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🌽Corn NEEDS New Demand (GrainStats)Fundamental Data👇 🌽Corn Marketing Year Progress (23/24) ▓▓▓░░░░░░░░░░░░ 19.81% Corn Harvest Progress 🚜➡️🌱 ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░ 81% Export Inspections 🚢➡️🌎 535,191 Metric Tons ⬇️ 5,594 Metric Tons week vs. last week ⬆️ 89,498 Metric Tons this week vs. last week ⬇️ 160,191 Metric Tons this week vs. 5-Year Average This Week Export Sales🗺️🫰 19,290,763 Metric Tons (Cumulative, Current Marketing Year) ⬆️ 4,823,345 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year Price Sentiment (Community Polling)📊 Bullish 🟩🟩🟩⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 26% Neutral 🟫🟫🟫🟫⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 33% Bearish 🟥🟥🟥🟥⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 37% Noteworthy News / Trends 🆕 🔴 USDA Raised estimated yields of the 2023 crop by 1.9 bushels/acre resulting in the *largest ever crop* to be produced in the United States (15.234 Billion Bushels) 🔴 No notable *new and increasing* demand on balance sheet that isn’t expected to be exports 🔴 Russia and Ukraine Corn production increased by 2.9 million metric tons (Ukraine carryout increased by 1 million metric tons) 🔴 Drought is receding in the US, but several pockets remain (more important for 2024) 🔴 Managed money continues to increase their net short in Corn futures contracts in the US & Europe (MATIF Corn) 🔴 Panama Canal congestion continues to plague logistics increasing freight costs to navigate through the Panama Canal (most of US Corn is exported through the US Gulf and pending destination, may need to use the Panama Canal to get to market) 🟢 Mexico continues to purchase Corn in increasing amounts ( Fastest pace in over +5 years ) 🟢 China has been active in the Sorghum market with the best export sales pace in +3 years ( what if they want to purchase US Corn next? ) 🟢 US Barge freight has gone down 6 weeks in a row from 1,326% of tariff to 467% of tariff (supportive of basis, all else equal) Fund Net Position💰 Chicago Corn: -144,432 Contracts (Position as of 10/31) MATIF Corn: -6,095 Contracts ( Record short. Position as of 11/10) Corn Commentary 💌 Corn continues to find its way chopping through a bear market backed by record US Corn Production . Unfortunately, domestic demand has not been able to keep up with increasing production potential (yield) due to limiting factors: the ethanol blend wall ⛽ and stagnant feed and residual demand 🐂 So where does all the corn need to go? Export Markets 🌍 How do you incentivize exports? Being the most competitive offer (Low Prices) 🌽⬇️ So, if you’re wondering why prices are trending lower, it’s largely because of a supply/demand imbalance and Corn needs to be priced to incentivize *new* demand through the export markets. What better a place to do it than the Corn futures contract which directly ties into the export markets with its river facilities that flow into the US Gulf export market 💡 Until the market finds that point where demand shifts back to the US market OR production problems arise elsewhere in the world, Corn prices may continue in their downtrend. Technicals 💹 We recommend to start paying attention to what Corn does if it breaks the summer low of 4.61 as the mainstream news outlets will trigger a wave of news about the corn market being the lowest since 2020 ⚠️ Watch the following levels for now👇 🟢 Current Upside Target: 4.76, 4.80 🔴 Current Downside Targets: 4.61, 4.42 Investment Risk Disclaimer⚠️ This information is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment, financial, legal, tax or accounting advice. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or advice of our firm. Futures, options, and over-the-counter derivatives involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for you. The information contained herein does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual users. Before making any investment decision, you should perform due diligence and consider seeking advice from an independent financial or investment advisor. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. We do not guarantee any outcomes regarding your use of the information provided.
CBOT:ZCZ2023
by GrainStats
3
🌽 Testing Support (GrainStats)Latest Fundamental Data👇 Corn Harvest Progress 🚜➡️🌽 ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░ 81% Export Inspections 🚢➡️🌎 535,191 Metric Tons ⬇️ 5,594 Metric Tons week vs. last week ⬆️ 89,498 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year ⬇️ 160,191 Metric Tons this week vs. 5-year average Corn Technicals 💹 We will keep this post short and sweet, but after today's close (November 7th), there is downside risk forming at the previously established support of 4.675. A break below this level AND settlement could lead us to test the next support range of 4.6325 - 4.615, which would be the lowest prices of Corn since this past summer (when looking at the continuous contract). Watch the following levels for now👇 🟢 Current Upside Target: 4.85, 4.90 🔴 Current Downside Targets: 4.6325 - 4.615 Investment Risk Disclaimer⚠️ This information is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment, financial, legal, tax or accounting advice. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or advice of our firm. Futures, options, and over-the-counter derivatives involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for you. The information contained herein does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual users. Before making any investment decision, you should perform due diligence and consider seeking advice from an independent financial or investment advisor. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. We do not guarantee any outcomes regarding your use of the information provided. just now Comment: Caution is advised as the market has successfully retraced back to support.
CBOT:ZCZ2023
by GrainStats
🌽 Corn Technical Analysis (GrainStats) Fundamental Data👇 Corn Harvest Progress 🚜➡️🌽 ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░░░ 71% Export Inspections 🚢➡️🌎 531,516 Metric Tons ⬆️ 82,255 Metric Tons week vs. last week ⬆️ 58,922 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year ⬇️ 53,968 Metric Tons this week vs. 5-year average Export Sales🗺️ 18,275,443 Metric Tons (Cumulative, Current Marketing Year) ⬆️ 4,180,245 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year Price Sentiment (Community Polling)📊 Bullish 🟩🟩🟩⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 28% Neutral 🟫🟫🟫🟫🟫⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 44% Bearish 🟥🟥🟥⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 25% Noteworthy News / Trends 🆕 🟢 US River levels have improved on the Mississippi river (barge freight down 4 weeks in a row) 🟢 Mexico continues to purchase US Corn at a rapid pace. 🔴 The US still has a +2 billion bushel carryout 🔴 Wetter forecast for Argentina Funds 💰 Funds added to their net short position over 44 thousand contracts, raising their total net short position to over 144 thousand contracts , the highest in years, seasonally adjusted. Corn Technicals 💹 Corn successfully put a double bottom into December Corn futures. This was achieved early Friday morning and then bounced higher erasing two days worth of losses. 🟢 We believe that the near term bottom is in the market, but there are also less than 20 days left before first notice day so we don't expect many fireworks to the upside. Instead the trade should focus on farmers finishing up the 2023 harvest in the next few weeks and the commercial entities rolling their December futures to the March contract. Overall we think there is a a rangebound trade at hand with well established support at the bottom (4.675) and a over arching down trend in price that has been established since late summer. We'll need a new theme to break out in either direction (Bull = Production problems in Argentina/Brazil or Bear = Russia-Ukraine peace deal) Watch the following levels for now👇 🟢 Current Upside Target: 4.85, 4.90 🔴 Current Downside Target: 4.675 Investment Risk Disclaimer⚠️ This information is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment, financial, legal, tax or accounting advice. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or advice of our firm. Futures, options, and over-the-counter derivatives involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for you. The information contained herein does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual users. Before making any investment decision, you should perform due diligence and consider seeking advice from an independent financial or investment advisor. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. We do not guarantee any outcomes regarding your use of the information provided.
CBOT:ZCZ2023
by GrainStats
10 Year Corn Projection (potentially)10yr Corn outlook: 1 thought (of many) on the potential course of the corn market for the next 10 years. I feel the job of the current market is to find a price high enough to ration future demand. Could be current price, 8.50, or 9.50. The potential is there for any of those numbers to mark a major swing high for Corn. The higher that mark is nearby, the more corn begins to ration future demand. The low found after a major high is made, could mark an area for the future multi year market structure. The market should remain very sensitive for another few years. Sensitive to world demand and production misses across the globe. There are many climate cycles coming ahead that could add to potential Ag production shortages. **Not a prediction, something to watch** At some point we return to a tighter, more defined market structure working low prices against the long term uptrend line… 4.50-5.25 ???
