThe chart provided for the GBP/JPY currency pair on the 1-hour (1H) time frame incorporates a technical breakdown of price movements using Wyckoff Method, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume Profile, and macroeconomic indicators to outline expected market behavior for the coming week. The focus is on the ongoing distribution phase, indicating that a top has been formed, and the pair is now in a bearish reversal. The outlook emphasizes a potential mid-week reversal, likely reaching a high of the week by Wednesday, followed by a significant downward trend as the pair enters Phase C of a larger Wyckoff distribution pattern.
Key Terminology & Concepts
Wyckoff Method: A methodology that defines market phases (Accumulation, Distribution, and Reaccumulation) based on supply and demand cycles. It often involves testing of support and resistance levels through specific patterns such as Buying Climax (BC), Automatic Reaction (AR), and Secondary Test (ST).
Elliott Wave Theory: Used to interpret the market in terms of impulsive and corrective wave structures, where five waves in the direction of the trend (1-5) are followed by three corrective waves (A-B-C).
Volume Profile: A tool to gauge the highest volume traded at specific price levels, providing insight into where institutional activity is concentrated.
Macro-Economic Events: Key economic data releases (e.g., Tankan Large Manufacturers Index, Consumer Confidence Index) are expected to affect market sentiment and price volatility, acting as potential catalysts for the reversal.
Analysis Breakdown
Wyckoff Distribution Phase
The GBP/JPY chart shows a classic Wyckoff Distribution pattern in progress
Overlap support ahead?GBP/JPY is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 189.02
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level which is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 186.62
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 193.29
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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GBPJPY SHORTOn the daily we already reacted on the AOI then with a deep pull back as a confirmation to the downside is already ticked off. Also the JP255Y is correlated with the YENS pair
Price left a hook point which is our point of value, price will come and retest it then it will continue to move short and since we have a long way down price will move momentum. This is a great trade to capitalize on
Daily GJ Final UpdateHello Traders! Thanks for watching me break down GJ and find a setup that turned out great! See you in October! Safe Trading!
GBPound Down pt2Hello everyone.
This is an update to my previous trade idea.
My idea is based on market structure with a top-down approach.
HTF: this week we find ourselves still inside the HTF continuation structure with better confirmation and development to the downside.
LTF : the chart reversed at the predicted POI zone with a strong LTF impulse ,i will be waiting for chart development to see if we can get another continuation pattern. I will be looking for entries on my entry timeframe.
While i understand the mechanics of my trading plan i take into consideration that the chart has no time limit and development {that i am looking for} might come sooner or take longer then others . if the chart does not fit my plan i will not trade and wait for further development
Thank You.
#GBPJPY 1HGBPJPY 1-Hour Chart Analysis
Pattern Identified: Bearish Market Bias with Focus on Selling at Pullbacks
Forecast: Sell
Outlook for Next Week: Good Luck
On the 1-hour chart of GBPJPY (British Pound/Japanese Yen), the market is showing a clear bearish bias, with sellers in control of the overall price direction. In this environment, the primary strategy will be to focus on selling opportunities during pullbacks. These pullbacks are temporary upward movements that retrace part of the decline before the bearish trend continues.
By identifying key resistance levels and zones where price retraces, traders can prepare to enter short positions when the upward retracement weakens and the price resumes its downward move. This approach aims to capitalize on the prevailing downward momentum while avoiding entering trades at potential lows.
Actionable Insight: Traders should be patient and vigilant for signs of pullbacks towards resistance levels or Fibonacci retracement zones. Once price hits these areas and shows signs of resuming its bearish trend, it can provide an optimal entry point for a sell trade. Using tight stop-loss orders above resistance areas or retracement highs can help manage risk effectively.
Good Luck for the Next Week: Stay disciplined, and may your trading week be successful!
KOG's RED BOXES - GBPJPY
GBPJPY – 4H
191.483 break above for 192.843 / 194.361
189.689 break below for 187.461
Have a look at the previous pinned posts on Red boxes to familiarise yourself with how they are so effective in keeping traders the right side of the markets.
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As always, trade safe.
