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TFM1! trade ideas

Natural Gas: Historic Triple Decade Support LevelHistoric Price Opportunity: NYMEX:NG1! (Natural Gas) is at a crucial level, with prices hovering at a point not consistently broken since a monthly close in July 1995. The weekly chart reinforces this, showing rare closures below this threshold over the last 30 years. Technical Indicators: RSI Bullish Divergence: The weekly RSI divergence suggests underlying strength. Historical Resilience: This price area has been a formidable support zone. Sub-$2 Entry: Historically, entries below $2 have been lucrative over decades. Fundamentals at a Glance: Electricity's Backbone: In the US, natural gas fuels 40% of electric power, significant against the backdrop of consistent year-over-year growth in electricity consumption since 1950, barring 11 years. Green Energy Transition: Natural gas stands to gain from the global shift towards cleaner energy sources. Soaring Exports: Global year-on-year rise in Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exports meets increasing international energy needs. Counter-Trend Investing Perspective: Every investor has heard at one time that the best time to invest is when something isn’t so hot and trendy. Well, the weather has been hot and because of that nobody thinks natural gas is trendy. Trade Strategy Snapshot: Entry: At any level in the $ 1.50s or a firm weekly close above the support zone above $1.60, displaying support confidence. Target: Volume profile's highest point of control level of approximately $2.70. Stop: A stop loss at physiological $1.50 or the $1.44 final low before levels not seen since the 1990s. HODL: A long term holding strategy of greater than a year has historically been successful, where looking for exits along the way has been ideal. As natural gas is a useful commodity this is appealing. Trading involves risks and not certainties; let's navigate the probabilities. Comment with your insights so we can uncover symmetries and diversities of ideas.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by TanHef
4
Natural Gas (NG) - Trading Idea - Go Long!Natural gas futures are declining due to warm weather forecasts indicating less demand for heating, leading to an oversupply. Prices fell as forecasts did not support a cold weather demand spike, with the March Nymex contract price dropping. Analysts suggest the market is trying to discourage production because of the low demand. The expectation for colder weather to boost prices was not met, as forecasts predict warmer conditions across much of the U.S. This situation is seen as a downward spiral for North American natural gas markets, with analysts calling for producers to reduce output. Future forecasts also indicate warmer than normal temperatures, further challenging the market. Despite potential increases in LNG export demand and a slight decrease in production, analysts believe a stable weather forecast and support levels are needed for prices to potentially recover. Adding to the situation, there's potential geopolitical tension escalating in the Middle East with the possibility of conflict expanding to Israel against Hezbollah. Such an event could drastically impact global energy markets, including natural gas, potentially causing a significant surge in prices overnight due to concerns over supply disruptions. This geopolitical risk adds a layer of uncertainty to the already volatile natural gas market. Furthermore, analysts are eyeing a critical support level for natural gas prices at $1.61/MMBtu. Should prices stabilize or geopolitical tensions escalate leading to concerns about supply, it could set the stage for a rebound in prices. If the market finds a bottom at this price level, there's potential for a recovery up to $2.200/MMBtu, especially if demand increases due to unexpected colder weather or supply constraints stemming from geopolitical developments. This scenario underscores the complex interplay between weather forecasts, supply dynamics, and geopolitical tensions in determining natural gas prices.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by ProTradeSignals
2
☄ Natural Gas Futures: This Is Ground Control To Major TomThis publication was partially created by ChatGPT AI, under request to Highlight Ten Factors That Could Drive Natural Gas Prices Below Zero in 2023. Good or bad, y'all be the judge. But here's what ChatGPT said... As an AI, I cannot guarantee the accuracy of such statements, but based on common knowledge, the following factors may be the reasons why natural gas prices drop below zero in 2023: 1. Growth in the use of alternative energy sources such as solar and wind energy. 2. Increasing US shale gas production, which will lead to an increase in global supply. 3. Reduced demand for natural gas due to switching to other types of fuel. 4. Increasing natural gas production in highly competitive countries such as Russia and Qatar. 5. The weakening of economic activity in various countries of the world, including China, the US and Europe. 6. Reducing inflation in various countries, which reduces the cost of natural gas. 7. A record increase in natural gas inventories caused by a reduction in demand and an increase in production. 8. Disputes between countries-suppliers and consumers of natural gas, which may lead to a decrease in exports and imports. 9. Increasing competition in the natural gas market from other producers such as Iran and Iraq. 10. Development of new technologies that make it possible to obtain energy from other sources without the use of natural gas. Technical picture in Natural Gas Futures indicates the biggest YTD decline over the all history of Natural Gas Futures trading since early 1990x. The main chart is adjusted for futures change All History Chart.
