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Shopify Inc.

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SHOP trade ideas

$SHOP’S Q4 2024—E-COMMERCE KING OR OVERHYPED HUSTLE?NYSE:SHOP ’S Q4 2024—E-COMMERCE KING OR OVERHYPED HUSTLE? (1/9) Hey Tradingview crew! Shopify’s Q4 2024 is dropping jaws 📈🔥! $2.81B in revenue—31% YoY blast—$94.5B GMV, and a fat cash flow flex. Is NYSE:SHOP the champ or just flexing? Let’s rip it open! 🚀 (2/9) – REVENUE & EARNINGS BLOWOUT • Q4 Revenue: $2.81B, +31% YoY—smoked $2.73B est. 💥 • Subscription: $666M, +27% • Merchant Solutions: $2.15B, +33% • EPS: $0.44, edged $0.43 est. 📊 • FCF: $611M, 22% margin— GETTEX:25M over est. NYSE:SHOP ’s cash machine is humming! (3/9) – BIG WINS • GMV: $94.5B, +26%—fastest since ‘21 🚗 • Full Year: $8.88B revenue, +25.78% 🌍 • 3-Month Trials: New twist for Q1 ‘25 subs ✅ • Enterprise: 114 deals in 10 quarters—B2B up 132%! X is buzzing— NYSE:SHOP ’s scaling like a beast! (4/9) – SECTOR SMACKDOWN • Market Cap: ~$151.5B, P/E 81, P/S 14.3 🌟 • Vs. NASDAQ:BIGC : Lagging, $CRM/ NASDAQ:ADBE : Broader focus • NYSE:SHOP ’s 31% growth smokes peers—$94.5B GMV flexes Pricey, but is it a steal for this hustle? X debates! (5/9) – RISKS TO DODGE • Amazon & WooCommerce: Claws out for NYSE:SHOP ’s turf 📉 • Economy: Slowdown could choke GMV ⚠️ • Tariffs: Duty hikes loom— NYSE:SHOP ’s got tools, but ouch! • Costs: Intern army in ‘25—cash burn risk? X says watch out—trouble’s lurking! (6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS • Revenue: 31% YoY—$2.81B Q4 fury 🌟 • FCF: 22% Q4 margin, 18% ‘24 🔍 • Global: 33% GMV growth, EMEA +37% 🚦 NYSE:SHOP ’s an e-commerce titan—X can’t look away! (7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES • Weaknesses: High P/E 81, merchant reliance 💸 • Opportunities: Enterprise boom, AI tools, price hikes 🌍 Can NYSE:SHOP turn hype into gold? X wants to know! (8/9) – NYSE:SHOP ’s Q4 is fire—where’s it headed? 1️⃣ Bullish—$151.5B king keeps slaying 2️⃣ Neutral—Growth’s hot, but risks bite 3️⃣ Bearish—Valuation’s a trap, crash incoming Vote now—let’s brawl it out! 🗳️👇 (9/9) – FINAL BLAST NYSE:SHOP ’s Q4 is a $2.81B thunderclap—GMV soaring, cash flowing 🌍. But competition and costs lurk. Undervalued rocket or overhyped bubble?
