Natural Gas short viewThe price of natural gas could drop to the $2.30 level this week and form the next lower low there. The November bearish trend line represents strong resistance at the beginning of December.
NATGAS.PRO.OTMS trade ideas
Winter Cash-Cow@NaturalGas is a sure bet as we come to the end of each year. Winter is coming and households need to be warmed up. With the escalating tension in oil-producing countries, and temperatures dropping, Natural Gas has the best opportunity to close this quarter strong as demand increases and supply is under threat.
Despite being down about 40% YTD, there is still a lot of upside left. However, there is some historic price resistance and the 50EMA is backing this up. With fundamentals aligning up for further upside, we might see resistance turning support in the course of this quarter.
NATURAL GAS BEARISH OUTLOOKThe recent surge of warm fronds impacting the United States, the largest consumer of natural gas, shows no signs of dissipating soon, exerting significant pressure on its market. This has led to a substantial decline in the price of the gas, plummeting for eight consecutive days from 2.841 to 2.375, marking a staggering drop of over 16%.
Technical indicators are not signaling an imminent reversal of this trend in the short term, as both the MACD and RSI exhibit robust Sell signals. Should the current trajectory persist, there's a possibility that the price could dip to support levels around 2.124.
A potential pivot point at 2.405 might be considered, potentially leading to a price rebound to 2.712.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
Long Natgas and Short USDJPY - Financial Disaster SpeedrunWeather looking warmer than it seems? Gas inventories high as shit? IT DOES NOT MATTER. KANDA OUT OF HIS JOB?? WHO CARES!
TL;DR: Long NatGas Calls 2.950 USD DEC Expiry and Short USD/JPY spot at 149.6 SL 150.10.
In the grand tradition of financial kamikaze dives, Redridge Capital has just executed a trade that makes even seasoned market veterans cringe. We've simultaneously longed natural gas through December expiry options and shorted USDJPY through a highly leveraged spot position.
Yes, you read that right. We've essentially bet that natural gas prices will skyrocket while the Japanese yen will plummet. It's like betting on both red and black at the roulette table – a strategy that's sure to leave you with an empty bank account and a newfound appreciation for financial stability.
We're not here to play it safe. Of course we are not, what do you think this is? S&P ETF?
We're here to make wild bets, break all the rules, and generally shake up the financial world. And if we happen to lose all your money in the process, well, at least we'll have a few good stories to tell at the bar.
So, let's break down this idiotic trade, shall we?
Betting on Natural Gas: A Recipe for Disaster
We've longed natural gas through December expiry options, meaning we've bet that natural gas prices will be higher in December than they are today. This is a risky proposition, considering the mild winter we just had and the massive glut of natural gas sitting in storage.
But we're not just betting on a mild winter; we're betting on a full-blown apocalypse. We're talking polar vortexes, snowmaggedons, and a nationwide shortage of flannel shirts. If our bet pays off, we'll be heroes. But if we're wrong, we'll be the financial equivalent of the Hindenburg airship.
Overall, we think the sentiment here has gone too far and we could see a 10-15 % rally in the gas market based on the inventories surprise.
LONG DEC Expiry @ 2.950 USD
Shorting USDJPY: A Dance With the Devil
On the other side of the equation, we've shorted USDJPY through a highly leveraged spot position. This means we've borrowed a bunch of money to bet that the Japanese yen will weaken against the US dollar.
Now, we're not exactly experts on Japanese monetary policy, but we do know that the yen has been on a strengthening streak lately. So, why are we betting against it? Because we're Redridge Capital, and we like to make life difficult for ourselves. We are expecting an unwinding of long dollar positions based on an acceleration in Japanese CPI and weakening of the USD.
If our yen bet pays off, we'll be hailed as financial geniuses. But if we're wrong, we'll be forced to sell our kidneys to cover our losses.
The Road to Financial Ruin
So, there you have it. Our latest trade is a recipe for financial disaster. And we're not going to sugarcoat it: we expect this thing to go tits up in no time.
But that's the beauty of Redridge Capital. We're not afraid to make bold moves, even if they're incredibly stupid. So, sit back, relax, and enjoy the ride as we barrel towards financial oblivion.
NATGAS Q4 23 - Q1 24 FORECAST : MAY YOUR GOALS BE ACHIEVED 2024 Im expecting price to break $2.7 and drop to $2.5-$2.41
REJECTION from there and will drive prices higher past the high at $3.326
might not break highs and stop midway retracement thats what the yellow line is there for
Natural gas to plunge to $2.18Weekly POC is $2.18. Another 12-13% downside is coming. Don't get liquidated!
