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GBPUSD /Sterling Hits 8-Month Low Amid Bearish MomentumGBP/USD Analysis Sterling Weakens to an 8-Month Low The British pound has dropped to $1.240, marking its lowest level in eight months. This decline is driven by concerns over the UK’s economic resilience and a stronger US dollar. The UK economy remains stagnant, with revised Q3 figures showing no growth, adding to the challenges faced by Prime Minister Keir Starmer's new government. Furthermore, the Bank of England's dovish stance in its final 2024 rate decision has placed additional pressure on the pound. Trade tensions also weigh on the pound, particularly with former US President Trump's proposed tariffs, which could disrupt UK trade. Technical Outlook The GBP/USD pair maintains a bearish momentum, though a correction to 1.2485 is possible, especially if the price stabilizes above 1.2409. If the price breaks 1.2485 and closes a 4-hour candle above it, this could signal the start of a bullish continuation towards 1.2610. Conversely, if the price reverses and stabilizes below 1.2409, it could drop further to test 1.2315. A sustained move below 1.2409 would strengthen the bearish outlook, with potential targets at 1.2315 and 1.2215. Key levels Pivot Line: 1.2409 Resistance lines: 1.2485, 1.2532, 1.2611 Support Lines: 1.2315, 1.2215, 1.2150 Trend Outlook Consolidation: Between 1.2409 and 1.2485 Bearish: Below 1.2400 Bullish: Above 1.2486
Short
by SroshMayi
Emerging Swing Trade OpportunityHello, GBPUSD sees more downside as the dollar stays strong as doubts about fed rate cuts grow so the UK struggles to find a way out of the market slump that it is currently in.Early gains of +0.15% were seen as the USD came under pressure late in NY, following a +0.05% close. Trump advisors considering gradual tariff hikes led to USD selling in late NY. A survey shows UK firms reduced headcount late last year in response to a tax hike. Mixed daily momentum studies and expanding 21-day Bollinger bands are noted in charts. The 5, 10, and 21-DMAs are sliding, with weeklies remaining bearish, indicating a strong negative slip. The focus is on testing the 1.2038 low from October 2023, followed by the 1.1805 low in March 2023. Friday's high of 1.2322 and the well-tested 1.2465 21 DMA are the first resistance levels. Bulls need a close above the 1.2465 21-DMA to gain excitement. A swing trade opportunity is emerging, with strong daily and weekly resistance at 1.226201/1.241555 which have to confirm upside along the way and act as supports. Ultimately, we want the monthly initial support at 1.24809 to hold, ensuring a guaranteed upside. No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost TradeWithTheTrend3344
Long
by TradeWithTheTrend3344
GBP/USD: How Low Can It Go? With the British government taking a battering in the bond markets and stronger-than-expected US economic data, we explore how low GBP/USD could sink in the weeks ahead. A Crisis of Confidence: Weak UK Fiscal Plans Meet Strong US Data The recent slide in GBP/USD reflects a perfect storm of weak UK fiscal credibility and robust US economic performance. Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report showed 256,000 jobs were added in December, far exceeding expectations of 160,000. Combined with a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1%, this data underscores the resilience of the US economy and has led markets to price in higher-for-longer interest rates. The US Dollar, as a result, has surged, pushing the Dollar Index to a two-year high. Across the pond, the UK faces a credibility gap in its fiscal strategy under the Labour government. Rising gilt yields, now at their highest levels since 1998, mirror market scepticism over the sustainability of public finances. Concerns around higher borrowing costs and the potential for stagnation are exacerbated by the government's promise not to seek new borrowings for day-to-day expenses—a pledge that many view as increasingly untenable. While officials attempt to reassure markets, the lack of a cohesive plan is adding to the downward pressure on the Pound. 3 Technical Tools to Gauge How Low GBP/USD Might Fall GBP/USD has been under heavy selling pressure since September, carving out a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows on the daily candle chart. This prolonged downtrend has triggered a 'death cross,' where the 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day moving average. While this lagging indicator is often seen as a signal of continued bearish momentum, it’s worth noting that it reflects the strength of the existing trend rather than predicting future moves. To gauge how low GBP/USD might fall, we’ve employed three key price action tools: 1. Descending Channel Drawing a descending channel around GBP/USD’s decline highlights the approximate volatility of the downtrend. The pair is currently nearing the lower boundary of this channel, suggesting a potential area where buyers might step in. GBP/USD Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results 2. Relative