NYSE:SHOPLong
by DCAChampion
4
2/10/25 - $shop - Just too expensive ST to play ST. prefer <$1002/10/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:SHOP Just too expensive ST to play ST... prefer lower entry - as you guys see from prior comments (on this name and others), i tend to only act on extremes or where valuation is much more "obvious" - while i let go the stock too soon on the last print, it still wasn't "easy money" as the saying goes - so here's the logic on this q that keeps me sidelines 1/ we all know consumer, esp the emerging brands have had great 4Q's and this should be v +ve tailwind for SHOP 2/ at the same time, this CEO strikes me as a realistic guy, not the powder-nose-energy as PLTR's, which is to say many consumer brands have been offering "unclear yet what next year brings" sort of speech 3/ guidance usually always matters more than result (bc it's fwd looking and this is what stocks discount), but i think especially in environment where agent orange is still "fighting" tariff wars and there's uncertainty. this is all to say, the smaller brands are probably even less prepared than larger ones, and probably v china-mfg focused and so this disproportionately affects NYSE:SHOP 's customer 4/ it's not like the stock is cheap. it's one of these things where... if runs... i'd probably not want to chase it (if i didn't own it, which i don't) and if i did own it, i'd probably cut it. and if it dips, the question would be "how much" before i'd buy it - even a 10% or 15% dip probably wouldn't be enough to get me in the pool bc it would need to be a small position and at this stage in the "rally" (tape), i just don't like small positions clogging up my PnL. half pregnant. 5/ so if i "loved" the stock and had LT conviction (i'm maybe mostly there, but i like a lot of other stuff at the moment... e.g i've written extensively about NASDAQ:NXT , NYSE:UBER , CRYPTOCAP:BTC , $tsm...)... i'd be interested say maybe sub $100 to begin toe'ing in. i'd get much bigger on a final tariff sell off that sends the market into any reasonable correction (which we haven't had). again, at that pt i'd probably bite more on NYSE:UBER and names that are less tariff exposed that have been showing strength at better valuations. just for context, NYSE:UBER has similar EBITDA mgns as NYSE:SHOP , grows just as fast and produces nearly 4x as much FCF. so yeah. and i'd consider it an equally strong "platform moat". so there's that. i'm sidelines. rooting for you guys, but not drinking the market's kool aid. 40% cash and i like what i like. and the opportunity cost needs to be better than stacking more of what i like. this doesn't check that box, just yet. V
NYSE:SHOP
by VROCKSTAR
Shopify (SHOP) AnalysisCompany Overview: Shopify NYSE:SHOP is a leading e-commerce platform that continues to grow by expanding into AI-driven solutions and fulfillment services, aiming to optimize merchant growth. Shopify is positioning itself as a major player in the e-commerce ecosystem, particularly with Shopify Plus, which is gaining momentum among large retailers. Key Catalysts: AI-Powered Tools for Merchants 🤖 Shopify is integrating AI-driven solutions to enhance marketing, inventory management, and checkout optimization, which improves merchant retention and adoption. Enterprise Growth 📈 Shopify Plus is experiencing strong adoption among larger retailers, helping diversify revenue and reduce the company's reliance on small businesses. This supports more stable growth. Long-Term E-commerce Growth 🌐 With e-commerce projected to grow at a 9.5% CAGR through 2030, Shopify holds a 10% market share in the U.S., positioning it for long-term growth in an expanding digital marketplace. Financial Strength 💰 Free cash flow margin rose to 19%, underscoring Shopify’s robust financial health and ability to reinvest in future growth initiatives. Investment Outlook: Bullish Case: We are bullish on SHOP above the $102.00-$105.00 range, driven by AI expansion, growing enterprise adoption, and strong cash flow. Upside Potential: Our price target is $170.00-$172.00, reflecting the company’s dominance in e-commerce and its ongoing innovations. 📢 Shopify—Shaping the Future of E-Commerce and AI. #Ecommerce #AIExpansion #SHOP
NYSE:SHOPLong
by Richtv_official
PLR (Path of Least Resistance) Strategy Explanation - $SHOPHi guys this is a follow up to a post I have just published about my trading idea on shorting NYSE:SHOP , It really doesn't matter if you want to short the market or long the market as it works either way, but for the sake of the example I'll take a 6 months period from the Shopify chart following earnings to better explain you my strategy... This right here is the NYSE:SHOP chart from approx. Jan/2024 to end of Aug/2024, 2 Earnings have been announced, both having great positive surprises, but regardless of the positive surprise (typically bullish indicator), the stock fell of 45%+. Let's add the earnings dates to the chart so that you can better visualize them: What you care about in this image is the earnings dates lined out, as you can see the surprise was positive yet both fell more than 10% in just a day, that I will take as the upcoming trend for at least the time being, till the next earning is announced (so, if for example the 13/Feb earning ended up being bearish, my overview on the market till at least the next earning on 8/May, will be bearish, so all of the trades I will take will be shorts). Now I will line out the trend and the