AUS200 Dn.AUS200 Dn.
Divergence. Price squeeze.
Change in volume.
High confluence area.
4x move possible.
AUS200 trade ideas
ASX to continue in the upward move?ASX200 - 24h expiry
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
Although we remain bullish overall, a correction is possible with plenty of room to move lower without impacting the trend higher.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 7650 will confirm the bullish momentum. The measured move target is 7725.
We look to Buy at 7610 (stop at 7570)
Our profit targets will be 7710 and 7735
Resistance: 7650 / 7700 / 7725
Support: 7625 / 7600 / 7575
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
EURUSD - NZDUSD - AUS200 Trade RecapThree positions taken last week, two breakevens and one loss. Great trades nonetheless, two structures I would take over and over again with the EURUSD position being on the higher risk side of things. Risk management plan stuck to, frequency is picking up just in the first month of the year as expected. Trade safe and responsible
The RBA to join the rate cut party in May?Aus Q4 CPI came in at 4.1% yoy, with the trimmed mean measure at 4.2% yoy – both were nicely below the economist's median forecast, and importantly below the RBA’s own forecasts of 4.5% for both metrics.
We also saw the more timely monthly (December) CPI print coming in at 3.4%; a 90bp improvement – and just 40bp away from the 2-3% target band.
Next week’s RBA meeting looms large, and the tone of the statement should reflect a bank seeing inflation moving towards target, yet they will make it clear this is no time for victory laps and more needs to be done.
The RBA will be enthused by the fact core inflation is below the RBA’s cash rate – subsequently, we have a positive real cash rate for the first time since 2016 - this is a small but welcomed victory for Bullock and co.
With both core and headline CPI nicely below the November Statement on Monetary Policy forecasts, we question the possibility of tweaks to their projections for June and December 2024 CPI. These currently sit at 4% by June and 3.5% by December, so any revisions to these estimates could result in some solid movement in interest rate futures and by extension the AUD and AUS200.
Aussie economic data has generally come in below market consensus expectations of late, so the pricing of expected RBA policy – through interest rate futures - has been part-validated in today’s CPI print. Looking at Aussie interest rate futures, the market prices no chance of a 25bp cut in either the February or March RBA meeting, and if anything, the RBA statements at these meetings need to lay the groundwork for cuts – although the tone of the guidance will be data-dependent.
While much of the disinflation has been driven by tradables, a 25bp cut in May is a real possibility and the market prices this at 50% - so essentially a coin toss. We see two 25bp cuts priced by year-end.
Eyes on Gov Bullock
Gov Bullock speaks next Friday (09:30 AEDT) and while she speaks after the RBA meeting statement and SoMP (both on Tuesday 14:30 AEDT) her testimony will be scrutinized and will move interest rate pricing, and by extension the AUD. I think we’ll have a fair idea of the timeline for potential policy easing from here.
Gov Bullock has a straightforward job – time rate cuts perfectly. Obviously, that’s easy to say but tough to do in principle but if we focus on the capital markets, we see little risk of an implied policy mistake and we see the ASX200 at all-time highs, with bank equity and consumer-sensitive stocks in rude health. AUD 1-month implied volatility resides at 12-month lows, while the Aussie housing market shows few concerns.
I guess this is an issue with setting policy on quarterly core inflation -it is a slow-moving beast and clearly a lagging indicator the fact it is still 120bp from target feels like a hawkish Bullock may keep the peddle to the metal for now. The market will put more weight on the monthly CPI reads.
I also consider the frequency of central bank speeches, and this is where the RBA, the ECB and the Fed differ in a big way – In Australia, we simply don’t have the plethora of central bankers that speak almost every day, and it's often a long time between drinks for the RBA speeches. This is quite refreshing, but in times like this it can be useful to know how each member stands, giving almost real-time commentary on policy.
Anyhow, the markets speak out – the door is ajar for a cut in May but easing will be gradual relative to the Fed, ECB, and other G10 CBs. We also see the floor in the RBA cash rate priced at 3.5%, so loosely four 25bp cuts are priced to a ‘terminal’ level.
The RBA won't try and keep pace with the Fed, they will work on their own merit and focus on their set of economics – either way, the trajectory for CPI suggests we will join the rate cut party and a ‘soft landing’ seems to be the more probable outcome, at least judging by the message from the markets.
