Trade the Crude OIl Range Shorts and Longs Crude oil perspective going into Inventories data highlighting solid levels for longs and shorts
CRUDEOILMN2025 trade ideas
CL Bearish Outlook Look like after price took out BSL at the PDH from 80.16 it has moved lower and has been targeting PDLs. There is a nice discount D BISI that I believe price will trade into and if price is truly Bearish then it will trade right through the D BISI CE level and find minimal support and then the next area of focus could be the double bottom at 72.70
Lets continue to watch price and see how it delivers.
Are CL Futures starting a new bull trend in 2025?Crude Oil WTI Nymex Futures
NYMEX:CL1!
Big Picture:
Crude Oil WTI NYMEX Futures Update – January 2025
Crude Oil WTI NYMEX futures are trading higher, with bullish price action evident at the start of 2025. Price has broken above the 2024 Composite Value Area High (CVAH) and is now approaching the Composite Value Area High from the 2022 high, as shown in the chart above.
Macroeconomic Outlook
From a global perspective, persistent inflation may be supported by elevated commodity prices. Higher crude oil prices, coupled with potential trade wars and tariffs, could drive up costs in major sectors, such as rare earth minerals.
In this scenario, we anticipate central banks, including the Federal Reserve, maintaining higher interest rates. We believe the previously expected two rate cuts of 25 basis points each for this year may be reduced to zero. However, this creates a challenging environment for central banks. A combination of sticky inflation, resilient job markets, and low unemployment could lead to a "goldilocks" scenario. Recessionary risks will be increased unless some means of fiscal policy measures provide further support to the US economy.
Key Levels to Watch
Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan.
CVAH: 79.50
Resistance R1: 79.50 – 79.85
Resistance R2: 81.30 – 81.60
Neutral Level: 78.77
CVAH 2024 / Support: 75.00
Support (Yearly Open): 71.85
Scenario 1: Exhausted Buyers, Mean Reversion
In this scenario, we anticipate range-bound price action, offering a potential short opportunity if buyers appear exhausted. Price action and volume analysis would need to confirm this. Look for absorption around the neutral zone or below R1/CVAH, with prices failing to push higher. A lower high and seller dominance would confirm a mean reversion short setup.
Scenario 2: Breakout Above CVAH
A confirmed breakout above CVAH could indicate further bullish price discovery and the potential for a new uptrend. Consolidation above CVAH followed by strong price action would provide a trigger for long positions. However, significant resistance at this level necessitates confirmation via price action and volume analysis before taking action.
Scenario 3: Swing Failure at CVAH
In this scenario, prices rise above the neutral zone and R1/CVAH, but sellers regain control, pushing prices lower. A swing failure candle with a long wick near the resistance zone would indicate the failure. A subsequent higher low could present a short opportunity for a mean reversion trade.
We encourage you to monitor these levels closely and incorporate them into your trade planning. Share your thoughts or insights on these key levels in the comments below.
WTI Crude Oil Futures: The Chokers of the Global EconomyLast Friday, January 10, 2025, the United States announced its most sweeping and aggressive sanctions against Russian oil trade, just ten days before Joe Biden leaves the White House and is replaced by Donald Trump.
In fact, it was more of a soap opera at first, as an unofficial document of unknown origin on the subject of sanctions had been circulating on the Web since the Fridays' morning before the official press release from the US Treasury appeared, causing the stock quotes of the companies affected by the sanctions to experience increased volatility in Friday trading on the local exchange.
Finally, about 160 oil tankers were sanctioned, and India, a key buyer of seaborne barrels, will not allow ships to call at its ports after the end of the curtailment period in March.
If these measures remain in place under Trump, they have a better chance of disrupting Russian oil exports than anything any Western power has done so far.
In addition to the tankers, sanctions were imposed on two major producers and exporters, traders arranging hundreds of shipments were listed, major insurers were named and two U.S. oil service providers were ordered to leave. A Chinese oil terminal operator was also included.
The measures could theoretically reduce what the International Energy Agency forecasts as a supply glut of nearly 1 million barrels a day this year.
