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WTI Crude Oil 3 Month Spread Synthetic

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5A1! trade ideas

Upside Ahead for Crude Oil - COT Strategy LongDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy LONG Crude Oil (CL) My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in CL if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal OI Analysis: Down move since July and recent consolidation has seen CM's getting more long. Valuation: Undervalued VS GOld True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for oil to go up to mid October. Front Month Premium: Front month delivery contracts selling at premium to further out contracts. This is bullish, and is a sign that we could see a commercially driven bull move. COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist Buy Signal Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside. Good luck & good trading.
NYMEX:CLV2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
Managing Oil Price Uncertainty with Micro WTI StraddlesYou cannot predict the future, but you can prepare for it. This is even more true for crude oil prices. Forces driving and pulling back oil prices are in full play in parallel at the same time. Oil prices remain at the risk to both the upside and the downside concurrently. Take this week as an example. WTI prices started with a rally extending a three-day uptrend of >7% following Fed’s hint at rate cuts plus heightened tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. The rally reversed as tensions eased. Crude oil prices crashed 3.8% over Tuesday & Wednesday on fears of feeble demand. RATE CUTS AND GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS DRIVE OIL PRICES HIGHER The US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has signalled that the time to pivot was about now when speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium last week on 23/Aug. This boosted optimism for oil prices, fuelling a rally reversing a price slump caused by weak Chinese economic data and disappointing US payroll revisions. Chair Powell’s remarks lifted market sentiment, leading to gains in oil prices and the dollar weakening. A feeble dollar makes oil cheaper for non US consumers and can help increase demand pushing up oil prices. Source: CME FedWatch Tool According to CME’s FedWatch tool , there is a 67.5% likelihood of a 25 basis points (“bps”) rate cut and a 32.5% chance of a 50 bps rate reduction at the September FOMC meeting. Sadly, the tensions in the Middle East continue to prevail. Last weekend, Hezbollah launched rockets and drones into Israel, prompting a swift response from Israel's military, which deployed around 100 jets to prevent a larger attack. Adding to these factors are disruptions in oil production in Libya and Colombia. The easing of tensions between Hezbollah and Israel reduced supply fears, with some speculating that Iran might view Hezbollah's missile attacks as sufficient retaliation. Despite easing tensions, supply concerns persist in Libya threatening to reduce oil production by 1.2m bpd. WEAKENING DEMAND AND OVER PRODUCTION COULD PULL OIL PRICES BACK Concerns over weak oil demand from China, a global economic slowdown on the horizon, and elevated Russian crude production is keeping oil prices under check. Russia has exceeded its OPEC+ production targets since March, leading to excess supply that is undermining the impact of OPEC+ production cuts and keeping prices low. Source: OPEC and IEA On Wednesday, the EIA reported a decline of 846,000 barrels in US crude inventories for the week ending 23/Aug, falling short of analyst expectations of a 2.7 million barrel drawdown. The market response to this smaller-than-expected inventory decrease was muted. Demand for crude and gasoline will soften as US summer driving season ends first week of September. Expectations of weaker US gasoline demand and lower refining margins have led several refiners to scale down their operations reducing demand for crude. The largest US refiner, Marathon Petroleum ( NYSE:MPC ), announced that it will reduce its refining capacity to 90% this quarter, the lowest for a Q3 since 2020. PBF Energy ( NYSE:PBF ) will lower its capacity utilization to a three-year low, and Phillips 66 ( NYSE:PSX ) will cut its capacity to a two-year low. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley reduced their 2025 Brent crude forecast to USD 77/barrel and USD 75/barrel respectively. Reasons cited for reducing forecasts include weaker Chinese demand, higher inventories, oversupply from OPEC countries, and rising US shale production for the downward revision. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Over the past two weeks, crude oil prices have been volatile for reasons mentioned above. Looking ahead, rate cuts in September, the ongoing crisis in Libya, and reduced US gasoline demand will fuel further uncertainty to oil prices in the near term. This is evident from rising WTI crude oil implied volatility. Earlier on 05/Aug it slid from its YTD high of 44.7 but has started to pick up again. Source: CME CVOL Establishing a directional position amid such uncertain backdrop is rife with risks. Long straddles using Micro WTI Crude Oil Options offer an effective way to capitalize on rising volatility. Straddles are designed to benefit from (a) significant price movements in the underlying asset regardless of the price move and (b) volatility spikes. Sharp oil price moves, and volatility spike are to be expected given the current context. Straddles provides “unlimited” profit potential combined with limited downside risk. A straddle comprises of two trade legs, namely, a long ATM call option combined with a long ATM put option. This paper posits a long straddle on CME Micro WTI options expiring on 17th September. Micro WTI options provide exposure to 100 barrels of WTI crude offering a smaller contract size and lower premium requirements. Based on 30/August market prices, this hypothetical trade set-up uses CME Micro WTI Crude Oil options expiring on 17th September and involves (a) Buying a 76 ATM Call, and (b) Buying a 76 ATM Put. The premiums for each leg and the corresponding option Greeks as shown QuikStrike Strategy Simulator are shown below for ease of reference. The straddle requires USD 1.91 per barrel in premium for the long call and USD 1.8 per barrel for the long put. In aggregate the straddle would cost USD 3.71 a barrel. Each CME Micro WTI Crude Oil option comprises 100 barrels which translates to a premium of USD 371 per lot. When Micro WTI Crude Oil futures trade past break-even points as shown in the chart, this straddle will deliver positive returns. • Lower break-even point: 76 - 3.71 = 72.29 • Upper break-even point: 76 + 3.71 = 79.71 However, at expiry, if Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures prices settle between USD 72.29 and USD 79.71 a barrel, this straddle will incur a maximum loss of USD 3.71/barrel or USD 371/lot. The straddle pay-off are summarized in the table below to augment the above chart, illustrating the potential P/L of this trade at a few settlement prices. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by mintdotfinance
2024-08-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - News again which let the market rip for 285 ticks but above 67.7 we saw bigger profit taking and a decent pullback to the 30m ema. Kinda in the middle of the range and I am not trading there. Also no opinion on where to go next. Around 77 I favor bears to get back down again and around 74 I favor the bulls. Trading range price action. comment : Bulls had the news on their side today and strongly reversed from 74 for almost 3$. I expect another test of 77 tomorrow and there market decides if it wants to break above the weekly high 77.59 or trade back down to 74. Can also very well close exactly at the mid point 75.5. Neutral around 75-76, bearish near 77 and bullish around 74. Fade the extremes as long as market is making lower highs and higher lows. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 74 - 77 bull case: Bulls got near the bear trend line again and found more sellers than buyers. They want at least a retest of 77 and poke the trend line. Since no side has any control for many weeks now, I don’t expect this to change tomorrow. Invalidation is below 75. bear case: Bears stepped aside after the news release but come through near the bear trend line. They defended it and want to keep this below 77 / 77.59. 76 is a bad short, so the closer to 77 they can get, the better the math. Invalidation is above 76.2. short term: Neutral. Bullish above 76.2 for retest of 77 and then wanting to fade the extremes as mentioned in the comment. medium-long term : We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. Update: If we break below 70.67, the triangle is dead and we need to find new support. Will update this again when it happens. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long bar 7 or 8. Very strong bull bars after a climactic bear bar 7 which made a decent double bottom with bar 8 from Wednesday.