Natgas Accumulation phaseWe might have an accumulation phase here. Euro zone is heading into winter and we might see more bulls joining Natgas.
Analyzing Natural Gas Stocks: Navigating Trends !Description:
In a comprehensive analysis of natural gas stocks, a discernible bearish trend emerges, signaling a potential downtrend in the market. Investors may anticipate a decline in prices, with the next support level acting as a crucial point of interest. As the stock approaches this support zone, careful observation becomes imperative, as it represents a pivotal juncture that could either solidify the bearish sentiment or serve as a launchpad for a bullish reversal. Should the support hold firm, there is a prospect for a rebound, with the stock potentially entering a bullish phase, marked by increased demand and positive market sentiment. However, prudence is essential, as even in the face of a bullish resurgence, the stock may encounter resistance at the supply zone, leading to another potential downturn. Investors navigating the natural gas market must remain vigilant, leveraging technical analysis and market indicators to make informed decisions amidst the dynamic shifts in this ever-evolving sector.
Readers are urged to conduct their own research and seek the guidance of financial professionals before making any investment decisions in the volatile natural gas market.
thank you.
Leading Diagonal?? Or One Leg Downside!!Hello there!
I am a big fan of the Elliott Wave Principle, which is very interesting and useful for analyzing the market. I have developed my analytical approach by combining the principle with my personal experience and considering various scenarios that may occur in the market.
Although I want to share my analysis with you, I want to emphasize that I do not provide buy or sell signals. My main intention is to share my unbiased analysis so that you can use it as a guide to make informed decisions.
To build your confidence in my analysis, I always share my previous analysis of the same market so that you can compare and see the progress. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, which should make it easy for you to understand.
I hope that my analysis will be helpful in your trading journey and wish you all the best.
Sincerely,
Natural Gas Support and Fib level- LONG
Hello fellow traders
Why do I think there is time for Natural Gas to rise? Few reasons
1. Fib levels at 0.618 of a drop
2. Support level right now!
3. RSI at a very low levels- exhausted sales
This is just an idea not a tradfing advise, I am keeping this position opened with s/l and t/p as shown 3.04 t/p is for the remaining half of the position as I plan to close half when it's at the marked resistance level, always trade with s/l avoid tears..
NATURAL GAS DIRECTION Embarking on a strategic investment journey, I've decided to open a long position in natural gas within the range of 1.5000 to 2.5000.
This thoughtful move is part of a broader strategy, intended to be held for several months. Importantly, I'm incorporating robust risk management practices to navigate the inherent uncertainties of the market. With a keen eye on global economic activities impacting the energy sector, this personalized approach reflects my commitment to a patient and informed investment strategy. By monitoring economic dynamics, I aim to make the most of potential shifts in natural gas prices over the coming months, seeking sustainable returns in this dynamic market.
This is a long term position I am holding ,same principle applies to all my analysis
GAS: WE HAVE THE SAME PRICE ACTIONHi guys,
we are in the same situation as I'm showing you in the chart, for the moment I do not consider take any short on Gas, but if we go lower I consider a entry long position.
For now it's better wait and see, because Gas and Oil are dumping, market is rising and tech stock are close to reach new interesting level, so put a percentage of my portfolio on gas seem useless.
Let's see.
AREAS OF INTEREST ON NAT GAS (WIDOW MAKER)Areas of interest on Nat Gas are as indicated by green and red boxes. The whole market seems off at the moment, so I'd be very selective on entries. On lower time frames, there is cheap-looking but possibly valid ADAM and even bottom setting up.
Recap NatgasClose as the end of this day might give us a clue of where and how we gonna trade this this instrument. As trader we love trading on either pullback or breakouts, and in this case we can see a minor resistance just above the now price. If bullish momentum keep increasing (1) I might consider going long above resistance (2) wait for the breakout above resistance, then a pullback to the breakout point before going long. Will read the candlestick on lower timeframe and use lower timeframe for entry and to get a affordable RRR.
Nat gas bullish reversal It will hit to 200 EMA and start reversal. Next 6 month it will reach above 6
Any Natural Gas Bulls left?Natural Gas has been in a 4 week donwtrend,
Price action jsut seems to be bleeding lower.
As we approach the Daily 200 MA, loof for sings of accuulation.
