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WTI Crude Oil 3 Month Spread Synthetic

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5A1! trade ideas

Is another oil price collapse approaching?If you would like to be notified whenever I post a new article, just click “FOLLOW” at the top. Also, if you would like to elaborate on a particular topic or need some advice, please comment below the article and I will be happy to help. Is another oil price collapse approaching? Despite a slight recovery in oil prices, prices still remain down 10 percent from last quarter. On Monday, WTI crude oil futures topped $70 a barrel, registering a 1.4 percent increase from the previous week. This was mainly due to oil infrastructure disruptions in the U.S. Gulf and expectations of lower interest rates in the United States. As a result, nearly 20 percent of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico remains offline due to Hurricane Francine. In addition, investors are betting on a Federal Reserve rate cut of 50 percentage points to stimulate the economy and increase demand for oil. However, concerns persist about slowing demand after Chinese data showed the longest phase of industrial decline since 2021, with lower-than-expected investment and doubts about whether China's growth target will be met. In Libya, oil exports declined significantly due to the impasse in UN-led talks on central bank management. The EIA provides valuable data on global oil supply, with some information that may be eluding markets. For example, global crude oil production peaked in November 2018 at 84.6 million barrels per day. In May of this year, world production declined to 81 million barrels per day. This indicates a slowdown in supply, and data on the number of Baker Hughes (BKR) oil rigs suggest that drilling activity in the United States is gradually declining. This may be good news, but the main problem is the declining demand for oil. Slowing economic growth globally has reduced oil demand, as evidenced by OPEC's consumption review. In particular, China-the world's largest consumer of crude oil-has been affected by the crisis in the real estate sector and the transition to cleaner energy sources such as LNG and electric vehicles. At the same time, the United States has seen an increase in oil exports due to its growing production capacity, putting bearish pressure on global prices and offsetting the production cuts decided by OPEC. Using technical analysis, we can assume that the price of crude oil will reach $72, which is a resistance zone, before a possible new downward movement. We anticipate possible weakness in oil prices in the next quarter due to unstable demand around $60. However, a change in OPEC policy could avoid this situation, with a significant cut in production. We will pay attention to the development of news on this issue. We look forward to seeing you in the next article! And remember, for successful trading always rely on TRADINGVIEW: an indispensable tool that can help you avoid serious mistakes during your trades. Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Antonio_Ferlito
CYCLICAL ANALYSIS - Crude Oil to Go Up To Mid OctoberDISCLAIMER: This is not trading advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only to show how I view this market. Trading involves real risk. Do your own due diligence. My COT strategy has Crude Oil SETUP for longs if we get a TRIGGER (Confirmed bullish trend change). But what do cycles have to say about this long trade idea? Cycles suggest that we should see an up move in Crude Oil until Mid October/Early November. I look at many interesting things: -Using the DOW Arab Titans 50 index as a leading indicator of where Crude Oil may trade to. -The annual cycle of oil is strong and should not be ignored. It too is supportive of taking a long until mid October. -The Decennial cycle is supportive of a bounce in oil into mid October. -Major economic cycles & temporary trading cycles are also indicating an upmove could be imminent for oil. -Lastly, we see that the previous most similar year of price action (2019) suggests oil could move higher into October/November. TO BE CLEAR: This does not mean I am going long blindly, I wait for entry TRIGGER (18 MA, 10h8c MAC, Divergence). This market did already trigger via divergence last Wednesday via the CCI (Commodity Channel Index) divergence confirmation. If you have any questions about my cyclical analysis, feel free to shoot me a message. I hope you had a good start to your week. And as always... Good Luck & Good Trading.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Tradius_Trades
Oil Price Recovery Emerges Ahead of January LowThe price of oil recovers ahead of the January low ($64.37) to keep the Relative Strength Index (RSI) out of oversold territory. Crude Oil Price Outlook The price of oil extends the rebound from the monthly low ($65.27) to carve a series of higher highs and lows, with a break/close above $71.70 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) bringing $74.00 (50% Fibonacci retracement) on the radar. A breach above the monthly high ($74.41) opens up the $75.30 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to $76.30 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) region but the recent rebound in crude may end up short-lived should the price of oil respond to the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA ($74.73). Failure to hold above $68.50 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) may push the price of oil back towards the monthly low ($65.27), with a close below $65.40 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) raising the scope for a test of the January low ($64.37). --- Written by David Song, Strategist at FOREX.com
NYMEX:CL1!
