GER30 Bullish..Index is in a bullish trend. Long positions should be considered. Scale down to lower timeframes for better entries. Enjoy..
GER40 trade ideas
2024-07-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bears got follow through down to 18600 where Bulls were eager to buy and not wait for the market to hit the daily 20ema or the bull trend line. That’s strength by the bulls. My target was 18570 and we got 18590, that’s decent enough. The buying in the US session was still surprising to me but then I guess it’s up again. Last stand for the bears is 18740ish where the weekly 50% pullback is but I doubt it can hold.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the daily chart - technically bears traded back into the triangle)
key levels: small range 18600 / 18900
bull case: Bulls bought the double bottom 18600 above the bull channel support line and now they want back up above 18800 and print a new ath. The broad bull channel leads exactly to the ath and leg1 and leg2 were 630 and 550 points big. If we get 500 points up, that would lead us to 19100.
Invalidation is below 18600.
bear case: Bears failed at 18600 and now odds favor the bulls to get back above 18800 again. Can the 50% pb at 18740 or the broken triangle bear trend line act as resistance? I highly doubt that. Got nothing for the bears here.
Invalidation is above 18750.
short term: Bullish if we stay above 18600 for at least 18800 but probably higher.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. —unchanged
trade of the day: Again buying a double bottom at big support on the 1h tf. Bar 8 + 14. Both had bigger tails below and market found not enough sellers below 18600. Had to get long latest bar 17. Buying bar 16 was tough because you would have bought right under the 1h 20ema and previous resistance. Any long below 18600 was king.
DE40 breakout to ATH imminent There is a breakout imminent on this index as sentiment switches to near short term greed. The playout is purely fundamental. A break towards 19000 is very likely.
DE40 breakout to ATH imminent There is a breakout imminent on this index as sentiment switches to near short term greed. The playout is purely fundamental. A break towards 19000 is very likely.
dax40We support the German index purchase, and we have set the targets and are waiting for them to reach the targets
DAX going to test a monthly tls originated in March'2000DAX is following the monthly triangle pattern now going to test the higher pattern linen(Tl) so a resistance level for the time being, it depends upon how market reacts here as it is a rising tl ( dynamic) so new and higher level every month
will post possible monthly and weekly levels in the comment section
2024-07-15 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Strong day by the bears which was just a healthy pullback on a higher time frame. For bears to do some actual damage they need to print strongly below 18670 again. A measured move down would lead to 18570ish. Since bulls and bears have valid arguments here, I expect more sideways movement until we get another breakout above or below. No opinion on who wins it. Bullish above 18800, bearish below 18670.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the daily chart - technically bears traded back into the triangle)
key levels: small range 18500 / 18900
bull case: Bulls see today as a pullback to the 4h 20ema and want to print a new ath while they have the momentum and trading above the higher tf ema. They also closed the market above the breakout price 18722, which confirms the bullishness, if we rally from here again.
Invalidation is below 18670.
bear case: In my weekly post I wrote that buying above 18800 is bad not matter how you look at it and bulls got another big rejection. The market now has formed a broad bull channel where the support line is around 18530, so another 170 points lower and coincidentally it’s also where the daily 20ema is. Enough reasons to have a stronger argument for another leg down by the bears.
Invalidation is above 18800.
short term: Bearish until we hit the daily ema or at least 18570. Invalid above 18800 or strong close above the 1h 20ema.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced.
trade of the day: buying the double bottom with y close
Weekly Technical AnalysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
*KEY
Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP over 50 periods
Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level (above or below)
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
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Analysis
Germany 40 is pushing the upper boundary of its sideways trend, having broken out of a tight sideways consolidation, with the price increasing to 18,710, now above the VWAP of 18,349. Support and resistance levels have adjusted to 17,976 and 18,711, respectively. The RSI has increased to 61, indicating rising momentum.
UK 100 remains in a neutral sideways trend, with the price stuck in the middle of a tight range, just above the VWAP of 8,207. Support has adjusted to 8,129, while resistance has increased to 8,285. The RSI is at 52, reflecting a slight increase in momentum.