KOG
GBPJPY Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
Risk Disclaimer:
Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
GBPJPY 1H Time Anticipating a Mid-Week High and Bearish ReversalOverview
The chart provided for the GBP/JPY currency pair on the 1-hour (1H) time frame incorporates a technical breakdown of price movements using Wyckoff Method, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume Profile, and macroeconomic indicators to outline expected market behavior for the coming week. The focus is on the ongoing distribution phase, indicating that a top has been formed, and the pair is now in a bearish reversal. The outlook emphasizes a potential mid-week reversal, likely reaching a high of the week by Wednesday, followed by a significant downward trend as the pair enters Phase C of a larger Wyckoff distribution pattern.
Key Terminology & Concepts
Wyckoff Method: A methodology that defines market phases (Accumulation, Distribution, and Reaccumulation) based on supply and demand cycles. It often involves testing of support and resistance levels through specific patterns such as Buying Climax (BC), Automatic Reaction (AR), and Secondary Test (ST).
Elliott Wave Theory: Used to interpret the market in terms of impulsive and corrective wave structures, where five waves in the direction of the trend (1-5) are followed by three corrective waves (A-B-C).
Volume Profile: A tool to gauge the highest volume traded at specific price levels, providing insight into where institutional activity is concentrated.
Macro-Economic Events: Key economic data releases (e.g., Tankan Large Manufacturers Index, Consumer Confidence Index) are expected to affect market sentiment and price volatility, acting as potential catalysts for the reversal.
Analysis Breakdown
Wyckoff Distribution Phase
The GBP/JPY chart shows a classic Wyckoff Distribution pattern in progress:
BC (Buying Climax): The first major peak in price where significant buying pressure was observed, followed by a Secondary Test (ST) to confirm resistance levels. This confirms the end of the markup phase and the start of the distribution.
AR (Automatic Reaction): This is the downward reaction following the BC, showing early signs of supply overtaking demand.
UT (Upthrust in Phase B): After testing previous highs, the price made a final upward push to create an Upthrust, usually considered a false breakout, trapping buyers before a significant move lower. This signals the conclusion of Phase B.
LPSY (Last Point of Supply): After forming the Upthrust, the price begins to roll over. LPSY acts as a minor pullback or resistance area before the downward trend accelerates.
Elliott Wave Count and Structure
The current structure also incorporates Elliott Wave Theory, particularly focusing on the downward impulse:
Wave (i): The initial downward movement after the Upthrust (UT), marking the beginning of the new bearish trend.
Wave (ii): A corrective pullback higher, expected to peak around the Resistance Line (193.482), possibly forming the Wednesday high of the week before the trend resumes lower.
Wave (iii): This is anticipated to be the strongest and longest wave of the downtrend, targeting much lower price levels as the price accelerates towards the support line near 180.085.
Volume Profile & Key Levels
The Volume Profile outlines areas of institutional activity:
POC (Point of Control) at 188.925 on the daily time frame acts as a pivot level where the highest trading volume has been observed. This will act as a key support level in the short term.
Resistance Lines (1H and 1D) at 193.482 and 193.324 mark significant supply zones where sellers are likely to reenter the market. These lines align with the Wave (ii) corrective top, signaling a reversal point.
Fibonacci & Wave Projections
0.618 Fibonacci retracement level around 193.286 is expected to act as a strong resistance level where the Wave (ii) correction will likely terminate. This level also coincides with previous high-volume areas, marking it as a potential point of exhaustion for buyers.
Wave 3 No Trades Below: A warning that no buying should occur below this level as it represents the breakdown level below Wave (iii).
Macroeconomic Factors
Several major macroeconomic data releases are aligned with potential inflection points in the price action:
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Oct 2) and Consumer Confidence Index (Oct 2) are expected to catalyze increased volatility around the LPSY. These releases are forecasted to have bearish implications for the yen, potentially leading to a brief rally before price reverses lower.
The macroeconomic events align closely with the anticipated mid-week high, marking a potential turning point in the Wave (ii) correction before entering a sharp decline into Wave (iii).
Price Expectations for the Next Week
1. Short-Term Correction (Wave ii)
As the chart suggests, the price is in a Wave (ii) corrective pullback, expected to peak around the 193.482 - 193.286 area. This level coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and key resistance lines. Wednesday of the coming week is expected to mark the high of the week, aligning with macroeconomic data releases.
