Crude OilCrude Oil - US OIL
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves and " A " Corrective Waves
Break of Structure
RSI - Divergence
Bearish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame
Demand Zone
CLG2013 trade ideas
Does our LIS hold? Weekly CL Trade IdeaNYMEX:CL1!
Macro Update:
There are a lot of market moving events taking shape on the macro landscape.
Peace negotiations between warring countries, reciprocal trade tariffs, and a US-Iran nuclear deal.
We need not mention that any of these events may potentially turn market sentiment risk on or risk off. It all depends on how these all unfold.
On the economic front, we have rate decisions from various central banks. Most central banks reiterate cautious cuts and turn hawkish amidst concerns about the rising inflation outlook. Central banks are also pointing towards rising uncertainty on the outlook itself as we mentioned above. It all depends on how events unfold.
WTI Crude Oil Big Picture:
Viewing a weekly full session WTI crude oil chart, we can see 3 weeks of one time framing up on the weekly chart starting Dec 30th, 2024. We then saw a rejection of uptrend and prices reverting to 2024 Value area. We can see four bearish weekly candlesticks from the week starting Jan 20th, 2025. Last week, the price action on the weekly timeframe formed an inverted hammer showing bearish pressure increasing on WTI crude oil. Our key LIS and key bull support show the confluence of multiple market generated levels has held up for the past 3 weeks.
Traders take note that WTI crude oil futures contract has rolled over to April 2025 contract. Symbol: CLJ2025
In addition, DOE WTI inventory numbers will be released on Thursday 11am CT due to US President’s Day on Monday February 17th, 2025.
Key Levels to Watch
Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan.
2025 mcVPOC: 72.82
Feb 2025 mcVAH: 7 2.48
2025 mcVAL: 70.56
Yearly Open/ LIS: 70.52
Key Bull Support/ Confluence Zone: 70.52 - 70.12
Scenario 1: Range bound week ahead
In this scenario we expect range bound price action contained within Feb 2025 micro composite Value Area.
Scenario 2: Risk-off sentiment shift prices below key LIS
In this scenario, we may see a breakdown of our key bull support and Line in Sand. Price moves and stays below yearly open price, providing a possible shift lower towards composite volume point of control (CVPOC).
Micro CME contracts allow for more precise risk management during volatile market conditions. Additionally, you can participate in the CME and TradingView paper trading competition, giving you the opportunity to test your skills in The Leap without risking real money.
Elliott Wave View Crude Oil (CL) 5 Swing Structure Favors HigherShort Term Elliott Wave View in Light Crude Oil (CL) suggests the metal ended cycle from 1.16.2025 high. Decline from 1.16.2025 high unfolded as a 5 waves with wave ((i)) ended at 77.87 and wave ((ii)) ended at 79.44. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 72.38 and wave ((iv)) rally ended at 75.18. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 70.12 which completed wave A in higher degree.
Oil is now looking to correct cycle from 1.16.2025 high in wave B. Internal subdivision of wave B is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave A, wave i ended at 72.07 and pullback in wave ii ended at 70.89. Wave iii higher ended at 73.04 and pullback in wave iv ended at 71.85. Final leg wave v ended at 73.25 which completed wave (i). Due to the 5 swing rally from 2.17.2025, the structure suggests further upside is more likely. Pullback in wave (ii) is in progress to correct cycle from 2.17.2025 low before it resumes higher. Near term, as far as pivot at 70.11 low stays intact, expect dips to find buyers in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
Tariff Tantrums & Rising Inventories Weighing Down on Crude OilOne month into his presidency, Trump has injected fresh uncertainty into oil markets. His rapid-fire policies aimed at boosting production, imposing tariffs, and pushing for conflict resolutions in the Middle East and Russia—are reshaping the energy landscape. His unpredictable and bold approach to trade has left markets on edge.
Bearish sentiment is being fuelled by weak economic indicators, particularly from the U.S. and China. Trump’s policies have added uncertainty, driving price swings.
At the start of the month, Trump imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada (10% on Canadian oil) and 10% on Chinese goods. However, he swiftly delayed tariffs on Mexico and Canada but kept the tariffs on China intact.
In response, China imposed tariffs of 15% on U.S. coal & LNG and 10% on crude oil, autos, and farm equipment, fuelling fears of a broader trade war that could weaken global growth & energy demand.
Trump also tightened U.S. sanctions on Iran’s crude exports and signalled stricter enforcement. While this could reduce supply, his trade policies threaten energy demand, keeping downward pressure on prices.
Further supply risks emerged as Europe ramped up efforts to weaken Russia by targeting its shadow fleet and energy exports.
