SMCI To Follow Nividias Path?Looking at the chart above, we can see on the right how Nvidia has been trading within a channel since its existence, until recently it seen a break above and a clear re-test and continuation from this level, setting new boundaries for their stock price as a result of AI developments.
We can also see on the left SMCI, who's chart looks very similar, having just broken an retested that same upper channel resistance level before continuing higher.
Lets have a look at why this may be the case:
Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI)
Focus: SMCI specializes in manufacturing high-performance servers and storage systems, including AI-optimized servers critical for mounting AI chips from companies like NVIDIA and AMD. They do not manufacture chips but complement chipmakers by enabling AI infrastructure development.
AI Expansion: SMCI has seen significant growth, with fiscal 2024 revenue reaching $14.94 billion (up 110% YoY). The company is leveraging partnerships with NVIDIA and AMD, tapping into the AI server market, which is projected to grow at an 18% CAGR until 2032.
Market Position: SMCI holds approximately 10% of the AI server market and aims to expand this to 17% in three years, driven by increasing demand for AI-powered hardware and systems.
Market Cap: Around $16 billion as of recent data. There’s significant growth potential as it rides the AI wave, potentially leading to valuations closer to NVIDIA’s over the long term, depending on market execution.
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
Focus: NVIDIA dominates the AI chip market with its GPUs, which power most AI applications, including training large language models. The company also ventures into software and data-center solutions.
Recent Growth: NVIDIA reported $26 billion in Q1 2024 revenue, up 262% YoY, with EPS growth of 461%. Its dominant market position allows it to maintain pricing power and capitalize on increasing AI infrastructure investments.
Market Cap: [/b ] NVIDIA’s market cap exceeds $1 trillion, reflecting its status as a cornerstone of the AI industry. Its control of the AI chip market gives it an edge in capturing future demand as global AI investments grow.
Comparison and Growth Outlook
Complementary Roles: SMCI and NVIDIA are not direct competitors but operate in synergistic niches—NVIDIA supplies the chips, and SMCI builds the servers to host them.
Growth Potential: NVIDIA benefits from its unmatched dominance in AI chip technology, while SMCI has room to grow within the AI server market. Analysts predict SMCI will grow faster proportionally, given its smaller base and increasing market share ambitions.
AI Opportunity: The AI hardware market, including servers and chips, is expected to surpass $84.9 billion by 2031. SMCI and NVIDIA are positioned to capture significant portions of this market.
Future Market Cap Projections
SMCI: If it scales its AI server market share and revenue effectively, its valuation could rise significantly, potentially exceeding $50 billion within a few years.
NVIDIA: Sustained leadership in AI chips could push its market cap further, perhaps toward $2 trillion in a bullish AI adoption scenario.
Both companies are critical to AI infrastructure development and are positioned to benefit from global AI investments, but NVIDIA's established dominance contrasts with SMCI's emerging growth trajectory. Each offers unique investment opportunities tailored to different risk and growth profiles