Bullish for NATGASIdentifying an intriguing chart setup in NATGAS: Since mid-October, the price has experienced a decline of approximately 22%. Examining the broader chart perspective, the correction has, so far, only retraced 50% of the upward movement since April 2023.
The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicates a clear hidden bullish divergence. Consequently, we anticipate an imminent rise in natural gas prices.
A realistic target range is around 4,000 or higher.
It is important to note that this is a longer-term trading idea.
Two possibilities in gasGreetings, dear friends. I hope you are having a productive week.
I am happy to assist you in ensuring that all previous analyses are attached to each corresponding analysis. This will provide a comprehensive overview and help you make well-informed decisions. Please do not hesitate to let me know if there is anything else I can do to assist you further.
I want to share my market analysis ideas based on the Elliott Wave Principle with you.
I am a fan of this principle and follow all the rules and guidelines for analyzing the market.
However, please note that my ideas are based on my personal experience and may change over time.
If there is an error in my analysis, I am open to re-analyzing it from the beginning and learning from my mistakes.
It's important to understand that making an error in analysis is not a fault, but evading responsibility is.
No one can analyze financial markets with 100% accuracy, but it's remarkable how close we can get.
We analyze from multiple perspectives to consider all possibilities.
Let's mention a few opinions and ideas!
Based on mathematics.
I am still practicing to understand the Elliott Wave Principle better and hope to provide an even better analysis in the future.
Thank you for your continued support, and I look forward to our mutual success.
Best regards,
Mr. Nobody
Keep trying and never give up.
Good luck!
Natural Gas Short Analysis 29/11/2023I rarely trade Natural Gas but I often get good rewards from it quickly. Overall it's bearish, just had a breakout at support and daily candle closed strongly bearish, I'm shorting down to 2.7300 with small risk. It could touch HTF demand and go up to HTF supply and then continue back down again, go up to HTF supply and then continue down or just continue going all the way down from where price currently is.
I rather see how price reacts first rather than assume how where price will go. Natural Gas is very risky but can be very rewarding if played well.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
Big Short on NATGAS Am I Crazy?Gooood morning guys,
As always I keep things brief and simple
Short on CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS actual price 3.50$
FIRST TARGET --> 3.00$
SECOND TARGET --> 2.75$
Why?
- Stocks are full in Europe
- Seasonality, Autumun season boosts in the beginning of October stabilizes till mid of it and crashes in the end of the month. I'm just following the cycle.
What could go wrong?
- Israel events happened and we still have to see the effects with other exporters arab countries I don't think that something is going to happen as the '73 crisis (I don't have a sphere to predict the future)
- The stocks are not full in the US
- Thyphoons in the US
- Unexpected decrease in temperature
- Seasonality not respected and sudden big speculation on the price of NATGAS
With that being said I just share my opinion here and I repeat don't have a magic sphere nor I'm god so future is always unpredictable I just adapt to change and keep up to date.
oh and yeah TradingView already says that but I'm going to say it again I AM JUST SHARING MY IDEAS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICES HERE
Peace out
Natural Gas Prices Fall to More than 2-month LowsYesterday, XNG/USD quotes dropped below the 2,900 level for the first time since mid-September. This was helped by the fact that the NatGasWeather weather forecasting model late last week showed a cooling trend in December in the US, but this was replaced by warming over the weekend.
According to analyst forecasts from Analysts Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., published on Monday:
→ natural gas reserves at the end of winter could be 2 trillion cubic feet (previously forecast 1.9 trillion);
→ price could be USD 2.75 (previous forecast was USD 3 or less).
Meanwhile, the US Natural Gas price chart shows that:
→ the price of natural gas is near the lower border of the channel (shown in blue), which can provide support;
→ the MACD indicator indicates divergence (a sign of weakening selling pressure).
Thus, although the market has been in a bearish trend since the beginning of November (shown in red), the chart shows bullish signs — it is possible that the price in the short term may rise to the upper limit of the red channel. The likelihood of this scenario will increase if the weather forecasting model indicates a cold snap.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Natural gas is nearing its bottom if not already.I believe Natural gas is nearing its bottom and about to launch from a downward (bullish) wedge. Also its currently above its 200 DMA which dropped from above and when that happens Natural Gas usually has a nice bullish rally. So using Trendlines and fibs I show where I believe Natural Gas is or has bottomed and where I think it might be headed by EOY taking out a bear gap way above.
🟢 NatGas UpdateNatGas has been following the plan so far. Slowly getting into the position to bounce of 200 MA on Daily chart. Perhaps oil will rally due to similar reasons yet to be known.