Meanwhile, Trump’s push for peace in Ukraine and the Middle East has shown progress, lowering the geopolitical risk premium on crude.
However, fresh supply concerns arose after a drone attack on a pipeline belonging to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium in Russia, a key export route for Kazakhstan’s crude, disrupted shipments by 30% to 40%.
Repairs are expected to take months, adding to supply fears. Ukraine also escalated drone strikes on Russian refineries, intensifying concerns over Russian crude flows already constrained by Western sanctions.
Trump’s actions have had mixed effects, supporting oil prices in some cases while pressuring them in others. Combined with an oversupplied market, this has kept the overall outlook bearish, though uncertainty and short-term volatility persist.
U.S. CRUDE INVENTORIES CLIMB; EIA PROJECTS LOWER WTI PRICES FOR 2025-2026
Another factor weighing on WTI prices is the steady rise in crude inventories, following seasonal trends. Stockpile rises have exceeded analyst forecasts for four consecutive weeks.
Source: EIA and Investing.com
U.S. energy firms have increased crude stockpiles for four consecutive weeks, the longest streak since April 2024.
The EIA’s latest Short–Term Energy Outlook report ( STEO report ) reinforced a bearish outlook for WTI prices. It kept its 2025 and 2026 forecasts unchanged, with a slight 1.8% upward revision for Q1 2025. This raised the full-year 2025 estimate by 0.4% to USD 70.62/b, while the 2026 projection remained steady at USD 62.46/b.
Source: EIA STEO
The agency attributes the Q1 2025 price uptick to OPEC+ production cuts, which are expected to reduce global oil inventories by 0.5 million bpd. However, it kept price forecasts steady for the rest of 2025 and 2026, anticipating a supply increase from April 2025.
The EIA projects global oil inventories to rise by 0.9 million bpd in H2 2025 and 1.0 million bpd in 2026, driven by higher output and sluggish demand growth.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS INDICATE PERSISTENT BEARISH TREND
WTI appeared set for its first weekly gain in five weeks for the week ending 21/Feb, but bearish U.S. economic data offset support from supply disruptions in Russia.
The MACD indicator signals a renewed bearish trend, showing momentum has turned downward again after briefly easing.
The RSI hovers near the midpoint at 41.79, below its moving average of 44.34, signalling a shift toward a renewed bearish trend.
Source: TradingView
Furthermore, TradingView’s technical analysis dashboard reinforces a strong bearish trend.
COMMITMENT OF TRADERS
For the week ending 11/Feb, managed money’s net long positions in WTI crude oil (futures & options) dropped 13% WoW, marking a third weekly decline. Short positions surged 33% to 76,375 lots, while long positions inched up 0.3% to 198,612 lots.
Source: CME QuikStrike
Short positions have increased week-on-week since 28/Jan, highlighting a growing bearish sentiment among managed money.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
Trump’s energy, trade, and foreign policies have heightened uncertainty in oil markets, creating a push-pull effect on prices.
However, the persistent supply-demand imbalance remains. Push for higher U.S. oil output and efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict will add further pressure on WTI prices by erasing war-risk premium.
While short-term price spikes and volatility are more likely, they are unlikely to alter market dynamics without a significant recovery in global oil demand.
Portfolio managers and traders can express a bearish view on WTI prices through CME Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures. These contracts provide the same crude oil exposure as standard WTI futures but at 1/10th the size, offering greater accessibility and more precise hedging options.
This paper posits a short position in CME Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (Apr 2025) expiring on 19/Mar (MCLJ2025) with the following trade setup:
• Entry: 71.50/barrel
• Target: 67.50/barrel
• Stop: 74/barrel
• P&L at Target (per lot): +400 ((71.50 – 67.50) x 100)
• P&L at Stop (per lot): -250 ((71.50 – 74.00) x 100)
• Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.6x
CME Group lists a raft of products covering a range of asset classes more accessible while also enabling granular hedging for portfolio managers.
Investors can learn more about how to access these micro products by visiting CME Micro Products page on CME portal to discover micro-sized contracts to gain macro exposures.
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The competition lasts another 4 days. Please join the 60,000 others who are actively honing their trading skills using virtual money. Click here to learn more.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme .
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Is CL looking bearish? Short below LIS/Yearly Open?NYMEX:CL1!
Macro update:
Will we see another bullish leg like Jan 2025? Or does crude oil have room to move further lower and resume its downtrend after putting in the high of the year?
In our opinion, most headlines since the new US administration have already been priced in by market participants.
