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5A1! trade ideas

Positional View - MCX Crude OilAs shown in the attached chart, "Astra India Indicator" Positional Predictions worked perfectly once again. Now MCX Crude Oil having Resistance of 6435 (1 hour chart) and need to close a candle in green above that level (hourly basis) to shift in BULLISH mode otherwise it can touch 6200 Level very soon. Disclaimer:- All the shared views are for educational purposes only. We provide Technical Indicators only for educational purposes. As we are not SEBI registered, there will be no claim rights reserved. Please consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
MCX:CRUDEOILG2025Short
by PawanSingh2023
#202504 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: We have a first decent pull-back and so far every dip buyer lost money. We are at the daily 20ema and missed the breakout price by 4 ticks. I think the odds favor the bulls to get another leg up and try 80 again. 5 consecutive daily bear bars is a bear micro channel and buying into this is a bad buy. Bulls will probably wait for more confirmation first. So best thing to do here is nothing. If the bulls get another leg up, I highly doubt they will get anything beyond 80, if they make it that far. The market would have never pulled-back that much in a strong trend. current market cycle: trading range - on lower time frames it’s also obviously a bull trend key levels: 73 - 80 bull case: Bulls have their do or die moment around 74. Below 73 this rally is over and we will aim for 67 much more than 80. A strong bullish daily bar could shift the momentum again and another try at reaching 80. Above the 4h 20ema and probably 76, this becomes a decent long again. I would wait for that confirmation before joining the bulls. Invalidation is below 73. bear case: Bears printed an endless pull-back down from 79.45 and the 4h 20ema was big resistance for the entire week. If bears just keep at it, we can continue all the way down from where we started end of December but if bulls gain momentum and go above 76, I doubt many bears want to hold short in fear of going to 80. Invalidation is above 80. short term: Neutral. I need confirmation for either side before I want to take a trade. The 4h and 1h is on the bear side and the daily looks still bullish enough for me to now want to get chopped around between 73 - 76. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85. current swing trade: None chart update: Nothing.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Light Crude Oil Futures (CL1!): Setting New LimitsWe’ve been patiently waiting for an entry at $58, but the market hasn’t reached our level. After reassessing the chart, we believe it’s now more profitable to play CL1! as a long following what appears to have been a fake breakout. Recent developments, including Trump’s declaration of a national energy emergency to “unlock the liquid gold under our feet” and prioritize U.S. oil and gas development, could bolster bullish sentiment in the energy sector. If our wave count is correct, we are currently in intra wave 2 of wave ((iii)). If this setup holds, a target of at least $115 seems achievable. We are placing our limit order and will patiently wait to get filled. Key Levels at the moment: Support Zone: $67.70–$64.40 Resistance Zone: $85–$88
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by freeguy_by_wmc
2025-01-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Pretty much tapped out of this market at the moment. I thought it looked decent that we could bottom out at 75 but another strong spike down to 74.5 is wild. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 73 - 80 bull case: Bulls have their do or die moment at 73 tomorrow. Either bottom out or we likely see 70 next. The buying was so climactic upwards but now it’s the same for the selling. Tough market for me. Got honestly nothing for the bulls until they print higher highs again and trade consecutive 1h bars above 76.5. Invalidation is below 75. bear case: Bears just took this over from the high and we are selling every little rip. Amazing to see but I still think it’s tough to trade. I won’t turn bear now right at the 50% retracement and daily 20ema. Below 74 we could test 72 next and afterwards there is no more support until 70. Invalidation is above 76.5. short term: Either it finds support at the daily 20ema around 74 or it might es will just continue down to 70 again. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Shorting 76 has been profitable since Tuesday.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
2025-01-20 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: We have touched the bear trend line and my bullish targets are met. The daily bar closed on it’s low and is decent enough for bears to get potential follow-through into the end of the week. I would want either very strong confirmation for shorts below 73 or a lower high below 75 before I short this. No interest in longs. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 71 - 75.5 bull case: Bears are not getting anywhere with this weak selling. It does look much more like a pull-back that will be bought soon than a bear trend that will accelerate. Bulls want to keep it above 76 and try again to get above 80. They are trading far above the daily ema and inside a perfect bull channel. They have all the arguments to buy this tomorrow and make bears cover again. 75 is a possibility but I would be very cautious with longs below. Invalidation is below 75. bear case: 3 consecutive daily bear bars but they are overlapping and market is still above 76. The next touch of this bull channel will most likely be bought and bears know it. Best they can hope for here is to stay below 77 and go sideways for longer. Invalidation is above 80.5. short term: Looking for longs around 76 for target 80. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85. Trade the bull channel until it’s clearly broken again. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Market did not find acceptance above 77.4 today and the sell-off at 2 p.m. cet was strong enough to just short it but it was going fast and I also missed it because I’m dumb.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Crude Oil - Moving to light resistance, so we can move up?Hi guys, we are looking into Crude Oil today again, looking into retesting the weak resistnce level which was recently formulated, we have a slight Ascending Channel which has been formulated looking to break it, then we will see what would be next Entry: 77.50 Target 78.60 As always my friends happy trading! P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my community so you can follow up with me in private!