BoSs (breaks of structure) just to better visualize the trend: As you can see the Earning date candles signed the beginning of a down trend twice, pre-announced by the Earning candle itself. The entry strategy is now simple, the idea behind it is to "follow the path of least resistance".. by that I mean that, if your bias is bullish, who enter on candles that are of the opposite direction to the one you are heading to? - Sure you might say that it is to get better entries as ofc, on a short bias, higher sale points = better profits, but the goal here is not maximizing profits, but raising the odds exponentially so that you can take surer trades. I've tested this strategy from Feb/2021 and so far the win rate is 95.6% (123 out of 136 trades profited . The way the entries are spread is this: Basically every time a bearish candle - that closes lower than the previous bearish candle did - is created, a short position of 1% of total equity is generated. The period begins from the beginning of the current earnings season, and closes the day before the next earnings season as it works within a 3 months frame. Each entry HAS to be the lowest bearish candle of the period, example: Only these candles marked in blue count as entries for short positions as their close is lower of more than 0.5% than the previous one, The pink ones are higher than the lowest up to that point, so they do not count as entries as they are technically part of a pullback that is moving in the opposite direction where you are heading. So, going back to the entries, we enter on the close of the lowest bearish candle close up to that point. For safety, we trail the stop loss to the previous high, this is where well defined trend lines come handy: The thick black line is the trend line, and as new lows are broken, I mark those as BoS (break of structure) and until a new one is created, the SL will go to the previous high, and so it goes. (viceversa for buys). We then proceed to target the FVGs left behind by previous quarters: As you can see there are massive gaps in the chart that we will target and identify as FVGs (Fair Value Gaps) and set the TP at the close (lowest point) of the fair value gap. Now comes in your exit strategy... There really are 3 ways that you can tackle this: 1- You set up TP to the lowest FVG of the series (if there are multiple like in this case) 2- You set up TP to the first FVG still open during the quarter following the Earnings Period 3- You tackle both TPs and take each FVG as a partial close to the position (example: if there are 2 FVGs you take out 50% of the position on the first and 50% on the last). But what to do if your positions didn't reach TP (FVG close) before the next Earning or there is no FVG to begin with??? - In the case the TP you have marked out at the close of the FVG didn't reach, you'll proceed to close the position 1 day before the next Earnings is coming, unless your conviction that the FVG will fill in is so high, then you can let those run at your own risk: - In the case in which a FVG is not present then you'll target the previous High (in case of a buy) or Low (in case of a sell) as your TP, utilize the previous low (in case of buy) or previous high (in case of sell) as SL and just let it run: as you can see the 4 trades were all profitable, made little money but sure money in just 15 days Unless I forget anything, this right here, is my strategy. Simple, straight forward, high success rate and doesn't leave anything up to the case. If you have any questions PLEASE leave a comment below and I'll do my best to reply in time ;)
NYSE:SHOPEducation
by BancoMatt
1
$SHOP short idea (once again) - In advance of Earnings Hi everyone, I'm once again back to short NYSE:SHOP .. It is not because I don't believe in the company, because I really do, but just like the first time, I am targeting massive FVGs made by huge gaps in the chart as TPs, and utilizing an improved version of the first pattern of Earnings. Just to summarise it so that everyone can understand it without having to go back to the first published idea, I've noticed how the Shopify stock tends to follow a certain pattern of buys and sells regardless of the results of Earnings.. now, I don't know if this is caused by buy backs or internal company stock operations or some other cause, but I've simply seen how it tends to alternate between buy and sell, and when, for example, for 2 earnings in a row a buy happens (the stocks trends up) then it is followed by an equal amount of sells (so 2 down trends). Now.... could this just be odds and for the last 4 years this was just randomized and ended up doing exactly this? Idk maybe, but I'm not a genius in a lamp, so I'm speculating. All I know is that: - there are 2 massive gaps in the chart, worse than the last time, - price is currently struggling to head higher (perhaps just waiting for Earnings to choose direction), - we have just terminated one of those double down events where 2 selling earnings happened and right after 2 buy earnings happened, Now... there are 2 ways to approach this, and these are the following: 1- The first method is to try and "predict" the top of the market by selling 3 days before of earnings just like the first time and hope for the down trend call to be true; (something like this ) 2- Actually wait till earnings day comes and wait for the 1d candle of the earnings day itself to close and tell if it was either a bullish or a bearish one and from the next