0S23 trade ideas
Option Play: EPDStock is setting up nicely to re-test June highs after the Covid crash. Above 18.9 and we should see 20+. Daily chart shows price has driven through the red clouds and is beginning to build green cloud support on the right as price rises. Weekly will suck the price up through this red cloud - But be careful resistance will be near the top as they try to create chop. Find the best exit point and leave a runner or two. Sitting in 19c for 11/20 and 20c for 11/27. Good luck if you play!!
EPD Swing Trade
Since the low around $12 on Mar 18th price has been trading a well defined upward channel.
The bottom of the channel is formed by the 20dMA since Apr 20th.
Price has bounced off the 20dMA (bottom of the channel) 7 times and never closed below it since Apr 20th. Clearly this 20dMA is offering stellar price support.
The 20dMA crossed the 50dMA on May 8th. A bullish signal.
Price is currently between 2 Fib lines: $17.65 & $19.38.
The 20dMA just crossed the $17.65 Fib line.
Vertical long call spread Next Ex-date is 4/29 paying $0.445 on 5/12
Long 100 shares ~$1,700
Long 18 call Jan_21_2022 exp
Short call each month until Jan_21_2022
Long stock gives 7 dividends (Assuming consistency)
Long call gives leveraged appreciation as well as coverage in case short call is exercised
BreakoutEPD has broken out of 3 year ascending triangle.
-increased div for 19 consecutive years
-even though EPD has recovered 28% since December lows, from a technical aspect there is a fair chance the uptrend will continue.
The SP is fairly valued using YDT and slightly above fair value using DCF, but because it is a high dividend paying stock its not the best valuation method.
The current PE is 33% lower than its 5 year PE and 28% lower than industry suggesting it may be undervalued.
- Still a 4 star stock of M* and just a couple $ over the 5* price.
Any decent pullback should be viewed as a buying opportunity
EPDHi members!
The SMF strategy forecast indicates a setup on the following pairing;
Stock : EPD, NTREPRISE PRODS PARTNERS L P
Sector : Energy
Insdustry : Oil & Gas Transportation Services
Term : Long
Rick : High
Exchange : Cboe BZX
SMF strategy would be to Buy :
Between : $29.5 - $30.5
SMF strategy would be to Sell at :
Long term:
Target 1 : $33 (10% Profit)
Target 2 : $34.5 (15% Profit)
Target 3 : $40 (33% Profit)
SMF strategy would be to set a stop loss at :
Stop Loss: $28.5
Trader Comments on the forcasted setup:
EMA and MA 200 act like support. The 100 follow behind to give momentum to continue the run after he breaking the resistance $30. Now the $30 mark will act like support.
The ADX and DI indicator is bullish.
$EPD Ascending Triangle Breakout - Bullish Options Activity$EPD Closed above $27.75 recent resistance line appearing to break out from a bullish ascending triangle formation on the daily chart. Expecting further upside from here, targeting $30 level by March. Note: ER later this week.
Adding to the positive sentiment, we saw some bullish options activity today with about 3k $20.00 strike (deep ITM) Jan 2020 call options traded today vs OI of only 702. With the stock closing today just below $28.00, these contracts going for about $8.00/share with 12 months to expiration are 1.00 delta with essentially no time value - meaning projected volatility is currently very low.
Zooming out on the weekly chart, you can see the stock has been locked in a tight trading range between $24 and $30 for the last 3+ years, so the likelihood of breaking through the $30 level is fairly low, barring some positive fundamental changes/news items.
Note: Informational analysis, not investment advice.