GBPUSD - Will the pound return to the bullish trajectory?!The GBPUSD pair is located between the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. In case of a downward correction, the pair can be bought within the specified demand zone.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated that the government has clearly received the message regarding deregulation. He emphasized that simplifying regulations and removing certain restrictions could have a positive impact on economic activities and businesses. Starmer also highlighted the transformative potential of artificial intelligence in the economy. He added that the UK’s economic outlook is improving and that the government’s top priority is “growth, growth, and growth.” Additionally, he pointed to the significant trade partnership between the UK and the United States, stressing that this economic collaboration could play a key role in the country’s future growth.
Meanwhile, analysts at TD Securities believe that the Federal Reserve will refrain from cutting interest rates in the first half of this year. This decision is attributed to the persistence of core inflation and the resilience of the U.S. economy in the first quarter, which keeps policymakers cautious. Furthermore, the potential economic impact of new tariffs under a Trump administration in the second quarter reinforces this outlook.
Although the Federal Reserve officially bases its decisions on economic data, TD Securities argues that political influences are becoming increasingly significant in shaping monetary policy. According to TD, Trump’s role in U.S. monetary policy is growing. As a result, the institution maintains a bullish outlook on the U.S. dollar and sees any rate cuts as buying opportunities, particularly against the euro, Canadian dollar, and British pound.
At the same time, analysts at Goldman Sachs believe that the Federal Reserve will wait for further progress in reducing inflation before proceeding with additional rate cuts. However, they still expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to implement two 0.25% rate cuts later this year, in June and December, with an additional cut projected for 2026.
Additionally, economists at Citi anticipate that the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—the 12-month PCE inflation rate—will decline in the coming months as the effects of the sharp price increases from early 2024 begin to fade. They also note that both the six-month and three-month core PCE inflation rates are on a downward trajectory and are expected to fall below 2.5%.