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
4
🌽 Corn Technical Analysis (GrainStats)Corn Fundamentals ( CBOT:ZCZ2023 ) Corn Harvest Progress 🚜➡️🌽 ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░░░░ 59% Export Inspections 🚢➡️🌎 437,549 Metric Tons ⬇️ 29,055 Metric Tons week vs. last week ⬇️ 22,514 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year ⬇️ 370,24 Metric Tons this week vs. 5-year average Export Sales 16,176,285 Metric Tons (Cumulative, Current Marketing Year) ⬆️ 2,753,396 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year Noteworthy News / Themes 🟢 Argentina is behind pace on Corn planting (12% complete) 🟢 US River levels have improved on the Mississippi river (barge freight down) 🟢 Mexico purchased 117,200 metric tons in a flash sales news announcement 🔴 The US still has a +2 billion bushel carryout 🔴 Corn failed to stay above $5.00 futures 🟢 Dry forecast in Argentina 🔴 Wet forecast in Brazil Corn Technicals Corn couldn't settle above $5.00 for too long given the ample expected carryout being priced into the market in the middle of harvest. Consider the sales that were sold above $5.00 as a gift to the farmers and we hope farmers prices some bushels. Outside of this, there really isn't much to say anymore about this market except that after 3 years of a bull market, we're finally getting back to reality and reality in the grain market is quiet. Watch the following levels for now👇 🟢 Current Upside Target: 5.00 🔴 Current Downside Targets: 4.74, 4.675
CBOT:ZCZ2023
by GrainStats
Is Corn Ready To Pop?Last week, we were looking for a potential bottom in corn. Since then, we’ve mostly traded sideways to slightly higher. However, the end of this week brings a “triple-witching” event - the end of the month, the end of the fiscal quarter, and the quarterly grain stocks report all occur on Friday. In last quarter’s grain stocks report, the market sold off fairly sharply as corn stocks were reportedly 54% higher on a year-over-year basis. The contract’s resilience in defending the lows is very encouraging considering the positioning of managed funds. In the chart below, you can see that managed funds have amassed a substantial short position over the course of the last 6 weeks. As of last Friday’s CFTC Commitments of Traders report, managed funds held 319,079 short positions. Meanwhile, prices have maintained a very tight 15-20 cent trading range. As such, there is significant fund rebalancing in Friday’s session, it may induce a short-covering rally. What does that mean? In order to exit a short position, the contract holder will have to buy a contract. If there is substantial buying volume, it will press prices higher, and force short-positions to exit ultimately resulting in a rally. The question then becomes - how high can we go? Considering that the December corn contract was unable to close above 500 a single time in the month of August or September thus far, that may be an ambitious initial target. In order to retest 500, and ultimately our 502-506 ½ 3-star resistance pocket, we will have to surpass 3-star resistance between 489 and 491. If we manage to trade through 491, it could lay the foundation for December corn to surpass 500 once again. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZC1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
Close to A Bottom in December Corn? After scoring a new contract low early in Tuesday’s trade, December corn futures managed to stage a late-session rally to close in positive territory. Moreover, the contract managed to close above trendline resistance that’s been in place dating back to June 20th. Price action on Wednesday served as a continuation of the late-session strength, with the contract closing 6 cents higher to close at 482 ¼ - marking a second consecutive close above trendline resistance. Prices have clung to the trendline very tightly over the last 8 trading sessions, and the previous two sessions are the first instances of prices closing above trendline resistance. So the question now becomes, are we close to a bottom in the December corn contract? Looking at price history and seasonal tendencies, we can see that the December corn contract typically bottoms out between the final week of September and into the first couple of weeks of October, before ultimately staging a moderate rally in late October. www.seasonalgo.com If we are indeed attempting to put in an intermediate bottom, we can expect a support/resistance flip. Meaning, that previous trendline resistance should now act as trendline support. In other words, if prices falter in the coming days, and test the trendline, we should likely see bulls come to defend the trendline. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCZ2023
by Blue_Line_Futures
1
Corn price will increaseThe recent information that could make corn prices increase in the near future include: The war in Ukraine: The war in Ukraine has disrupted global grain exports, including corn. Ukraine is a major exporter of corn, and the war has prevented it from exporting its grain. This has led to a shortage of corn on the global market, which has pushed up prices. The drought in the US Midwest: The US Midwest is a major corn-producing region, and the drought in this region is affecting corn yields. The drought has made it difficult for farmers to grow corn, and this has led to lower production. Lower production means higher prices. The high cost of fertilizer: The cost of fertilizer has been rising in recent months, and this is making it more expensive to grow corn. Fertilizer is used to help corn plants grow, and the higher cost of fertilizer is making it more difficult for farmers to make a profit. This could lead to lower production and higher prices. The strong demand for corn from ethanol producers: Ethanol is a biofuel that is made from corn. The demand for ethanol has been increasing in recent years, and this is putting upward pressure on corn prices. Ethanol producers use corn to make ethanol, and the higher demand for ethanol is leading to higher demand for corn. The weaker US dollar: The US dollar has been weakening in recent months, and this is making corn exports more attractive to buyers from other countries. When the US dollar is weak, it means that foreign currencies are stronger. This makes corn exports more affordable for buyers from other countries, which can lead to higher prices. Entry : (476.4681, 473.09963039757986) SL : 472.4437 TP1 : 485.6414 TP2 : 487.8568 TP3 : 490.4948
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by neurotrader95