Brent and WTI crude futures, which have generally traded lower for the past two and a half years, ended Friday at $80, data from ICE Futures Europe and CME Group's Nymex show.
Surgutneftegaz Sanctions RUS:SNGS and Gazpromneft RUS:SIBN are by far the most direct and aggressive move taken so far by Washington or any other Western power.
Together, the two companies shipped about 970,000 barrels of oil per day by sea in 2024, and their inclusion on the list will be a cause for concern for refineries in India as well as state-owned companies in China.
Putting their seaborne flows in context, that’s more than the global supply glut the International Energy Agency predicts for 2025. It’s also nearly 30% of Russia’s seaborne exports.
No one is suggesting that either company’s shipments will be completely shut down, but the fact that they are under sanctions, as well as other measures announced, means that supply chain disruptions and supply shortages cannot be ruled out.
Global markets, which were also hit by the December NFP report, reacted as expected.
The Nasdaq-100 immediately fell about 1%, the U.S. dollar index TVC:DXY rocketed to the moon while the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds TVC:TNX jumped nearly 10 basis points to 4.785%, its highest since October 2023.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average - a benchmark for the global economy - ended last week lower for a sixth straight week, while Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Bears are already dreaming to enter a Bear Market, approaching a 20% decline from the highs of around $108,000 reached in December 2024.
The technical main graph is dedicated specifically to WTI oil futures (the contract following the expiring one), and supported by the averages of the 5- and 10-year SMA.
It points to the reversal of the disinflationary time span seen in the previous two and a half years, from mid-2022.
// Don't say "hop" , before you throned 😏
Bearish Analysis: Crude Oil (CL Futures)1️⃣ Rejected at Supply Zone:
The price was strongly rejected from the $80 supply zone, where sellers clearly took control. This zone has been a key resistance level, and the recent bearish momentum confirms strong selling pressure.
2️⃣ Bearish Momentum in Play:
The sharp decline from the supply zone has broken short-term supports, signaling sustained bearish movement. The next major target is the $66–$67 demand zone, where buyers may step in.
3️⃣ Technical Indicators Supporting Bears:
RSI: At 54.88, the RSI suggests there’s room for further downside before reaching oversold conditions.
Stochastic Oscillator: A bearish crossover between the %K and %D lines confirms increasing selling pressure, with momentum favoring a continuation of the trend.
4️⃣ Fundamentals Adding Pressure:
Trump’s Energy Policy: Potential policy changes to increase domestic oil supply could create a bearish outlook for crude oil.
Stronger Dollar: The strengthening USD makes oil more expensive for global buyers, further dampening demand and supporting the bearish case.
🎯 Strategy:
TP1: $75 (Near-term target, close to the current price).
TP2: $74.30 (Minor support, a potential bounce or pause area).
TP3: $72 (A strong psychological and technical level).
TP4: $67 (Major demand zone).
🔔 Note:
Consider using a positive stop loss to secure gains and reduce risk. Always practice proper risk management to protect your capital and maintain consistent results.
CRUDEOIL READY FOR ALL TIME HIGH...MCX:CRUDEOIL1! trade at 6770 level. Crude oil trade in a triangle range since last 3 years. This week gives a strong breakout above 6400 level. Now you can watch for all time High level.
Crude Oil Prices Showing StrengthCrude Oil Futures have seen continued strength to the upside after seeing a choppy trading environment for several weeks. Crude Oil has several indicators that can sway the prices to the upside or downside very quickly based on global supply and economic uncertainty, and traders and seeing all of this in action starting off the new year. Tensions in the Middle East may give traders concerns about the future supply of Crude, and with the uncertainty of geopolitics moving forward in the United States after the election there are many factors to consider when trading Crude Oil. Today, prices are higher once again on the March contract and are testing highs from July of 2024.
