TFM1! trade ideas
Smart Money's Secret Signal - Commercials Loading Up on NattySmart Money's Secret Signal: Commercial Traders Are Loading Up on Natural Gas
The natural gas market is displaying compelling signals that suggest a potentially significant bullish trend change on the horizon. Through careful analysis of the Commitment of Traders (COT) report and several other key market indicators, we're seeing a convergence of bullish factors that warrant close attention from market participants.
Commercial Positioning at Multi-Year Extremes
Perhaps the most significant indicator is the current positioning of commercial traders, who are now more long than they've been in over three years. Commercial traders, often considered the "smart money" in commodity markets, tend to have the most comprehensive understanding of supply and demand dynamics. Their extreme long positioning is a powerful bullish signal that shouldn't be ignored.
Open Interest Analysis Confirms Bullish Outlook
Recent weeks have shown a notable increase in open interest concurrent with price declines. This relationship between price and open interest becomes particularly meaningful when we examine who's driving the increase of OI. In this case, the increase in open interest is primarily attributed to commercial traders building long positions – a highly bullish indication that suggests strong hands are accumulating positions at current price levels.
Contrarian Indicators Support the Bullish Case
Several contrarian indicators are aligning to support the bullish thesis:
-Investment advisor sentiment is currently very bearish, which historically has been a reliable contrarian indicator.
-Small speculators are showing extreme short positioning, and this group tends to be wrong at market extremes.
-Natural gas is undervalued when compared to historical relationships with gold and U.S. Treasuries.
Technical Confirmation Signals
The technical picture is adding weight to the bullish case:
-The Average Directional Index (ADX) has triggered a buy signal, dropping below 20 while commercials shifted to extreme long positioning.
-A bullish spread divergence has emerged between front-month and second-month contracts, implying immediate commercial demand for the front month, which is bullish.
-A major weekly bullish divergence has recently confirmed, suggesting potential for significantly higher prices.
Market Structure and Timing
While these indicators paint a compelling picture for higher natural gas prices, it's crucial to understand that this analysis doesn't necessarily call for immediate long positioning. Rather, it suggests that the market is fundamentally "setting up" for an upward move. Traders should wait for confirmation through a daily bullish trend change before considering positions.
The Power of COT Analysis in Trading
The Commitment of Traders report remains one of the most powerful yet underutilized tools in market analysis. Understanding how to interpret this data, particularly when combined with other technical and fundamental indicators, can provide traders with a significant edge in the markets. While many traders focus solely on price action or technical indicators, the COT report offers unique insights into the positioning of the market's most informed participants.
Ready to master the art of COT analysis and gain access to professional-grade market insights? Reach out to us today to take your trading to the next level.
Risk Disclaimer
IMPORTANT: The analysis provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or derivative. Trading natural gas futures, options, or any other financial instruments involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. The market analysis presented here represents the opinion of the author based on the data available at the time of writing, but markets are dynamic and can change rapidly.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The indicators and analysis techniques discussed in this article may not work in all market conditions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision. Before trading, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should only trade with money you can afford to lose.
It is strongly recommended that you conduct your own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions. You should also consult with a licensed financial advisor or broker regarding your specific situation. The author and the trading community mentioned may have positions in the securities discussed and may trade in these securities at any time.
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Natural Gas still coiling! breakdown or breakout?Hello Traders
In This Chart NATGAS HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today NATGAS analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (NATGAS market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on NATGAS Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
Natgas looks ready for an extended Bull Run towards 5-6$
A few Points:
- RSI divergence: higher lows on the RSI versus lower lows on weekly candles;
- This weeks' candle was a truncated wedge, very eager Bulls that bought before a lower low was established
- Strong magnet back to Lockdown lows
Natural Gas is Ready For a Commercially Driven Bull MoveNatural gas is nicely setup for longs if we get a confirmed bullish trend change on the daily.
-Extreme commercial long positioning (most long they've been in the last 3 years) - bullish.
-Investment advisor sentiment very bearish - which is actually bullish.
-Undervalued vs gold & treasuries - bullish.
-ADX under 40 while commercials got extremely long - bullish.
-Bullish spread divergence between front month and next month out - bullish.
-Small specs at extreme in short positioning - bullish.
-True seasonal & some cycles are not supportive of going long, but these are the last things I look at. Enough indicators are supporting longs that I'm not going to worry about this.
-Bullish momentum divergence has triggered on some high timeframes, implying much higher prices are on the cards for Natty. There is also some smaller bullish weekly divergence currently setup (but not confirmed).
Have a good week.
NATGAS: Bears Will Push
The charts are full of distraction, disturbance and are a graveyard of fear and greed which shall not cloud our judgement on the current state of affairs in the NATGAS pair price action which suggests a high likelihood of a coming move down.
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Natural Gas Prices Rise By 2%According to Reuters,US Natural Gas Price Climb
2% To 2 Week High On lower Output Soaring Global Gas Prices."
October 25th, 2024.
You can see according to this article above the
Natural gas industry is expecting a bull
market
Not just in the US but around the world.