Is Corn Price on the Edge of a 25% Drop?In this idea, I am trying to read and forecast the behavior of the chart in the next 4.5 months . I do not follow corn production, harvest, demand, etc. Since April 2022 (its 9-year highs) has lost about 40% . Its relatively long-going bearish trend means that most of the drop likely has happened. Let's quickly study previous drops that lasted more than a year and erased more than 40% of the corn price. The last one started 11 years ago. It happened during world economic growth. The price lost more than 61% for 26 months of the trend. Another drop occurred during the GFC and lasted for 24 months. Corn lost 60.5% of its price. Important to note that the price reached its lowest point in December 2008 (in the sixth month after the drop started), then the price fluctuated and reached about the same level in September 2009. Considering the crisis and its trend low reached in 6 months, it is not the perfect example to compare with the current 2022-2023 corn price trend. Let's continue to delve into the past! 44% tumble was printed between April 2004 and November 2005, i.e. 19 months . Sending back 17 years ago, we can see a 64.4 % drop in 25 months . Here we are in 1983, the era of high dollar inflation (and not only). The Fed chair Volcker Jr. is fighting with inflation ECONOMICS:USIRYY , and America is recovering from its 1979-1982 recession. The world economy is starting to recover from recession/slowdown too. Between late August 1983 and February 1987 ( 43 months ), corn prices fell by 61.9% . These data series are not enough to firmly generalize bearish trends . Besides, price movements in the past do not determine possible future patterns. We can gently conclude that a bearish trend in corn prices that lasts more than a year could last between 19 and 43 months and show a drop between 40 and 64.4%. In view of those facts and the performance of the corn daily prices in the last 1.5 months, I forecast several scenarios. In the first one, I expect that the price would break the 469-470 support zone and come to 400 cents per bushel until the end of September . Then I expect some correction lasting 3-5 weeks. And the realization of scenario #1.5 (continuation of scenario #1), we could see a breakout of 400 cents and move to 345 cents per bushel before the end of the year . That would be the low or almost the low of the current long-term bearish trend for maze price. Combined scenarios #1 and #1.5 would mean minus 25% from the current price and a drop of 57.5% since April 2022. There are two alternatives . In scenario #2 after reaching 400 cents, the price would return to 470 cents . In scenario #3 the current support zone would be a minimum of the trend for the next 4.5 months.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Nikita_Kalinin
A Counter Trend Trade Opportunity Fundamental News Lack of demand has been a widely reported story which has acted as a major headwind for prices over the last month. This morning’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 233,500 MT (9,192,486 bushels) for 2022/2023 were up 55 percent from the previous week and 16 percent from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 704,700 MT (27,742,805 bushels) for 2023/2024. Both were within expectations (better than below expectations). With a plethora of bearish headlines thrown at the market for nearly a month straight, from improving crop conditions, to dismal demand, the bearish headlines may be turning stale. Historical Tendencies Looking at historical patterns, specifically the 5-year average for this time of year, we’ve seen the market consolidate and attempt to consolidate through the back half of August and into September. Technicals (December) December corn futures managed to reclaim some ground yesterday, trading 6 cents higher at the close. As mentioned in yesterday's 2-Minute Drill, we believe that the Bulls need to see consecutive closes back above 480-482 (previous support) to help encourage a bigger relief rally with the next objective being closer to the psychologically and technically significant $5.00 level. CVOL CME Group's corn CVOL index is back to the levels we were at in May. We are at the point in the season where we still don’t know what the corn yield is, but we also know what it isn’t. Getting through the pivotal crop development time frame narrows down the range of yield estimates, helping to bring uncertainty and volatility down, which can lower option premiums. Summary: The bottom is a process, not necessarily a point. We believe that the process may be under way, at least for a short-term relief rally. With bearish headlines growing tired and seasonal patterns coming into play, we could start to see the market consolidate and try to carve out a near term low. The Bulls have their work cutout for them on the chart, and that starts with consecutive closes above 4.80-482. With Volatility well off the recent highs, options may be a good way to gain long exposure for what would be a counter trend trade. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCZ2023Long
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Corn futures price chiseling could head lower Yield reports from August USDA’s reports dropped the fresh crop corn yield by 2.4 bushels/acre to 175.1. Since there were no new acreages it also set the potential output to 15.111 B bushels. Worldwide the old crop puts the Brazilian output at 135 MMT increase of +2 MMT. Brazil's CONAB raised their corn production forecast by 2.2 to 130 MMT on better 2nd crop yields. Old crop carryout was a tad bit lower at 298 MMT. Among new crop outputs, Ukraine was 2.5 MMT higher amidst export uncertainties from that region while the EU combined were 3.7 MMT lower while China and South Africa both cut by 3 MMT and 1.7 MMT respectively. China’s authority left corn production unchanged from their prior month estimate, while adding that inclement weather likely could affect output and quality of crops. In the world front, that lowers the total output 11 MMT to 1.214 B MT. Ending stocks were 3 MMT tighter to 311, compared to the 314 MMT expected going in. Total supply was a net 155 mbu lower after a 55 mbu looser old crop carryout picture. USDA trimmed old crop FSI by 20 and exports by 25. For new crop demand, USDA cut feed and residual by 25, FSI by 20, and exports by 50. That tightened stocks by 60 mbu to 2.202 billion. There are a couple of Fib measures on that measures as a continuation Fib extension and the other as a peak to retrace and we consider both of them valid since they point to a potential lower set of profit targets one at 466 and the other a bit higher at 468.
CBOT:ZC1!
by TechTrader79