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by DG55Capital
#202503 - priceactiontds - weekly update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: 4th consecutive bullish weekly bar but the tails above are getting bigger (weekly chart). The volume is also increasing, which could be a sign of more participants thinking it’s a good time to scale into shorts and out of longs. If there would be a run on oil because macro reason xyz, volume would have been bigger already is what I reckon. Does not matter much though, because bears need to do more before we can turn more bearish. First decent pull-back will be bought, so it will most likely be better to look for longs after a pull-back than to try and pick the top. current market cycle: trading range - on lower time frames it’s also obviously a bull trend key levels: 77 - 81 bull case: Bulls are in full control and want to break above the 2024-04 high 80.03. We are close enough to expect market to get there soon. Problem for the bulls is, this rally is parabolic and unsustainable. The last time we printed 5 consecutive bull bars on the weekly chart was mid of 2023. For now we can’t expect to see bigger bearish price action because bulls have been making money buying every small dip. Invalidation is below 76. bear case: Bears have made the first lower high which now looks like an ugly head & shoulders. I think the odds of this breaking down for a measured move to sub 72 are very low. Much more likely is that bears would exit fast on another push up and try again to keep it below 80. The current lower bull channel line runs through 75ish and it’s reasonable to expect a bigger pull-back over the next 1-2 weeks. Invalidation is above 80. short term: Bullish for 80 and then looking to short for a bigger pull-back down to the bull channel. A strong close above 80 would change my mind. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85. Trade the bull channel until it’s clearly broken again. current swing trade: None chart update: Added potential bear targets.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Crude Oil -Can use the fundamentals to push the strong resitanceHi guys we are going to take a look into CL. The Black Gold has had some interesting fundamental events recently , with the Biden administration imposing a few important and key tarrifs over the Russian exports of OIL. Additionally on a technical preview as we visited this asset a few times, it has broken a few very key support levels, and the price started actually moving in a good direction.Previously we saw the price move sideweays for almost 2 months. Entry: 77.50 Target 1: 78.50 Target 2: 79.50 Target 3. 80.50 As always my friends happy trading! P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my community so you can follow up with me in private!