AUS200 – 7632.8 in our sightsWhile the AUS200 revisits the all-time highs set in Aug 2021, the index absorbs a positive mix of sentiment towards global risk, as well as local factors, and many question if this time around we see the illustrious bullish break the bulls are positioned for. While global macro issues remain paramount, one catalyst to look towards is ASX200 1H24 earnings, with Amcor kicking the season into gear (6 Feb) and JBH (due 12 Feb) one that CFD traders will be keen to focus on. CSL (13 Feb) and CBA (14 Feb) report shortly after and both could influence sentiment with their outlooks. The Aussie banks are driving the market from an index points perspective, with materials also finding form. Importantly, we see the ASX200 bank index is flying high at present and until we see the bullish tape in the banks give way, index volatility will remain subdued, and traders will be skewed to buy weakness in the Aussie equity index.
bear flag break downnext level of support is 7100
expect more selling in XJO.
everyone doesnt want to be like Argentina.
time to stabilize your currency and end this game
of asset inflation to give the wealth illusion.
game over man.
buy some short term BBOZ for a trade.
Is the ASX 200 about to roll over?Looking at the weekly chart, bulls may have something to worry about. The market is yet to even test 7500 let alone break above it, and each time it has tried (and failed) to do so, the ASX has fallen by double digits in percentage terms.
A bearish engulfing candle formed in the first week of the year after once again faltering at those cycle highs. And if we're to see even just a 10% drop from the 2024 high it could, the index will find itself back beneath 7000. But if bears really get their way for another -16% drop, the ASX will be back around 6400.
What could make that happen? Well, markets have been aggressively pricing in 5 - 7 Fed cuts this year which may not arrive. And if the wheels fall off the global economy to justify said cuts, that could also be bad for the stock market. So bulls may want to ask themselves if they want to be along at these levels, where the market is yet to every trade above it. As we could be in for a deeper pullback at the very least.
China Property Stimulus to Boost Aus200 IndexThe recent announcement of a stimulus package by the Chinese government to boost the property sector is expected to have a positive impact on the Australian stock market, particularly the Aus200 index. The stimulus package includes measures such as lower down payments for home purchases and tax breaks for developers. These measures are expected to increase demand for property in China, which will in turn benefit Australian companies that export goods and services to the Chinese market.
In addition, the stimulus package is also expected to boost the Chinese economy, which is Australia's largest trading partner. A stronger Chinese economy will mean more demand for Australian goods and services, which will support corporate profits and earnings growth. As a result, the Aus200 index is expected to rise in the coming months.
Of course, there are also some risks associated with the China property stimulus. If the stimulus is too successful, it could lead to an overheating of the Chinese economy and a resurgence of inflation. This would be negative for Australian companies that export to China, as it would make their goods and services less competitive. However, at this stage, it appears that the risks are outweighed by the potential rewards.
Overall, the China property stimulus is a positive development for the Australian stock market. The stimulus is expected to boost demand for Australian goods and services, support corporate profits and earnings growth, and lift the Aus200 index.
ASX to continue in the upward move?AU200AUD - 24h expiry
Buying pressure from 7494 resulted in prices rejecting the dip.
We are trading at oversold extremes.
This is positive for short term sentiment and we look to set longs at good risk/reward levels for a further correction higher.
We look for a temporary move lower.
Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 7510 level.
We look to Buy at 7510 (stop at 7478)
Our profit targets will be 7590 and 7715
Resistance: 7715 / 7825 / 7985
Support: 7340 / 7210 / 7120
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
ASX200 forming a bullish flagThe ASX200 is in the process of creating a bullish flag on the 1-hour chart following a downward movement. Additionally, a bullish divergence is taking shape, providing confirmation of a reversal from the preceding downtrend. I am initiating an immediate purchase at the current price, anticipating that the price will reach the target outlined by the flag's pole.
ASX priced in real currencyWhen pricing the ASX200
in Gold instead of paper AUD.
you can see the XJO hasnt gone higher
but stay within a trading range.
its important to measure things with the right
measurement and not to measure
things in something as unstable as paper money.