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Neutral HOUSE outlook on Crude Oil to go LONG or SHORT...?NYMEX:CL1! "All your life you are told the things you cannot do. All your life they will say you're not good enough or strong enough or talented enough. They will say you're the wrong height or the wrong weight or the wrong type to play this or be this or achieve this. They will tell you no. A thousand times no. Until all the no's become meaningless. All your life they will tell you no. Quite firmly and very quickly. And you will tell them YES." -Lebron James We coming out on TOP nothing less than that! Here I have developed a High Probable SHORT or LONG based narrative, All depending on your risk appetite and perception of HIGH PROBABLE for the HOUSE to CAPITALIZE here on Crude OIL and below I break down into what I want to see develop before we enter the market. Let's get to it!! 1) On the WEEKLY TF we are currently trading inside a MAJOR Wedge. We have created eR/LQ to the upside and downside that price is just ping ponging back N forth in between. The most important part of this TF is the GAN BOX drawn out from the last WEEKLY HIGH to WEEKLY LOW and the 50% EQ Level ($76.30). That I believe price is trying to return back to ($76.30). 2) 4Hr TF I have also drawn out a GAN BOX from the 4Hr Last HIGH to 4Hr LOW and drew out the 50% EQ Level ($75.20) This is another level that I believe price is also returning to retest... 2) Now let's drop down to the LTF's 1Hr, 30m &15m.... As we can clearly see sellers have created this iR/LQ Trendline to the downside that clearly needs to be swept by buyers to create fair value in the market for both parties. *** Now if buyers can build off of this current 1Hr Demand that sellers swept out this morning during LONDON session and we can push price back up above 4Hr Swing EQ ($75.20) and sweep the iR/LQ Trendline with confirmed candle closures above then I may be interested in going LONG... 3) Now in order to go LONG I need to see price break above ($75.20) per barrel and close above price on the 30m TF n Below. If and when we can get these sequence of events to take place then I'll be highly interested in going LONG and my target would be WEEKLY Swing EQ Level ($76.30) roughly around 110 points in our favor LONG... OR we can just wait for price to reach Weekly Swing EQ Level ($76.30) drop down to the LTF 15m and just wait for a confirmed 15m CHoCh (Change of Character) and then go SHORT, Targeting 4Hr Swing EQ Level ($75.20) roughly around a 160 points in our favor SHORT Depending on Entry... 4) I'll keep close update as PA develops and we have more data to work with. Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently. Let's Keep Steppn!! Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!! #BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
NYMEX:CL1!
by TreyHighPwr
2
2024-08-26 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Morning and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - Breakout above happened as written in my weekly update. Only looking for longs now. Want 79 and then 80 before I expect a more complex pullback. quote from my weekly update: short term: Bullish above 75.1, bearish below 74 for retest of 72 or lower. comment : Bulls just continued on Monday and my 75.1 target was easily passed through. That trade was good for 200+, hope you made some. We are now at a minor bear trend line around 77.6 and I’d be surprised if we can just melt through that as well. The 1h ema was not touched once since Thursday’s US session. Very strong move by the bulls and decent chances we see 79 this morning. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 75 - 79 bull case: Bulls did what I expected in my weekly outlook and their next targets above are 79 and then 80. I do think 80 can happen today or tomorrow. If bulls can break above current August high 78.99, bears will probably step aside enough for 80 to come fast. Invalidation is below 76. bear case: Bears did not want to fight this after their leg down and market move’s freely higher without any fight. News weren’t on their side either yesterday. Where could we expect a bigger pullback? 78 is a big maybe. 79/80 is where I expect it more but do not look for any fades until bears closed a bear below the 1h ema. You would be trying to short a strong bull trend and that’s mostly gambling. Invalidation is above 78. short term: Bullish for 78 and most likely 79/80 as long as we stay above the 1h 20ema. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. Update: If we break below 70.67, the triangle is dead and we need to find new support. Will update this again when it happens. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Longing the breakout above 75.1 as I wrote in my weekly update. Was good for 200+.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