day, start either buying or selling depending on the trend. (something like this ) If you choose the latter, then you don't really have to worry about "predicting" the market and all you got to do is develop a entry strategy, you could either buy the dip/sell the top (depending on the trend of the earnings' candle) so that you can get the lowest entries, or you could just enter on each candle that moves the direction of the trend you are following (so for example if the trend is bullish, enter only on bullish candles close to follow your bias). I'll post a follow up of the last entry option as I have developed a entry strategy to do just that, with the help of my friend @D499 who condensed it into an indicator (as I can't code). I'll post comments to this post so that I can keep up with how things proceed and perhaps if the second scenario takes place I'll Live follow up so that all of you can see the idea. Reminder, it's just an idea ;)
NYSE:SHOPShort
by BancoMatt
1
Sideways trend reveals Dark Pool Buy Zone and Pro Trader NudgesSideways trends are more common in the past several years than they were in the past. This is due to the dominance of Dark Pools and how they use TWAPs to ping a penny spread while in accumulation mode. Once Dark Pools have all the shares of stock they have determined to buy based on Quantitative Analysis using some AI, then the Professional Independent Traders who were once floor traders take over, using a technique I call "the nudge" the nudge is always a very small penny spread candle that triggers the HFTs to gap or run a stock. As the stock starts moving up VWAP orders of Smaller Funds with less than 3 billion in assets under management start buying the stock. VWAP drives volume and price upward. HFTs triggers usually, not always cause a big gap up that is not necessarily a breakaway gap. In this instance, it is a running gap. If the earnings report new triggers HFTs to gap this stock again, then an island gap will form. This is a high probability for this stock as it has many previous island gaps. Trends tend to repeat.
NYSE:SHOPLong
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Shopify (SHOP): Revolutionizing E-Commerce SolutionsShopify Inc. (SHOP) is a leading e-commerce platform that empowers businesses of all sizes to create and manage their online stores. From entrepreneurs starting out to large enterprises, Shopify provides tools for building websites, processing payments, and managing inventory. The company’s growth is fueled by the global shift toward online shopping and its innovative features like customizable themes, payment solutions, and marketing tools. SHOP recently showed a confirmation bar with increasing volume, signaling strong momentum as the price moved into the momentum zone (price above .236). This indicates potential for continued upward movement. A trailing stop can be set at the Fibonacci 0.236 level using the Fibonacci snap tool to lock in gains while staying in the trade.
NYSE:SHOPLong
by traderspro_charts
SHOP Go Long! Will it break out this time?Recently SHOP has retraced and held the 50% Fib level and has been trading within a channel where it is about at the mid point of it. The King Trading Momentum Strategy yesterday issued a buy signal. This strategy combines the 5 EMA crossing above the 13 EMA, RSI strength, favorable momentum as measured by ADX plus evaluating recent volume changes. It has been forming a bull flag on the hourly and pre-market suggests this may be ready to break out. I followed the signal and bought a half position, looking to protect the trade at take-profit of 4%. During backtest this proved to be an optimum area and a stop-loss of 3% is warranted. SHOP and over 100 equities are built into this script. If trade protects at 4%, a trailing stop-loss of 2% will be adhered to in order to lock in as much profit as possible if this stock breaks out of the descending channel! I'm thinking its not too late for me to add to this position given typical morning volatility.
NYSE:SHOPLong
by KingTrading999
5
Build Your Position: Consider Going LONG on Shopify Next Week - Key Insights: Shopify is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing positive retail sentiment and an expected boost from the holiday shopping season. Analysts suggest that the stock might be oversold, with a potential rebound anticipated as user adoption and retention grow. Forthcoming earnings on February 11 could provide further clarity on the company’s growth trajectory, making it a strategic point for traders to evaluate long positions. - Price Targets: - Next week targets: - T1: $110 - T2: $115 - Stop levels: - S1: $93.50 - S2: $90 - Recent Performance: Shopify has seen increased activity in its stock as the retail sector benefits from consumer spending trends. Observers note a steady rise in retail sales, signaling robust market dynamics favoring e-commerce platforms like Shopify. - Expert Analysis: Analysts remain cautiously optimistic about Shopify, highlighting potential for growth ahead of the upcoming earnings report. The general sentiment leans towards a favorable outlook, underpinned by positive shifts in online shopping that support long-term value for the company. - News Impact: The upcoming earnings release on February 11 is crucial for Shopify. Investors are eager to see how the company aims to capitalize on strong holiday spending amidst improving economic conditions, as any news could influence stock performance significantly.
