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NATURAL GAS Futures (NYMEX) (OANDA EU Clients)NATURAL GAS Futures (NYMEX) (OANDA EU Clients)NATURAL GAS Futures (NYMEX) (OANDA EU Clients)

NATURAL GAS Futures (NYMEX) (OANDA EU Clients)

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Natural Gas, BullishThe chart suggests an Elliott Wave pattern of an impulsive structure currently in Wave 3. The projection indicates that Wave (3) is in play to 5.37$, with a possible retracement for Wave (4) to 4.8-5 before a continuation toward Wave (5). The breakout is supported by increasing momentum and volume, indicating strong bullish sentiment. Potential resistance around Wave (5) target zone about 10$. Note that the continuation of the Russia- Ukraine war could act as the catalyst to this trend.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by Mostafa-Mir
1
Natural Gas still coiling! breakdown or breakout?Hello Traders In This Chart NATGAS HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today NATGAS analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (NATGAS market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on NATGAS Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
FXOPEN:XNGUSDLong
by ForexMasters2000
Natural Gas (XNG/USD) – Critical Decision PointNATURALGAS, 4H Mad-Hatter Mar 2, 2025 Natural Gas is testing a key support at $3.8250, a level that has provided a base for multiple rallies in the past. However, with bearish fundamental pressure mounting, we may see a breakdown that could accelerate the downside move. Probability Breakdown & Market Bias Bearish Breakdown (Below $3.8250). 70% Bullish Bounce (Holding $3.8250 & reclaiming $3.90-$4.00). 30% Why the Bearish Bias? Weather Forecasts Lean Bearish – Warmer-than-expected temperatures in Europe are reducing heating demand, limiting upside potential for Nat Gas prices. Technical Weakness – Price has been trending downward, forming lower highs since peaking near $4.30. Failure to reclaim $3.90-$4.00 would confirm weakness. Market Sentiment Shifting Bearish – LNG supply remains stable, and demand isn't spiking as expected. If $3.8250 gives way, sellers will step in aggressively. Scenario 1: Bearish Breakdown (Most Likely - 70%) If $3.8250 breaks, expect a sharp decline toward $3.60 - $3.50. Trade Plan (Short Position) Entry: Below $3.80 (confirmed breakdown) Stop Loss: Above $3.85 (to avoid whipsaws) Target 1: $3.60 Target 2: $3.50 A strong 4H close below $3.80 will confirm the bearish move. Scenario 2: Bullish Reversal (Less Likely - 30%) If $3.8250 holds and buyers step in, price could rally toward $3.95 - $4.10. Trade Plan (Long Position) Entry: $3.83 - $3.85 (after a clear rejection wick) Stop Loss: Below $3.75 Target 1: $3.95 Target 2: $4.10 Look for high volume rejection around $3.8250 before entering long. Final Analysis & Market Outlook Bias: Leaning Bearish (70% probability of breakdown) Invalidation: If price holds $3.8250 and reclaims $3.90+, bias flips bullish Key Catalyst: If Europe remains warmer, expect downside pressure to persist The higher-probability trade is to short on a confirmed break of $3.80. If the level holds, a long is possible, but the overall structure remains weak. Watch for confirmation before taking action.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASShort
by Mad-Hatter
NATGAS Short Squeeze on the Cards? NATURAL GAS – INTEGRATED PREMIUM TRADING/INVESTMENT REPORT (All data current as of Feb 21, 2025, unless otherwise noted. No major updates post-Feb 21. Any contradictory signals are flagged in context.) 1) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Natural Gas (NG) has shifted into a bullish structure on higher timeframes after a prolonged 2022 downtrend. Macro indicators suggest that while U.S. gas storage is somewhat below the five-year average, Europe’s inventories remain comfortable due to strong LNG inflows. On the positioning side, hedge funds are still net short, yet price has rallied significantly off sub-$2.00 levels—a textbook setup for a potential short squeeze. Technically, NG shows a weekly uptrend with higher highs and higher lows, supported by strong momentum (price above long-term moving averages and Ichimoku Cloud). Lower timeframes (daily, 4H) remain bullish but reveal short-term consolidation around the 4.50–4.57 resistance zone. The biggest “conflict flag” is the gap between stubbornly high short interest and ongoing price strength. Bullish Arguments • Confirmed uptrend on weekly and daily charts • Price trading above major SMAs and Ichimoku cloud levels • Potential for a short squeeze if large net shorts unwind Bearish/Contradictory Arguments • Significant hedge-fund net shorts persist • Mild European winter and stable US production could cap demand-driven spikes • Price nearing technical resistance around 4.50–4.57 2) MACRO & MARKET SENTIMENT OVERVIEW Global Macro Context • US Storage: Most recent data showed weekly withdrawals leaving