Now look at the bull-bear balance of power
below the chart of NYMEX:NG1!
I have adjusted it to 2 Days
in order to get a sentiment of the market
within 2 days..
The time for entry is when you see a bearish sentiment
on a weekly trending chart.
So how do you catch a weekly trading chart?
this is where you need to learn about the rocket booster
strategy..
If you want to know :
-weekly trends
-down trends
-up trends
Then you need to master the rocket
boost strategy.
To learn about this strategy checkout
the references below.
Rocket boost this content to learn more.
Disclaimer:trading is risky you
will lose money whether you like it or not
please learn risk management and
profit taking strategies
Natural Gas Is The #1 Commodity To WatchThe week on my end was pretty ruff
someone i know had a funeral, and it was a sad moment.
Even though i thought about how we as people
need to take advantage of every opportunity
That we have access to.
When you look at this chart, you will see
that natural gas found a bottom and started rising.
Do you remember my "Top 13 IronWatchlist"?
On the 2nd Of November am going to review it
Infact its now going to be the "Top 9 Ironwatchlist"
So on the 2nd of November am going to show you
the "Top 9 Iron Watchlist"
and Natural Gas is one of the commodities
on this "Top 9 Ironwatchlist"
The reason I have now refined this watchlist is based on
my goal which is to catch the major market trends of 2025
So save that date.
Now if you look at this chart you will notice the rocket booster
strategy
The rocket booster strategy has 3 steps..
If you would like to learn more about this strategy
check out the references below.
But one thing you should take note of
is that the price in this chart NYMEX:NG1!
Is above the moving averages..
Rocket boost this content to learn more.
Disclaimer: Trading is risky
you will lose money whether you like it or not
Please learn risk managment and profit-taking strategies.
Will the Perfect Storm in Natural Gas Markets Lead to a New EnerIn an era of unprecedented global energy transformation, the natural gas market stands at a critical juncture where geopolitical tensions, technological advancement, and infrastructure development converge to create a potentially game-changing scenario. The ongoing Middle East crisis, particularly the Israel-Iran tensions threatening the Strait of Hormuz, could reshape energy flows and trigger a cascade of effects across interconnected global energy markets, potentially forcing a fundamental reassessment of natural gas's role in the global energy mix.
A seismic shift is approaching in North American markets with LNG Canada's anticipated 2025 launch, which promises to revolutionize Canadian gas pricing dynamics and global market access. This transformation coincides with an extraordinary surge in potential demand from AI and data centers, projected to consume between 3 and 30 billion cubic feet per day of additional North American gas. Such technological evolution, coupled with Asia's growing appetite for cleaner energy sources, suggests a structural reformation of traditional gas flow patterns and pricing mechanisms.
The convergence of these factors presents both challenges and opportunities for market participants. While weather patterns and storage dynamics continue to influence short-term price formation, longer-term strategic considerations are increasingly dominated by infrastructure development, market access, and geopolitical risk management. As the industry adapts through strategic hedging, infrastructure investment, and consolidation, the natural gas market appears poised for a period of dynamic evolution that could fundamentally alter its global value proposition and establish a new paradigm in energy markets.
Are there new lows coming for natural gas prices?Are there new lows coming for natural gas prices?
In my last article on the gas market, I predicted a possible decline in prices starting in October and the possibility that they could reach new annual lows. This is because of the consistently above-average temperatures we are experiencing.
As predicted, the current quarter is showing a sharp drop in gas prices, with a 20 percent drop from the previous quarter.
Analysis of weather models is critical to understanding possible future trends. If numerical forecast models show an increase in heating degree days (HDDs) above normal, this may indicate an increase in gas prices.
Conversely, if HDDs are lower than normal, we may see a decrease in gas prices.
Natural gas production exceeds preferences
Although there are still some trouble spots, the overall situation is not as bad as one might think. Although natural gas production exceeds the preferences of most consumers, there is still quite strong structural demand.
Over the past 5 years, average demand has been about 91 billion cubic feet per day, and net exports have reached an all-time high. In addition, natural gas reserves are expected to increase by only 5 percent in September, the lowest rate in six years.
Looking at the latest production trends and weather forecasts, there is a decrease in the storage surplus. By Sept. 26, the annual storage surplus is expected to shrink by 121 billion cubic feet, and the surplus compared to the five-year average will decrease by 178 during the same period.
The International Energy Agency shared good predictions regarding the future of global electricity demand. According to the World Energy Outlook 2024, demand is expected to double by 2050, which is a faster growth than originally expected. This will be mainly due to the ongoing energy transition in China.
It is important to remember that thermal power plants are still widely used and dependent on natural gas to produce power, so this news is encouraging for natural gas markets.
Electricity demand will continue to grow
According to the International Energy Agency, electricity demand will continue to grow at a high rate, with an increase equivalent to adding a new Japan to the world each year. China will account for most of the new demand, with two-thirds of the total over the past 10 years.
The agency recently revised its forecast upward, predicting 6 percent growth over last year. This is due to the construction of new data centers and the increasing use of air conditioning units, as well as strong expansion in China.