NYMEX:NG1!
by Pandorra
11
NATURAL GAS Ultimate Cycles cheat sheet shows sell isn't over.Those who follow us for long know that when trading Natural Gas (NG1!) we use a very distinct long-term pattern that has been in effect for more than ten years and last time (January 22 2023, see chart below) has helped us take a new short at 3.174, running so far +100% in profit: As you see on this 1W chart, the price is now below the High Volatility Zone, but the bottom isn't in yet as there is still room before touching the 15 year Lower Lows trend-line nor has the Sine Wave reached its bottom. At the same time the 1M RSI is breaking below its own Higher Lows trend-line, which is a bearish signal. We estimate a Target Zone within 1.300 - 1.250. Note that a 1W Death Cross was formed in August 2023 and since the March 2009 formation, NG prices a bottom significantly (at least 9 months) later. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by TradingShot
2
Will a new low of 1.50 be possible for natural gas prices?Will a new low of 1.50 be possible for natural gas prices? I am excited to share with you my weekly article. In the first part of this article, we will highlight the most promising futures and stocks at the moment. Despite recent tensions in the bond market, Wall Street once again set a new record high this week. However, Europe remains in a state of uncertainty. While the luxury goods and automobile sectors continue to experience strong growth, financial stocks are suffering significant losses. In the absence of a significant macroeconomic catalyst, volatility appears to have abated. Inflation data expected in the United States this week will be critical to further understanding the current economic landscape. The oil market, Future Crude Oil WTI - Mar 2024, continues to fluctuate, with prices continually rising and falling. This week has seen an increase and the forecast from last week's article seems to be close to reality with prices around $80. The situation remains uncertain in the Middle East, with Israel rejecting a cease-fire offer in Gaza and the United States eliminating pro-Tehran groups in Iraq. At the same time, the U.S. Energy Agency revised downward its production outlook for 2024, forecasting a peak of less than 13.3 million barrels per day. The natural gas future, Future Natural Gas - Mar 2024 still looks uncertain, especially for the next few years. As expected, U.S. natural gas futures prices fell to $1.83/MMBtu-the lowest level reached since September 2020. At the same time, gas production is returning to pre-cold weather levels thanks to the restoration of gas wells that were shut down during the severe cold weather in mid-January. However, technical problems with the Freeport LNG export facility have restricted the flow of gas to LNG export facilities in the United States, and record levels are not expected to return until the facility is fully operational. According to government data, U.S. utilities withdrew only 75 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage last week. This is significantly less than the 217 bcf withdrawn during the same week last year. In addition, the report indicates that the level of gas in storage is still 10.6 percent higher than the seasonal norm. Weather forecasts indicate that temperatures will remain above average until late February. A paradoxical analysis emerges from the rig count. In its weekly survey, Baker Hughes reported a 4-unit increase in the total number of active rigs in the United States, which now stands at 623. There was stability in the number of crude oil rigs (499) while gas rigs increased by 4 to 121. At a time when gas production is very high, rigs continue to increase, causing an oversupply. This excess can have serious consequences on the market, making it more difficult for producers to sell their gas at the desired price. There is no good news coming from the weather, as forecasts indicate that the period between February 17 and 24 will be less cold than expected. There is likely to be a technical rebound in the short term for natural gas prices, but in the medium term I remain pessimistic and believe they may fall as low as 1.50. We may see a price recovery only from April onward. I look forward to sharing the second part of this article next week, where I will look at index futures.
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by Antonio_Ferlito
Looking for a natural gas long trade2.12.24 I am looking for a buy signal for a long trade or natural gas. The video goes over this in a lot of detail so we don't need to do that here. The videos more about setting up the chart to prepare for the reversal... before the reversal happens. My gut level feeling is this is going to be a great reversal trade because the markets at a very strong support even though it may still go a little bit lower before we find the buyers. The important thing for you to take into consideration if you're starting as a trader...Is that there's plenty of time to set the chart up before you have to take a trade... and that effort to set up the chart forces you to review the characteristics of the market that can help you so that you're not paralyzed by a surprise and then the market gets away from you before you realize it.... you're too late. The beautiful things about reversal patterns is that many traders are biased to the current trend of the market and they're not focused on where the real money is going to be made with a higher probability.... and that is the trade in the other direction.
NYMEX:NG1!
by ScottBogatin
2
NG Natural Gas Trade Idea - LongThe upcoming week in the USA is expected to be colder due to shifts in atmospheric patterns, which can bring colder air from the polar regions. This change follows a warmer period, driven by variations in the jet stream and atmospheric pressure systems. The colder weather will likely lead to an increase in natural gas consumption as households and businesses turn up the heat to stay warm​. Buying or going long on natural gas (NG) futures could be strategic due to the expectation of rising demand with colder weather, potential supply constraints, and favorable market sentiment. Increased Demand: Cold weather boosts heating needs, potentially raising NG prices. Supply Constraints: Disruptions could lead to price spikes, benefiting long positions. Market Sentiment: Positive speculation can drive prices up ahead of actual changes in supply/demand. Going long on natural gas futures could be advantageous due to expected increased demand from colder weather and potential supply constraints. Here are hypothetical levels for context: Support Level 1: $1.800 (where buying might increase) Resistance Level 1: $2.200 (where selling pressure could start) Further Levels: Support at $1.650 and resistance at $2.400 as next potential turning points.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by ProTradeSignals
3
Natural Gas - Before Ouching Territory, Let's Rally to $3.8One thing appears to be rather obvious: crude's rally has fizzled out: Oil - Bulls Will Be Totally Annihilated And that's bad news for bulls. If crude's rally has fizzled, can natural gas counter rally? Well, natty hasn't done much all year. One of the reasons is probably that the world, which is controlled by the Communist Party, wants to SaVe ThE WoRlD FrOm CliMatE cHaNge by destroying the plastic industry, which natural gas supplied. Next, they want to get rid of furnaces, which natural gas supplies, and have everyone live on heat pumps (an air conditioner with a blow side that can get hot instead of just cold), which rely on electricity and not natural gas. At least electricity generation itself still mostly relies on natural gas, and that's never going to be replaced by solar and wind because the technology doesn't meet the requirements of modern consumption. At the end of July, I called that Natty would not go up until it goes down more, because it seemed to me at the time that the charts just don't have institutional support to go uppy past $10 this year. NatGas - No Moon Until Doom \ Right now, if you want to go long on anything, because it doesn't matter if it's DoCToR CoPpEr or equities or gold, you have to be either low risk or hedged, because of the imminent threat of the collapse of the Chinese Communist Party. Xi Jinping has the game theory problem of being the head of the most wicked and heinous regime in all of human history, the Party that dared to commit organ harvesting and genocide against Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners. Although that persecution was launched by former, and now-dead Chairman Jiang Zemin, and although Xi has been killing the Jianglings for years in his Anti-corruption Campaign, the problem is Xi is still the head of the Party, and you always kill a dragon by severing its head. And its tail was already severed recently when former Premier Li Keqiang was killed by "an heart attack" at the ripe age of 68, which is very young for a Party prince to die. If Xi dumps the CCP Gorbachev-USSR style in the middle of the night, especially if it happens on a Friday or a Saturday, everything is going to be gap down gap down gap down gap down and never come back because of the time difference between Beijing and Manhattan. And if Xi really is too stupid to do that much, there's still a raging pandemic besieging Zhongnanhai, and the Emperor's bedroom has never been immune to plague. So over the last few months, what's happened with natural gas is, it's up apparently a lot. Like, from $2.7 to $3.6 sort of a lot and looked almost rampy on the monthly bars until it corrected this November: The weekly, though, shows the pain that the rallies keep getting sold off: And this is because the rallies weren't really rallies. What would happen is one month would settle and the next month's contract, which is trading in contango, would roll in and give the appearance of uppy and smash up levered futures traders. But the ETFs show that natty has done absolutely nothing all year. UNG, which is an unlevered fund: Is down 56% this year, hasn't rallied one bit, and looks poised to break necks around $4, because what doesn't go up is going to go down. It's been flat for too long. 2x leverage BOIL (long) had a 20:1 reverse split 6 months ago, never rallied, and looks pretty puketacular right now: And 2x leverage KOLD (short): Has spent 6 months in a 35% range killing options buyers in what looks like a "bear flag" that's just taken way too long to do the thing bear flags are supposed to do. And so we can only surmise that the once-fabled $1.8 to $1.6 range on Natty is incoming. Perhaps we'll see this magic before the end of the year. If you want to short natty, I have some reservations that this $3.6 monthly high is going to remain the monthly high, because it was set on the first day of the month. And so there is a potential trade opportunity, roughly now, to take out like $3.8 and net a 25% bagger. Or just wait until $3.7 and go short on a size that you aren't going to get liquidated on until $5 and be willing to put up with $4 for a day or two. But most importantly, natty couldn't possibly have topped at $10, and simultaneously couldn't possibly have bottomed at $1.9 with the way 2023 is playing out. The most sadistic MMs on any asset are the Natty overlords and they're about to get started, I believe.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by LordWrymouth
4