storage levels roughly 5% below the five-year average. • Europe: EU gas inventories remain higher than typical for this time of year, thanks to increased LNG imports. That limits immediate winter crisis worries but does not fully remove upside price risks in case of abrupt cold or supply disruption. • Speculative Positioning: Money managers continue to hold net short positions, indicating a degree of skepticism about sustaining higher prices. Still, the spot market has climbed off its lows significantly since early 2023, underscoring potential volatility if shorts unwind. Conflict Flag: Persistent short positioning vs. a rising price environment suggests an unstable equilibrium—either further short covering fuels a continued move higher or renewed selling pushes NG lower if bullish catalysts fade. 3) ECONOMIC CALENDAR Below are key dates/events over the next 1–2 weeks that could shape Natural Gas price action: Date Event Potential Impact Wed (Weekly) EIA Petroleum Status Report Can affect overall energy sentiment, though more relevant for crude. Minor spillover to NG possible. Thu (Weekly) EIA Natural Gas Storage Report A surprise in weekly storage data can trigger strong NG moves. Feb 29 (Fri) China PMI (February) Strong manufacturing may support global LNG demand; weak data might weigh on energy complex. Next 1–2 Weeks Unscheduled OPEC+ or Russia updates Any disruption or policy shift in global energy markets can indirectly impact gas sentiment. All references are based on last known data as of Feb 21. If these dates pass without new surprises, the market may focus on other factors such as weather or any unexpected LNG facility outages. 4) TECHNICAL OVERVIEW Weekly Timeframe • Market Structure: Transition from 2022’s downtrend to clear higher highs/lows in 2023. Price is above the 10, 50, 100, and 200-week SMAs. • Ichimoku: Price is above the weekly cloud, with a bullish Tenkan–Kijun cross. • Momentum: RSI near 70 (approaching overbought), MACD strongly positive, ADX around mid-30s indicating a strengthening trend. • Key Weekly Support: ~3.00–3.30, a major pivot where strong accumulation previously took place. • Key Weekly Resistance: ~4.50–5.00, historical supply blocks from the 2022 sell-off. Daily Timeframe • Trend: Continues forming higher highs/lows, price remains above all daily SMAs. • Indicators: RSI around 60–65 (positive), MACD above zero, Bollinger upper band near 4.50. • Support Levels: 4.00–4.10 (key pivot and volume cluster), 3.60–3.70 (bullish order block). • Resistance: 4.50–4.57 area (recent swing high, Bollinger upper band). 4H & Intraday • Short-Term Structure: Still bullish, though momentum has cooled below ~4.57. • Momentum Indicators: 4H MACD rolling over near zero, RSI near 59–65. • Key Intraday Levels: • Support ~4.13–4.15 (recent local low). Below 4.00 would signal deeper pullback potential. • Resistance ~4.50–4.57 (local supply). No new price or indicator updates beyond Feb 21. Any significant market move after that date is not reflected in these technicals. 5) KEY LEVELS & CONFLUENCE • Major Weekly Support: 3.00–3.30 • Daily/Intermediate Support: 3.60–3.70, 4.00–4.10 • Near-Term Support: ~4.13–4.15 intraday pivot • Resistance: 4.50–4.57 overhead; if cleared, 5.00 becomes the next psychological barrier Fibonacci extensions from the rally low (~1.90) point to 4.23–4.30 (already tested) and ~5.00 as a further extension if momentum continues. 6) TRADE SCENARIOS & FRAMEWORK Bullish Scenarios 1. Aggressive (High Risk) • Entry: Near 4.13–4.15 or a dip that reclaims 4.10 on short-term charts. • Stop: Tight, below 4.00–4.05. • Targets: 4.50–4.57 (T1), then 4.70–5.00 (T2). • Rationale: Quick bounce play, potential short squeeze continuation. • Risk: High whipsaw risk if support fails. 2. Moderate Risk • Entry: 4H close above ~4.20–4.25, confirming renewed upside momentum. • Stop: Below 4.00. • Targets: Same T1 and T2. • Rationale: Waits for short-term structure to turn clearly bullish again. 3. Conservative • Entry: 4H or daily close above 4.45–4.50. • Stop: Wider, below ~4.00. • Targets: 4.57 (T1) then 5.00 (T2). • Rationale: Ensures resistance is cleared, aligning with the dominant uptrend. Invalidation: A decisive close below 4.00 on strong volume would undermine the bullish outlook. Bearish Scenarios (Deeper Correction) 1. Aggressive (High Risk) • Entry: Breakdown under 4.13 or a rejection at 4.40–4.45. • Stop: Above 4.50. • Targets: 4.00 (T1), 3.70–3.60 (T2). • Rationale: Catch a short-term reversal if momentum stalls. • Risk: Countertrend trade in a larger bullish market. 2. Moderate Risk • Entry: 4H close below 4.13, confirming short-term structure break. • Stop: Above 4.50. • Targets: 4.00, then 3.70–3.60 if deeper selling unfolds. 3. Conservative • Entry: Daily close under 4.00. • Stop: Above 4.40–4.50. • Targets: 3.70–3.60, potentially more if weekly uptrend truly unravels. Invalidation: Reclaiming 4.50 on a closing basis would negate the bearish thesis and likely resume the broader uptrend. 