Let us now examine our technical scenario for natural gas. We expect a slight increase in prices followed by new lows around 2.
If you are looking to trade this instrument, it is essential to choose the right one. You can bet on a gas sector stock, an ETF or a futures.
Each instrument has its advantages and disadvantages, so you need to consider carefully before deciding which one to use.
If you would like to be notified whenever I post a new article, just click on “FOLLOW” at the top. Also, if you would like to learn more about a particular topic or need some advice, please comment below the article and I will be happy to help you.
Natural Gas Prices Close @ 7% On Thursday {Read More}Natural gas is used alot in Europe, and the US.
According to an article by Reuters,24th October,2024,
"United States Gas Prices Jump On Colder Temps And
a Rally In European Gas Prices."
What this means is that because of the cold temperatures during
this time of the year in United States,
The Natural Gas consumption has actually increased
Natural Gas is also used as a heating system in
the homes in the United States.
Now I personally am yet to experience
a place that is snowing.I do hope one day
To experience a place that has snow.
What is special about this chart NYMEX:NG1!
This chart follows the rocket booster strategy
This strategy has 3 steps:
#1-The price is above the 50 EMA
#2-The price is above the 200 EMA
#3-The price has to gap up
Look very closely at this chart and you will see
this happening.
Rocket boost this content to learn more
Disclaimer: Trading is risky
you will lose money whether you like it
or not please learn risk management and profit taking strategies.
Nat Gas: Heating Up into the WinterBrief Overview on Natural Gas
Natural Gas is a commodity generally traded on the premise of weather forecasts indicating cooler or warmer seasons. This allows traders to speculate on demand for the product as it generally trades higher with cooler temperatures. Today we are looking at the weekly chart.
Thesis: Technical Analysis Pointing to a Bounce
This analysis is mainly focused on the lasting demand zone that Natural Gas time and time again respects and typically bounces from. The weekly chart points to the likelihood that the R/R is favorable for a long position at these levels in the 2.20's. Not only do we see NG tap back into this heavy demand zone, but we also can see a Cup & Handle on the weekly chart signaling potential greater upside.
Demand Zone offers strong R/R as it dips back in to these levels.
Cup & Handle can represent even further upside, but will rely on the initial rebound to prompt the possibility of it playing out.
There is also a trendline (not pictured) that is supporting the current bounce we are seeing today from the 2.18/2.19 level. It is important to note that the commodity has been seeing higher lows since the Spring.
Lastly, a tap of fundamentals play into this idea as well. Though winter demand is always priced in, this year forecasts have repeatedly painted the picture that this winter will be historically mild. Due to these forecasts implying less seasonal demand for Nat Gas, a shift in the shorter-term and more accurate models as we approach the winter season will sharply move the price of Nat Gas and represents that the current price is truly pricing in a very mild winter. This basis supports the idea of great R/R on this LONG trade idea.
Disclosure
I am currently in a long position in Natural Gas after entering on the Friday (10/18) Close
My position includes: AMEX:UNG Credit Spread 13/12P , AMEX:BOIL common shares
If this thesis holds up, I would plan to roll my credit spread contracts into further expirys
Thanks for reading!
Not Financial Advice
NATGAS RESISTANCE AHEAD|SHORT|
✅NATGAS is going up now
But a strong resistance level is ahead at 2.55$
Thus I am expecting a pullback
And a move down towards the target at 2.40$
SHORT🔥
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GasPair : Natural Gas
Description :
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves
Break of Structure
Consolidation Phase as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame
Order Block
RSI - Divergence
NATGAS Local Risky Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
NATGAS has hit a horizontal
Support level of 2.20$ from
Where we are seeing a bullish
Rebound and we will be
Expecting a further move up
Buy!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
Natural Gas still coiling! breakdown or breakout?Hello Traders
In This Chart NATGAS HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today NATGAS analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (NATGAS market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on NATGAS Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
Natural Gas Oil, Dollar, Silver, Gold Price ForecastNatural Gas stock Bulls PEPPERSTONE:NATGAS Support & Resistance Guide
NATGAS RISKY LONG|
✅NATGAS retested the strong support level of 2.215$
After trading in a local downtrend from some time
Which makes a bullish rebound a likely scenario
With the target being a local resistance above at 2.331$
LONG🚀
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Is gas oversold?This channel is not providing individualized trading or investment advice, nor is it a banking service, brokerage service, trading service, investment service or money management
service.
It is just an educated guess.
NATURAL GAS on a Bearish Leg. Still a sell signal.Natural Gas (NG1!) gave us an excellent buy opportunity last time (August 29, see chart below) and easily hit our 2.900 Target:
Once it hit the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level (blue) it formed a Lower High at the top of the Triangle pattern and got rejected. The previous Lower High rejection that started the Bearish Leg, bottomed on the Higher Lows trend-line of the Triangle on the 0.786 Fib (black trend-line).
As a result we remain bearish on NG, targeting 2.145 (0.786 Fib).
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