NYSE:SHOPLong
by CrowdWisdomTrading
Shopify Inc | SHOP & AIShopify stock has seen sideways momentum for the last few weeks despite posting good results in the recent quarter. One of the reasons is the bull run in early 2023 due to which the stock has seen over 60% jump in year-to-date. Shopify has been able to reignite revenue growth in the last few quarters and there are strong tailwinds that can help the company improve its topline. At the same time, Shopify has been able to improve the conversion of Gross Merchandise Value or GMV into revenue due to better services. Shopify’s GMV has increased 11x between the last quarter of 2016 and the last quarter of 2022. During this time, Shopify’s quarterly revenue base has increased from $130 million to $1.7 billion or 13x. Shopify’s GMV for 2022 was $195 billion and rapid growth in this key metric should help the company improve monetization. The company has also undertaken some cost-cutting which is having a positive impact on the bottom line. Analysts have forecasted Shopify’s EPS at $1 for fiscal 2025 which means that the stock is trading 60 times the EPS estimate of 2025. However, better monetization and focus on cost optimization could help the company deliver good EPS growth in the next few quarters. The PS ratio is also at 12 which is significantly lower than the pre-pandemic years. Shopify stock can deliver good returns in the long term as the company adds new services and improves its GMV growth trajectory. Shopify reported a GMV of $5.5 billion in December 2016 quarter. This has increased to $60 billion in the recent December 2022 quarter. Hence, Shopify’s GMV has increased to 11 times within the last seven years. On the other hand, Shopify’s revenue during the December quarter has increased by 13 times, from $130 million to $1.7 billion. This growth trend shows that the company is able to convert more GMV into actual revenue. One of the main reasons behind this trend is that Shopify is adding new services and it can charge customers a higher commission for these services. Shopify’s GMV for 2022 was a staggering $195 billion. The company has been able to reignite revenue growth in the last few quarters. The YoY revenue growth hit a bottom of 15% in June 2022. Since then the YoY revenue growth has picked up again as the company faces easier comps. In the recent quarter, the company reported YoY revenue growth of over 30% which is quite high when we consider that the GMV base of Shopify is more than $200 billion. The revenue growth will not build a bullish momentum for the stock unless the company can deliver sustainable profitability. During the pandemic years, Shopify’s revenue growth and high EPS helped the stock reach its peak. The company would need to focus on profitability in the next few quarters in order to rebuild a long-term bullish rally. Shopify has divested from its logistics business which should help improve the bottom line. We should also see better monetization of current services as the company tries to build new AI tools. The EPS estimates for 2 fiscal years ahead have steadily improved in the last few quarters. According to current consensus, Shopify should be able to deliver EPS of $1 in fiscal year 2025. However, it is highly likely that Shopify will beat these estimates as the company launches new initiatives to improve monetization of its massive GMV base. Shopify’s trailing twelve months EPS during the peak of the pandemic went to $2.6. If the company can get close to this EPS rate by 2025, we should see a significant bullish run in the stock. The recent cost-cutting should also help the company improve the bottom line. We have seen a similar trend in all the Big Tech companies who have reported a rapid growth in EPS as their headcount was reduced. While most analysts agree over the long-term revenue growth potential of Shopify, some of them are wary of the pricey valuation of the stock. Shopify is trading at 12 times its PS ratio. This is quite high when we compare with most of the other tech players and even Shopify’s peer like Wix (WIX), Etsy (ETSY), and others. However, it should be noted that Shopify’s PS ratio is significantly lower than the average PS multiple prior to the pandemic when the stock had an average PS ratio of over 20. Shopify’s revenue estimates for 2 fiscal years ahead is close to $10 billion which is equal to annualized revenue growth of over 25%. If we look at this metric, Shopify stock is trading at 7 times the revenue estimate of fiscal year 2025. This looks reasonable if the company can also manage to improve its EPS trend over the next few years. The long-term tailwind from ecommerce growth is still very strong. Shopify will benefit from an increase in GMV and a higher ecommerce market share in key markets. This should help the company gain pricing leverage over other competitors and also improve its monetization momentum Shopify has reported a faster revenue growth rate compared to its GMV growth in the last few years. This shows that the company is able to charge higher rate for additional services. There has been an acceleration in revenue growth over the last few quarters. Shopify has also divested from logistics services which were pulling down the profitability of the company. Shopify could deliver over 20% YoY revenue growth for the next few years as the company gains from strong tailwinds within the ecommerce business. If Shopify regains its earlier ttm EPS of $2 by 2025, we could see a strong bull run within the stock. While the stock is not cheap, it seems to be reasonably valued and longer-term investors could gain a better return from Shopify, making the stock a Buy at current price.