Strength Index (RSI) The RSI has broken below 30, indicating oversold conditions. However, there is no bullish divergence—a signal that could suggest weakening bearish momentum—indicating the downtrend remains intact for now. GBP/USD Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results 3. Historical Inflection Points Looking left on the weekly candle chart reveals key support levels. GBP/USD is approaching the October 2023 lows. If this level fails to hold, the next significant supports lie at the March 2023 lows, followed by a steep drop toward the September 2022 lows. These levels represent critical areas where the pair could stabilise or reverse. GBP/USD Weekly Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Summary: GBP/USD remains firmly in bearish territory, with both fundamentals and technicals pointing to further downside risks. Traders can focus on key support levels, RSI divergence and candle patterns to determine the timing of any short-term bounce. Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
by Capitalcom
GBPUSD: Fibonacci Levels and Oversold Zones Strengthen SupportThe DXY's strength has pressured markets into critical territories, pushing the pound toward key support levels towards 1.2030. Fibonacci Extensions Using the Fibonacci extension tool on the corrective pattern between the July 2023 high (1.3125), October 2023 low (1.2030), and September 2024 high (1.3434), the notable 1.272 extension level aligns with the 1.2030 support. Momentum Indicators The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is retesting levels last seen in October 2023 and September 2022 at 24.30, indicating potential near-term reversal probabilities. What to Watch If current support holds, a reversal could push the pair toward resistance at 1.2770, coinciding with the upper border of the 15-year consolidation range. This would require a decisive close above the 2024 lows at 1.2330. If bearish pressures persist below the critical 1.20 level, further declines could target the 1.5 and 1.618 Fibonacci extension levels, aligning with the 1.18 and 1.1670 zones, respectively. - Razan Hilal, CMT
by FOREXcom
Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 13 - 17 JanuaryMarket Insights with Gary Thomson: UK & US Inflation, UK GDP Growth, Corporate Earnings Statements We’re excited to launch our new forward-looking ‘Market Insights’ series! Hosted by FXOpen’s UK COO, Gary Thomson, this series provides a fresh perspective on global markets, highlighting upcoming economic data, geopolitical events, and central bank announcements. In this episode: - How could the US inflation rate influence the US dollar? - What might UK GDP growth and inflation data mean for the struggling British pound? - Which corporate earnings reports could drive the US stock market this week? Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey. 🌐 FXOpen official website: www.fxopen.com CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.
by FXOpen
1
Bearish Outlook on GBPUSD: Short Opportunities Next Week - Key Insights: The UK pound is facing substantial weakness due to rising inflation expectations and geopolitical uncertainties. The US dollar maintains its bullish momentum, providing traders with favorable shorting opportunities against GBP. Traders should focus on the upcoming economic data from the UK that may further influence GBP's performance and market sentiment. - Price Targets: Next week targets for shorts include T1: 1.20500 and T2: 1.19500. Stop levels are set at S1: 1.21700 and S2: 1.22000 to ensure risk management in the current bearish environment. - Recent Performance: GBP/USD has experienced notable volatility, reflecting the negative sentiment towards the pound. It has notably weakened against the dollar, leading to an increased focus on bearish trading strategies as conditions remain unfavorable for the GBP. - Expert Analysis: Experts maintain a cautious stance on the GBP while expressing a consistently bullish outlook for the dollar. The ongoing volatility suggests a bearish trend for GBP/USD, with potential for further selling opportunities as traders remain strategic in their engagements. - News Impact: Macroeconomic factors, including inflation and potential data releases concerning employment and GDP growth in the UK, are critical in shaping the near-term trajectory of GBP/USD. Market participants should remain vigilant about these influencing indicators as the week unfolds.
Short
by CrowdWisdomTrading
GBPUSD | 09.01.2025BUY 1.22800 | STOP 1.22200 | TAKE 1.23600 | The pound is losing ground during the Asian session on January 9, developing a strong "bearish" momentum formed last Tuesday and working out the mark of 1.23210 today to break down. We expect a corrective upward movement of the price to consolidate the trend of movement. The focus of British investors' attention is on retail price statistics from the British Consortium of Retailers (BRC): in December, the index fell by 1.0% after -0.6% earlier, not justifying preliminary calculations of -0.4% and signaled a weakening of price pressure in the UK.