$ASX200 once again unable to break through resistance level#ASX200 has tried numerous times to break and hold above the $7,500-7,600 level, with no success.
This resistance zone has shown to be resilient, but these levels tend to eventually be broken.
Will be watching key economic data over the coming weeks to see if there is anything strong enough to send price through this level.
expect a pullbackWars are inflationary. so expect interest
rates to keep rising in 2024 (even tho they are negative
in real terms)
higher rates means lower share prices.
lets see how the central planners react to the war
and the goal is always to inflate asset prices but the problem
now is the inflation can not be hidden by cheap asian
labour anymore.
The rise of Asia means there is now a
wealthy middle class who are no longer willing to slave
away making cheap throw away goods for the regime.
buy more BBOZ....
ASX to find buyers at market?ASX200 - 24h expiry
We are trading at overbought extremes.
A Doji style candle has been posted from the base.
Our overall sentiment remains bullish looking for higher levels.
This is positive for sentiment and the uptrend has potential to return.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
We look to Buy at 7578 (stop at 7528)
Our profit targets will be 7698 and 7720
Resistance: 7715 / 7825 / 7985
Support: 7505 / 7340 / 7210
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
AU200 3:1 R2R Sell SetupFirst thing to note is that we have a bearish breakout below the ascending trendline on the 1hour timeframe. Additional RSI is suggesting selling pressure with the bearish divergence.
== Game Plan ==
Wait for a pullback as outlined on the chart to enter a sell targeting a 3:1 risk to reward.
AUS200 Dn.AUS200 Dn.
Double Top.
With two sharp spikes.
Divergence.
Squueze offers a good stop.
Lets hope for a 5x + move.
200AUD (Index) LongsMost major markets have been breaking All-Time-Highs.
Momentum is still strongly bullish.
Currently in a Bullish Outbreak, occurring after two same-sized retracements (represented by congruent grey rectangles).
No indication of reversal, expecting price to continue hitting new highs.
Preparing for Long positions after appropriate candlestick close.
Keep an eye out for signs of bearish reversal.
Invalidation point placed before the opening gap (red dashed line).
Aggressively add to position if in profit, once price has found support.
Avoid adding to position if negative.
XJO ASX 200 potential breakout (long) or reversal (Short)ASX:XJO
A potential breakout of ATH could provide a good long trade. A rejection could see a high probability short trade.
XJO - 28 months HEAD & SHOULDERS══════════════════════════════
Since 2014, my markets approach is to spot
trading opportunities based solely on the
development of
CLASSICAL CHART PATTERNS
🤝Let’s learn and grow together 🤝
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Hello Traders ✌
After a careful consideration I came to the conclusion that:
- it is crucial to be quick in alerting you with all the opportunities I spot and often I don't post a good pattern because I don't have the opportunity to write down a proper didactical comment;
- since my parameters to identify a Classical Pattern and its scenario are very well defined, many of my comments were and would be redundant;
- the information that I think is important is very simple and can easily be understood just by looking at charts;
For these reasons and hoping to give you a better help, I decided to write comments only when something very specific or interesting shows up, otherwise all the information is shown on the chart.
Thank you all for your support
🔎🔎🔎 ALWAYS REMEMBER
"A pattern IS NOT a Pattern until the breakout is completed. Before that moment it is just a bunch of colorful candlesticks on a chart of your watchlist"
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⚠ DISCLAIMER ⚠
The content is The Art Of Charting's personal opinion and it is posted purely for educational purpose and therefore it must not be taken as a direct or indirect investing recommendations or advices. Any action taken upon these information is at your own risk.
AU200 ~ Commodities or Follow US Markets? ASX Wants Both! (2H)CAPITALCOM:AU200 chart mapping/analysis.
ASX grinding higher into EOY, benefitting from relative strength in global commodities & precious metals.
Trading scenarios into EOY:
Continued commodity strength + US bullish momentum = rally into 23.6% Fib / ascending trend-line (light blue dotted) confluence zone.
Rally would coincide with re-test of bearish breakdown from pennant pattern.
Commodity weakness + US market capitulation = re-test of 38.2% Fib, into horizontal line (yellow dashed) / 200SMA / lower range of ascending parallel channel (green dashed) uber confluence zone.