Over the years as the popularity of Crude Oil Futures has grown, there were different sized contracts that enable traders to choose their own sizing options with the mini and micro contracts. These contracts range from the full sized contract at 1,000 barrels, the mini contract at 500 barrels, and the micro contract at 100 barrels giving traders the ability to choose a smaller or larger size based on their own risk tolerance.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
Crude Oil: Short Strategy Recommended for Next Week
-Key Insights: Crude oil has shown a bullish outlook in the short term, but
underlying bearish indicators suggest a cautious trading approach. Market
dynamics may shift due to geopolitical events, potential oil surpluses, and
rising interest rates. Traders should watch for critical economic data that may
influence oil volatility.
-Price Targets: Next week targets are set at T1=$74.00, T2=$71.00 with stop
levels of S1=$80.00, S2=$82.00. This aligns with the current price of $77.67,
positioning for potential downward movement while maintaining necessary risk
management.
-Recent Performance: Crude oil recently breached key resistance levels,
reflecting strong bullish momentum, yet is now at a crucial juncture where
downward pressure may emerge. Price fluctuations indicate the need for
monitoring as oscillations could lead to notable shifts in market sentiment.
-Expert Analysis: Analysts express mixed sentiments; short-term optimism hinges
on current bullish movements alongside warnings of future market corrections.
Monitoring fluctuations in interest rates and their impact on crude prices
remains vital, emphasizing the careful approach due to potential volatility.
-News Impact: Geopolitical tensions, including alignments of Saudi Arabia with
BRICS nations and ongoing sanctions against Russia, Iran, and Venezuela are
pivotal. Anticipated economic indicators, particularly from the Bank of Japan,
could indirectly influence the oil market by impacting the US dollar's strength,
which is crucial for crude oil pricing globally.
A Strategy for Renko ChartsThe first thing that may jump out at you on the chart is that it is not a Renko chart. TradingView does not allow strategies to be posted when on a Renko chart. However, I wanted to publish the following ideas from my journey in creating a trading strategy for a Renko chart. I didn't realize I wouldn't be able to publish it on the chart itself (or anywhere) until after I'd completed the first phase of it.
To see this on a Renko chart, you can convert the chart to Renko, set the timeframe to 1 minute and then the blocksize to 20 (for CL1! or WTI) using a close, traditional setting, and no wicks.
I had several goals I wanted to achieve when I started building this strategy.
Learn PineScript. The best way to learn a new programming language is to have a practical target to reach.
Codify some of the ideas I have been putting together over the past several years on trading with Renko charts.
Have a way to remove emotions out of entering and exiting trades.
TradingView does not allow for strategies to be published on Renko charts due to some of the nuances with the charts that can distort results of tests. However, once you understand some of these scenarios, you can look for them and adjust.
As for the strategy, to-date, it is based on three indicators: the Least Squares Moving Average , Donchian Channels , and Linear Regression . I wanted all of the inputs to be configurable like the underlying indicators themselves. As I got into the development and testing of ideas (I started over many different times :D), I realized there were other parameters I wanted be able to configure and added the as I went.
The approach (as of now):
Create a TV strategy that could be used for back testing
The strategy should be well supported on Renko charts with a common setup and configurations
The strategy could be applied to Renko charts and be configurable enough to support all types of markets
For the Renko charts, I typically go with a static setup. As an example, for CL1! or WTI, I use a blocksize of 0.20 or 20 ticks using the closing price and a traditional configuration. I do not use wicks on the charts. I set the timeframe to 1 minute (this is the length of time needed at the sustained price to print the specific brick). In TV strategies, my understanding is that until the brick prints, the strategy won’t be executed for the strategy. I touch on some of the ramifications later but for now know this is probably one of many reasons strategies won’t be published on Renko charts.
For the strategy, I wanted to create something that is reactive. I wanted it to be able to detect patterns or the beginnings of some type of pattern and then look for some type of evolution on the incoming bars. One thing I realized during testing is that having a “lookback” introduced latency.
Think of the strategy as a series of or layers of filters. As the strategy moves through the execution process for each bar/brick, the filters become more restrictive and constrained. My goal was to be able to back test ideas that gave me the largest profit factor with a minimum number of trades and drawdown.
Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA): This is the first layer of the three filters. J Basically, there is an entry and exit threshold that the LSMA is compared against to determine if there is a change in direction with either a crossover or crossunder. If there is a cross, then the first condition to enter a trade is met. In the strategy, this is the only configuration that is turned on by default.