Long
by ProPhiTrade
GBP/USD bullish move recovery on H4 timeframe must read caption.GBP/USD will retrace from here now and will recover itself I have prepared this chart for and it displays the GBP/USD pair on a 4-hour timeframe. It shows a long-term downtrend from mid-2024 to early 2025. A support level, previously established in an earlier timeframe, is marked near the 1.2200-1.2400 price level. This area serves as a buy entry point, with a target for potential upward price movement indicated. The pair has recently tested the support zone, suggesting a possible rebound. However, its performance is sensitive to external factors such as economic and political developments in the UK and the US. UK Market-Affecting News: 1. Economic Data: GDP Growth : The UK has recently reported slower economic growth, raising concerns about a potential recession. Inflation: Persistent inflationary pressures are impacting consumer spending and business confidence. BoE Monetary Policy : The Bank of England's decision to pause or raise interest rates in light of slowing growth and high inflation could influence GBP/USD. 2. Social Factors: Cost-of-Living Crisis: Rising energy bills and food prices are putting pressure on household budgets, dampening economic activity. Strikes and Protests: Various sectors are experiencing labor strikes, creating additional uncertainties for businesses and supply chains. 3. Political Uncertainty: Discussions on post-Brexit trade agreements, especially related to Northern Ireland, continue to weigh on investor sentiment. 4. Global Factors: Any signs of a US Federal Reserve pivot or sustained hawkishness will directly affect the dollar and, by extension, the GBP/USD exchange rate. These factors should be considered but along with analysis I have shown in the above chart. Key levels: Buy GBP/USD from; 1.21400-1.21200 Target at; 1.23100 SL at; 1.20010 Kindly support me guys if you found this helpful for you. Like comment and share this idea with friends. Share your thoughts in comments below.
Long
by Jacks_Trading_Service
GBPUSD D1 I Bullish Bounce Off?Based on the daily chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling to our buy entry at 1.2074, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibo projection Our take profit is set at 1.2308, a pullback resistance. The stop loss will be placed at 1.1846, which is below 100% Fibo projection, providing room for price fluctuations while maintaining a favorable risk-reward ratio. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
$GBPUSD Smashes 500 to 1000 PIPS– Ready for the Next Power Move?FX:GBPUSD pair has delivered an epic performance, locking in a massive +1000 PIPS on the whole swing and +562 PIPS on the half swing! After smashing through +250 pips in the latest move, the big question arises: what's next for the Wave Swingers? With precision setups and powerful momentum, we analyze the next potential opportunities in this explosive trend. Stay patience & focused for the next wave of dominance! > All Trade setups provided advanced in time on IDEAS & MINDS.
Short
by blamezak_trades
GBP/USD IS BEARISH TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Cable is 100% bearish. On a monthly,weekly and daily perspective she is bearish. We will be looking for sells however we do see some buying opportunities located around 1.19 and above. For sellers we are seeing them primarily in control with no signs of reversal. The goal here for the account is to focus heavy on the continuation and to utilize our gains wisely. This year will be a year where I will be focusing on account builds (small to big). This compound skill is a skillset that is worth multi millions and if learned correctly will literally separate you from 99% of traders. The key from what it seems in my research is finding the right timing and scaling into the bigger overall move with intra day positions. Another way is to effectively focus on % gain wins w/ a decent weekly hit rate. Both are scenarios in which require the trader to understand the asset of choice like the back of their hand. Another goal of mine this year will be finally tackling the prop firm space. Now this particular space to me screams red flags due to the lack of reliability and the casino effect tied to all prop firms world wide. In short, the casino effect reflects on how hard these prop firms will be towards profitable traders. They can create rules and eliminate winning trades because of some made up rule they decided to implement. To me, that is one of the biggest issues I have and people playing with hard earned money is a huge no for me and to make matters worse, all these accounts we are paying for are demo accounts. However, I cant just ignore the space so to meet everything half way I will be purchasing the smallest account size available. Doing this, my investment towards their business model is minimal and the profits will be used to scale into the biggest account they have. This will also let my models prove to me they are ready to tackle space and effectively generate weekly % gains in order to even consider investing into any prop firm. Other than that, GBP/USD is bearish and we are ready to push our models in order to facilitate the upcoming plays. As always, trade safe. Mr.Oazb
Short
by MROAZB
Why is Deutsche Bank selling the pound? Deutsche Bank FX strategist Vice President Shreyas Gopal has shifted to a bearish stance on the British pound. The pound fell nearly 2% against a strong US dollar last week, hitting a 14-month low of $1.2200. Unlike the dip in November 2024, following the UK budget, Gopal does not see this decline as a buying opportunity. "We favor selling GBP against a basket of major currencies," Gopal stated, highlighting the euro, dollar, Swiss franc, and Japanese yen. Gopal warns that the pound could face further downside, particularly if the Bank of England cuts rates in February—a scenario currently priced at a 65% probability. While some market participants may view GBP/USD as oversold, the persistent selling pressure may show few signs of reversing. Key downside targets could be the 2023 low of 1.2000 and the 2022 low of 1.0382.
by BlackBull_Markets