by FOREXcom
Oil9.11.24 it turns out that this video only talks about oil. there were other important markets such as the dollar and the currencies and also some commentaries on other markets that I've been looking at when a routine basis with these videos.... but there were some special things that occurred on this particular Market and it gave me a chance to talk about my concept of the smart money that can do things with the price action that can really mess up your Trading because what is good for you in your mind really is a bad trade decision because you're not really thinking about how the smart money creates patterns that are great for them and bad for you. obviously I can't give you cause and effect.... I can only guess and since I'm giving you precise descriptions and how this can play out you'll see if it's working or not because I'm telling you much of it before the market has a chance to show you what I'm talking about. no matter how good this is I know that 90 something percent of the people watching will never do the work.... they never do the work and I know the outcome for them will be failure when it comes to Trading. most people cannot deal with failure and risk and other matter that makes trading so difficult. most people don't realize how difficult it is to make money Trading and they don't make the effort to do what successful people do... is to work hard and test everything that you think you need to know before your risk capital. in general the smartest most successful people in markets have no interest in telling you how to trade. trading Is Not a Love Fest. my experience after many years at this is that most of the people I paid money to in the first couple of decades of my trading experience we're generally very disappointing but at least they got paid they made money because I had to pay for their wisdom.... it's obviously not their trading based on my experience. this video turned into a comparison of a bear trap ...and a bear flag. I'm not really sure if I'm naming them accurately according to Convention. ... and it is well known that the relationship to Smart money and fast money is a well-known topic. the assumption is that the smart money does something that eludes the fast money.
NYMEX:CL1!
by ScottBogatin
2024-09-10 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - Bears in full control and the 4h ema is king. Bulls are also making money buying new lows, so we have some two sided trading, despite the bear strength. comment: 4h 20ema. Add that to your wti crude oil chart and trade it. Market is respecting it and there are amazing trades to be made. How long will it continue? No one knows but markets tend to do what they have been doing. Intertia. The bear channel is also looking good for now. Where could be the next bigger support for the bulls? 64.46 was my bigger target for the bears and they already reached it. The 2023-12 low is at 63.21 and the next support below would be 60. For now I think shorts are not favored near the lower bear trend line and I would only look for shorts near the 4h ema. Can you long this? You can but stop would probably be 64.7ish because 65 could easily get tested. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 63 - 71 bull case: Bulls are content with scalping long at new lows. They are quick to exit once bigger bears come around and that’s why the selling ist mostly done via quick spikes (roughly 1h in length). Since we are at the lows of the bear channel, r:r favors the bulls for 67 or 68. Invalidation is below 64.7. bear case: Bears are in obviously in control. The selling is orderly with pull backs and we are in a decent channel down. Also true is that bears take profits at new lows, hence the pullbacks to the 4h ema. 63 to 67 was an area where the market produced a lot of tails below the bars in December and January. I doubt bears can continue this strong through that price area. Invalidation is above 68.8. short term: Bullish for retest of the upper bear channel and 4h ema. SL is 64.7. medium-long term: Will update after this week. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Once again, a short near the 4h ema.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
Oil Prices Drop on Weak China Demand & Gulf StormOil prices continue to drop as weak demand in China persists, despite disruptions from Tropical Storm Francine in the Gulf of Mexico. Latest data shows consumer inflation in China rising slower than expected, with crude oil imports rebounding slightly from July but still weak on a seasonal basis. In the Gulf, oil and gas producers are shutting down platforms and evacuating workers as they brace for the storm. 📊 Technical Outlook: The market is approaching key support levels: • 38.2% retracement at $65.16 (2020-2022 move) • $63.64 (2023 low) • $61.74 (mid-2021 low) While these levels might hold during the initial test, it’s unlikely they'll prompt a reversal. With the market trading below the 200-week moving average and breaking the 55-month moving average, there's potential for prices to dip below $50 in the longer term. A negative bias remains below $84.52, and if support levels break, we could see a structural downtrend. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by The_STA
Sellers Successfully Broke to the downside on Weekly TF...NYMEX:CL1! "Our patterns make prints that show up on paper." -Trinidad Chris Family as we get ready to start this trading week. Let's make sure we play very close attention to every detail in the market on every TF from the Weekly n Below. Our #1 focus is the Mastery of our System! We are in the business of Managment. Here in this video, I went into gr8 detail as to why I am more so SHORT biased on Crude OIL. However, LONGS are still on the table if the right High Probable Set Up presents itself!! This is going to be a BIG BIG Week for the HOUSE!!! Let's stay on POINT!! Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently. Let's Keep Steppn!! Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!! #BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
NYMEX:CL1!
by TreyHighPwr