7) RISK MANAGEMENT • Volatility (ATR): Weekly ATR ~0.44, daily ATR ~0.25. NG can move swiftly, so calibrate stops and position sizes accordingly. • Position Sizing: Consider risking only 1–2% of trading capital per trade, scaling out at interim targets. • Data/Events: The EIA Natural Gas Storage report each Thursday often sparks volatility. Unexpected weather or LNG facility disruptions can also move prices quickly. • Conflict Flags: Large net shorts in futures vs. rising spot price. Keep watch if short covering intensifies or if fresh sellers step in. 8) CONCLUSION & ACTION STEPS • If price sustains above 4.00–4.10 and we see momentum pick up (e.g., a 4H close >4.25), then a retest of 4.50–4.57 is likely, and possibly up to 5.00 on a breakout. • If price drops below 4.00 (especially on a daily close), then expect deeper pullbacks toward 3.70–3.60. • Keep an eye on the weekly EIA data release and any abrupt weather or geopolitical shifts. • Use prudent stops: Natural Gas is inherently volatile, so a balanced approach to position sizing and partial profit-taking is advisable. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. All trading carries risk—exercise caution, maintain adequate stops, and stay updated on real-time market developments.
PEPPERSTONE:NATGASLong
by EliteMarketAnalysis
Natural Gas (XNG/USD) – Big Move ComingNat Gas is coiling inside a symmetrical triangle, meaning a breakout is coming soon. The big question is: which direction? Key Levels to Watch Resistance: $4.20 - $4.22 → If we break and hold above, bulls could take over. Support: $4.10 - $4.12 → If this breaks, we could see a bigger sell-off. Right now, the setup leans slightly bearish, but I’m not convinced until we get a clear break. A move below $4.10 could send us toward $4.00 - $3.80, while a breakout above $4.22 could push us to $4.30 - $4.40. What’s Driving the Market? Bullish Case (Higher Demand) A strong cold wave in the U.S. is increasing heating demand. Production freeze-offs due to extreme weather could tighten supply. Bearish Case (More Supply Coming In) U.S. production is rising, and pipeline expansions will add even more supply. Possible Russia-Ukraine ceasefire could bring more gas back into Europe, reducing global demand pressure. Both sides have strong arguments, which is why this triangle is so important—once we break out, it’ll tell us which force is stronger. How I’d Trade It If we break below $4.10, I’d look for a short: Target 1: $4.00 Target 2: $3.80 Stop loss: Above $4.15 If we break above $4.22, I’d consider a long: Target 1: $4.30 Target 2: $4.40 Stop loss: Below $4.15 Final Thoughts With market open coming up, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a gap at the open, which could hint at which way this triangle is about to break. I’m neutral for now but leaning slightly bearish, unless we get a strong push above $4.20. Let’s see how this plays out—what’s your bias? Breakout up or down?
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Mad-Hatter
1
Natural gas tests the key levelNatrural gas was moving in a strong uptrend, and the good question whether this move will conitunue. Inventory of natural gas is moving down along with the 5-year seasonal, as withdrawal period continues. That keeps natural gas in a seasonal uptrend, until expiration of a current futures contract, while the next will discount the upcoming injection period and will be pricing in a potential decline. The price of natural gas has reached the overbought condition, having emerged out of the upper boundary of Bollinger Bands (50), which, statistically, increases the odds of the price reverting back the mean - the area of between $3.5 and $3.7. While it’s relatively difficult to time reversal trades, it can be a potentially sharp and furious move down. If made correctly (with the help of some reversal formation, such as candlestick engulfing patter, for example), this situation might represent a decent opportunity with a low risk and potentially extended gain. Remember, always remember to manage your risk and do your own research!
FXOPEN:XNGUSDShort
by Stanislav_Bernukhov_Exness
Gas Prices Catch Fire: 25-Month High Reached Amid Winter's FuryNatural gas futures have reached a 25-month high, marking a significant price increase. This surge is attributed to two primary factors: 1. Cold Weather: Unusually cold temperatures in key regions have increased demand for natural gas, as it is a primary source of heating. 2. Supply Disruptions: Issues in natural gas production or distribution have tightened supply, further driving up prices. ◉ Technical Observations ● After breaking out of the Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern, the price soared to $4.350. ● Subsequently, the price faced a significant pullback to around the $3.30 mark. ● However, the price rebounded from this point and is now at a 25-month high, with expectations for continued growth.