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by DG55Capital
Elliott Wave View: Oil (CL_F) Impulsive Rally in ProgressShort Term Elliott Wave view in Light Crude Oil (CL_F) suggests cycle from 12.6.2024 low is in progress as an impulse. Up from 12.6.2024 low, wave ((i)) ended at 71.44. Pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 68.42 as the 1 hour chart below shows. The instrument extends higher in wave ((iii)) with subdivision of an impulse in lesser degree. Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 69.94 and wave (ii) ended at 68.59. Wave (iii) higher ended at 75.29 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 72.84. Final leg wave (v) ended at 79.27 and this completed wave ((iii)) in higher degree. From there, the instrument pullback in wave ((iv)) which ended at 77.24. Wave ((v)) higher is in progress and wave (i) of ((v)) should end soon. It should then pullback in wave (ii) to correct the rally from 77.24 low before extending higher again. Near term, as far as pivot at 68.36 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for further upside. Once wave ((v)) is complete, the instrument should correct cycle from 12.6.2024 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before it turns higher again.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Crude Oil Prices Showing StrengthCrude Oil Futures have seen continued strength to the upside after seeing a choppy trading environment for several weeks. Crude Oil has several indicators that can sway the prices to the upside or downside very quickly based on global supply and economic uncertainty, and traders and seeing all of this in action starting off the new year. Tensions in the Middle East may give traders concerns about the future supply of Crude, and with the uncertainty of geopolitics moving forward in the United States after the election there are many factors to consider when trading Crude Oil. Today, prices are higher once again on the March contract and are testing highs from July of 2024. Over the years as the popularity of Crude Oil Futures has grown, there were different sized contracts that enable traders to choose their own sizing options with the mini and micro contracts. These contracts range from the full sized contract at 1,000 barrels, the mini contract at 500 barrels, and the micro contract at 100 barrels giving traders the ability to choose a smaller or larger size based on their own risk tolerance. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/ *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
NYMEX:CLH2025
by CME_Group
Can the HOUSE CAPITALIZE LONG & target MKL $80.00 Per Barrel?NYMEX:CL1! " A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives." -Jackie Robinson As we head into the 2nd trading week of the New Year, I hope everyone has a HIGH SET Goal that they want to achieve. Let's be strategic in our goals and make sure we put forth rightful action that will get us the results we desire. In this sport we play there is no Reward without RISK... So, let's get down to business on what exactly were looking for this week to STRIKE GOLD for the HOUSE to benefit... 'Crude OIL': Confluence Profile 500K (Expectational Order-Flow + PA) 10pt STOP / 50-60pt Target Key info: On average Crude Oil runs for 120pts LONG or SHORT during NY session 5am-2pm PST. Our Playbook: We cut 120 in Half = 60pts as our new GOAL to catch for the DAY (Intra Day) Pillar 1) HTF EOF "Market Direction" In which direction are we headed? Who has the stronger hand? Currently Buyers have the stronger hand on both the Daily & 4Hr TF's. Since the New Year kicked off Oil has been rallying to the upside breaking Supply and Demand HOLDING with strong conviction. So now we know that HTF/LTF Pro Trend is LONG and HTF/LTF Counter Trend is SHORT. With Oil Currently trading inside of the HTF Daily Supply Zone I am going to wait for more data to develop in the PA before I start to build the Confluence Profile 500K (Expectational Order-Flow + PA). Once we get our Confluence Profile to flow in symmetry together; HTF Mitigation w LTF Entry Confirmation / Order Flow Footprint + PA we then will enter our positions INTRA DAY.... Keynote: LTF Pro Trend is LONG & LTF Counter Trend is SHORT.... Either way is Profitable!! Done correctly at the right time & price. I will keep update as more date in the PA develops throughout the week. Remember; "Our Profession is to Manage the downside costs of printing HIGHSIDE returns of $$$ consistently. Done correctly, well Abundance awaits us." -500KTrey
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by TreyHighPwr
Crude Oil LongWTI's price broke through the 200-day MA. In the next few days, we should also see the breakup in the 50-day MA versus the 100-day MA. Energy stocks will benefit from the price swing in Q1 2025. Look at XOM, BKR, CVX The Chinese government's introduction of ultra-long special government bonds to boost infrastructure spending and consumer demand has heightened expectations for increased oil consumption. Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ have continued their production cuts, tightening supply. Saudi Arabia raised the price of its flagship Arab Light crude for February by $0.60 per barrel. The outlook for February 2025 is bullish for oil. We should expect continuing supply constraints. OPEC+ production cuts and sanctions on major oil producers like Iran and Russia are expected to persist, maintaining a tight supply environment. The incoming Trump administration's potential tightening of sanctions on Iran could significantly reduce Iranian crude exports, further constraining supply.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by IrinaTK