Use the LSMA for Flat Detection : If enabled, will detect if the LSMA has not changed brick over brick. If this condition is detected, it will disable the entry of both longs and short. The rationale being that if flat, the market is in short term consolidation and new entries should not be made. With the LSMA length default set to 5, this rarely happens.
Use the LSMA for Full Direction Detection : This enables a couple of additional checks that can influence the order process.
Is the LSMA direction cross in sync with the price direction (e.g., if the LSMA is crossing over (up) but the brick direction is red (down), then the two are not in sync and entries should be disabled
Is the LSMA, on a crossover (up) greater than the last LSMA high (vice versa for a cross under (down)). This can detect scenarios where price is consolidating but not necessarily making new highs or lows. This will keep trades for triggering during this consolidation.
Donchian Channels : The second layer in the filters.
The initial setting for this is a length of 5. By default, this layer is disabled. If enabled, then the Basis of the DC is used to filter out trades where the price is positioned contrary to it. If the DC is enabled, to enter a long trade, the close must be above the Basis and for a short, the close must be below the Basis. Otherwise, entries are disabled.
Use the Basis for Flat Detection : Like the LSMA, if bar over bar the Basis of the DC turns flat, any trades will be disabled. Like the LSMA, the purpose of this flat detection is for consolidation and to not take trades while the market is consolidating.
Use the Basis for Full Direction Detection : If enabled, like the LSMA, enforces alignment of the DC’s Basis and price direction. And, like the LSMA, if the Basis has not taken out the previous high or low, then the entry process is disabled.
For both the LSMA and the DC Channel, enabling these last two configs can become restrictive. As you experiment with them with the market of your choice, you can fine tune them to fit your trading / account style. The intent of both flat detection and the current to previous high/low is to filter out conditions that lead to price churn and trading thrash.
The indicators up to now have been reactionary to price movement. Regardless of a larger view of direct or bias, an entry is triggered; long or short.
What if you want to trade with a bias or at least back test to see how it may influence your trades? What can you use to determine a bias. The method I chose in this strategy is Linear Regression.
Linear Regression : The third layer of the filters. This filter is used to determine if the trend is up, down, or flat (transitioning between up and down). Once enabled, trades will only be taken in the direction of the trend (unless in transition). With this filter, you can configure the length and the threshold to detect consolidation. The length will tune how fast a change in direction is detected while the threshold will determine how far from 0 the slope of the regression must be for it to indicate neutral.
Additional configurations :
Brick Threshold to Pull Rip Cord : Once an entry is made, it can go contrary to your thinking. This setting will let you control how far you are willing for price to drive from original entry contrary to what you were thinking.
Close the Position on First Brick: To keep profits close, this will exit any position (long or short) once the first brick contrary to the current position is printed. You will want to experiment with this and back test. Once it does exit, if the position is triggered again in the next several blocks, it will try to enter.
Consolidation Length : This config controls the slope threshold in the LR to differentiate from up and down.
Again, full disclosure, TradingView does not allow strategies to be published on Renko charts. If you want to experiment with it, you can convert the chart to Renko and configure it as outlined above. Then, you can experiment with various configurations and see what type of results you get.
Some things to watch out for:
If you apply this to a US stock and focus on the regular session, then there will be gaps at the open that won’t appear as gaps on Renko charts. However, the strategy can try to make it look like you had a great fill on the open (which most likely is not the case). Additional work needs to be done to filter out this specific scenario
Limit orders should not be considered in the strategy on a Renko chart because the brick will only be executed when the brick prints. Market orders should only be used and only when the close for the brick prints.
Oil pullback(NOL) nano Crude Oil Futures printed a diamond top pattern on the 4hr chart. A diamond top pattern is a technical analysis pattern that often occurs at or near market tops and can signal a reversal of an uptrend. This is a possible short entry / take profit from long position. The timing on an oil pullback could last approximately 2-3 days. This pattern is invalidated with a candlestick close above 79.