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by NaranjCapital
Natural gas Wave Analysis – 19 February 2025 - Natural gas broke resistance zone - Likely to rise to resistance level 4.400 Natural gas recently broke through the resistance zone at the intersection of the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from November and the resistance levels 3.800 and 4.000 (which have been reversing the price from December). The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the active impulse waves iii, 3, which belong to the medium-term impulse wave (3) from November. Given the clear multi-month uptrend, Natural gas can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 4.400 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave (3)).
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by FxProGlobal
Natural Gas Price Hits Highest Level Since January 2023Natural Gas Price Hits Highest Level Since January 2023 The XNG/USD chart today shows that natural gas prices have surpassed the December 2024 peak, breaking through the key psychological level of $4.000/MMBtu. Since early February, prices have surged by over 20%. Why Is Natural Gas Price Rising? According to The Wall Street Journal, the bullish sentiment is driven by: → Weather models confirming forecasts of a significant cold spell. → LNG exports remaining at record highs. Additionally, US gas exports may increase further after President Trump lifted the pause imposed by the Biden administration on new LNG export projects. Bloomberg reports that Trump’s administration is close to approving its first LNG export project. Technical Analysis of XNG/USD The price movements are forming an upward channel (marked in blue) on the chart: → Prices are currently near the upper boundary of this channel. → The RSI indicator is in the overbought zone. → The price briefly exceeded the $4.000/MMBtu psychological level. → Buyers may look to secure profits after the recent sharp gains. Given these factors, traders may anticipate a potential pullback, which—if it occurs—could bring natural gas prices back towards the channel’s median level. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XNGUSD
by FXOpen
1
A Short-Term Pullback Seems LikelyLooking at the chart, it feels like natural gas is in an overhyped zone, pushing up against strong resistance around 3.71-3.75. We’re already seeing signs of rejection at this level, which could mean a correction is coming soon. Short Opportunity? If the price fails to break above 3.75, a short trade with a target around 3.60-3.50 could be a solid play. A stop-loss just above 3.78-3.80 would help avoid getting caught in a fake breakout. Long Opportunity? If we get a dip to 3.50-3.55 and it holds, that could be a great spot to go long, especially with summer demand picking up later in the year. Risk Factor? If the price breaks above 3.80, we could see a much bigger rally toward 4.00+, so shorting above that level becomes risky. How I’d Trade This: Aggressive approach: Short from 3.71-3.75, aiming for a drop to 3.60-3.50. Safer approach: Wait for a dip to 3.50-3.55, then look for a long entry if price stabilizes. Right now, a correction looks very likely, but patience is key. Let’s see if the market confirms it in the next few sessions.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASShort
by Mad-Hatter
4
Natural Gas Short: Testing the $4 Barrier – Opportunity Knocks!Natural Gas (XNG/USD) has spiked to revisit the $4 price zone, activating my short trade. This marks the second time in two years that the price has reached this significant resistance area. The $4 level is pivotal, serving as a key psychological barrier and a historic zone of strong price action. With the position now live, I am leveraging the resistance for a retracement opportunity. Fundamentals: • Weather and Seasonal Demand: Short-term spikes in demand are driven by cold weather in the U.S., but with futures traders starting to focus on spring, we may see waning bullish momentum in the coming weeks. • Russian Gas Supply Constraints: Limited Russian gas flows to the EU continue to add uncertainty to the market, but the current rally seems to be pricing in short-term factors rather than long-term structural changes. • Historical Levels: The $4 spot price has attracted significant attention as a resistance zone, with $3.40 acting as a key support in recent months. The bounce from this level earlier this year highlights its importance. • Market Behavior: Futures traders’ sentiment and seasonality are critical drivers. As winter progresses, reduced speculative demand may favor a bearish pullback. Technicals: • Entry: $4.00 (Resistance Zone) • Target: $2.60 - 2.70 • Partials: From $3,19 • Stop Loss: $4.40 (Above Recent Highs) • Timeframe: 12H This short trade aligns with technical, fundamental, and seasonal narratives. As the price has shown rejection at this zone, I will actively monitor for a breakdown toward the $3.40 level while managing risk prudently. Stay disciplined, follow your trading plan, and remember to pay yourself as the market unfolds. Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASShort
by AR33_
Natural gas Wave Analysis – 11 February 2025 - Natural gas reversed from the support area - Likely to rise to the resistance level 3.67 Natural gas continues to rise strongly inside the short-term upward impulse wave iii, which started earlier from the support area located between the round support level 3.0000 (which has been steadily reversing the price from November) and the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support area created the daily upward gap – which signals the strength of this support area. Given the clear daily uptrend, Natural gas can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 3.67 (which has been reversing the price from December).
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by FxProGlobal