Crude oil fundamentals—encompassing supply, production, and demand outlook—are likely to influence prices more significantly than headline news. Our analysis indicates that the market has rebalanced, trading above the Composite Volume Point of Control (CVPOC) at $68.45 per barrel, as derived from our 2022 anchored Composite Volume profile. Furthermore, the 2025 Volume profile is exhibiting a “b”-shaped formation, signaling a move toward balance in its lower range.
From a market auction perspective, two key price ranges are established:
Q4 2024 Lower Distribution: Approximately $65–$70, indicating a balanced market.
Q1 2025 Value Area: Approximately $70–$75, also reflecting balance.
In our analysis, it’s essential to adopt a broader view by examining higher timeframe levels to stay aligned with these key market levels. While intraday or intrawork trends may display bearish or bullish momentum, the overall market auction framework suggests further consolidation within these ranges—unless new developments significantly alter the crude oil fundamentals or breaking headlines emerge that have yet to be priced in.
Key Levels to Watch
Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan.
Jan 2024 CVPOC and mCVPOC Q4 2024 confluence: 68.45 - 68.25
Key Bull Support/LIS: 69.90 - 70.50
Feb 2025 VAL: 70.80
2025 mCVPOC: 72.82
Feb 2025 VAH: 72.70
mCVAH/Jan 2025 mid: 74.96 - 74.80
Scenario 1:
Price gets above key support to further consolidate within Feb 2025 Value Area
Scenario 2:
Intraday bullish price action with higher lows that fails to gain momentum above the 2025 VPOC.
Scenario 3:
Price holds below Yearly Open and LIS key support. A bearish head and shoulders pattern develops to push prices lower to test CVPOC 2022.
Micro CME contracts allow for more precise risk management during volatile market conditions. Additionally, you can participate in the CME and TradingView paper trading competition, giving you the opportunity to test your skills in The Leap without risking real money.
Crude Eyes Bullish Reversal - Descending Trendline🚨 Crude Oil (MCX) 4 HOUR Chart Analysis 🚨
🔹 Bullish Indicators Identified: Breakout from a descending trendline, signaling potential trend reversal.
Price reclaiming the 55 EMA (6211) as a key resistance level.
🔹 Expanding Demand Zone: The breakout structure suggests a shift in market sentiment, increasing the probability of bullish continuation.
🔹 Target Levels: Watching for price movement towards the 6310 zone (Bearish OB).
T1 - 6250
T2 - 6300
T3 - 6350
🔹 Breakout Confirmation: A strong move above 6180 - 6200 will validate the bullish breakout.
🔹 Risk Management: Ensure proper stop-loss placement to manage risk effectively.
📈 Stay alert for confirmation & volume surge! 🚀
🔹 Disclaimer: This is a technical analysis based on available data and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risk; past performance is not indicative of future results.
❤️ If this helps, please like the post!
Crude Oil Bearish Setup Crude oil is showing signs of potential downside movement. After a recent rally, price is facing strong resistance near $71.60-$72.65, where sellers are stepping in.
🔻 Key Observations:
1️⃣ Price previously broke out of a descending channel but failed to gain strong bullish momentum.
2️⃣ A lower high is forming, indicating that buyers are losing control.
3️⃣ There’s a strong support zone around $70.14-$70.89, which could be the next target.
4️⃣ A potential short opportunity is forming, with an entry near the current price and a stop above resistance.
Take Profit 1 - 70.89
Take Profit 2 - 70.14
Stop Loss - 72.65
WTI - Bulls in action!Hi All! A day off is a good time for reflection.
Oil Price Outlook: Potential Fifth Wave Impulse Up
There is a high probability that oil prices, having broken through the upper boundary of the regression channel, may continue their upward movement with a target in the 81.20–84.00 range. This could be the fifth wave of an upward impulse.
Wave Structure Analysis:
✅ Wave 1 – Leading diagonal
✅ Wave 2 – Double zigzag
✅ Wave 3 – Strong upward movement
✅ Wave 4 – Deep correction as a single zigzag, reaching the maximum possible level of 71.50
‼️ Further decline invalidates this scenario.
Technical Confirmation:
🔹 Bullish divergence is clearly visible on both the H1 and H4 charts.
🔹 AO and RSI indicators are turning upwards while the price continued to decline, indicating a trend reversal.
🔹 The price has not fallen below 71.50, where bulls have established strong support.
Fundamental Catalyst:
📢 Recent news about tariff increases, including on goods from Canada (such as oil), could be a bullish driver for oil prices.