Are CL Futures starting a new bull trend in 2025?Crude Oil WTI Nymex Futures NYMEX:CL1! Big Picture: Crude Oil WTI NYMEX Futures Update – January 2025 Crude Oil WTI NYMEX futures are trading higher, with bullish price action evident at the start of 2025. Price has broken above the 2024 Composite Value Area High (CVAH) and is now approaching the Composite Value Area High from the 2022 high, as shown in the chart above. Macroeconomic Outlook From a global perspective, persistent inflation may be supported by elevated commodity prices. Higher crude oil prices, coupled with potential trade wars and tariffs, could drive up costs in major sectors, such as rare earth minerals. In this scenario, we anticipate central banks, including the Federal Reserve, maintaining higher interest rates. We believe the previously expected two rate cuts of 25 basis points each for this year may be reduced to zero. However, this creates a challenging environment for central banks. A combination of sticky inflation, resilient job markets, and low unemployment could lead to a "goldilocks" scenario. Recessionary risks will be increased unless some means of fiscal policy measures provide further support to the US economy. Key Levels to Watch Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan. CVAH: 79.50 Resistance R1: 79.50 – 79.85 Resistance R2: 81.30 – 81.60 Neutral Level: 78.77 CVAH 2024 / Support: 75.00 Support (Yearly Open): 71.85 Scenario 1: Exhausted Buyers, Mean Reversion In this scenario, we anticipate range-bound price action, offering a potential short opportunity if buyers appear exhausted. Price action and volume analysis would need to confirm this. Look for absorption around the neutral zone or below R1/CVAH, with prices failing to push higher. A lower high and seller dominance would confirm a mean reversion short setup. Scenario 2: Breakout Above CVAH A confirmed breakout above CVAH could indicate further bullish price discovery and the potential for a new uptrend. Consolidation above CVAH followed by strong price action would provide a trigger for long positions. However, significant resistance at this level necessitates confirmation via price action and volume analysis before taking action. Scenario 3: Swing Failure at CVAH In this scenario, prices rise above the neutral zone and R1/CVAH, but sellers regain control, pushing prices lower. A swing failure candle with a long wick near the resistance zone would indicate the failure. A subsequent higher low could present a short opportunity for a mean reversion trade. We encourage you to monitor these levels closely and incorporate them into your trade planning. Share your thoughts or insights on these key levels in the comments below.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
10
Investment Opportunity: Long Crude Oil in the Coming Week - Key Insights: The crude oil market is exhibiting a bullish trend, with significant momentum driven by geopolitical factors and seasonal demand. Analyzing current resistance levels indicates a favorable outlook for traders considering long positions, especially with oil prices testing critical thresholds around $78.60 and $79.50. - Price Targets: For next week, we recommend a focus on the following targets: T1 at $80.50 and T2 at $82.00. In terms of stop levels to mitigate risk, set S1 at $76.00 and S2 at $74.00, - Recent Performance: Crude oil has recently gained traction, trading around $78.15 after touching resistance levels between $77 and $80. The market has seen notable developments, including increased momentum from colder weather and geopolitical tensions that have weathered traditional equity performance. - Expert Analysis: Experts suggest that current geopolitical risks, particularly surrounding sanctions on Russia and instability in Iran, are likely to sustain upward pressure on oil prices. Many analysts are optimistic, predicting a potential bullish commodity cycle that could see prices soar significantly in the next few years. - News Impact: Recent sanctions imposed by the Biden administration on Russian oil companies have triggered expectations of a constrained oil supply. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions regarding Iran could further challenge stability in oil production. Colder weather patterns are adding to upward demand pressures, creating a complex but opportunistic market environment for crude oil traders.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CrowdWisdomTrading
Crude Oil breaks and follows projectionAfter the long consolidation time, CL finally broke the Trend-Barrier (TB) and is now on the move to the upside. It's not stupid to aim for the 1/4 line as PTG1. But for sure I would only close a portion of the position, since the upside potential is far higher. And if you don't know how much to bank, just go with 50% of your investment. If it's going higher, you're still participating from the move. If it goes sour, you have already banked 50%. Just create a plan and follow it.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Tr8dingN3rd