Wall Street has entered a new bullish trend and remains below the May peak, with the price recently increasing to 40,156, now above the VWAP of 39,379. Support and resistance levels have adjusted to 38,697 and 40,061, respectively. The RSI has increased to 75, signaling strong bullish momentum compared to the previous report.
Brent Crude remains in a bullish trend and continues in an impulsive phase albeit with a downturn in the last few days to just above the VWAP of 85.33. Support has adjusted higher to 83.39, while resistance has increased to 87.27. The RSI has turned lower to 47, indicating a lack of strong bullish momentum.
Gold remains in a sideways trend but has just broken the June peak, with the price recently increasing to 2,409, now around the previous VWAP of 2,354. Support has adjusted higher to 2,282, while resistance has increased to 2,426. The RSI has strengthened to 63, indicating the potential beginnings of a new period of higher momentum.
EUR/USD has broken out from its previous downtrend but the new uptrend needs to take out the June high to be sustainable. It is now well above the VWAP of 1.0783. Support has adjusted higher to 1.0637, while resistance has increased to 1.0929. The RSI has increased to 67, indicating a reduction in bearish pressure.
GBP/USD remains officially in a neutral trend but the recent breakout suggests a new uptrend is emerging, with the price increasing to 1.29862, well above the VWAP of 1.2760. Support has adjusted upwards to 1.2514, and resistance has increased to 1.3006. The RSI has increased to 74, indicating fresh bullish momentum to sustain a possible new uptrend.
USD/JPY remains in a bullish trend and near multi-decade highs and remains within a corrective phase just above the VWAP, with the price near 157.81. Support has adjusted higher to 157.80, while resistance has increased to 162.70. The RSI has decreased to 38, reflecting a reduction in bullish momentum compared to the previous report.
DAX - 15 JUL 2024 - 15M (LONG)4HR 7 ZONE TOUCH HAS BEEN HIT
Taking Agressive Long on 15min.
Will update entry once confirmed.
DAX Sell opportunity at the top of this pattern.DAX (FDAX1!) has been following our May 17 (see chart below) projected path very closely and as mentioned, it has been a repeat of the May - July 2023 Megaphone consolidation so far:
The price is back above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again and we have adjusted the Megaphone to the wider price-action that was given, in contrast to the 2023 one. As a result, we are expecting the index to get rejected around the top of the Megaphone and the long-term Channel Up.
That will be our next short-term sell opportunity, targeting 18000 (the June 14 Low), which by the time of the rejection should be very close to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), the untested long-term Support level since November 15 2023.
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#202429 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
Quote from last week:
comment: We got the breakout to the upside, then the downside and another upside breakout again. Clearly not the continuation of a strong bull trend but a leg inside the trading range. Friday’s bull bar is a bad buy going into next week, which raises the odds of market moving sideways to down. Two bull wedges on the daily chart and I slightly favor the bears to break to the downside at least to the daily ema 18460. Weekly tf gives head & shoulders vibe but as long as market is staying above the weekly 20ema at 18200, it’s neutral inside the given key level.
comment: Big down, bigger up. Again. High was high enough to qualify as another double top but the high also undershot the bull wedge resistance line. Bulls have not been able to print more then 3 consecutive bull bars since May. Why would they now? Bulls bought dips and I doubt they want to buy above 18800 all of a sudden. Odds favor the bears to trade to the bull channel support around 18500 over the next 1-2 days.
current market cycle: trading range - go look at the monthly chart. It’s a clear 4 month trading range. —unchanged
key levels: small range 18500 / 18900
bull case:
Bulls want to stay inside the bull wedges and break above them to retest the ath 19006. They are making higher highs and higher lows and are above all important ema.
Above is from last Sunday and still valid. As long as bulls trade above the daily 20ema and inside the bull channel/exp triangle/wedge (yes all apply), it’s bullish. Problem with the bull case is, do you really want to buy above 18800? Market knows only rejections above this price so no matter how you put it, new longs here are bad. Can you buy intraday dips at support for scalps? Absolutely.
Invalidation is below 18360.
bear case: Bears are at the exact same spot as last Sunday but just a tat higher. They want a big reversal again at multiple resistance above 18800. They also see all the rejections from the past months at this level and shorting here has been very profitable. They also know it’s a bad buy for the bulls up here. Odds clearly favor them to trade back to at least 18600 but we will probably see 18500 early next week.