Key Targets:
✅ First target: 77.36
✅ Local high: 81.00
✅ Major resistance level: 84.00
#CrudeOil #WTI #Brent #Trading #ElliottWaves #TechnicalAnalysis #Forex #Commodities #PriceAction #MarketUpdate #OilPrices
Levels to consider for Crude oil Futures CL1!On this video i discuss what I think is the next long/short to consider and illustrate how not to get caught up in the noise of low probability setups .
Currently we are trading inside of a range between the POC and the VAH .
I look back on previous highs in the chart and how we reacted at those levels and what I potentially see looking forward . My bias overall is expecting more downside but I dont marry that one bias and simply look at the PA from both sides with a focus on having a plan in the event of a move up or Down .
[Positional] Crude Buy BetSL at day's low. High chance of triggering.
Note -
One of the best forms of Price Action is to not try to predict at all. Instead of that, ACT on the price. So, this chart tells at "where" to act in "what direction. Unless it triggers, like, let's say the candle doesn't break the level which says "Buy if it breaks", You should not buy at all.
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I use shorthands for my trades.
"Positional" - means You can carry these positions and I do not see sharp volatility ahead. (I tally upcoming events and many small kinds of stuff to my own tiny capacity.)
"Intraday" -means You must close this position at any cost by the end of the day.
"Theta" , "Bounce" , "3BB" or "Entropy" - My own systems.
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I won't personally follow any rules. If I "think" (It is never gut feel. It is always some reason.) the trade is wrong, I may take reverse trade. I may carry forward an intraday position. What is meant here - You shouldn't follow me because I may miss updating. You should follow the system I share.
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Like -
Always follow a stop loss.
In the case of Intraday trades, it is mostly the "Day's High".
In the case of Positional trades, it is mostly the previous swings.
I do not use Stop Loss most of the time. But I manage my risk with options as I do most of the trades using derivatives
WTI crude oil shows the potential for a bounceThis is a bit of a scrappy chart, but I still see the potential for a cheeky bounce.
WTI crude oil is trying to snap a 4-week losing streak, by stalling around a 50% retracement level. Last week's candle was an inverted hammer, and the previous two weeks have both closed above the 50% level.
A bullish divergence formed on the daily RSI (2) ahead price action finding support at the 200-day SMA and 200-day EMA.
From here, the bias remains bullish while prices hold above last week's low. Bulls could seek dips towards the 200-day MAs, with a near-term upside target of $72. A break above which brings $74 into focus, near the monthly pivot point.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
OilCrude Oil
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves
Break of Structure
Change in Characteristics
Falling Wedge in Short Time Frame
Demand Zone
Crude Oil update in weekly chartThere is nothing I can add to my last published idea of CL1 except the pattern of y. It make sense that wave y makes a flat instead of zigzag which I guessed. Anyway, there is no matter and I am waiting for a reliable correction.
Thanks
The Market Matrix - Gold, DXY, SP500 & Crude Oil Feb 16 2025This weeks edition of the market matrix.
How I'm looking to participate in the Gold, DXY, SP500 & Crude Oil markets this week.
I throw in some COT analysis as well.
Crude Oil - Ichimoku Theories + Price Action ConceptsNYMEX:CL1!
Combining your Ichimoku strategy, with market structure orderblocks, could provide you with support & resistance levels, for your Ichimoku trend bias.
- Here is Crude Oil futures, on a 4H timeframe
- Analyze how the orderblocks, provide key level resistance, for your short positions
CL1!: Buy ideaOn CL1 we would have a high probability of having an upward trend given the configuration on the chart. Indeed, we are in a bearish channel situation with a succession of numerous red candles accompanied by numerous red volumes.
To enter a position, you must wait until the resistance line and the vwap indicator are broken forcefully by a large green candle and followed by a large green volume. Therefore, you can enter a position as soon as the second green candle appears.
Recap: CL and ES Weekly Plan analysis & Key LevelsNYMEX:CL1!
CME_MINI:ES1!
In this trading trading view blog we will refer to our February 3, 2025, weekly trading plans.
Our main idea for ES futures was to get long above yearly open, also our key LIS (Line in Sand). And our main idea for CL futures was to stay short below February monthly open targeting mcVAL and then waiting for an opportunity to get long at our key bullish support zone.
Below we explain our thoughts behind these ideas and how we choose our key levels and the process to create our plan.
ES Trade Idea: Key Levels and Strategies Amid Macro Uncertainty :
From our ES trade plan, scenario 1 played out. The line in sand for long trades was Key LIS/Yearly open. Click on the link above to see how this played out!
