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GBPUSD.P trade ideas

GBPUSD M15 I Bearish Drop Based on the M15 chart, the price is rising toward our sell entry level at 1.2618, aligning with a pullback resistance level and the 50% Fibonacci retracement. This setup suggests a potential bearish reversal. A rejection at this level could drive prices lower toward our take profit at 1.2596, a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. The stop loss is set at 1.2634, a resistance level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
GBPUSD 17 February 2025 TRADE IDEAThe GBP/USD pair is trading within an ascending channel, forming higher highs and higher lows since 2022. Recently, price bounced off the key support zone around 1.2098 - 1.2036, indicating strong bullish pressure. If this momentum continues, the pair is likely to push towards the 1.3365 - 1.3418 resistance zone, which has historically acted as a major supply area. A confirmed break above this level could open the door for further upside towards 1.3762 - 1.4230, aligning with the channel’s upper boundary. However, if price fails to sustain above 1.3365, a pullback towards the 1.2620 - 1.2500 demand zone is possible before another bullish attempt. From a Smart Money Concepts (SMC) perspective, a break of structure (BOS) above 1.3000 would reinforce the bullish bias, while recent lows around 1.2098 might have been a liquidity grab before further upside. There is also a Fair Value Gap (FVG) around 1.3000, which price may seek to fill before continuing higher. Currently, GBP/USD remains in a discount zone, favoring bullish continuation towards premium areas near 1.3365 - 1.3762. Fundamentally, the outlook depends on central bank policies and macroeconomic conditions. The U.S. Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates is a key factor; if the Fed signals rate cuts in 2025, USD weakness could support GBP/USD. However, strong U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation could delay rate cuts, keeping the USD strong. Meanwhile, the Bank of England (BoE) is navigating high inflation and slowing growth. If inflation remains elevated, the BoE may maintain its hawkish stance, which could strengthen GBP. On the geopolitical front, risks such as the Russia-Ukraine war and U.S.-China tensions could drive risk-off sentiment, favoring the USD as a safe haven. Overall, as long as GBP/USD stays above 1.2620, the bias remains bullish, with upside targets at 1.3000, 1.3365, and 1.3762. A confirmed break above 1.3000 would validate further upside, while failure to hold above 1.3365 could trigger a retracement towards 1.2620 - 1.2500 before another bullish move. Would you like additional trade setups or risk management insights? 🚀
Long
by karabompesi
New Update Of GBPUSD 1 H Time frameHere’s an advanced technical insight: --- 1. Structure Analysis The chart demonstrates a bullish structure in the GBP/USD 1-hour timeframe, characterized by: Higher Highs and Higher Lows: The price is respecting an ascending channel, indicating sustained bullish momentum. The Support 1 level (~1.2600) has transitioned from resistance to support, confirming a breakout and potential continuation of the uptrend. --- 2. Supertrend Confirmation (10, 3) The Supertrend indicator aligns with the bullish bias as the price is above the green Supertrend line. Supertrend crossover (red to green) indicates a potential reversal in momentum, which occurred earlier in the demand zone. --- 3. Demand and Support Levels Support 1 (~1.2600): A critical intraday level, likely to act as a short-term pivot point for bulls. If retested, it could provide an opportunity for re-entry. Demand Zone (1.2400–1.2500): A broader accumulation zone based on historical price reactions and the swing low, providing stronger support in case of a deeper correction. --- 4. Price Action within the Ascending Channel The pair is trading in a tight ascending channel, with clear upper and lower boundaries. The midline of the channel can act as dynamic support/resistance. The dashed arrow projection suggests that bulls may target the channel’s upper resistance (~1.2700). --- 5. Probable Scenarios Bullish Scenario: If the price sustains above Support 1 and remains inside the ascending channel, expect continuation toward: Short-Term Target: 1.2650 (minor resistance). Mid-Term Target: 1.2700 (channel resistance). Bearish Scenario: A break below the ascending channel’s lower boundary (~1.2600) could invalidate the bullish bias. Potential downside levels: 1.2550 (local horizontal support). 1.2500–1.2400 (Demand Zone). --- 6. Trade Ideas Long Setup Entry: Wait for a pullback to Support 1 (~1.2600) or channel lower boundary. Target: 1.2650, 1.2700. Stop Loss: Below 1.2580 (to avoid being caught in a false breakout). Short Setup (Countertrend): Entry: If price breaks below the channel (~1.2600). Target: 1.2550, then 1.2500. Stop Loss: Above 1.2635 (to account for a false breakout). --- 7. Risk Management Use proper risk-to-reward ratios (minimum 1:2). Position sizing is critical; align trades with your account's risk tolerance.