2. Mid-Week Reversal
Following the mid-week peak, a sharp reversal is anticipated, marking the start of Wave (iii) of the downtrend. This wave should see significant bearish momentum, with the price breaking below POC (188.925) and accelerating lower.
Target for Wave (iii): The 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the downward move projects a target of 181.688, followed by further downside potentially reaching 180.509, aligning with the SC Accumulation support line (4H).
3. Key Resistance & Support Levels
Resistance at 193.482: Expected to act as a strong barrier for price, where sellers will likely re-enter, forming the mid-week high.
Support at 188.925: The Point of Control (POC) serves as an interim support level, but a break below it confirms the continuation of the downtrend.
Support at 180.085: This is the key support line marking the end of Wave 3. The price is expected to stabilize around this area as we approach Phase C of the Wyckoff structure.
Conclusion
For the GBP/JPY on the 1-hour time frame, the outlook suggests a short-term upward correction into Wednesday, forming the high of the week around 193.286-193.482, followed by a sharp reversal driven by macroeconomic factors such as the Tankan Large Manufacturers Index and Consumer Confidence Index. After the reversal, a significant downward movement is expected in Wave (iii), with a target near 181.688 - 180.509.
In summary, the week ahead is likely to see bearish momentum dominate after a brief corrective rally early in the week, as the pair completes its distribution phase and enters the markdown phase.
GBPJPY Super super Bearish hello guys GBPJPY looks super bearish to me i am looking to sell at the 25% - 50% level what do yo guys think?
GBPJPY View!!An FX option note from Societe Generale highlights the potential for EUR/GBP to bounce with relative rates and suggests taking advantage of low option prices to benefit.
EUR/GBP has lost 3.5% since early August highs above 0.8600, which is consistent with the widening GBP-EUR rate differential. Soc Gen rates strategists think the market is pricing in more than enough ECB rate cuts in a soft-landing scenario, while the BoE will struggle to remain restrictive. In this context, the strategists expect the EUR-GBP rate differential to rebound imminently, lifting EUR/GBP with it. They also highlight how relative economic surprises are now also pointing upwards.
GBPJPY / TRADING BELOW FVG - 4HGBPJPY / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
The price is under bearish pressure (declining) while it is trading below a "Fair Value Gap" (FVG) between the levels of 194.180 and 192.122.
Friday Drop: On Friday, the GBP/JPY dropped by 3.03%, and the decline is still ongoing.
Support Levels: If the price remains below the FVG, the decline is expected to continue, with the price potentially reaching 188.272, and if it breaks below that, the next target is demand zone between 184.596 and186.510.
Reversal Scenario: Conversely, if the price breaks above the FVG (specifically above 194.180) and stabilizes, it could signal a rise. The first upward target is 196.037. To confirm an uptrend, the price would need to break above 196.037 and also break out of a price channel, with a final target of supply zone between 198.200 and 199.474.
GbpJpyGJ will fall to its weekly support level as Japanese yen has got back its power last week and is trying push British pound to its lower levels so we will be seeing a downward move in the pair and we have sold it to our support level trader may see a pull back over to its Previous support became resistance level and then a fall to its weekly support
Thanx
GBPJPY possible week ahead trajectory GBPJPY has strong drop past week with JPY news has broken out of the structure. The price is currently below the weekly support level as with the formation of a weekly pin bar, there still bearing momentum. We may see further downside with GBPJPY, may drop to weekly support and could continue to bounce back to 194.25 level with strong momentum.
GBPJPY POTENTIAL SHORT OPPORTUNITYHello Everyone!
How are you all?
GbpJpy is a pair to watch this week, because it has shaped up very nicely for a sell trend continuation that we can capitalize on.
So, I will be looking for a sell continuation because of the following reasons:
1. The overall trend is bearish
2. The price has formed a continuation structure.
3. The price is rejected the value area.
Game Plan:
If the price forms a 15mins flag with two highs and lows.
Entry : will look for a risk sell entry within the flag or a reduced risk entry on the breakout of the flag.
Why Institutions Are Rushing to Sell GBP/JPY!The overall outlook for GBP/JPY remains bearish, with price action favoring a drop below these support levels as the yen strengthens and market sentiment turns cautious following Japan’s CPI data. Expect continued volatility throughout the week, particularly as traders react to macroeconomic updates and shifting institutional flows. I expect the GBP/JPY pair to move lower in the coming sessions, largely driven by macroeconomic factors out of Japan and current price action dynamics.
Key Drivers:
1. Japan's CPI Decline:
Japan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped from 2.4% to 2.0%, reflecting softer inflationary pressures. This reduces the likelihood of any imminent tightening measures from the Bank of Japan, potentially leading to further yen strength as the CPI miss could weaken the argument for monetary normalization. The yen's appreciation should drive GBP/JPY lower.
2. Technical Analysis:
- On the daily chart, GBP/JPY is trading near the key resistance level of 188. A break below this level could trigger further downside movement.
- On the weekly chart, there is potential for a move down to 185, which coincides with an important support zone. A breach of 185 would likely expose the next major support level around 180, a psychological barrier and key level for traders.
3. Institutional Activity:
Within an hour of the CPI release, institutional flows shifted decisively to the bearish side, a clear indication of how major market players are positioning themselves. This move reinforces the downside pressure and suggests that further bearish momentum could follow in the short term.
Short-Term Targets:
- First Support: 188 (key level)
- Next Support: 185 (near-term downside target)
- Further Support: 180 (longer-term support zone)
As the week unfolds, pay close attention to price action around the 188 and 185 levels for confirmation of continued bearish momentum, with 180 as the next major target.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this projection is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial or investment advice. Forex trading involves substantial risk, and you should carefully consider your financial situation before participating in such markets. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and market conditions can change rapidly. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and this projection reflects my personal opinion based on current market data and analysis. You are advised to conduct your own research or consult a professional before making any trading decisions.
GBPJPY - Helicopter ViewIn the daily chart, we can see the strong sell for GbpJpy. Other than that, we see many confluences of rejections.
Now it's clearly the latest direction following the selling pressure. We need to check the LTF for the best entry zone.
Eurgbp Eurgbp was on a uptrend but changed structure and will drop a nice reversal candle stick on de 1 week time frame so we wait for the retracment and then we short
GBPJPY → A sideways range is forming. Emphasis on resistance...FX:GBPJPY is strengthening after forging a double bottom at 184.0. It is also favored by the JPY correction on the back of the dollar correction after the unpredictable reaction to the US interest rate cuts...
The currency pair may continue its decline from the resistance zone 192-193.5. This is facilitated by a number of nuances: Japan still holds the course for further strengthening of interest rates in order to save the value of the national currency. The dollar may continue its fall after traders come to their senses after the US interest rate cuts....
Overall, this tandem can have a strong impact on the JPY strength and on the currency pair as a whole, allows to form a medium-long term strategy on the currency pair.
Technically, I am waiting for a false breakdown or bounce from the mentioned resistance zone with the subsequent decline to the liquidity zone....
Resistance levels: 191.4, 193.48, 193.97
Support levels: 190.5, 186.7
BUT! If the bulls manage to consolidate above 193.97, then an upward impulse may be formed, because at the moment the environment (technical and fundamental background) is still tense...
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:GBPJPY ;)
Regards R. Linda!
GBPJPY: Bearish Outlook Explained 🇬🇧🇯🇵
We see the exemplary bullish trap on GBPJPY on a daily.
After a false violation of a major daily resistance,
the price formed a high momentum bearish candle a dropped rapidly.
I think that the pair has a nice potential to continue falling.
We may see some minor correction first
and a bearish continuation to 188.88 level then.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
GBPY PROFITABLE TOP DOWN ANALYSIS STRATEGY OANDA:GBPJPY is showing signs of strength on a weekly timeframe after forming double bottom on a weekly Fibonacci Retracement area. But on a daily timeframe the 50 Fibonacci Retracement area is being respected with the daily resistance acting as a confluence point Will might see further down side for a third touch on the trendline line before it actual bullish continuation.