Our key levels for the trade idea noted in the blog were:
(mcVAH) micro composite value area high: 6,134.25
Key LIS/Yearly Open: 5,949.25
(mcVAL) micro composite value area low: 5,914.25
(CVAH) Composite Value Area High: 5,924
mcVAH held as an area of initial resistance. Our neutral zone at 6,068.25 - 6,051.50 acted as a zone for pullback after initial push higher. The remaining week was choppy with some days more volatile and playing out per our scenario 1 in our trading plan.
CL Trade Idea: Key Levels & Strategies Amid Volatility:
From our CL trade plan, scenario 1 also played out.
Why we favored this as scenario 1 was due to rejection confirmed at January 2025 mid range. The provided a good short opportunity below Jan 2025 mid or February monthly open towards our key levels as specified in the trading plan. We mentioned the following key levels in last week’s plan.
Micro Composite Value Area High (mCVAH) January 2025: 76.00
January 2025 mid- range: 74.96
February Monthly Open: 74.14
Micro Composite Value Area Low (mCVAL) January 2025: 71.82
Yearly Open: 70.52
2024 Mid- Range: 70.40
mCVAL provided a good target for short trades, while Yearly open and 2024 Mid-range confluence at our key bull support provided a good spot to initiate the long trade idea.
Following a consistent process can help traders stick to a trading approach that can help them achieve consistency. Losses are an inherent part of trading, executing the trade plan also involves weighing which scenario will play out on the hard right edge in real- time. However, our market analysis blogs are aimed to educate traders, showing whatever their methodology or approach, consistency in preparation and having a roadmap of important price levels will help them distinguish between getting caught in noise versus important areas to engage with markets.
Markets Seeing Mixed ResultsMarkets were seeing mixed results today with US Equity prices slightly lower along with Crude Oil and Gold. Traders saw CPI come in better than expected while the Crude Inventories report came in higher than expected. The Crude Market specifically has had a volatile beginning to 2025 with a lot of the recent price action hovering around the 200-day moving average.
The initial jump in prices to the recent January 15th high came after breaking through the 200-day moving average and the volatility around that level has come back this week. Crude Oil has several fundamental factors that can affect the price drastically, including global tensions and supply and demand, which is why the CME offers different sized products for Crude Oil to help traders manage their risk ranging from the full size to the micro contract.
For the rest of the week, traders will be looking at the jobless claims number along with the PPI for an indication on inflation moving forward.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CL1! DEAD-CAT BOUNCE?!? Looking at CL1!, we are observing a potential bullish continuation setup following a solid price action pullback. The market has recently retraced significantly, offering a strong buying opportunity if the price holds above this level.
RISING WEDGE PATTERN IN CRUDEOILCrude Oil (MCX) 1HR Chart Analysis
🔹 Expected Price Movement: Price is forming a rising wedge pattern, indicating a potential short-term upmove before a breakdown.
🔹 Bullish Push First: Expecting price to test the 6343 - 6380 zone before showing weakness. A temporary breakout could occur before reversal.
🔹 Bearish Breakdown Target: If the price fails to hold, a breakdown below 6306 could trigger a drop toward 6260, confirming the wedge breakdown.
🔹 EMA & Volume Analysis: The 55 EMA (6287) acts as dynamic support, but declining momentum and volume suggest a possible exhaustion near resistance.
🔹 Risk Management: Traders should monitor price action near resistance and use stop-loss protection to manage volatility.
📌 Disclaimer: This is a technical analysis based on provided data and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
❤️ If this analysis helps, please like the post! 🚀
Positional View - MCX Crude oilAs shown in the attached chart, "Astra India Indicator" Positional Predictions worked perfectly once again. Now MCX Crude Oil having Resistance of 6100 (1 hour chart) and need to close a candle in green above that level (hourly basis) to shift in BULLISH mode otherwise it is BEARISH for the next few days.
Disclaimer:- All the shared views are for educational purposes only. We provide Technical Indicators only for educational purposes. As we are not SEBI registered, there will be no claim rights reserved. Please consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
CRUDE - WEEKLY SUMMARY 17.2-21.2 / FORECAST🛢 CRUDE – 12th week of the base cycle (28 weeks), mature 1st phase. Holding the short position from the February 3 extreme forecast. The first phase of the base cycle is not yet complete but is very mature. Crude is pressing against strong support at 69.80 on the April futures contract, which must either be broken or eroded. I believe the maturity of the 1st phase in this context is not coincidental.
⚠️ I maintain my bearish stance, which I explained in my crude oil post from summer 2024. Next pivot forecast for crude: February 24. Next extreme forecast: March 3.
MICRO CRUDE OIL - BULLISH OR BEARISH INCOMING ACTION?Crude Oil looking to breakout this week. Downside or upside? Let's hear your thoughts.