Trade idea:
short = 78.60
stop = 79
profit = 73
Crude Oil -Can use the fundamentals to push the strong resitanceHi guys we are going to take a look into CL. The Black Gold has had some interesting fundamental events recently , with the Biden administration imposing a few important and key tarrifs over the Russian exports of OIL. Additionally on a technical preview as we visited this asset a few times, it has broken a few very key support levels, and the price started actually moving in a good direction.Previously we saw the price move sideweays for almost 2 months.
Entry: 77.50
Target 1: 78.50
Target 2: 79.50
Target 3. 80.50
As always my friends happy trading!
P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my community so you can follow up with me in private!
crude boiling up.The next challenge building up. crude raising its head could pose a serious problem as salt in the wounded USD INR. tough days ahead.
CL continued Bullish BiasI will keep my bias Bullish with the draw being the PDH at 80.16 Now price could retrace into the D Discount Wick into the CE level and then trade higher but my overall Focus is the double top BSL.
OIL & The Buffet TradeMARKETSCOM:OIL & The Buffet Trade
From a Technical View I see the Inverse Head & Shoulder playing out.
Current economic catalyst may be the reason why this very common technical pattern plays out, I'll be trading it on the way up.
The GOAT Buffet is all in NYSE:OXY which says a lot.
Crude Oil Q1 2024, 3d ChartPublishing this chart because of how much it reminds me of the 2019 price action and want to track it.
Bullish Analysis for Crude OilCurrent Price: 73.80 USD
Price Action: After a strong bounce from the Demand Zone, Crude Oil is now pushing higher, targeting previous Resistance Levels. 🚀
Momentum: The market is showing strong bullish momentum, ready to test those upper levels! 📈
🔑 Entry: Buy at 73.80 USD
Take Profit Levels:
🎯 Take Profit 1: 74.00 USD (first resistance hurdle)
🎯 Take Profit 2: 74.65 USD (next resistance level to conquer)
🎯Take Profit 3: 74.90 USD (key resistance level to break through) 💰
💥 Stop Loss: Set your safety net at 72.54 USD, just below the demand zone to manage risk effectively. 🛡
This setup has all the right signs for a bullish continuation! With an attractive risk-reward ratio and strong technicals behind it, this trade is geared up for a potential run toward the next resistance levels. Let’s capture that upward momentum! 🌊📊
Crude Oil breaks and follows projectionAfter the long consolidation time, CL finally broke the Trend-Barrier (TB) and is now on the move to the upside.
It's not stupid to aim for the 1/4 line as PTG1.
But for sure I would only close a portion of the position, since the upside potential is far higher.
And if you don't know how much to bank, just go with 50% of your investment. If it's going higher, you're still participating from the move.
If it goes sour, you have already banked 50%.
Just create a plan and follow it.
Can the HOUSE CAPITALIZE LONG & target MKL $80.00 Per Barrel?NYMEX:CL1!
" A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives." -Jackie Robinson
As we head into the 2nd trading week of the New Year, I hope everyone has a HIGH SET Goal that they want to achieve. Let's be strategic in our goals and make sure we put forth rightful action that will get us the results we desire. In this sport we play there is no Reward without RISK... So, let's get down to business on what exactly were looking for this week to STRIKE GOLD for the HOUSE to benefit...
'Crude OIL':
Confluence Profile 500K (Expectational Order-Flow + PA) 10pt STOP / 50-60pt Target
Key info: On average Crude Oil runs for 120pts LONG or SHORT during NY session 5am-2pm PST.
Our Playbook: We cut 120 in Half = 60pts as our new GOAL to catch for the DAY (Intra Day)
Pillar 1) HTF EOF "Market Direction" In which direction are we headed? Who has the stronger hand? Currently Buyers have the stronger hand on both the Daily & 4Hr TF's. Since the New Year kicked off Oil has been rallying to the upside breaking Supply and Demand HOLDING with strong conviction. So now we know that HTF/LTF Pro Trend is LONG and HTF/LTF Counter Trend is SHORT.