Crude is Ripping, but Where To?Crude Oil (October) Last week’s close: Settled at 74.83, up 1.82 on Friday and down 0.71 on the week Crude Oil rose sharply overnight after an Israeli strike on Hezbollah targets in Southern Lebanon, and Libya’s eastern government said it will halt exports. The two events, while unrelated, are the main cause for the sharply higher trade in Crude Oil this morning. Libya’s eastern government’s choice to halt oil production and exports was the result of a continued political tussle over the country’s central bank. Israel sent over 100 warplanes to strike thousands of Hezbollah missile launchers on Sunday - a flare-up in tensions amidst continued ceasefire talks. Furthermore, Hamas said yesterday “that U.S. talk of an imminent ceasefire deal is false and serves election purposes.” Libya was set to export 1 million bpd of crude oil in August. A retraction of Libyan barrels from the export markets may cause ripple effects this week as geopolitical tensions continue to flare and OPEC continues mulling their planned production increases. WTI Crude Oil futures are trading out above 76.75, the 50% retracement from the August 5th low back to the July 5th high. Previous resistance now defines support at 75.36-75.73 and again below there at 74.52-74.85, aligning with Friday’s settlement. Theis defines a clear blueprint for the bulls to hold the driver’s seat. Still, there is strong overhead resistance lurking at 78.13-78.54, but a move above could encourage forced buying. Bias: Bullish/Neutral Resistance: 78.13-78.54***, 79.85-80.00*** Pivot: 76.75 Support: 75.36-75.73***, 74.52-74.85***, 74.16-74.38*** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NYMEX:CLV2024
by Blue_Line_Futures
#202435 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Bears answered last weeks question on Monday but bulls kept the market two sided and bears gave up at the double bottom below 72. Bulls are creating decent bull bars again and last time they did this we went above 78. Above 75 odds favor the bulls for more upside to at least 77 but we are still low enough for bears to come around and test 72 again. Leaning bullish if market stays above 74. Quote from last week: comment : Bull and bear legs alike get shorter, market is contracting further. Triangle is valid since 2022. We are in the last weeks of it. If we get a huge event where we see Oil prices skyrocketing over the next 3-4 months, you read it here first. Play the range is the name of the game. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 70-80 bull case: Bulls printed a nice double bottom around 71 and are on their way up again. They want at least 77.5 and test the minor bear trend line starting from 2024-07-18. The last two reversal from prices below 72 both went without any pullback on the daily chart so I expect this one to just go up as well. No side is currently fighting the other too much. Invalidation is below 75. bear case: Bears got their early move below 74 and just went for 72 again. No bigger fight for 72 so bulls are doing the reversal again. There is a low chance that bears come around and want to keep it below the daily ema at 75 but i doubt it. If they do, best they can hope for is a test of 71.5 again. Above 75.1 I expect an easy and fast trade up to at least 77. Invalidation is above 75.1. outlook last week: short term: Neutral. Again. What can you do. → Last Sunday we traded 75.54 and now we are at 74.83. Low of the week was 71.47 and my target was 71/72. Hope you made some. short term: Bullish above 75.1, bearish below 74 for retest of 72 or lower. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 70 and 80. No more updates until market makes higher highs or lower lows again. current swing trade: None chart update: None
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
1
CL Long on Demand increaseLong CL retracement trade. alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by cbrennig4
CRUDEOIL - BREAKOUT OR NOT?Crude Oil Analysis (1-Hour Timeframe) Current Pattern: Crude oil is trading within a falling wedge channel, indicating potential for a breakout. Breakout Levels to Watch: Key Resistance: A break above 6185 is crucial for confirming the breakout from the wedge pattern. Sustained Move: If crude oil can hold above 6240, it would signal strength and a higher likelihood of a bullish move. Target: A successful breakout and sustained levels above 6240 could lead to a rally towards the identified demand zone, presenting a potential upside opportunity. Technical Indicators: Monitor volume and momentum indicators to confirm the breakout strength. IF THIS WILL HELP YOU PLEASE LIKE THE POST ❤️
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!Long
by Shalvisharma5
TI-BRNeutral/Slight long Reg LONG TI SHORT BRENT TI WILL GO UP BRENT DOWN TO NARROW THE SPREAD kljfsasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasad
NYMEX:CL1!
by cbrennig4