Cryptographic Truth Part 2 (Chainlink)Part 1
The bar pattern continues to play out like clockwork, but for how long? There comes a time when every bar pattern decouples and fails to mirror. One of the most amazing bar patterns I followed was in 2022, where a distribution bear market fractal from 2018 started forming at all-time highs for Bitcoin.
For the next 218 days, this bar pattern mirrored 2018. It was mind-blowing, also the easiest trading year by far. The TA below was published at the start of 2022, so we knew how the whole year would play out with incredible accuracy.
The key to finding out where the top will be is within Bitcoin; almost every big move Chainlink has made last cycle has been followed by a large Bitcoin move as well.
So if we go back to the very first time Chainlink broke a massive range, we can see Bitcoin had a massive move up in 2019.
This right here is the only move where Chainlink moved up without Bitcoin, and it only managed half its impulse wave before Bitcoin moved up.
It's the only time in history so far.
The next and last range break was again followed by a Bitcoin move, and the final push to Chainlink's all-time high to blow off top was followed by Bitcoin moves.
So once the range breaks, Chainlink has a very distinct pattern, as you can see in the chart below; it's always the same:
One impulse up
One Pullback
One impulse up
That's it; then the move is over. It happens very quickly. You can see there the two times it's happened outside of a bull market. It took 40-50 days. 2021 took double, most likely because we were in a bull market. We are definitely not in a bull market, so expect the move to last around 50 days.
Let's take a look at what happened in the Bull market. Chainlink already made a run from 10 dollars up to 53 dollars; we are at 10 dollars right now.
2021
Bitcoin - 23,500
Chainlink - 10 dollars
2023
Bitcoin - $30,600
Chainlink - 10 dollars
The difference is massive from 2021 to 2023, but regardless, both assets ended up hitting the golden pocket at the same time in 52 days! Amazing stuff really; both are much more in sync than I ever expected!
So if we take the bar pattern (BTC) of the cycle low in 2015 and overlay it on today's price action, we get the following.
Pretty close mirror, especially the first cycle bottom in June 2022. So if we look at what fib level that was in 2015, we can see Bitcoin topped out just under the golden pocket.
Now, if we go back to the comparison chart of BTC and LINK, we can see that if Bitcoin did, in fact, top out under the golden pocket, that would then put LINK at $25.
So if we take a look at the macro and range Fib retracements, we can see that the 4.236 range retracement for LINK comes in at $25.
Everything you've seen in this TA is how I arrived at the most probable outcome for Chainlink this year for . This TA can change very quickly depending on what level Bitcoin is at, so it's basically near impossible to predict where it will top. As new data comes in, we will change targets, so don't take this to the bank. One thing is for sure, the bar pattern will guide the way.
The main thing we need to focus on here is the first pullback in this zigzag fractal. Where it pulls back will give us a massive clue on where it tops.
Now I want to finish off by adding a crazy outcome for LINK. This has a low chance of playing out, in my opinion, but anything is possible. So instead of LINK topping out at $200 in October 2025, it tops out at $750. This would basically be a mirror move from 2019 in terms of fib levels. Highly unlikely, heck if we made a 100% retracement by mid-November, it would be possible.