With Oil Currently trading inside of the HTF Daily Supply Zone I am going to wait for more data to develop in the PA before I start to build the Confluence Profile 500K (Expectational Order-Flow + PA). Once we get our Confluence Profile to flow in symmetry together; HTF Mitigation w LTF Entry Confirmation / Order Flow Footprint + PA we then will enter our positions INTRA DAY....
Keynote: LTF Pro Trend is LONG & LTF Counter Trend is SHORT.... Either way is Profitable!! Done correctly at the right time & price. I will keep update as more date in the PA develops throughout the week.
Remember; "Our Profession is to Manage the downside costs of printing HIGHSIDE returns of $$$ consistently. Done correctly, well Abundance awaits us." -500KTrey
What next for WTI ?Although we had a strong up move in oil last week we remain well within last years range. we still a need above $76.50 area to pose a threat on higher prices towards $85/90, otherwise we sink back into the range of the last 14 months, similarly a close below $63.75 will see the deeper move lower.
Light Crude Oil Futures (CL1!): Setting New LimitsWe’ve been patiently waiting for an entry at $58, but the market hasn’t reached our level. After reassessing the chart, we believe it’s now more profitable to play CL1! as a long following what appears to have been a fake breakout.
Recent developments, including Trump’s declaration of a national energy emergency to “unlock the liquid gold under our feet” and prioritize U.S. oil and gas development, could bolster bullish sentiment in the energy sector.
If our wave count is correct, we are currently in intra wave 2 of wave ((iii)). If this setup holds, a target of at least $115 seems achievable. We are placing our limit order and will patiently wait to get filled.
Key Levels at the moment:
Support Zone: $67.70–$64.40
Resistance Zone: $85–$88
Crude Oil: Testing Resistance Amid Bearish MomentumCrude Oil Update (1-Hour Timeframe)
Chart Overview: Crude Oil is trading within a downward channel, respecting the resistance trendline, which aligns with the 50 EMA, signaling sustained bearish momentum.
The price attempted a breakout but faced rejection at the resistance, confirming the downtrend. The support zone near 6,420 has held well but remains under pressure.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 6550 - 6570
Support: 6420 - 6400
Bearish Target: 6350 - 6300 (if support breaks)
Strategy:
Monitor for a breakout or rejection at the trendline for directional confirmation. A move below 6,420 signals further downside, while a breakout above 6,550 may reverse the trend.
Risk Management: Maintain a stop-loss below the triangle's lower boundary for long positions and above the upper boundary for short positions.
Disclaimer: This technical analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always trade responsibly and manage your risks effectively.
Oil Cypher, decent structure. Full plan Pretty standard set up for me, I typically trade this in a much lower time frame. Procedure rarely changes, find structure, use all of the patterns and build area of interest.
Using a combination of a Cypher and Lighting/1.2 for entry also a sub cypher for target.
Add levels posted in chart.
use boxes for stop management. 1st yellow box move stop to BE, 2nd tp1 and 3rd tp 2. I trade Oil a bit differently if anyone is wondering as far as Tp's, Feel free to use standard off the top same process. I will update this if and when time allows.
Best of luck guys 2025 is going to big!!
1st entry was 3o minute Pin bar, bought open of next candle. Late and 74$ was .414 and even handle, all things I have interest in.
2025-01-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Pretty much tapped out of this market at the moment. I thought it looked decent that we could bottom out at 75 but another strong spike down to 74.5 is wild.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 73 - 80
bull case: Bulls have their do or die moment at 73 tomorrow. Either bottom out or we likely see 70 next. The buying was so climactic upwards but now it’s the same for the selling. Tough market for me. Got honestly nothing for the bulls until they print higher highs again and trade consecutive 1h bars above 76.5.
Invalidation is below 75.
bear case: Bears just took this over from the high and we are selling every little rip. Amazing to see but I still think it’s tough to trade. I won’t turn bear now right at the 50% retracement and daily 20ema. Below 74 we could test 72 next and afterwards there is no more support until 70.
Invalidation is above 76.5.
short term: Either it finds support at the daily 20ema around 74 or it might es will just continue down to 70 again.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Shorting 76 has been profitable since Tuesday.