by mrsagarfx
UK Employment and Inflation Numbers Ahead; GBP/USD Drifting ArouWhile the UK is evading US tariffs for now, its economy continues to face a somewhat undecided future, with taxes on business set to increase in April and a lingering drag from the elevated interest rates. However, this week’s focus shifts to a rather busy slate of economic data in the UK. Regarding tier-1 metrics, I will largely focus on Tuesday’s employment figures for December 2024 and the January CPI inflation (Consumer Price Index) report on Wednesday. The data comes on the heels of last week’s better-than-expected GDP (Gross Domestic Product) numbers for December 2024. BoE: ‘Gradual and Careful’ Approach You will recall that the Bank of England (BoE) recently cut the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.50% – which did not raise too many eyebrows – and the BoE Governor signalled a ‘gradual and careful’ approach to easing policy. However, the 7-2 MPC vote split (Monetary Policy Committee) caused a stir. BoE member Catherine Mann – a known hawk – joined Swati Dhingra (dove) and voted to cut the Bank Rate by 50 bps. The central bank also released updated quarterly projections revealing an upward revision to inflation and weaker GDP, and it forecasted that the Bank Rate would remain higher for longer. Inflation is expected to rise by 2.8% in Q1 25 (versus 2.4% in the previous forecast) and increase by 3.0% in Q1 26 (versus 2.6% in the previous forecast), followed by inflation cooling back to the BoE’s 2.0% target in 2027. GDP growth is now expected to grow by 0.4% in Q1 25 (down from 1.4% in the prior forecasts), with economic activity predicted to grow by 1.5% in Q1 26. The BoE also estimates that the Bank Rate will remain around 4.5% in Q1 25 but likely fall to 4.2% in Q1 26, against previous forecasts for 3.7%. Markets are currently pricing another 57 bps worth of cuts this year (little more than two rate cuts). UK Employment and Inflation Data Eyed UK employment numbers will be released tomorrow at 7:00 am GMT and are expected to show unemployment ticked higher to 4.5% between October to December 2024, up from 4.4% in November. In terms of wages, both regular pay and pay that includes bonuses are forecast to increase by 5.9% on a year-on-year basis (YY), up from 5.6%. However, while market participants will widely watch the jobs report, which can prove market moving, it is essential to remember the validity of the survey’s data remains in question. Wednesday welcomes the January CPI inflation data at 7:00 am GMT, which is expected to reveal increasing price pressures across key measures. Headline YY CPI inflation is forecast to increase by 2.8% (from December’s reading of 2.5% ), consistent with the BoE’s updated forecasts. The current estimate range is between a high of 2.9% and a low of 2.4%. YY core CPI inflation – excluding volatile food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco items – is estimated to have increased by 3.7%, up from 3.2% in December (estimate range between 3.8% and 3.3%). Regarding services inflation, the YY print is anticipated to rise by nearly a whole percentage point to 5.2%, compared to December’s reading of 4.4%. A rise in price pressures, particularly data that meets or exceeds upper estimates, could prompt investors to pare back rate-cut bets this year. This also places the central bank in a somewhat difficult position, given that it not only reduced the Bank Rate last week, but two MPC members also voted for an outsized 50 bp reduction. GBP/USD: Monthly Bullish Engulfing Formation? The monthly chart shows price is on the verge of pencilling in a bullish engulfing pattern from support at US$1.2173 (textbook engulfing patterns focus on the real bodies, not the upper and lower shadows). Monthly resistance demands attention overhead at US$1.2715, with a break of this barrier likely paving the way north for further outperformance towards another layer of monthly resistance coming in at US$1.3111. Interestingly, buyers and sellers are squaring off at resistance from US$1.2608 on the daily timeframe. The supply area directly to the left of current price (red area) was weak (as noted in a previous piece I posted), with technical buying gathering steam from retesting trendline resistance-turned-support, extended from the high of US$1.3428. If inflation comes in broadly higher than expected, this will likely underpin a bid in the GBP/USD (British pound versus the US dollar) and perhaps pull the currency pair beyond current daily resistance towards the monthly resistance mentioned above at US$1.2715, closely shadowed by another layer of daily resistance at US$1.2752. Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
by FPMarkets
GBPUSD Technical Analysis! SELL! My dear subscribers, GBPUSD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 1.2588 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 1.2490 About Used Indicators: The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
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