A Strategy for Renko ChartsThe first thing that may jump out at you on the chart is that it is not a Renko chart. TradingView does not allow strategies to be posted when on a Renko chart. However, I wanted to publish the following ideas from my journey in creating a trading strategy for a Renko chart. I didn't realize I wouldn't be able to publish it on the chart itself (or anywhere) until after I'd completed the first phase of it. To see this on a Renko chart, you can convert the chart to Renko, set the timeframe to 1 minute and then the blocksize to 20 (for CL1! or WTI) using a close, traditional setting, and no wicks. I had several goals I wanted to achieve when I started building this strategy. Learn PineScript. The best way to learn a new programming language is to have a practical target to reach. Codify some of the ideas I have been putting together over the past several years on trading with Renko charts. Have a way to remove emotions out of entering and exiting trades. TradingView does not allow for strategies to be published on Renko charts due to some of the nuances with the charts that can distort results of tests. However, once you understand some of these scenarios, you can look for them and adjust. As for the strategy, to-date, it is based on three indicators: the Least Squares Moving Average , Donchian Channels , and Linear Regression . I wanted all of the inputs to be configurable like the underlying indicators themselves. As I got into the development and testing of ideas (I started over many different times :D), I realized there were other parameters I wanted be able to configure and added the as I went. The approach (as of now): Create a TV strategy that could be used for back testing The strategy should be well supported on Renko charts with a common setup and configurations The strategy could be applied to Renko charts and be configurable enough to support all types of markets For the Renko charts, I typically go with a static setup. As an example, for CL1! or WTI, I use a blocksize of 0.20 or 20 ticks using the closing price and a traditional configuration. I do not use wicks on the charts. I set the timeframe to 1 minute (this is the length of time needed at the sustained price to print the specific brick). In TV strategies, my understanding is that until the brick prints, the strategy won’t be executed for the strategy. I touch on some of the ramifications later but for now know this is probably one of many reasons strategies won’t be published on Renko charts. For the strategy, I wanted to create something that is reactive. I wanted it to be able to detect patterns or the beginnings of some type of pattern and then look for some type of evolution on the incoming bars. One thing I realized during testing is that having a “lookback” introduced latency. Think of the strategy as a series of or layers of filters. As the strategy moves through the execution process for each bar/brick, the filters become more restrictive and constrained. My goal was to be able to back test ideas that gave me the largest profit factor with a minimum number of trades and drawdown. Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA): This is the first layer of the three filters. J Basically, there is an entry and exit threshold that the LSMA is compared against to determine if there is a change in direction with either a crossover or crossunder. If there is a cross, then the first condition to enter a trade is met. In the strategy, this is the only configuration that is turned on by default. Use the LSMA for Flat Detection : If enabled, will detect if the LSMA has not changed brick over brick. If this condition is detected, it will disable the entry of both longs and short. The rationale being that if flat, the market is in short term consolidation and new entries should not be made. With the LSMA length default set to 5, this rarely happens. Use the LSMA for Full Direction Detection : This enables a couple of additional checks that can influence the order process. Is the LSMA direction cross in sync with the price direction (e.g., if the LSMA is crossing over (up) but the brick direction is red (down), then the two are not in sync and entries should be disabled Is the LSMA, on a crossover (up) greater than the last LSMA high (vice versa for a cross under (down)). This can detect scenarios where price is consolidating but not necessarily making new highs or lows. This will keep trades for triggering during this consolidation. Donchian Channels : The second layer in the filters. The initial setting for this is a length of 5. By default, this layer is disabled. If enabled, then the Basis of the DC is used to filter out trades where the price is positioned contrary to it. If the DC is enabled, to enter a long trade, the close must be above the Basis and for a short, the close must be below the Basis. Otherwise, entries are disabled. Use the Basis for Flat Detection : Like the LSMA, if bar over bar the Basis of the DC turns flat, any trades will be disabled. Like the LSMA, the purpose of this flat detection is for consolidation and to not take trades while the market is consolidating. Use the Basis for Full Direction Detection : If enabled, like the LSMA, enforces alignment of the DC’s Basis and price direction. And, like the LSMA, if the Basis has not taken out the previous high or low, then the entry process is disabled. For both the LSMA and the DC Channel, enabling these last two configs can become restrictive. As you experiment with them with the market of your choice, you can fine tune them to fit your trading / account style. The intent of both flat detection and the current