NYSE:SHOPLong
by moonypto
2
Will Santa deliver, or will the buck ram it down?CAPITALCOM:SHOP delivered a strong earnings report recently, key points being: - Strong revenue growth of 26% YoY - Improved free cash flow margin, up to 19% from 16% - Operating income more than doubled YoY On the flip side: - High operational spending - Increase in loan and transaction losses, indicating rising credit risk - Macroeconomic risks Heading into Christmas shopping, SHOP is well positioned. Spending this season is expected to rise 7% compared to 2023, and more people are buying early, leading to more consistent sales. Online shopping is expected to rise once again this year, benefiting SHOP. Obstacles are higher prices, and the outlook of even higher prices to come. The economic plans of the president-elect will without a shed of doubt lead to rising inflation, and many will plan accordingly. However, I believe the upside is greater on the semi-short time, which will help push SHOP share price further. The gap following the earnings release was big, and we might see a pullback short term, so I would hold going long until that gap is resolved. I don’t expect the gap to be filled, but a retrace must be expected. The most recent high above today’s price is from November 2021, so that is not relevant, so no target. There are no obvious support or resistance levels, as price has been pretty flat for ages. Watch for pullbacks, then do your own DD.
NYSE:SHOPLong
by WeRideAtDawn
Shopify: Strong Growth Ahead, Targets Set for Next WeekRecent Performance: Shopify has recently demonstrated a remarkable upswing, with a nearly 25% increase following impressive third-quarter results. This performance, marked by exceeding market expectations, signals optimistic sentiment and highlights Shopify's pivotal role in the evolving e-commerce landscape as consumer behaviors shift towards online shopping. - Key Insights: Analysts emphasize the urgency for traditional retailers to adopt online strategies due to declining foot traffic in shopping malls. Shopify is positioned as a leader in facilitating this transition, capitalizing on the growing demand for e-commerce solutions. The emphasis on agility and innovation reflects the necessity for businesses to meet changing consumer expectations. - Expert Analysis: Market sentiment regarding Shopify is notably favorable, driven by recognition of its capabilities to help businesses transition to online sales amid a challenging retail environment. Experts suggest that as retail dynamics continue to transform, Shopify's growth potential remains robust, with a keen focus on adapting to external economic pressures such as tariffs that may influence consumer behavior. - Price Targets: Based on professional insights, the next week targets for Shopify are set for: - T1: 123.00 - T2: 130.00 - Stop levels are structured as follows: - S1: 110.00 - S2: 105.00 This structure reinforces a potential bullish outlook, with significant support below the current price and realistic upside targets within a 3%-10% range. - News Impact: The current landscape for retail is shifting significantly, with a decline in traditional mall shopping contributing to increased opportunities for e-commerce platforms like Shopify. This trend is further amplified by discussions about potential tariff impacts on retail and consumer behavior, indicating that companies must adapt swiftly. Shopify's strategic positioning in this market evolution offers a resilient avenue for growth as it navigates these changing dynamics.
NYSE:SHOPLong
by CrowdWisdomTrading