GBPUSD.1.CSM trade ideas
GBP/USD Bullish Cycle: Wave 5 Nears Completion, What's Next?GBP/USD is nearing the completion of wave 5 of lower degree, signaling a potential pullback for a higher-degree wave 4 correction. This retracement could set the stage for the final leg up in the broader bullish structure. Will key support levels hold before the next rally? Here’s my in-depth Elliott Wave analysis!
GBP/USD Technical Analysis- Daily Chart:
- Price tapped into resistance at 1.2300 on Monday and broke through.
- Bullish potential towards 1.2500 if we break and close above 1.2380.
- Bearish scenario if price closes below 1.2232, targeting 1.2150.
- H4 Chart:
- 1.2300 is turning from resistance to support.
- A break below 1.2230 would invalidate bullish outlook, shifting focus to the downside.
- Current Focus:
- Watching for a break and close above 1.2380 for bullish continuation towards 1.2490.
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GBPUSDHello Traders! What are your thoughts on GBPUSD?
My GBPUSD Technical Analysis Breakdown
Current Market Context
The British Pound versus US Dollar (GBPUSD) has shown resilience by bouncing from the critical $1.2300 support level. This price action suggests buyers are defending this level, though we remain within a larger bearish channel.
Technical Setup
- Strong support established at $1.2300
- Key resistance level: $1.2440 (bearish channel resistance)
- Current price action: Upward momentum from support
- Market structure: Inside bearish channel
Trade Scenarios
1. Bullish Scenario
- Entry Trigger: Clear break and close above $1.2440
- Profit Target: $1.2610
- Stop Loss: Below $1.2300
- Risk/Reward ratio: Approximately 1:2
2. Bearish Scenario
- Entry Trigger: Break below $1.2300
- Profit Target: $1.2210
- Stop Loss: Above $1.2340
- Risk/Reward ratio: Approximately 1:2.2
Today's Trading Plan
- Trading Range: $1.2300 - $1.2475
- Recommendation: Wait for clear breakout confirmation
- Risk Management: Keep position sizes moderate given current market uncertainty
- Key Action Points: Watch for strong price action and volume at key levels before entering
Remember: Enter trades only when your chosen scenario shows clear confirmation signals. This reduces the risk of getting caught in false breakouts.
Gbpusd continuation to the upside. Price Action : GBP/USD is currently in a 4-hour Point of Interest (POI) bullish pattern which shows a retracement.
London Session took out Asian lows, indicating a strong bullish momentum.
SMT divergence with EUR/USD.
Entry: 15min fvg balanced @1.2245
Target: Asian highs and the ultimate target is the buyside at 1.23455.
gbpusd bias still bullish.Monthly Timeframe: Price has been bullish after the liquidity sweep.
Weekly Timeframe: The weekly candle closed bullish.
Asian Session: Lows have been swept, indicating potential bullish momentum.
Price Action: Price has reached a POI (4hr, 1hr SIBI), adding more confluence to longs.
Entry: @1.24350
Targets: Looking to target Asian session highs and last week's high.
There is also a volume imbalance that will attract price to the upside in addition to the buyside liquidity.
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 27, 2025 GBPUSDGBPUSD:
The GBP/USD pair starts the new week on a weaker note and loses some of Friday's strong gains to the psychological 1.25000 mark, or nearly three-week peak. Spot prices are currently trading around 1.24600, down 0.20% on the day amid modest US Dollar (USD) strength, although the decline is not accompanied by any selling or bearish conviction.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against a basket of currencies, is recovering from a more than one-month low amid a flight to safety triggered by US President Donald Trump's decision to impose duties on imports to Colombia. Trump imposed 25 per cent tariffs on all imports from Colombia after the latter refused to allow two US military planes carrying deported migrants to land in the country. Trump also warned that the tariffs would be increased to 50 per cent next week if there was further non-compliance, fuelling fears of global trade wars and dampening investor appetite for riskier assets.
However, significant US dollar strength seems unlikely amid rising bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut borrowing costs twice before the end of this year amid signs that US inflationary pressures are easing. Expectations were further heightened following comments by Trump last Thursday, who said he would call for an immediate cut in interest rates. This led to a fresh drop in US Treasury bond yields, which should curb further dollar strength. In addition, uncertainty over the prospects of a rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in February is helping to limit GBP/USD losses.
Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Bearish reversal?GBP/USD has reacted off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.2477
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.2613
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Take profit: 1.2367
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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