Elliott Waves: Natural Gas case study Overview: Since the significant bottom in June 2020, Natural Gas embarked on a compelling journey, forming a fresh impulse that concluded around the highs of August 2022 as Wave I in the Cycle Degree. The subsequent phase witnessed a corrective move, labeled as Wave II on the weekly timeframe, comprising three subdivisions: ((A)), ((B)), and ((C)). The current focus is on the ongoing Wave ((C)) on the Daily timeframe, expected to unfold in five subdivisions: (1), (2), (3), (4), and (5). Within this framework, Wave (1) to (4) are complete, and attention now turns to the unfolding of Wave (5) on the Four-Hourly timeframe. Current Structure: On the Four-Hourly timeframe, Natural Gas is in the process of forming Wave (5), consisting of Wave 1, 2, and the ongoing development of Wave 3. The details of Wave 3 are further observed on the Hourly timeframe as finished wave ((i)) & ((ii)) and now possibly we are unfolding Wave ((iii)) of 3 of (5) of ((C)) of II. Elliott Wave Principles: Corrective Structure: Wave II is corrective, manifesting as a complex correction with three subdivisions, labeled ((A)), ((B)), and ((C)). Impulse Formation: The primary upward movement from June 2020 to August 2022 represents an impulse, characterized by a sequence of five waves. Subdivision Details: Each wave and subdivision unfolds according to Elliott Wave principles, maintaining the structural integrity of the overall pattern. Learning Points: Analyzing Market Cycles: Elliott Wave Analysis serves as a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of markets, providing insights into the psychology of both buyers and sellers. Trend Anticipation: Corrective waves within the Elliott Wave framework offer a strategic opportunity to foresee potential trends—whether they signify a resumption or reversal of the existing trend. Elliott Wave Analysis is a tool to decipher market cycles, offering insights into the psychological dynamics of buyers and sellers. Corrective waves provide an opportunity to anticipate trend resumption or reversal. The principle of non-overlapping waves helps identify the structure of the market move. Validation and Risk Management: The integrity of this Elliott Wave structure is contingent on Wave II not surpassing the low of Wave I, identified at $1.440. A breach of this level would invalidate the current wave count. I am not Sebi registered analyst. My studies are for educational purpose only. Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing. I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses. Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else. However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business. If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...! Hope this post is helpful to community Thanks RK💕 Disclaimer and Risk Warning. The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
NYMEX:NG1!Education
by RK_Chaarts
20
Natural Gas Clocks Three-Year LowMonthly Support Eyed Recent trading has seen the price of natural gas futures refresh multi-year lows at 1.927 USD/MMBtu. Since November 2023, we have seen natural gas trade lower by nearly -50% and demonstrate scope to reach support at 1.615 USD/MMBtu, a level that boasts historical significance as far back as 1999! Given this, there is room for further downside in this market. Daily Chart Echoes Bearish Vibe Moving across the page to the daily timeframe, you may note that the downside vibe is emphasised in this chart. Not only has the unit ventured south of channel support taken from the low of 2.235 USD/MMBtu, but we’ve also seen support taken out at 1.992 USD/MMBtu (now marked resistance). Support can be found at 1.792 USD/MMBtu, derived from 2020. Usually, a break of support will see traders seek a retest of the breached level as resistance. This has already occurred; if you drill down to the H1 timeframe, you will note that the price has actually retested the level in the shape of an ‘alternate’ AB=CD bearish pattern and has driven lower in a one-sided move. With room seen to continue lower on both monthly and daily charts, further underperformance could be on the way, targeting daily support from 1.792 USD/MMBtu, followed by a test of monthly support at 1.615 USD/MMBtu.
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by FPMarkets
Does Bulls will Take Control in $MCX:NATURALGAS1!Dear Followers, I hope this message finds you well. I wanted to provide you with a brief update on the stock MCX:NATURALGAS1! I have been monitoring. It appears that the stock is approaching a potential Support level Near 615-610 This is an important technical point where the price has historically had difficulty breaking through. It suggests that we may see a temporary halt in the current Downmove momentum and Possibly it will test 230-240 In Upmove. influenced by reduced demand forecasts for the next two weeks and increasing output levels. The market was weighed down by expectations of above-average temperatures until at least February 15, with a return to normal anticipated on February 16-17. The prospect of colder weather later in the month is expected to boost heating demand. However, rising gas production, as wells resume operations after the mid-January Arctic freeze, contributed to the downward pressure on prices. Resistance Levels to Watch out. Resistance levels are the opposite, representing prices at which a stock has historically struggled to move above. These levels can signal a selling interest. Understanding resistance points is crucial for anticipating potential obstacles in the upward movement of a stock. R1= 185 R2= 220 R3= 235 Support Levels To Watchout. Support levels represent prices at which a stock has historically had difficulty falling below. These levels often indicate a strong buying interest. It's important to monitor these levels, as a breach might suggest a potential downward trend. S1= 170 S2= 160 S3= 153 As always, please remember that investing involves risks, and it's important to carefully consider your options. If you have any questions or would like to discuss this further, please don't hesitate to reach out. Best regards,
MCX:NATURALGAS1!Long
by PrachiMetha
14