Invalidation is above 18900. Market was rejected twice here on Friday and reversed. Bears do not want to see the market testing that price again or they will probably give up.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral. Higher highs, lower lows. Expanding triangle, form of trading range. 50% pb is 18439 and if bulls do not rally strongly on Monday, I will look for weakness and a pullback to 18450 or lower.
→ Last Sunday we traded 18666 and now we are at 18857. High of the week was 18927 and the low was 18362. Outlook was ok. I said we test back down and we did even 100 points lower than I thought. Also said bulls were in control above all ema. I absolutely did not think bulls can do 18900+ again but here we are.
short term: Bearish at least to 18500. It’s 50/50 if bulls can do a higher high or will only print lower highs from here so I’m not into guessing. Looking for early weakness and then at 18500 absolutely neutral and let the market decide where it wants to go next. Any bad Dax earnings next week will probably flush it below 18500 again.
medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again. —unchanged
current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced.
Chart update: Nope.
DAX LOCAL PULLBACK AHEAD|SHORT|
✅DAX is going up now
But a strong resistance level is ahead at 18,900
Thus I am expecting a pullback
And a move down towards the target at 18,700
SHORT🔥
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DAX - OUTLOOK 13 JUL 2024Monthly 2022 High Broken
Price In Weekly Trendline Range Moving Upside
Daily Forming A Series Of Higher Highs And Higher Lows.
April 2024 To Present Has Been Some Sort Of Range On Daily Demand Zone And 4Hr Supply Zone
4Hr Trendline Upwards (2 Touch Holding)
4Hr Channel Also Approaching 4Hr Supply
4Hr Support Now Resistance Count A Total Of 7 Touches. Very Strong Support.
Dax Is Bullish On Higher Timeframes So Primarily Looking For Bullish Positions Only
Scenario One - Price Touches 4Hr Supply =
Looking For Aggressive Short Into Our 4H (7 Touch Support)
1Hr Short = Aggressive
15M Short = Very Aggressive.
Scenario Two - Price Breaks Through 4Hr Supply And Re-Test
= Load Up And Enter Buy Position Swing Trade Targeting The Top Of The Weekly Trendline
1Hr Long = Conservative
15M Long = Aggressive
DAX Resistance Ahead! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
DAX keeps growing but
The index is locally overbought
So after the retest of the
Horizontal resistance
Of 18,887 we will be
Expecting a local
Bearish correction
Sell!
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DAX H4 | Approaching multi-swing-high resistanceDAX (GER30) is rising towards a multi-swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 18,636.87 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
Stop loss is at 18,800.00 which is a level that sits above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level and a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 18,440.29 which is a pullback support.
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DAX boosted by strong resultsThe German stock market closed with gains on Thursday with +0.72% and has continued its opening with +0.3%. The best stock of yesterday's session was Sartorius AG VZO ON which reached €243.40/ac. at the close, followed by RWE AG ST ON €34.03/ac. and Vovonia SE €29.19/ac. The worst performers were Airbus Group SE closing at €131.96, Deutsche Bank AG NA ON at €15.32/ac. MTU Aero Engines NA ON €245.02. Overall the bullish stocks played a predominant role outperforming the bearish ones 388 to 214, closing 31 unchanged. The variation since January 1 is +10.99% and for now industrials, technology, consumer cyclicals, healthcare, financials, commodities are in positive, while non-cyclicals, real estate, energy, utilities are down.
If we look at the ECB's interest in trying to relax rate policies this has been clearly reflected in the DAX (Ticker AT: Ger40) the biggest beneficiary of such policies in Europe. On the chart we can currently see a progressive climb since June 14 in the index looking for a recovery towards the highs. The range trend taken since the beginning of the year continues to be respected. It remains to be seen whether monetary policy will be supportive after the summer, but for the time being the Frankfurt spread is in the 18,600 point zone and with a trading bell shape that heavily weights the 18,000 point zone and an RSI with buy exhaustion signals at 72.20%. It would not be unusual to see a return to the mean before the end of the summer.
Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst
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