to previous high/low is to filter out conditions that lead to price churn and trading thrash. The indicators up to now have been reactionary to price movement. Regardless of a larger view of direct or bias, an entry is triggered; long or short. What if you want to trade with a bias or at least back test to see how it may influence your trades? What can you use to determine a bias. The method I chose in this strategy is Linear Regression. Linear Regression : The third layer of the filters. This filter is used to determine if the trend is up, down, or flat (transitioning between up and down). Once enabled, trades will only be taken in the direction of the trend (unless in transition). With this filter, you can configure the length and the threshold to detect consolidation. The length will tune how fast a change in direction is detected while the threshold will determine how far from 0 the slope of the regression must be for it to indicate neutral. Additional configurations : Brick Threshold to Pull Rip Cord : Once an entry is made, it can go contrary to your thinking. This setting will let you control how far you are willing for price to drive from original entry contrary to what you were thinking. Close the Position on First Brick: To keep profits close, this will exit any position (long or short) once the first brick contrary to the current position is printed. You will want to experiment with this and back test. Once it does exit, if the position is triggered again in the next several blocks, it will try to enter. Consolidation Length : This config controls the slope threshold in the LR to differentiate from up and down. Again, full disclosure, TradingView does not allow strategies to be published on Renko charts. If you want to experiment with it, you can convert the chart to Renko and configure it as outlined above. Then, you can experiment with various configurations and see what type of results you get. Some things to watch out for: If you apply this to a US stock and focus on the regular session, then there will be gaps at the open that won’t appear as gaps on Renko charts. However, the strategy can try to make it look like you had a great fill on the open (which most likely is not the case). Additional work needs to be done to filter out this specific scenario Limit orders should not be considered in the strategy on a Renko chart because the brick will only be executed when the brick prints. Market orders should only be used and only when the close for the brick prints.
NYMEX:CL1!
by mxb1961
#202502 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Another huge bull surprise last week and we made a higher high above the 2024-10 high 77.38. A measured move target is 78.04 and the high was 77.86. Close is always close enough. I would like to see another try at 78 and another huge rejection for me to short. I do think shorting right now is too early but buying after a 244 point rejection is not good either, since the upside is likely limited. Bulls are still in full control here but the last time we traded above 78 was July, so I have zero interest in buying. Still. Did I miss most of the up move? Yes. Do I care? No. I try to never buy high in trading ranges and every time I can refrain from doing it I practice following my rules and that is much more valuable than catching some of the breakouts. current market cycle: trading range - on lower time frames it’s also obviously a bull trend key levels: 73 - 80 bull case: Bulls have made a higher high above 77, which is obviously bullish. We have a clear bull channel on the daily chart, which is where the problem for the bulls is. They are at so many prior highs and the top of the channel, that buying above 76 is a tough spot and hard to structure a good long trade around it. If you buy 76, your stop has to be 72.6 and that’s 340 ticks. For this to be a 1:1 trade we would have to hit 79.4 and the last time we did was July. It could work but the probability is likely not on your side here. Any long below 75 or closer to 73 would be a very different story and a reasonable trade. 80 is the obvious next target above. Invalidation is below 72.6. bear case: Bears still have not much. We are trading at many prior resistances but until they can generate more selling pressure than one 1h bar, they don’t have anything going for them. I do think the sell spike down to 75.42 was already enough to fulfill the breakout-retest and we could continue up from here. Bears would need a 1h close below 75 to get some arguments on their side but given the current strength of the move, it will probably be another bull flag to break out above again. Invalidation is above 80. outlook last week: short term: Bullish until bears come around. Longing pullbacks is decent until we make lower lows again. Every touch of the 2h 20ema was bought, so keep looking for longs close to it. → Last Sunday we traded 73.96 and now we are at 76.57. Bulls kept at it, decent outlook. short term: Bullish again but buying above 76 is probably not a good idea. I want to get long closer to 73/74 once momentum upwards gets going again. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-02: Still no better medium-long term outlook to write about. The triangle has been going on for so long, it’s highly unlikely that we will break above it. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed bear trend line and added bull channel.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds